Niagara vs Manhattan Volleyball: Manhattan Wins 3-2 (Oct 9)

Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026

2:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Manhattan 76.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Manhattan beat visiting Niagara 3-2 (27-25, 22-25, 25-21, 17-25, 18-16) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Hanna Kaczynska led Manhattan with 15 kills; Niagara's Karlotta Kattai had a match-high 19.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 9

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
NIAGRA	25	25	21	25	16	2
MANHAT	27	22	25	17	18	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Abby Morreale served 4 aces, and Manhattan needed every one.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Manhattan's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Manhattan 76% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · Niagara 21–22 Manhattan
Niagara closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–22 and level the match at 1–1.
Manhattan 88% → 71%
Turning point 2: Set 5 · Niagara 9–11 Manhattan
5 straight Niagara points turned a 9–11 deficit into a 14–11 lead. The match swung to Niagara.
Manhattan 82% → 6%
Turning point 3: Set 5 · Niagara 14–11 Manhattan
Manhattan's low point. Manhattan then won 7 of the next 9 rallies and the set 18–16, and with it the match.
Manhattan 6% → >99%

Manhattan above 50Niagara belowMax swing 29.2%

NiagaraManhattan

Sideout %: Niagara 55.6·Manhattan 54.0
Break %: Niagara 46.0·Manhattan 44.4
Hitting: Niagara .192·Manhattan .197
Longest run: Niagara 7·Manhattan 5

Hanna Kaczynska
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 15 K, .500, 18 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Manhattan above 50 · Niagara below

Biggest swing: 29.2% to Manhattan — set 5, NIAGRA 14-14 MANHAT. Manhattan ace on Ashley Moreland. MANHAT win probability 23% → 52%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIAGRA 24.3%75.7% MANHAT

Niagara wins

3-0

4.3%

3-1

8.3%

3-2

11.8%

Manhattan wins

3-0

27.6%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

19.2%

NIAGRA break %: 40.4% vs this opp
MANHAT break %: 45.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
ManhattanAce+29.2%
Manhattan ace on Ashley Moreland
Set 5 · NIAGRA 14-14 MANHAT · MANHAT 23% → 52%
02
Katelynn RottmanAttack error+25.6%
Attack error by Katelynn Rottman
Set 5 · NIAGRA 16-17 MANHAT · MANHAT 52% → 77%
03
ManhattanAce+22.5%
Manhattan ace
Set 5 · NIAGRA 16-18 MANHAT · MANHAT 77% → 100%
04
Karlotta KattaiKill+19.9%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Ashley Moreland)
Set 5 · NIAGRA 15-14 MANHAT · NIAGRA 48% → 68%
05
Hanna Kaczynska&Helenn MontillaBlock+19.9%
Karlotta Kattai stuffed by Hanna Kaczynska & Helenn Montilla
Set 5 · NIAGRA 15-15 MANHAT · MANHAT 32% → 52%
06
Karlotta KattaiKill+19.9%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Noel Perkins)
Set 5 · NIAGRA 16-15 MANHAT · NIAGRA 48% → 68%
07
Hanna KaczynskaKill+19.9%
Kill by Hanna Kaczynska (set by Emilia Kuzniar)
Set 5 · NIAGRA 16-16 MANHAT · MANHAT 32% → 52%
08
Karlotta KattaiKill+19.8%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 5 · NIAGRA 13-11 MANHAT · NIAGRA 59% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Niagaraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Karlotta KattaiOH	5	19	11	47	.170	5	4	3	9	1	0	1	0.5	23.5
18Katelynn RottmanOH	5	12	8	30	.133	1	1	1	10	3	0	0	0	13
17Payton LeeOH	5	10	6	27	.148	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	5	3	0	4	.750	23	5	0	13	0	0	0	0	8
7Taylor JenkinsMB	5	2	3	10	-.100	1	2	1	2	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
10Jakayla BrownMB	5	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	5	13	4	27	.333	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	5	0	1	2	-.500	9	0	2	17	5	0	0	0	0
14Noel PerkinsOH	5	0	0	0	–	21	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Kaitlyn DoyleOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		63	33	156	.192	60	12	9	60	13	1	14	8	112

Manhattanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Abby MorrealeMB	5	8	3	19	.263	0	4	4	0	0	1	4	3	15
6Katie PowersOH	5	13	6	35	.200	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	14
8Emma FrancesconiOH	5	7	3	23	.174	0	2	0	12	0	0	2	1	10
12Helenn MontillaMB	5	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	5	9
2Karsyn HarrisOH	5	6	2	22	.182	2	1	1	9	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
10Ori BrigerS	5	0	0	3	.000	27	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	5	15	1	28	.500	0	0	0	4	0	0	6	3	18
15Anna DuncanDS	5	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	9	5	0	0	0	3
4Emilia KuzniarS	5	0	0	0	–	20	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	3
3Julia PflegerL/DS	5	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
16Mikalah CurranOH	3	1	4	8	-.375	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	1.5
88Laura HernandezMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		54	24	152	.197	49	13	9	52	12	2	24	14	109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NIAGRA · MANHAT 5

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 NIAGRAMANHAT 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 6 NIAGRAMANHAT 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 NIAGRAMANHAT 5

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 7 NIAGRAMANHAT 4

Set 5

16-18

Longest run 5 NIAGRAMANHAT 4

Bars above the line = Manhattan leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Niagara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%12/20	59%16/27
2	61%11/18	43%9/21
3	52%11/21	50%11/22
4	59%10/17	17%2/12
5	42%8/19	57%12/21
6	62%8/13	20%2/10
All	56%60/108	46%52/113

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	48%12/25	18%2/11
2	46%11/24	42%8/19
3	61%11/18	35%6/17
4	71%10/14	58%15/26
5	47%9/19	38%6/16
6	62%8/13	58%11/19
All	54%61/113	44%48/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

221 rallies

#	NIAGRA-MANHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Ashley Moreland	+1.5
2	1-1	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.4
3	1-2	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+1.9
4	2-2	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.4
5	3-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+2.2
6	3-3	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.4
7	3-4	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan		+2.0
8	4-4	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+1.5
9	4-5	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.4
10	4-6	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Katelynn Rottman	blk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska	+2.0
11	5-6	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Blocked	Karsyn Harris	blk Kadence Goolsby, Jakayla Brown	+1.4
12	5-7	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.4
13	6-7	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+1.4
14	6-8	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.4
15	7-8	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.4
16	7-9	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+1.5
17	8-9	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Taylor Jenkins	+1.5
18	8-10	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+1.5
19	9-10	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.5
20	10-10	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Jakayla Brown, Karlotta Kattai	+2.5
21	10-11	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+1.7
22	11-11	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+1.8
23	11-12	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+1.8
24	12-12	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+1.9
25	13-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+3.0
26	13-13	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.0
27	14-13	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+2.2
28	14-14	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.1
29	15-14	MANHAT	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.3
30	16-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+3.5
31	17-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+3.5
32	17-15	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+1.9
33	18-15	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.6
34	18-16	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+2.0
35	19-16	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.7
36	19-17	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+2.0
37	20-17	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+2.8
38	20-18	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+2.0
39	21-18	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+2.9
40	22-18	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+3.2
41	22-19	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Serve err	Niagara		+1.2
42	22-20	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Taylor Jenkins		+2.8
43	22-21	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+4.2
44	23-21	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+4.4
45	23-22	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.9
46	23-23	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+6.7
47	23-24	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Payton Lee	blk Abby Morreale, Hanna Kaczynska	+8.0
48	24-24	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+5.4
49	25-24	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+8.8
50	25-25	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+6.2
51	25-26	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers	+8.0
52	25-27	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+7.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	Niagara	aced Karsyn Harris	+1.6
2	2-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	Niagara	aced Karsyn Harris	+1.7
3	3-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Ashley Moreland	+1.8
4	4-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	Niagara	aced Katie Powers	+1.8
5	5-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	Niagara	aced Anna Duncan	+1.7
6	6-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+1.6
7	6-1	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.9
8	7-1	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Payton Lee, Taylor Jenkins	+1.2
9	7-2	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.9
10	7-3	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan		+1.5
11	8-3	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.3
12	9-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.6
13	9-4	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Ori Briger	+0.9
14	9-5	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.5
15	9-6	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ashley Moreland	+1.7
16	10-6	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.4
17	10-7	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.2
18	10-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan	aced Katelynn Rottman	+1.9
19	11-8	MANHAT	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Katelynn Rottman	+1.6
20	12-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+2.1
21	13-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Ace	Niagara	aced Mikalah Curran	+1.9
22	14-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Karlotta Kattai	+1.6
23	14-9	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+0.8
24	14-10	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Kadence Goolsby	blk Abby Morreale, Mikalah Curran	+1.5
25	15-10	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+1.4
26	15-11	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+1.0
27	16-11	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Taylor Jenkins	set Noel Perkins	+1.4
28	17-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mikalah Curran		+1.6
29	17-12	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Ori Briger	+0.7
30	17-13	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+1.4
31	17-14	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Taylor Jenkins	blk Abby Morreale	+1.8
32	18-14	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.7
33	18-15	NIAGRA	MANHAT×4	Kill	Katie Powers	set Karsyn Harris	+1.2
34	18-16	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Payton Lee		+2.3
35	18-17	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Payton Lee		+2.7
36	18-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	Manhattan	aced Karlotta Kattai	+3.0
37	19-18	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui	set Ashley Moreland	+2.4
38	19-19	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Serve err	Niagara		+2.2
39	19-20	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Payton Lee	blk Helenn Montilla, Karsyn Harris	+3.4
40	19-21	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Ashley Moreland		+3.1
41	20-21	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+1.8
42	21-21	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+3.7
43	21-22	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.9
44	22-22	MANHAT	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+2.9
45	23-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+5.5
46	24-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Ace	Niagara	aced Mikalah Curran	+5.8
47	25-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby		+3.4
Set 3
1	1-0	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+2.2
2	1-1	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+2.0
3	1-2	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale		+2.9
4	2-2	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.1
5	2-3	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+2.0
6	3-3	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+2.1
7	4-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+3.3
8	4-4	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+2.2
9	4-5	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan	aced Katelynn Rottman	+3.1
10	5-5	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Karlotta Kattai	+2.2
11	6-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+3.5
12	6-6	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.3
13	6-7	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Taylor Jenkins	blk Helenn Montilla	+3.3
14	7-7	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+2.4
15	7-8	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.3
16	7-9	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Abby Morreale, Emma Francesconi	+3.1
17	7-10	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ashley Moreland	+2.8
18	8-10	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+1.8
19	8-11	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+2.0
20	9-11	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Taylor Jenkins	+1.9
21	10-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+3.2
22	10-12	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+2.4
23	11-12	MANHAT	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.4
24	12-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+4.0
25	13-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Ashley Moreland	+4.5
26	14-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Karlotta Kattai	+4.7
27	14-13	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+2.9
28	15-13	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+3.5
29	15-14	NIAGRA	MANHAT×5	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+3.0
30	15-15	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+4.7
31	15-16	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+4.7
32	15-17	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Blocked	Katelynn Rottman	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla	+4.3
33	15-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+3.7
34	16-18	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Ashley Moreland		+2.1
35	16-19	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.6
36	16-20	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Kadence Goolsby	blk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi	+2.8
37	16-21	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Katelynn Rottman	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla	+1.8
38	17-21	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Laura Hernandez		+0.7
39	18-21	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Laura Hernandez		+1.8
40	18-22	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.9
41	18-23	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ashley Moreland	+1.4
42	19-23	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.4
43	20-23	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee		+1.2
44	20-24	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+1.5
45	21-24	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+0.5
46	21-25	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.0
Set 4
1	1-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.5
2	2-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	Niagara	aced Anna Duncan	+2.7
3	3-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+2.8
4	3-1	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.7
5	3-2	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Payton Lee		+2.6
6	4-2	MANHAT	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.0
7	5-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	Niagara	aced Karsyn Harris	+2.9
8	6-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.9
9	6-3	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.7
10	7-3	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.1
11	7-4	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.7
12	7-5	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Ori Briger	+2.7
13	8-5	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Blocked	Karsyn Harris	blk Jakayla Brown, Payton Lee	+2.2
14	8-6	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+1.9
15	9-6	MANHAT	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Mikalah Curran		+2.3
16	10-6	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	Niagara	aced Anna Duncan	+3.1
17	11-6	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Blocked	Mikalah Curran	blk Kadence Goolsby, Jakayla Brown	+2.9
18	11-7	NIAGRA	MANHAT×4	Serve err	Niagara		+1.6
19	11-8	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+2.7
20	11-9	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+3.0
21	11-10	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Blocked	Katelynn Rottman	blk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska	+3.2
22	12-10	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+2.5
23	13-10	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+3.6
24	13-11	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.1
25	14-11	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+2.6
26	15-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+3.5
27	15-12	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.9
28	16-12	MANHAT	NIAGRA×7	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.5
29	17-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+3.1
30	18-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+2.4
31	19-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.6
32	20-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Ashley Moreland	+1.0
33	21-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Payton Lee, Taylor Jenkins	+0.5
34	22-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×7	Kill	Taylor Jenkins		+0.2
35	22-13	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	·
36	22-14	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan		+0.1
37	23-14	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
38	24-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mikalah Curran		+0.1
39	24-15	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	·
40	24-16	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan	aced Katelynn Rottman	·
41	24-17	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Helenn Montilla, Katie Powers	·
42	25-17	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+1.2
Set 5
1	0-1	NIAGRA	MANHAT×4	Kill	Katie Powers	set Karsyn Harris	+5.5
2	0-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Payton Lee		+7.6
3	0-3	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+6.6
4	0-4	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ashley Moreland	+5.5
5	1-4	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Karlotta Kattai	+3.3
6	1-5	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+3.8
7	2-5	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+3.3
8	2-6	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Serve err	Niagara		+3.9
9	3-6	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui	set Karlotta Kattai	+3.3
10	3-7	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+4.0
11	4-7	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Serve err	Manhattan		+3.2
12	5-7	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	Niagara	aced Karsyn Harris	+6.5
13	5-8	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+5.4
14	6-8	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+4.7
15	6-9	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+5.6
16	7-9	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Blocked	Julia Pfleger	blk Taylor Jenkins, Kadence Goolsby	+4.7
17	8-9	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Katie Powers		+9.5
18	8-10	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+7.8
19	9-10	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+7.0
20	9-11	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+8.4
21	10-11	MANHAT	NIAGRA×5	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui	set Ashley Moreland	+7.3
22	11-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Ace	Niagara	aced Anna Duncan	+14.9
23	12-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Ace	Niagara	aced Anna Duncan	+18.9
24	13-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+19.8
25	14-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Attack err	Katie Powers		+15.1
26	14-12	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Ori Briger	+3.8
27	14-13	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+12.8
28	14-14	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ashley Moreland	+29.2
29	15-14	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Ashley Moreland	+19.9
30	15-15	NIAGRA	MANHAT	Blocked	Karlotta Kattai	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla	+19.9
31	16-15	MANHAT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+19.9
32	16-16	NIAGRA	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+19.9
33	16-17	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+25.6
34	16-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan		+22.5

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Manhattan def. Niagara 3–2

Abby Morreale served 4 aces, and Manhattan needed every one.