Furman vs ETSU Volleyball: Furman Wins 3-0 (Oct 24, 2026)

FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: ETSU 70.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Furman won at ETSU 3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 28-26) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Furman's Izzy Castelloe led with 16 kills, and Kennedy Seekford added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:10 PM CT · final Oct 24

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FURMAN	25	25	28	3
ETSU	21	23	26	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Furman, a 29% pick, over ETSU.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Furman's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had ETSU at 71% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · Furman 5–8 ETSU
Furman scored 5 straight to turn a 5–8 deficit into a 10–8 lead. The match swung to Furman.
Furman 43% → 58%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · Furman 22–22 ETSU
Furman won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–0.
Furman 52% → 77%
Turning point 3: Set 3 · Furman 25–25 ETSU
3 of the last 4 rallies went to Furman, enough to take the set 28–26 and win the match 3–0.
Furman 81% → >99%

ETSU above 50Furman belowMax swing 13.2%

FurmanETSU

Sideout %: Furman 63.4·ETSU 57.1
Break %: Furman 42.9·ETSU 36.6
Hitting: Furman .235·ETSU .131
Longest run: Furman 5·ETSU 5

Amber Watson
8 kills on .074, 8.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

ETSU above 50 · Furman below

Biggest swing: 13.2% to Furman — set 2, FURMAN 25-23 ETSU. Karis Chatfield stuffed by Kacie Moore & Morgan Baldridge. ETSU win probability 36% → 23%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FURMAN 35.4%64.6% ETSU

Furman wins

3-0

7.3%

3-1

12.7%

3-2

15.4%

ETSU wins

3-0

19.8%

3-1

24.7%

3-2

20.1%

FURMAN break %: 41.5% vs this opp
ETSU break %: 44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kacie Moore&Morgan BaldridgeBlock+13.2%
Karis Chatfield stuffed by Kacie Moore & Morgan Baldridge
Set 2 · FURMAN 25-23 ETSU · FURMAN 64% → 77%
02
Ashley SteinKill+12.0%
Kill by Ashley Stein (set by Morgan Baldridge)
Set 2 · FURMAN 24-23 ETSU · FURMAN 52% → 64%
03
Izzy CastelloeKill+11.0%
Kill by Izzy Castelloe (set by Morgan Baldridge)
Set 3 · FURMAN 28-26 ETSU · FURMAN 89% → 100%
04
Kacie MooreAce+10.0%
Ace by Kacie Moore
Set 3 · FURMAN 25-24 ETSU · FURMAN 79% → 89%
05
Kacie MooreService error+7.6%
Service error by Kacie Moore
Set 3 · FURMAN 25-25 ETSU · ETSU 11% → 19%
06
Tennyson GormanKill+7.6%
Kill by Tennyson Gorman (set by Morgan Baldridge)
Set 3 · FURMAN 26-25 ETSU · FURMAN 81% → 89%
07
Makayla BaysKill+7.6%
Kill by Makayla Bays (set by Kennedy Boatman)
Set 3 · FURMAN 26-26 ETSU · ETSU 11% → 19%
08
Amber WatsonKill+7.6%
Kill by Amber Watson (set by Morgan Baldridge)
Set 3 · FURMAN 27-26 ETSU · FURMAN 81% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Furmanaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Izzy CastelloeOH	3	16	7	32	.281	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	18
1Kacie MooreMB	3	11	1	18	.556	1	2	4	4	0	1	3	2.5	15.5
20Tennyson GormanMB	3	5	0	17	.294	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
12Ashley SteinOH	3	4	1	20	.150	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	1	5
4Morgan BaldridgeS	3	1	1	3	.000	35	0	1	13	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
13Ashtan DodsonOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
15Amber WatsonOH	3	8	6	27	.074	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
6Brooke SchefflerOPP	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
2Kennedy SeekfordL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	14	2	0	0	0	0
10Tiffany HelmerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	17	119	.235	43	2	7	61	3	1	18	10	78

ETSUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Makayla BaysOH	3	10	11	38	-.026	0	1	2	8	0	1	0.5	11.5
15Karis ChatfieldOH	3	9	6	30	.100	1	1	1	12	0	1	0.5	10.5
20Elizabeth AylwardOH	3	6	0	21	.286	0	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Raegan WallerMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Gianna BlairMB	3	2	2	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
9Kennedy BoatmanS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	3	5	0	0	0	0
6Chloe SmithOH	3	9	4	28	.179	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	10
17Bailey GohlkeS	3	1	0	2	.500	18	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	1.5
11Melanie MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	14	1	0	0	1
13Zeynep ÖzerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Ryan JomoL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	23	137	.131	39	3	7	50	2	10	5	70

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Furman vs ETSU

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 23, 2026Furman at ETSU · ETSU won 3-1Result →
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Furman at ETSU · Furman won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 FURMAN · ETSU 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 5 FURMANETSU 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 FURMANETSU 5

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 FURMANETSU 3

Bars above the line = ETSU leads, below = Furman leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Furman

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%8/16
2	62%8/13	47%7/15
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	70%7/10	22%2/9
5	50%7/14	56%9/16
6	64%7/11	22%2/9
All	63%45/71	43%33/77

ETSU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	27%3/11
2	44%7/16	44%7/16
3	78%7/9	22%2/9
4	54%7/13	30%3/10
5	54%7/13	30%3/10
6	70%7/10	53%8/15
All	57%44/77	37%26/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

148 rallies

#	FURMAN-ETSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.5
2	0-2	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
3	1-2	ETSU	FURMAN×5	Kill	Tennyson Gorman	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.5
4	2-2	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+2.2
5	3-2	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+2.3
6	4-2	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Attack err	Gianna Blair		+2.4
7	5-2	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Izzy Castelloe, Ashley Stein	+2.5
8	5-3	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.7
9	6-3	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.9
10	6-4	FURMAN	ETSU	Attack err	Ashley Stein		+1.7
11	7-4	ETSU	FURMAN	Bad set	Bailey Gohlke		+2.0
12	7-5	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.7
13	8-5	ETSU	FURMAN	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+2.0
14	9-5	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Tennyson Gorman	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.6
15	9-6	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Furman		+1.6
16	9-7	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Amber Watson	blk Chloe Smith, Bailey Gohlke	+2.5
17	10-7	ETSU	FURMAN	Blocked	Makayla Bays	blk Morgan Baldridge, Tennyson Gorman	+2.1
18	11-7	FURMAN	FURMAN	Blocked	Makayla Bays	blk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman	+2.7
19	11-8	FURMAN	ETSU×3	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.7
20	11-9	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+2.6
21	11-10	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Amber Watson		+2.8
22	12-10	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+2.3
23	12-11	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.1
24	13-11	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	ETSU		+2.4
25	13-12	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.2
26	14-12	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.5
27	15-12	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.3
28	15-13	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Furman		+2.1
29	16-13	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	ETSU		+2.6
30	17-13	FURMAN	FURMAN	Attack err	Chloe Smith		+3.1
31	17-14	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.8
32	17-15	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Amber Watson		+2.9
33	18-15	ETSU	FURMAN×3	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.8
34	19-15	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Morgan Baldridge	set Kacie Moore	+3.2
35	20-15	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.5
36	20-16	FURMAN	ETSU×4	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.1
37	20-17	ETSU	ETSU×4	Blocked	Amber Watson	blk Gianna Blair, Chloe Smith	+2.2
38	20-18	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Bailey Gohlke	+3.1
39	20-19	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Bailey Gohlke	set Karis Chatfield	+4.0
40	21-19	ETSU	FURMAN	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+3.9
41	21-20	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+3.1
42	22-20	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	ETSU		+4.3
43	23-20	FURMAN	FURMAN	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman	+4.7
44	23-21	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Melanie Morris	+2.0
45	24-21	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.7
46	25-21	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.1
Set 2
1	0-1	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Izzy Castelloe	blk Makayla Bays, Gianna Blair	+2.7
2	1-1	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	Kennedy Boatman		+2.1
3	2-1	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashley Stein	set Kennedy Seekford	+2.9
4	2-2	FURMAN	ETSU×5	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+2.1
5	2-3	ETSU	ETSU×5	Blocked	Izzy Castelloe	blk Karis Chatfield, Gianna Blair	+2.8
6	2-4	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Kacie Moore		+2.6
7	2-5	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson		+2.4
8	2-6	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Melanie Morris	+2.2
9	3-6	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	Makayla Bays		+1.5
10	4-6	FURMAN	FURMAN	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Kacie Moore, Morgan Baldridge	+2.4
11	4-7	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.9
12	5-7	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.8
13	5-8	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Raegan Waller	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.9
14	6-8	ETSU	FURMAN×5	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.9
15	7-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.9
16	8-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Attack err	Chloe Smith		+3.2
17	9-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.5
18	10-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×5	Attack err	Karis Chatfield		+3.7
19	10-9	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Kacie Moore		+2.5
20	11-9	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.9
21	11-10	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Morgan Baldridge		+2.6
22	12-10	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Amber Watson	+3.0
23	12-11	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.7
24	13-11	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.1
25	13-12	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.8
26	14-12	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Elizabeth Aylward	+3.2
27	14-13	FURMAN	ETSU	Bad set	Morgan Baldridge		+2.9
28	14-14	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Raegan Waller	set Kennedy Boatman	+4.2
29	15-14	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Ashley Stein	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.4
30	15-15	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Raegan Waller	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.2
31	15-16	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield		+4.4
32	16-16	ETSU	FURMAN	Attack err	Karis Chatfield		+3.4
33	16-17	FURMAN	ETSU	Attack err	Amber Watson		+3.4
34	16-18	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+4.4
35	17-18	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	Karis Chatfield		+3.0
36	18-18	FURMAN	FURMAN	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+5.0
37	18-19	FURMAN	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+4.0
38	18-20	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+5.0
39	18-21	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+4.1
40	19-21	ETSU	FURMAN×3	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.3
41	20-21	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+4.6
42	21-21	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+6.5
43	21-22	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+5.5
44	22-22	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Tennyson Gorman	set Morgan Baldridge	+5.5
45	22-23	FURMAN	ETSU	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+6.5
46	23-23	ETSU	FURMAN×3	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+6.4
47	24-23	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Ashley Stein	set Morgan Baldridge	+12.0
48	25-23	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Kacie Moore, Morgan Baldridge	+13.2
Set 3
1	1-0	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashley Stein	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.4
2	1-1	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.7
3	2-1	ETSU	FURMAN	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+1.8
4	3-1	FURMAN	FURMAN	Blocked	Chloe Smith	blk Ashley Stein, Kacie Moore	+2.6
5	3-2	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.8
6	3-3	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+2.4
7	4-3	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.9
8	5-3	FURMAN	FURMAN	Attack err	Gianna Blair		+2.7
9	5-4	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Brooke Scheffler		+1.9
10	5-5	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.6
11	6-5	ETSU	FURMAN	Serve err	Kennedy Boatman		+2.0
12	7-5	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.8
13	7-6	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
14	7-7	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU		+2.7
15	8-7	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.2
16	9-7	FURMAN	FURMAN	Ace	Kacie Moore	aced Melanie Morris	+3.0
17	9-8	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Kacie Moore		+2.1
18	9-9	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Kennedy Seekford	+2.9
19	10-9	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.3
20	10-10	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.2
21	11-10	ETSU	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+2.4
22	12-10	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Blocked	Chloe Smith	blk Tennyson Gorman, Izzy Castelloe	+3.3
23	13-10	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+3.3
24	14-10	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Tennyson Gorman	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.1
25	14-11	FURMAN	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.9
26	14-12	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU	aced Kennedy Seekford	+2.9
27	14-13	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+3.3
28	15-13	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+2.8
29	15-14	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.5
30	16-14	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.0
31	16-15	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.6
32	16-16	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.8
33	17-16	ETSU	FURMAN	Blocked	Makayla Bays	blk Kacie Moore	+3.2
34	17-17	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.0
35	18-17	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+3.4
36	18-18	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.2
37	18-19	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Raegan Waller	set Kennedy Boatman	+4.5
38	19-19	ETSU	FURMAN	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+3.4
39	19-20	FURMAN	ETSU	Blocked	Amber Watson	blk Raegan Waller, Elizabeth Aylward	+3.6
40	20-20	ETSU	FURMAN	Blocked	Makayla Bays	blk Tennyson Gorman, Amber Watson	+3.7
41	20-21	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Bailey Gohlke	+4.0
42	21-21	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+4.1
43	21-22	FURMAN	ETSU	Attack err	Chloe Smith		+4.6
44	22-22	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+4.6
45	22-23	FURMAN	ETSU	Attack err	Morgan Baldridge		+5.4
46	23-23	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+5.3
47	23-24	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Melanie Morris	+6.9
48	24-24	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+6.9
49	25-24	FURMAN	FURMAN	Ace	Kacie Moore		+10.0
50	25-25	FURMAN	ETSU	Serve err	Kacie Moore		+7.6
51	26-25	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Tennyson Gorman	set Morgan Baldridge	+7.6
52	26-26	FURMAN	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+7.6
53	27-26	ETSU	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+7.6
54	28-26	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Morgan Baldridge	+11.0

Score shown after each rally, Furman first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Furman def. ETSU 3–0

The upset: Furman, a 29% pick, over ETSU.