FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

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3:0

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Valparaiso def. Niagara 3–0

(25-16, 25-18, 25-16)

Set	1*	2*	3*	Sets
VALPO	25	25	25	3
NIAGRA	16	18	16	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIAGRA above 50 · VALPO below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Niagara — set 1, VALPO 7-8 NIAGRA. Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed). NIAGRA win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

VALPO 99.1%0.9% NIAGRA

Valparaiso wins

3-0

75.3%

3-1

20.4%

3-2

3.5%

Niagara wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

VALPO break %: 52.1% vs this opp
NIAGRA break %: 33.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.3%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · VALPO 7-8 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
02
Chloe MorelandKill+0.3%
Kill by Chloe Moreland (set by Kadence Goolsby)
Set 1 · VALPO 11-11 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
03
NIAGRA serverAce+0.2%
Niagara ace on Team
Set 2 · VALPO 1-6 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
04
Maggie UhwatKill+0.2%
Kill by Maggie Uhwat (set by Mia McCall)
Set 1 · VALPO 9-8 NIAGRA · VALPO 99% → 99%
05
Maggie UhwatKill+0.2%
Kill by Maggie Uhwat (set by Mia McCall)
Set 1 · VALPO 13-11 NIAGRA · VALPO 99% → 99%
06
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.2%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · VALPO 7-7 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
07
Katelynn RottmanKill+0.2%
Kill by Katelynn Rottman
Set 2 · VALPO 1-5 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
08
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.2%
Point Niagara (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · VALPO 3-8 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Valparaisoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Jordyn GoveOH	3	13	2	35	.314	2	2	0	12	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
11Maggie UhwatOH	3	9	4	30	.167	1	3	2	5	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
10Ava HelmingOH	3	10	1	19	.474	1	0	1	10	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
27Jessica PickettMB	3	5	0	7	.714	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
12Maddie SteeleMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	1	3
2Olivia WagnerS	2	0	0	2	.000	14	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
17Danica GochDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
1Rylee BumgardnerL/DS	3	0	0	5	.000	2	0	0	14	1	0	0	0	0
31Mia LibertiDS	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	0
6Mia McCallS	2	3	0	8	.375	8	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	4
7Mara ThomasS	2	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
18Maddie KmetzS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	10	114	.272	38	11	5	62	6	2	6	5	75

Niagarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Payton LeeOH	3	8	6	23	.087	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
13Kaitlyn DoyleOH	3	4	0	16	.250	1	2	3	13	3	0	0	0	6
18Katelynn RottmanOH	3	4	5	23	-.043	1	0	0	10	3	1	0	1	5
7Taylor JenkinsMB	3	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	3	1	0	4	.250	11	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
6Sole RancyMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	3	3	2	22	.045	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	4
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	3	0	0	5	.000	3	1	2	12	0	0	0	0	1
14Noel PerkinsOH	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
11Chloe MorelandOH	2	3	2	11	.091	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3
1Natasa LjubicicMB	2	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		27	15	116	.103	25	6	5	52	11	3	6	6	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 VALPO · NIAGRA 4

Set 1*

25-16

Longest run 5 VALPONIAGRA 3

Set 2*

25-18

Longest run 7 VALPONIAGRA 4

Set 3*

25-16

Longest run 5 VALPONIAGRA 3

Bars above the line = Niagara leads, below = Valparaiso leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Valparaiso

No clean sets to split.

Niagara

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	VALPO-NIAGRA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIAGRA	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming		+0.1
2	2-0	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.1
3	3-0	VALPO	VALPO×3	Bad set	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.1
4	3-1	VALPO	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Ashley Moreland	+0.1
5	3-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
6	3-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Team	+0.2
7	4-3	NIAGRA	VALPO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
8	5-3	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	VALPO server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.1
9	5-4	VALPO	NIAGRA	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.1
10	6-4	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
11	6-5	VALPO	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
12	7-5	NIAGRA	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
13	7-6	VALPO	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
14	7-7	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
15	7-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
16	8-8	NIAGRA	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
17	9-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mia McCall	+0.2
18	10-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.2
19	11-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Mia McCall		+0.1
20	11-9	VALPO	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
21	11-10	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
22	11-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Kadence Goolsby	+0.3
23	12-11	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.2
24	13-11	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mia McCall	+0.2
25	13-12	VALPO	NIAGRA	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.2
26	14-12	NIAGRA	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
27	15-12	VALPO	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
28	15-13	VALPO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Sole Rancy, Kadence Goolsby	+0.1
29	16-13	NIAGRA	VALPO×5	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
30	17-13	VALPO	VALPO×5	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
31	18-13	VALPO	VALPO×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
32	19-13	VALPO	VALPO×5	Ace	VALPO server	aced Chloe Moreland	+0.0
33	20-13	VALPO	VALPO×5	Kill	Ava Helming		+0.0
34	20-14	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
35	21-14	NIAGRA	VALPO	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Ava Helming, Maddie Steele	+0.0
36	21-15	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
37	22-15	NIAGRA	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming		+0.0
38	23-15	VALPO	VALPO×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
39	24-15	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.0
40	24-16	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Taylor Jenkins	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
41	25-16	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia Liberti	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee		+0.1
2	0-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.1
3	1-2	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.1
4	1-3	VALPO	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.1
5	1-4	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
6	1-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Katelynn Rottman		+0.2
7	1-6	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Team	+0.2
8	2-6	NIAGRA	VALPO	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.1
9	2-7	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
10	3-7	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.1
11	3-8	VALPO	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
12	4-8	NIAGRA	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
13	5-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
14	6-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
15	7-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
16	7-9	VALPO	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
17	8-9	NIAGRA	VALPO×7	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
18	9-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
19	10-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.1
20	11-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
21	12-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
22	13-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Jordyn Gove	+0.1
23	14-9	VALPO	VALPO×7	Kill	Mia McCall	set Mara Thomas	+0.0
24	14-10	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
25	14-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
26	15-11	NIAGRA	VALPO	Bad set	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.0
27	16-11	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	VALPO server	aced Team	+0.0
28	16-12	VALPO	NIAGRA×4	Kill	Natasa Ljubicic	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
29	16-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
30	16-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Payton Lee	+0.1
31	16-15	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×4	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
32	17-15	NIAGRA	VALPO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
33	17-16	VALPO	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
34	18-16	NIAGRA	VALPO×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
35	19-16	VALPO	VALPO×5	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.1
36	20-16	VALPO	VALPO×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
37	21-16	VALPO	VALPO×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
38	22-16	VALPO	VALPO×5	Ace	VALPO server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.0
39	22-17	VALPO	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
40	23-17	NIAGRA	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
41	23-18	VALPO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Ava Helming	blk Katelynn Rottman	+0.0
42	24-18	NIAGRA	VALPO	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Ava Helming	+0.0
43	25-18	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NIAGRA	VALPO×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
2	2-0	VALPO	VALPO×4	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
3	3-0	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Team	+0.0
4	4-0	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
5	4-1	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.0
6	4-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Rylee Bumgardner	+0.0
7	5-2	NIAGRA	VALPO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
8	5-3	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Natasa Ljubicic	+0.0
9	6-3	NIAGRA	VALPO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
10	7-3	VALPO	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
11	7-4	VALPO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.0
12	8-4	NIAGRA	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
13	9-4	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
14	9-5	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
15	10-5	NIAGRA	VALPO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
16	10-6	VALPO	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Taylor Jenkins		+0.0
17	10-7	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
18	10-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
19	11-8	NIAGRA	VALPO×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
20	12-8	VALPO	VALPO×5	Kill	Ava Helming		+0.0
21	13-8	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
22	14-8	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
23	15-8	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
24	15-9	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
25	16-9	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
26	16-10	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
27	17-10	NIAGRA	VALPO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
28	18-10	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
29	18-11	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
30	19-11	NIAGRA	VALPO×3	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
31	20-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
32	21-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Ava Helming	+0.0
33	21-12	VALPO	NIAGRA	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
34	22-12	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
35	22-13	VALPO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
36	22-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Bad set	Olivia Wagner		+0.0
37	23-14	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
38	24-14	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Jordyn Gove	+0.0
39	24-15	VALPO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Maddie Steele	blk Natasa Ljubicic	+0.0
40	24-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
41	25-16	NIAGRA	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Valparaiso first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.