Merrimack vs Niagara Volleyball: Niagara Wins 3-1 (Oct 16)

Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026ESPN+

1:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Merrimack 60.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Niagara beat visiting Merrimack 3-1 (25-20, 25-16, 11-25, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Niagara's Karlotta Kattai led with 19 kills, and Ashley Moreland added 19 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:50 PM CT · final Oct 16

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
MERMCK	20	16	25	21	1
NIAGRA	25	25	11	25	3

Match story · from the official box score

3–1: Niagara past Merrimack.

Box score only. The NCAA play-by-play didn’t check out against the official result, so no turning points are claimed. Merrimack went in at 61% by RallyIQ.

No single phase cleared the thresholds (8 pts of break %, .080 of hitting, a 5-point run).

MerrimackNiagara

Hitting: Merrimack .245·Niagara .242
Aces: Merrimack 3·Niagara 5
Serve err: Merrimack 12·Niagara 9
Blocks: Merrimack 5·Niagara 61 BS · 8 BA vs 5 BS · 2 BA
Digs: Merrimack 65·Niagara 73

Win probability

Niagara above 50 · Merrimack below

Biggest swing: 4.1% to Niagara — set 1, MERMCK 16-18 NIAGRA. Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed). NIAGRA win probability 44% → 48%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERMCK 59.0%41.0% NIAGRA

Merrimack wins

3-0

16.7%

3-1

22.5%

3-2

19.8%

Niagara wins

3-0

9.1%

3-1

15.0%

3-2

16.9%

MERMCK break %: 46.9% vs this opp
NIAGRA break %: 45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.1%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · MERMCK 16-18 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 44% → 48%
02
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.0%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · MERMCK 5-8 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 77% → 81%
03
Payton LeeKill+4.0%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 4 · MERMCK 7-11 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 82% → 86%
04
Karlotta KattaiKill+3.9%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Noel Perkins)
Set 4 · MERMCK 4-6 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 73% → 77%
05
Karlotta KattaiKill+3.9%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Noel Perkins)
Set 4 · MERMCK 4-5 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 69% → 73%
06
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.8%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · MERMCK 16-19 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 48% → 52%
07
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.7%
Point Merrimack (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · MERMCK 16-16 NIAGRA · MERMCK 56% → 60%
08
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.7%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · MERMCK 12-15 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 67% → 71%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merrimackaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	4	7	4	25	.120	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
13Mia IzzoMB	4	5	0	9	.556	0	1	2	3	0	0	2	1	7
1Naomi VajdaMB	4	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
3Sophia DeBonisS	4	1	0	2	.500	17	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
18Sienna Franks	4	0	0	1	.000	3	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	2	1	3	11	-.182	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
7Tamilore Afolalu	4	18	5	40	.325	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	18.5
14Maiella Blandin	4	8	1	26	.269	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	9
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	4	1	0	6	.167	3	0	0	15	3	0	0	0	1
15Gabrielle Moore	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
6Fabiola BetancourtOH	3	4	1	17	.176	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	4
19Elizabeth KenneyS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
22Devon Lowe	2	0	0	0	–	9	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	14	143	.245	46	3	12	65	5	1	8	5	82

Niagarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Karlotta KattaiOH	4	19	8	43	.256	4	1	4	13	0	0	1	0.5	20.5
17Payton LeeOH	4	11	5	23	.261	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	13
18Katelynn RottmanOH	4	10	4	40	.150	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	11
7Taylor JenkinsMB	4	3	0	11	.273	1	1	1	2	0	2	1	2.5	6.5
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	4	3	0	6	.500	18	2	3	16	0	0	0	0	5
10Jakayla BrownMB	4	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	4	9	0	20	.450	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	4	0	0	2	.000	10	0	1	19	1	0	0	0	0
14Noel PerkinsOH	4	0	1	1	-1.000	21	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	19	149	.242	54	5	9	73	3	5	2	6	86

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MERMCK · NIAGRA 7

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 8 MERMCKNIAGRA 7

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 MERMCKNIAGRA 4

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 6 MERMCKNIAGRA 2

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 5 MERMCKNIAGRA 3

Bars above the line = Niagara leads, below = Merrimack leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Merrimack

No clean sets to split.

Niagara

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

167 rallies

#	MERMCK-NIAGRA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1–12	5-7		MERMCK 5 · NIAGRA 7	NCAA feed gap12 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+5.6
13	6-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.6
14–41	18-23		MERMCK 12 · NIAGRA 16	NCAA feed gap28 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+16.2
42	18-24	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	Niagara	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.9
43	19-24		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.2
44	20-24	MERMCK	MERMCK	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	Niagara	aced Ella Maldonado	+2.7
2	0-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee		+2.7
3	0-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.7
4	1-3	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Serve err	Niagara		+2.0
5	1-4	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.2
6	1-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Ashley Moreland	+2.7
7	2-5	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.9
8	2-6	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.2
9	3-6	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Serve err	Niagara		+1.9
10	3-7	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.2
11	4-7	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Serve err	Niagara		+2.0
12–13	5-8		MERMCK · NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.3
14	5-9	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.3
15	6-9	NIAGRA	MERMCK×3	Serve err	Niagara		+2.0
16	7-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.8
17	8-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Ace	Merrimack		+3.0
18	8-10	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+2.7
19	9-10	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+2.5
20	9-11	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.8
21	10-11	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.6
22	10-12	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.9
23	10-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+3.4
24	11-13	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Serve err	Niagara		+2.5
25	12-13	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Ella Maldonado	+3.4
26	12-14	MERMCK	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+3.1
27	12-15		NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.7
28	12-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+3.3
29	12-17	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+2.8
30	13-17		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.7
31	13-18	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai		+2.3
32–33	14-19		MERMCK · NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.0
34	14-20	MERMCK	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+1.6
35	14-21	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby		+1.2
36	14-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Taylor Jenkins	set Noel Perkins	+0.6
37	14-23	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.3
38	15-23	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
39	15-24	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.1
40	16-24	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		·
41	16-25	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Taylor Jenkins	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Serve err	Niagara		+1.5
2	1-1	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai		+1.6
3	2-1	NIAGRA	MERMCK×6	Kill	Sophia DeBonis		+1.6
4–5	4-1		MERMCK 2	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.7
6	5-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+1.6
7	6-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+1.5
8	7-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.3
9	7-2		NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.9
10	8-2	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.0
11–13	10-3		MERMCK 2 · NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.2
14	11-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Ella Maldonado	+0.8
15	12-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sienna Franks	+0.6
16	12-4	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.3
17	13-4		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.5
18	14-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Bad set	Noel Perkins		+0.4
19	14-5	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.2
20	15-5	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.3
21	16-5		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.2
22	16-6	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee		+0.1
23	17-6	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.2
24	18-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.1
25	18-7		NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			·
26	18-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai		+0.1
27	19-8	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.1
28	19-9	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.1
29	20-9	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.1
30	21-9	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack	aced Ashley Moreland	·
31	21-10	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai		·
32	22-10	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Sophia DeBonis	·
33	23-10	MERMCK	MERMCK	Serve err	Merrimack		·
34	23-11	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	·
35	24-11	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	·
36	25-11	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.3
Set 4
1	1-0		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.7
2	1-1	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+2.8
3	2-1	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu		+2.8
4	3-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Naomi Vajda, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+3.4
5	3-2	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Blocked	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Karlotta Kattai, Taylor Jenkins	+2.7
6	3-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Blocked	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Payton Lee	+3.6
7	4-3	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.9
8	4-4	MERMCK	NIAGRA×3	Serve err	Merrimack		+3.0
9	4-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+3.9
10	4-6	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+3.9
11	5-6	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.0
12	5-7	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+3.3
13	5-8		NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+4.0
14	6-8	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin		+2.9
15	6-9		NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.3
16	7-9	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.0
17	7-10	MERMCK	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+3.4
18	7-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+4.0
19	7-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+3.6
20	8-12	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+2.3
21	8-13	MERMCK	NIAGRA×3	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.9
22	8-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+3.0
23–24	9-15		MERMCK · NIAGRA	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.0
25	9-16	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+1.9
26	10-16	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.3
27	10-17	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui	set Karlotta Kattai	+1.8
28	11-17	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.2
29	12-17	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.1
30	12-18	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+2.3
31	13-18	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.6
32	13-19	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.3
33	13-20	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai		+1.8
34	14-20	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.8
35	15-20		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.6
36	15-21	MERMCK	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman		+2.0
37	15-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Fabiola Betancourt		+1.4
38	15-23	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Ashley Moreland	+0.6
39	16-23	NIAGRA	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
40	16-24	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.3
41	17-24		MERMCK	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			·
42	18-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.1
43	19-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Naomi Vajda, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.3
44	20-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.6
45	21-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Payton Lee		+1.4
46	21-25	MERMCK	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+2.6

Score shown after each rally, Merrimack first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Niagara def. Merrimack 3–1

3–1: Niagara past Merrimack.