Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 27, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Canisius def. Niagara 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Canisius 72.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 27, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Canisius beat visiting Niagara 3-1 (27-25, 25-15, 22-25, 25-23) on Tue, Oct 27, 2026. Canisius' Emma Isroff led with 13 kills, and Brenda Reynaga added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 27

Set1234Sets
NIAGRA251525231
CANISI272522253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Niagara hit .105. Canisius held them there all match.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Canisius's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Canisius 73% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Niagara 20–17 Canisius

    5 straight Canisius points turned a 17–20 deficit into a 22–20 lead.

    Canisius 60% → 79%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Niagara 21–20 Canisius

    Canisius scored 4 straight to turn a 20–21 deficit into a 24–21 lead.

    Canisius 77% → 98%

Canisius above 50Niagara belowMax swing 7.5%

NiagaraCanisius

Sideout %
Niagara 51.0·Canisius 57.3
Break %
Niagara 42.7·Canisius 49.0
Hitting
Niagara .105·Canisius .230
Longest run
Niagara 4·Canisius 6

Julia Lenik
2 kills inside the turning points, 12 K and .276 for the match (14 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Canisius above 50 · Niagara below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.5% CANISIrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.5% to Canisius — set 1, NIAGRA 25-27 CANISI. Kill by Julia Lenik (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui). CANISI win probability 78% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIAGRA 25.2%74.8% CANISI

Niagara wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.6%
3-2
12.1%

Canisius wins

3-0
26.9%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
19.3%
NIAGRA break %
41.8% vs this opp
CANISI break %
46.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Julia LenikKill+7.5%

    Kill by Julia Lenik (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 25-27 CANISI · CANISI 78% → 85%

  2. 02
    Emma IsroffKill+6.9%

    Kill by Emma Isroff (set by Brenda Reynaga)

    Set 4 · NIAGRA 23-25 CANISI · CANISI 93% → 100%

  3. 03

    Ace by Kenslie Warmbrodt on Jakayla Brown

    Set 4 · NIAGRA 21-22 CANISI · CANISI 82% → 88%

  4. 04
    Hannah KosKill+6.4%

    Kill by Hannah Kos (set by Anna Rich)

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 23-24 CANISI · CANISI 71% → 78%

  5. 05
    CanisiusService error+6.4%

    Canisius service error

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 24-24 CANISI · NIAGRA 22% → 29%

  6. 06
    Karlotta KattaiBad set+6.4%

    Bad set by Karlotta Kattai

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 24-25 CANISI · CANISI 71% → 78%

  7. 07
    Anna RichAttack error+6.4%

    Attack error by Anna Rich

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 25-25 CANISI · NIAGRA 22% → 29%

  8. 08
    Azoria DavisKill+6.4%

    Kill by Azoria Davis (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)

    Set 1 · NIAGRA 25-26 CANISI · CANISI 71% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47622.0450218302110
45213.231000012449
45319.10510000010.55.5
4316.333001600003
4013-.3331912600001
2131130.0670003000013
48422.182000000008
4002.0004202020002
4001.0001910400001
36515.06700140010.56.5
3000–000310000
Team totals4733133.105436554728688
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413330.3330224002116
412429.2761136002114
412727.18500182010.512.5
45011.45500210010510
4014-.2502632400214
4318.25000000010.53.5
4002.0004041930000
4011-1.0001400100000
3237-.14300000010.52.5
2207.28601120132.55.5
2000–000000000
Team totals4920126.230457154561221299

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Niagara vs Canisius

Season series · Canisius leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NIAGRA · CANISI 6

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 4 NIAGRACANISI 5

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 NIAGRACANISI 6

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 NIAGRACANISI 3

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 4 NIAGRACANISI 4

Bars above the line = Canisius leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Niagara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
34%10/29
36%5/14
2
69%9/13
38%6/16
3
45%9/20
47%8/17
4
62%8/13
47%7/15
5
70%7/10
33%4/12
6
54%7/13
53%8/15
All
51%50/98
43%38/89

Canisius

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%10/16
53%9/17
2
59%10/17
58%14/24
3
50%8/16
47%8/17
4
67%8/12
47%7/15
5
57%8/14
38%5/13
6
50%7/14
42%5/12
All
57%51/89
49%48/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#NIAGRA-CANISISrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CANISICANISIKillMcKenna Corcoranset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.9
20-2CANISICANISIAttack errPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.8
31-2CANISINIAGRA×3KillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.4
42-2NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceKatelynn Rottmanaced Brenda Reynaga+2.0
53-2NIAGRANIAGRA×3Attack errEmma Isroff+2.2
63-3NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.6
74-3CANISINIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.8
85-3NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceAshley Morelandaced Azoria Davis+2.4
96-3NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.4
106-4NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Brenda Reynaga+1.7
117-4CANISINIAGRA×3KillKatelynn Rottmanset Payton Lee+2.0
128-4NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceNoel Perkins+2.4
139-4NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+2.3
149-5NIAGRACANISIKillHayden Siebenalerset Anna Rich+1.5
159-6CANISICANISIAceJulia Lenikaced Ashley Moreland+2.2
1610-6CANISINIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+2.0
1710-7NIAGRACANISI×3BlockedKatelynn Rottmanblk Hayden Siebenaler, Hannah Kos+1.7
1810-8CANISICANISI×3BlockedKatelynn Rottmanblk Hannah Kos+2.4
1910-9CANISICANISI×3Attack errKarlotta Kattai+2.6
2011-9CANISINIAGRA×4KillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+2.2
2112-9NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+2.9
2213-9NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+2.7
2314-9NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errAzoria Davis+2.5
2414-10NIAGRACANISI×3KillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+1.5
2514-11CANISICANISI×3AceHannah Kosaced Ashley Moreland+2.3
2614-12CANISICANISI×3KillMcKenna Corcoranset Anna Rich+2.6
2715-12CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+2.5
2815-13NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.1
2915-14CANISICANISIAttack errJakayla Brown+3.0
3016-14CANISINIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.7
3117-14NIAGRANIAGRAAceKatelynn Rottmanaced Brenda Reynaga+3.4
3217-15NIAGRACANISI×3BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Emma Isroff, McKenna Corcoran+2.2
3317-16CANISICANISI×3Bad setPaisley Ka’ahanui+3.3
3417-17CANISICANISI×3Attack errPayton Lee+3.6
3518-17CANISINIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+3.1
3619-17NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceAshley Morelandaced Azoria Davis+4.2
3720-17NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+3.9
3820-18NIAGRACANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.3
3920-19CANISICANISI×5Bad setPaisley Ka’ahanui+3.8
4020-20CANISICANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+4.5
4120-21CANISICANISI×5Attack errKarlotta Kattai+4.8
4220-22CANISICANISI×5AceEmma Isroffaced Elyannah Sonza+4.4
4321-22CANISINIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.8
4422-22NIAGRANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+5.4
4522-23NIAGRACANISIKillJulia Lenikset Anna Rich+5.0
4623-23CANISINIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+4.9
4723-24NIAGRACANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+6.4
4824-24CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+6.4
4924-25NIAGRACANISIBad setKarlotta Kattai+6.4
5025-25CANISINIAGRAAttack errAnna Rich+6.4
5125-26NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+6.4
5225-27CANISICANISIKillJulia Lenikset Paisley Ka’ahanui+7.5
Set 2
10-1NIAGRACANISI×4BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Kenslie Warmbrodt, McKenna Corcoran+1.2
20-2CANISICANISI×4BlockedJakayla Brownblk Kenslie Warmbrodt, McKenna Corcoran+1.5
30-3CANISICANISI×4KillMcKenna Corcoran+1.4
40-4CANISICANISI×4Attack errKarlotta Kattai+1.2
51-4CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+0.9
61-5NIAGRACANISIAttack errKarlotta Kattai+1.0
71-6CANISICANISIBad setPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
82-6CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+0.8
92-7NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.8
103-7CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+0.8
113-8NIAGRACANISIBlockedKadence Goolsbyblk McKenna Corcoran, Julia Lenik+0.8
124-8CANISINIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.8
135-8NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+1.2
145-9NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.0
156-9CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+1.0
166-10NIAGRACANISIServe errPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
177-10CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+1.0
187-11NIAGRACANISI×3KillHayden Siebenalerset Anna Rich+1.1
197-12CANISICANISI×3Attack errPayton Lee+1.2
207-13CANISICANISI×3BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk McKenna Corcoran, Hannah Kos+0.9
218-13CANISINIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.6
228-14NIAGRACANISIBlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk McKenna Corcoran, Hannah Kos+0.7
238-15CANISICANISIAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.7
249-15CANISINIAGRA×4KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.4
2510-15NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errAzoria Davis+0.7
2611-15NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+1.0
2712-15NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.3
2812-16NIAGRACANISI×6BlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Azoria Davis, McKenna Corcoran+1.2
2912-17CANISICANISI×6KillEmma Isroffset Brenda Reynaga+1.2
3012-18CANISICANISI×6KillMcKenna Corcoran+0.9
3112-19CANISICANISI×6BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Julia Lenik, McKenna Corcoran+0.5
3212-20CANISICANISI×6BlockedKadence Goolsbyblk McKenna Corcoran, Emma Isroff+0.3
3312-21CANISICANISI×6Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.1
3413-21CANISINIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3514-21NIAGRANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Ashley Moreland+0.1
3614-22NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.2
3714-23CANISICANISIAttack errKatelynn Rottman+0.1
3815-23CANISINIAGRAAttack errKenslie Warmbrodt·
3915-24NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt·
4015-25CANISICANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt·
Set 3
10-1CANISICANISIKillAzoria Davisset Julia Lenik+0.8
21-1CANISINIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.7
32-1NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.9
42-2NIAGRACANISIServe errKatelynn Rottman+0.7
53-2CANISINIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
63-3NIAGRACANISI×3KillHayden Siebenalerset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.7
73-4CANISICANISI×3AceEmma Isroffaced Katelynn Rottman+0.9
83-5CANISICANISI×3KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.9
94-5CANISINIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.7
104-6NIAGRACANISIKillJulia Lenikset Anna Rich+0.7
115-6CANISINIAGRA×3Serve errCanisius+0.7
126-6NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillNatasa Ljubicicset Anna Rich+1.0
137-6NIAGRANIAGRA×3Attack errAzoria Davis+1.1
147-7NIAGRACANISIAttack errKatelynn Rottman+0.8
158-7CANISINIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.9
168-8NIAGRACANISIKillMcKenna Corcoranset Anna Rich+0.8
179-8CANISINIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+0.9
1810-8NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.2
1910-9NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.9
2011-9CANISINIAGRAAttack errJulia Lenik+1.0
2111-10NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.9
2212-10CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+1.0
2312-11NIAGRACANISIAttack errNatasa Ljubicic+0.9
2413-11CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+1.0
2513-12NIAGRACANISIAttack errKaitlyn Doyle+0.9
2613-13CANISICANISIBad setNoel Perkins+1.3
2714-13CANISINIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.1
2814-14NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+1.0
2915-14CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+1.1
3016-14NIAGRANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottman+1.5
3116-15NIAGRACANISI×3Serve errNatasa Ljubicic+1.1
3216-16CANISICANISI×3KillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.5
3316-17CANISICANISI×3KillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.5
3417-17CANISINIAGRA×3KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.2
3518-17NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.7
3619-17NIAGRANIAGRA×3BlockedEmma Isroffblk Jakayla Brown, Katelynn Rottman+1.8
3719-18NIAGRACANISI×3Attack errKatelynn Rottman+1.2
3819-19CANISICANISI×3Attack errPayton Lee+1.8
3919-20CANISICANISI×3KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.9
4020-20CANISINIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.5
4120-21NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.6
4221-21CANISINIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.6
4322-21NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errJulia Lenik+2.6
4422-22NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.9
4523-22CANISINIAGRA×3KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.4
4624-22NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins+3.2
4725-22NIAGRANIAGRA×3Attack errHayden Siebenaler+2.0
Set 4
10-1NIAGRACANISIAttack errKaitlyn Doyle+1.8
20-2CANISICANISIAceKenslie Warmbrodtaced Katelynn Rottman+2.2
31-2CANISINIAGRABlockedAzoria Davisblk Jakayla Brown+1.7
41-3NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.7
52-3CANISINIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.8
62-4NIAGRACANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.8
73-4CANISINIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.8
83-5NIAGRACANISIServe errKaitlyn Doyle+1.8
94-5CANISINIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.8
105-5NIAGRANIAGRABlockedCali Tierneyblk Katelynn Rottman, Jakayla Brown+2.6
115-6NIAGRACANISIKillJulia Lenikset Anna Rich+2.0
126-6CANISINIAGRA×4Serve errCanisius+2.1
137-6NIAGRANIAGRA×4BlockedAzoria Davisblk Payton Lee, Jakayla Brown+3.0
148-6NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+3.1
159-6NIAGRANIAGRA×4AcePaisley Ka’ahanuiaced Brenda Reynaga+3.2
169-7NIAGRACANISIKillCali Tierneyset Anna Rich+2.2
179-8CANISICANISIKillCali Tierneyset Anna Rich+3.0
1810-8CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+2.6
1911-8NIAGRANIAGRABlockedCali Tierneyblk Jakayla Brown, Kaitlyn Doyle+3.3
2011-9NIAGRACANISI×4BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk McKenna Corcoran, Cali Tierney+2.3
2111-10CANISICANISI×4Attack errKaitlyn Doyle+3.2
2211-11CANISICANISI×4KillAzoria Davisset Brenda Reynaga+3.3
2311-12CANISICANISI×4Attack errKaitlyn Doyle+3.2
2412-12CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+2.6
2513-12NIAGRANIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Ashley Moreland+3.7
2613-13NIAGRACANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.7
2714-13CANISINIAGRAAttack errEmma Isroff+3.0
2814-14NIAGRACANISIAttack errKadence Goolsby+2.8
2915-14CANISINIAGRAServe errCanisius+3.1
3016-14NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errJulia Lenik+4.2
3116-15NIAGRACANISI×3KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.9
3216-16CANISICANISI×3KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+4.1
3316-17CANISICANISI×3KillJulia Lenikset Noel Perkins+4.1
3417-17CANISINIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+3.3
3517-18NIAGRACANISIKillJulia Lenikset Anna Rich+3.4
3618-18CANISINIAGRAAttack errAzoria Davis+3.5
3719-18NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errAzoria Davis+5.2
3819-19NIAGRACANISIServe errPaisley Ka’ahanui+3.8
3919-20CANISICANISIAttack errKatelynn Rottman+5.2
4020-20CANISINIAGRAAttack errCali Tierney+4.1
4121-20NIAGRANIAGRABlockedJulia Lenikblk Jakayla Brown+6.3
4221-21NIAGRACANISI×4KillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+4.6
4321-22CANISICANISI×4AceKenslie Warmbrodtaced Jakayla Brown+6.6
4421-23CANISICANISI×4AceKenslie Warmbrodtaced Katelynn Rottman+6.0
4521-24CANISICANISI×4KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+4.1
4622-24CANISINIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.3
4723-24NIAGRANIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Ashley Moreland+4.0
4823-25NIAGRACANISIKillEmma Isroffset Brenda Reynaga+6.9

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).