Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026

Rider def. Niagara 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Rider 71.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Rider beat visiting Niagara 3-1 (25-16, 19-25, 25-12, 25-18) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Tori Bonacci led Rider with 13 kills; Niagara's Karlotta Kattai had a match-high 14.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
NIAGRA162512181
RIDER251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

On its own serve, Rider won 49 of 93 points.

Win probability never moved more than 3.3 points on one rally; Niagara topped out at 35% in Set 3. Rider went in as RallyIQ's 72% pick.

NiagaraRider
  • Break %+15.2 pts
    37.552.7

    49 of 93 on serve vs 27 of 72, so Niagara's sideout was 47.3%.

  • Hitting+.104
    .151.255

    Kills and errors: 44–16 vs 37–21.

  • Longest run+0
    66

    6 straight Rider points in the first set turned a 9–10 deficit into a 15–10 lead. Final score of the set: 25–16.

Rider above 50Niagara belowMax swing 3.3%

NiagaraRider

Aces
Niagara 7·Rider 16
Serve err
Niagara 12·Rider 10
Blocks
Niagara 5·Rider 101 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 18 BA
Digs
Niagara 44·Rider 40

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Rider above 50 · Niagara below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.3% NIAGRArally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Niagara — set 3, NIAGRA 3-2 RIDER. Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Noel Perkins). RIDER win probability 68% → 65%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIAGRA 12.3%87.7% RIDER

Niagara wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.9%
3-2
6.8%

Rider wins

3-0
40.7%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.3%
NIAGRA break %
39.3% vs this opp
RIDER break %
48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Noel Perkins)

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 3-2 RIDER · NIAGRA 32% → 35%

  2. 02
    Rylah RobinsonAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Rylah Robinson

    Set 4 · NIAGRA 10-10 RIDER · NIAGRA 12% → 16%

  3. 03
    RiderAce+3.2%

    Rider ace on Elyannah Sonza

    Set 4 · NIAGRA 11-13 RIDER · RIDER 87% → 90%

  4. 04
    NiagaraAce+3.1%

    Niagara ace on Olivia DeSaro

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 19-16 RIDER · NIAGRA 23% → 26%

  5. 05
    Aubrey BakerKill+3.1%

    Kill by Aubrey Baker (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 3-4 RIDER · RIDER 67% → 70%

  6. 06
    Anja KellyAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Anja Kelly

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 16-14 RIDER · NIAGRA 19% → 22%

  7. 07
    Karlotta KattaiAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Karlotta Kattai

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 3-5 RIDER · RIDER 70% → 73%

  8. 08
    RiderAce+2.9%

    Rider ace on Elyannah Sonza

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 0-1 RIDER · RIDER 67% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414733.212053101010.519.5
48629.06910125010.58.5
45313.15410030010.55.5
4003.0001611600001
2003.00000000010.50.5
1113.00000010010.51.5
44315.06700000010.54.5
4000–5121650001
4001.000001140000
4000–1402300000
35051.00000220111.56.5
2011-1.00000000010.50.5
1000–000000000
Team totals3721106.15137712441618571
Riderhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413118.66711100132.516.5
47623.0430001006310
46117.294000100639
4305.600363270010.56.5
44215.133000000004
4000–141110004
411632.1560002202112
4000–041620004
4000–024520002
4000–4211700002
Team totals4416110.2554216104071181094

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Niagara vs Rider

Season series · Rider leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NIAGRA · RIDER 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRARIDER 6

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 NIAGRARIDER 4

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 2 NIAGRARIDER 6

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 4 NIAGRARIDER 4

Bars above the line = Rider leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Niagara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
29%6/21
45%5/11
2
60%6/10
40%4/10
3
60%6/10
14%1/7
4
86%6/7
14%1/7
5
75%6/8
60%9/15
6
33%4/12
50%5/10
All
50%34/68
42%25/60

Rider

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
69%11/16
2
75%6/8
57%8/14
3
86%6/7
50%6/12
4
75%6/8
33%3/9
5
40%6/15
0%0/6
6
44%4/9
55%6/11
All
58%35/60
50%34/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#NIAGRA-RIDERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.0
20-2RIDERRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.9
31-2RIDERNIAGRA×3KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.4
42-2NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.1
53-2NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.3
63-3NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.6
74-3RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.8
84-4NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.7
94-5RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Karlotta Kattai+2.2
105-5RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.7
115-6NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Simone Langford+1.7
126-6RIDERNIAGRAAttack errRylah Robinson+1.7
136-7NIAGRARIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.7
147-7RIDERNIAGRAAttack errMolly Rohde+1.8
158-7NIAGRANIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins+2.6
168-8NIAGRARIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.9
178-9RIDERRIDERBlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Rylah Robinson, Molly Rohde+2.5
189-9RIDERNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Ashley Moreland+1.9
1910-9NIAGRANIAGRABlockedAnja Kellyblk Payton Lee, Taylor Jenkins+2.8
2010-10NIAGRARIDER×6KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.0
2110-11RIDERRIDER×6KillAnja Kellyset Simone Langford+2.7
2210-12RIDERRIDER×6Attack errTaylor Jenkins+2.5
2310-13RIDERRIDER×6AceRideraced Kaitlyn Doyle+2.3
2410-14RIDERRIDER×6BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+1.9
2510-15RIDERRIDER×6BlockedPayton Leeblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+1.5
2611-15RIDERNIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.9
2711-16NIAGRARIDERAttack errKarlotta Kattai+1.1
2812-16RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.9
2912-17NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.1
3012-18RIDERRIDERBlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Tori Bonacci, Makenna Mason+1.1
3113-18RIDERNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
3213-19NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+0.7
3313-20RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Elyannah Sonza+0.6
3414-20RIDERNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.2
3515-20NIAGRANIAGRAAceNiagaraaced Rylah Robinson+0.6
3615-21NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+0.6
3716-21RIDERNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins+0.3
3816-22NIAGRARIDER×4Serve errNiagara+0.6
3916-23RIDERRIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+0.3
4016-24RIDERRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.1
4116-25RIDERRIDER×4BlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Molly Rohde, Rylah Robinson·
Set 2
11-0NIAGRANIAGRABlockedAnja Kellyblk Sole Rancy, Kaitlyn Doyle+1.8
21-1NIAGRARIDER×4BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+1.3
31-2RIDERRIDER×4BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Anja Kelly, Tori Bonacci+1.7
41-3RIDERRIDER×4KillTori Bonacci+1.6
51-4RIDERRIDER×4Attack errPayton Lee+1.5
62-4RIDERNIAGRAAttack errAnja Kelly+1.1
73-4NIAGRANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+1.6
83-5NIAGRARIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.2
93-6RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Kaitlyn Doyle+1.5
103-7RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Ashley Moreland+1.4
114-7RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Payton Lee+0.9
124-8NIAGRARIDERKillMakenna Masonset Olivia DeSaro+1.0
134-9RIDERRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.2
145-9RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+0.8
155-10NIAGRARIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.9
166-10RIDERNIAGRA×6KillKarlotta Kattaiset Kaitlyn Doyle+0.8
177-10NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.3
188-10NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.6
199-10NIAGRANIAGRA×6AceNiagaraaced Katie Cook+1.9
2010-10NIAGRANIAGRA×6BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Kadence Goolsby, Natasa Ljubicic+2.2
2111-10NIAGRANIAGRA×6AceNiagaraaced Carly Allen+2.4
2211-11NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.7
2311-12RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.3
2412-12RIDERNIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.7
2513-12NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errRylah Robinson+2.6
2613-13NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.8
2713-14RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Kaitlyn Doyle+2.5
2814-14RIDERNIAGRA×3Serve errRider+1.9
2915-14NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKaitlyn Doyleset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.8
3016-14NIAGRANIAGRA×3Attack errAnja Kelly+2.9
3116-15NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.9
3217-15RIDERNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.3
3317-16NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+2.0
3418-16RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+2.5
3519-16NIAGRANIAGRAAceNiagaraaced Olivia DeSaro+3.1
3619-17NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.8
3720-17RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+2.5
3820-18NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.8
3921-18RIDERNIAGRA×4KillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+2.6
4022-18NIAGRANIAGRA×4AceNiagaraaced Carly Allen+2.7
4123-18NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.6
4224-18NIAGRANIAGRA×4AceNiagaraaced Katie Cook+0.7
4324-19NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+0.1
4425-19RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+0.2
Set 3
10-1RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Elyannah Sonza+2.9
21-1RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.2
31-2NIAGRARIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.1
42-2RIDERNIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.3
53-2NIAGRANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+3.3
63-3NIAGRARIDER×4KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.3
73-4RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+3.1
83-5RIDERRIDER×4Attack errKarlotta Kattai+2.9
93-6RIDERRIDER×4Attack errKadence Goolsby+2.7
104-6RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+1.9
114-7NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.0
124-8RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Ashley Moreland+2.4
135-8RIDERNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Ashley Moreland+1.6
145-9NIAGRARIDER×3KillMakenna Masonset Simone Langford+1.8
155-10RIDER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
165-11RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.6
176-11RIDERNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins+1.0
186-12NIAGRARIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.2
196-13RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Ashley Moreland+1.2
206-14RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Ashley Moreland+0.8
217-14RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+0.4
227-15NIAGRARIDER×6KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.6
237-16RIDERRIDER×6Attack errSole Rancy+0.5
247-17RIDERRIDER×6KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+0.3
257-18RIDERRIDER×6KillMolly Rohde+0.2
267-19RIDERRIDER×6Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.1
277-20RIDERRIDER×6BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly·
288-20RIDERNIAGRAAttack errAubrey Baker·
298-21NIAGRARIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason·
309-21RIDERNIAGRAAttack errKarlotta Kattai·
3110-21NIAGRANIAGRABlockedTori Bonacciblk Natasa Ljubicic·
3210-22NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara·
3310-23RIDERRIDERKillMakenna Masonset Tori Bonacci·
3411-23RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider·
3511-24NIAGRARIDERAttack errKaitlyn Doyle·
3612-24RIDERNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins·
3712-25NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason·
Set 4
10-1NIAGRARIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.8
20-2RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.3
31-2RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+1.7
42-2NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errAubrey Baker+2.5
52-3NIAGRARIDER×3Serve errNiagara+1.9
62-4RIDERRIDER×3BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Tori Bonacci+2.4
72-5RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Kaitlyn Doyle+2.2
83-5RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.6
93-6NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.6
103-7RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.0
114-7RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+1.4
125-7NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errRylah Robinson+2.2
135-8NIAGRARIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.7
146-8RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+1.7
156-9NIAGRARIDERServe errNiagara+1.8
166-10RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Kaitlyn Doyle+2.1
177-10RIDERNIAGRA×4KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.4
188-10NIAGRANIAGRA×4AceNiagaraaced Rylah Robinson+2.3
199-10NIAGRANIAGRA×4KillKaitlyn Doyleset Ashley Moreland+2.8
2010-10NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errRylah Robinson+3.2
2110-11NIAGRARIDERAttack errPayton Lee+2.4
2211-11RIDERNIAGRAAttack errAnja Kelly+2.5
2311-12NIAGRARIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.5
2411-13RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Elyannah Sonza+3.2
2511-14RIDERRIDER×4BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Anja Kelly, Tori Bonacci+2.8
2611-15RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Elyannah Sonza+2.4
2712-15RIDERNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.5
2812-16NIAGRARIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.8
2913-16RIDERNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.5
3013-17NIAGRARIDERBad setAshley Moreland+1.8
3114-17RIDERNIAGRAServe errRider+1.5
3214-18NIAGRARIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.8
3315-18RIDERNIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+1.5
3415-19NIAGRARIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.9
3516-19RIDERNIAGRAAttack errRylah Robinson+1.4
3616-20NIAGRARIDER×4Attack errKaitlyn Doyle+1.9
3716-21RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Simone Langford+1.7
3816-22RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Ashley Moreland+0.9
3916-23RIDERRIDER×4KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+0.4
4017-23RIDERNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
4118-23NIAGRANIAGRABlockedAnja Kellyblk Karlotta Kattai, Jakayla Brown+0.3
4218-24NIAGRARIDERAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.4
4318-25RIDERRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).