Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

ETSU def. Furman 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: ETSU 69.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

ETSU beat visiting Furman 3-1 (25-21, 19-25, 25-16, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. ETSU's Makayla Bays led with 14 kills.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
FURMAN212516211
ETSU251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 1–6 in the third, ETSU took the set and then the match.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are ETSU's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. ETSU went in as RallyIQ's 70% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Furman 0–1 ETSU

    Down 0–1, Furman scored 6 straight to lead 6–1. The match swung to Furman.

    ETSU 68% → 49%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Furman 18–18 ETSU

    From 18–18, ETSU had 5 straight kills to lead 23–18.

    ETSU 83% → 99%

ETSU above 50Furman belowMax swing 4.8%

FurmanETSU

Sideout %
Furman 50.5·ETSU 57.1
Break %
Furman 42.9·ETSU 49.5
Hitting
Furman .181·ETSU .217
Longest run
Furman 6·ETSU 5

Karis Chatfield
3 kills inside the turning points, 11 K and .167 for the match (14 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

ETSU above 50 · Furman below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.8% ETSUrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.8% to ETSU — set 4, FURMAN 18-20 ETSU. Kill by Raegan Waller. ETSU win probability 86% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FURMAN 35.4%64.6% ETSU

Furman wins

3-0
7.3%
3-1
12.7%
3-2
15.4%

ETSU wins

3-0
19.8%
3-1
24.7%
3-2
20.1%
FURMAN break %
41.5% vs this opp
ETSU break %
44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Raegan WallerKill+4.8%

    Kill by Raegan Waller

    Set 4 · FURMAN 18-20 ETSU · ETSU 86% → 91%

  2. 02

    Ace by Kennedy Seekford on Melanie Morris

    Set 4 · FURMAN 18-18 ETSU · FURMAN 12% → 17%

  3. 03
    Sophia DavisKill+4.3%

    Kill by Sophia Davis (set by Melanie Morris)

    Set 1 · FURMAN 18-19 ETSU · ETSU 67% → 71%

  4. 04
    Karis ChatfieldAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Karis Chatfield

    Set 1 · FURMAN 18-17 ETSU · FURMAN 32% → 36%

  5. 05
    Gianna BlairKill+4.0%

    Kill by Gianna Blair (set by Bailey Gohlke)

    Set 1 · FURMAN 18-20 ETSU · ETSU 71% → 75%

  6. 06

    Kill by Karis Chatfield (set by Kennedy Boatman)

    Set 4 · FURMAN 18-21 ETSU · ETSU 91% → 95%

  7. 07
    Bailey GohlkeBad set+3.8%

    Bad set by Bailey Gohlke

    Set 4 · FURMAN 14-14 ETSU · FURMAN 13% → 17%

  8. 08
    Makayla BaysAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Makayla Bays

    Set 4 · FURMAN 17-18 ETSU · FURMAN 9% → 12%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Furmanaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410319.3680125014314
411434.20600040010.511.5
49735.0570014004211
48213.462000100219
46436.05631293111.58.5
4416.50032001800004
4000–3211710002
4011-1.000202910000
4000–3001230000
Team totals4822144.18143487911212883
ETSUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414446.21732220104218
411630.16713114000014
49423.2170001002110
46015.40002320031.59.5
45218.16700010132.57.5
3000–811100001
4000–5222020002
4000–1811500001
36114.357000200006
3000–000000000
22211.000100200002
2000–1500100000
2000–000000000
Team totals5319157.217511110694112794

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Furman vs ETSU

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 FURMAN · ETSU 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 6 FURMANETSU 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 FURMANETSU 3

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 6 FURMANETSU 5

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 FURMANETSU 5

Bars above the line = ETSU leads, below = Furman leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Furman

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
27%3/11
2
45%9/20
53%10/19
3
53%8/15
40%6/15
4
47%7/15
27%3/11
5
54%7/13
13%1/8
6
67%6/9
65%13/20
All
51%47/93
43%36/84

ETSU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
33%4/12
2
60%9/15
59%13/22
3
53%9/17
40%6/15
4
100%7/7
53%8/15
5
44%7/16
50%7/14
6
54%7/13
53%8/15
All
57%48/84
49%46/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#FURMAN-ETSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1FURMANETSU×5Attack errIzzy Castelloe+1.5
20-2ETSUETSU×5Attack errIzzy Castelloe+2.0
30-3ETSUETSU×5KillElizabeth Aylwardset Ashley Stein+1.9
40-4ETSUETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Alex Kreutzmann+1.7
50-5ETSUETSU×5KillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+1.4
61-5ETSUFURMANAttack errKaris Chatfield+1.0
71-6FURMANETSUKillRaegan Wallerset Alex Kreutzmann+1.1
82-6ETSUFURMAN×5KillIzzy Castelloeset Kennedy Seekford+1.0
93-6FURMANFURMAN×5Attack errElizabeth Aylward+1.6
104-6FURMANFURMAN×5Attack errElizabeth Aylward+1.9
115-6FURMANFURMAN×5KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
126-6FURMANFURMAN×5BlockedGianna Blairblk Kacie Moore+2.4
136-7FURMANETSUServe errKennedy Seekford+1.8
147-7ETSUFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Bailey Gohlke+1.9
157-8FURMANETSU×3KillGianna Blairset Bailey Gohlke+1.8
167-9ETSUETSU×3KillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+2.4
177-10ETSUETSU×3AceKaris Chatfieldaced Brooke Scheffler+2.2
188-10ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Brooke Scheffler+1.5
198-11FURMANETSUServe errAshley Stein+1.6
209-11ETSUFURMAN×6KillMorgan Baldridgeset Ashley Stein+1.6
2110-11FURMANFURMAN×6Attack errSophia Davis+2.5
2211-11FURMANFURMAN×6AceKacie Mooreaced Melanie Morris+2.8
2312-11FURMANFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Brooke Scheffler+3.1
2413-11FURMANFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+3.3
2514-11FURMANFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+3.2
2614-12FURMANETSUKillSophia Davisset Bailey Gohlke+2.0
2715-12ETSUFURMANServe errAlex Kreutzmann+2.5
2815-13FURMANETSU×4KillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+2.1
2915-14ETSUETSU×4AceMakayla Bays+3.2
3015-15ETSUETSU×4Attack errIzzy Castelloe+3.5
3115-16ETSUETSU×4AceMakayla Baysaced Ashley Stein+3.5
3216-16ETSUFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.6
3316-17FURMANETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Makayla Bays+2.7
3417-17ETSUFURMANServe errRaegan Waller+2.8
3518-17FURMANFURMANAttack errKaris Chatfield+4.2
3618-18FURMANETSU×4KillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+3.0
3718-19ETSUETSU×4KillSophia Davisset Melanie Morris+4.3
3818-20ETSUETSU×4KillGianna Blairset Bailey Gohlke+4.0
3918-21ETSUETSU×4AceBailey Gohlkeaced Ashley Stein+3.3
4019-21ETSUFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.8
4119-22FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+2.5
4220-22ETSUFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
4320-23FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Sophia Davis+2.6
4420-24ETSUETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.9
4521-24ETSUFURMANServe errMelanie Morris+0.4
4621-25FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.0
Set 2
10-1ETSUETSU×3AceAlex Kreutzmannaced Ashtan Dodson+1.8
20-2ETSUETSU×3KillMakayla Baysset Melanie Morris+1.7
30-3ETSUETSU×3Attack errIzzy Castelloe+1.5
41-3ETSUFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
52-3FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Alex Kreutzmann+1.7
62-4FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Alex Kreutzmann+1.3
73-4ETSUFURMANServe errMakayla Bays+1.3
83-5FURMANETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Karis Chatfield+1.3
93-6ETSUETSUAceRaegan Waller+1.6
104-6ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
115-6FURMANFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.8
125-7FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Alex Kreutzmann+1.4
135-8ETSUETSUAttack errAmber Watson+1.7
146-8ETSUFURMANServe errBailey Gohlke+1.2
156-9FURMANETSUKillGianna Blairset Bailey Gohlke+1.3
167-9ETSUFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
178-9FURMANFURMAN×6KillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+1.9
189-9FURMANFURMAN×6BlockedSophia Davisblk Amber Watson, Tennyson Gorman+2.2
1910-9FURMANFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.4
2011-9FURMANFURMAN×6KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.5
2112-9FURMANFURMAN×6KillIzzy Castelloeset Kennedy Seekford+2.5
2212-10FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Melanie Morris+1.6
2313-10ETSUFURMANServe errMelanie Morris+1.9
2414-10FURMANFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.4
2514-11FURMANETSUKillChloe Smithset Bailey Gohlke+1.4
2615-11ETSUFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+1.8
2716-11FURMANFURMANAttack errElizabeth Aylward+2.1
2816-12FURMANETSUAttack errAshley Stein+1.1
2917-12ETSUFURMANBlockedMakayla Baysblk Kacie Moore, Izzy Castelloe+1.6
3017-13FURMANETSUServe errIzzy Castelloe+1.1
3118-13ETSUFURMANBad setAlex Kreutzmann+1.6
3219-13FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.6
3319-14FURMANETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+0.7
3420-14ETSUFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
3520-15FURMANETSUKillGianna Blairset Bailey Gohlke+0.6
3621-15ETSUFURMAN×3Serve errKaris Chatfield+1.0
3722-15FURMANFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
3823-15FURMANFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.3
3923-16FURMANETSU×3KillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+0.1
4023-17ETSUETSU×3BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Makayla Bays, Raegan Waller+0.2
4123-18ETSUETSU×3BlockedAmber Watsonblk Makayla Bays, Raegan Waller+0.3
4224-18ETSUFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Ashley Stein+0.5
4324-19FURMANETSUKillChloe Smithset Melanie Morris+0.1
4425-19ETSUFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+0.2
Set 3
10-1FURMANETSUServe errAshtan Dodson+2.2
21-1ETSUFURMAN×6BlockedKaris Chatfieldblk Tennyson Gorman, Izzy Castelloe+2.3
32-1FURMANFURMAN×6KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+3.3
43-1FURMANFURMAN×6KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+3.4
54-1FURMANFURMAN×6BlockedElizabeth Aylwardblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+3.5
65-1FURMANFURMAN×6BlockedKaris Chatfieldblk Kacie Moore, Izzy Castelloe+3.4
76-1FURMANFURMAN×6AceKennedy Seekfordaced Makayla Bays+3.2
86-2FURMANETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+2.0
96-3ETSUETSU×5KillElizabeth Aylwardset Makayla Bays+3.0
106-4ETSUETSU×5AceRaegan Walleraced Ashley Stein+3.3
116-5ETSUETSU×5BlockedAshley Steinblk Elizabeth Aylward, Gianna Blair+3.5
126-6ETSUETSU×5BlockedAshley Steinblk Elizabeth Aylward, Gianna Blair+3.5
137-6ETSUFURMANServe errRaegan Waller+2.8
147-7FURMANETSU×3KillElizabeth Aylwardset Kennedy Boatman+2.6
157-8ETSUETSU×3Attack errKacie Moore+3.6
167-9ETSUETSU×3KillChloe Smithset Melanie Morris+3.4
178-9ETSUFURMANAttack errGianna Blair+2.5
188-10FURMANETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+2.5
198-11ETSUETSU×5BlockedMorgan Baldridgeblk Gianna Blair+3.2
208-12ETSUETSU×5AceKaris Chatfieldaced Brooke Scheffler+2.7
218-13ETSUETSU×5Attack errAmber Watson+2.2
228-14ETSUETSU×5BlockedKacie Mooreblk Makayla Bays, Gianna Blair+1.7
239-14ETSUFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Ashley Stein+1.0
2410-14FURMANFURMANAttack errMakayla Bays+1.8
2510-15FURMANETSU×5Serve errKacie Moore+1.6
2610-16ETSUETSU×5KillChloe Smithset Bailey Gohlke+1.7
2710-17ETSUETSU×5KillChloe Smithset Bailey Gohlke+1.1
2810-18ETSUETSU×5BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Makayla Bays, Raegan Waller+0.7
2910-19ETSUETSU×5AceMelanie Morris+0.4
3011-19ETSUFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+0.1
3111-20FURMANETSUKillChloe Smithset Bailey Gohlke+0.2
3212-20ETSUFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Ashtan Dodson+0.1
3313-20FURMANFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.3
3414-20FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedMakayla Baysblk Ashley Stein+0.5
3514-21FURMANETSUKillRaegan Wallerset Kennedy Boatman+0.6
3615-21ETSUFURMANServe errMakayla Bays+0.3
3715-22FURMANETSUKillRaegan Wallerset Kennedy Boatman+0.5
3815-23ETSUETSUAttack errIzzy Castelloe+0.2
3916-23ETSUFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge·
4016-24FURMANETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+0.1
4116-25ETSUETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke·
Set 4
11-0ETSUFURMANAttack errKaris Chatfield+2.0
22-0FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Kennedy Seekford+2.8
32-1FURMANETSUAttack errIzzy Castelloe+2.0
42-2ETSUETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Kennedy Boatman+2.7
53-2ETSUFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+2.1
63-3FURMANETSUKillRaegan Wallerset Kennedy Boatman+2.0
74-3ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
85-3FURMANFURMANAceAshley Stein+3.1
95-4FURMANETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+2.1
105-5ETSUETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+2.9
116-5ETSUFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Ashley Stein+2.3
126-6FURMANETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+2.2
137-6ETSUFURMANAttack errChloe Smith+2.4
147-7FURMANETSUAttack errIzzy Castelloe+2.2
158-7ETSUFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.4
168-8FURMANETSUAttack errAshtan Dodson+2.3
179-8ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+2.5
189-9FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Kennedy Boatman+2.4
199-10ETSUETSUAttack errKacie Moore+3.3
2010-10ETSUFURMANBlockedKaris Chatfieldblk Izzy Castelloe, Kacie Moore+2.5
2110-11FURMANETSUKillRaegan Wallerset Kennedy Boatman+2.4
2211-11ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+2.5
2311-12FURMANETSUServe errAshley Stein+2.5
2412-12ETSUFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.6
2512-13FURMANETSUServe errKacie Moore+2.6
2612-14ETSUETSUAceKaris Chatfieldaced Brooke Scheffler+3.4
2713-14ETSUFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Kennedy Seekford+2.4
2814-14FURMANFURMANBad setBailey Gohlke+3.8
2914-15FURMANETSUAttack errAmber Watson+2.9
3014-16ETSUETSUAceMelanie Morrisaced Kennedy Seekford+3.8
3115-16ETSUFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.6
3215-17FURMANETSUServe errAshtan Dodson+2.9
3315-18ETSUETSUAttack errAshley Stein+3.4
3416-18ETSUFURMAN×3KillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.1
3517-18FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errMakayla Bays+3.8
3618-18FURMANFURMAN×3AceKennedy Seekfordaced Melanie Morris+4.8
3718-19FURMANETSU×5KillElizabeth Aylwardset Kennedy Boatman+3.7
3818-20ETSUETSU×5KillRaegan Waller+4.8
3918-21ETSUETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+3.9
4018-22ETSUETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+2.7
4118-23ETSUETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Makayla Bays+1.5
4219-23ETSUFURMANKillAshley Steinset Ashtan Dodson+0.4
4320-23FURMANFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Brooke Scheffler+1.2
4420-24FURMANETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Kennedy Boatman+1.7
4521-24ETSUFURMANServe errRaegan Waller+0.5
4621-25FURMANETSUKillMakayla Baysset Kennedy Boatman+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Furman first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).