FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Marshall def. Morehead St. 3–0

(25-16, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MOREST	16	21	20	0
MARSH	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MARSH above 50 · MOREST below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Marshall — set 2, MOREST 17-20 MARSH. Marshall ace on Ella Warrick. MARSH win probability 83% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MOREST 40.1%59.9% MARSH

Morehead St. wins

3-0

8.8%

3-1

14.6%

3-2

16.7%

Marshall wins

3-0

17.2%

3-1

22.9%

3-2

19.9%

MOREST break %: 40.9% vs this opp
MARSH break %: 42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MARSH serverAce+3.3%
Marshall ace on Ella Warrick
Set 2 · MOREST 17-20 MARSH · MARSH 83% → 86%
02
Hollan EverettKill+3.3%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Courtney Fitzgerald)
Set 2 · MOREST 17-18 MARSH · MOREST 17% → 20%
03
Maddie SmithKill+3.1%
Kill by Maddie Smith (set by Emma Sayre)
Set 2 · MOREST 13-15 MARSH · MARSH 78% → 82%
04
Emma BarnettAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Emma Barnett
Set 2 · MOREST 13-13 MARSH · MOREST 21% → 24%
05
Kahea CarvalhoKill+2.8%
Kill by Kahea Carvalho (set by Maddie Smith)
Set 2 · MOREST 13-16 MARSH · MARSH 82% → 84%
06
Sydney SennettBad set+2.8%
Bad set by Sydney Sennett
Set 2 · MOREST 10-12 MARSH · MARSH 78% → 81%
07
Maddie SmithKill+2.7%
Kill by Maddie Smith (set by Kahea Carvalho)
Set 2 · MOREST 17-19 MARSH · MARSH 80% → 83%
08
Beatrice CiccarelliAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Beatrice Ciccarelli
Set 2 · MOREST 12-13 MARSH · MOREST 18% → 21%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Morehead St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Hollan EverettMB	3	15	4	36	.306	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	15.5
5Ella WarrickOH	3	9	7	30	.067	0	0	0	8	2	2	1	2.5	11.5
9Amelia NottMB	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	1	6
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	4	1	9	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	2	.000	14	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
7Kylie SharpMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Riley McCloskeyOH	3	2	3	12	-.083	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	18	2	0	0	0	0
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
15Anna SchiltzMB	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Reagan BaxterMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
10Kennedy TinchDS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	21	113	.133	36	2	6	49	7	2	6	5	57

Marshallhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Maddie SmithOH	3	17	3	36	.389	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	17
11Emma BarnettOH	3	9	4	33	.152	0	2	0	8	1	0	0	0	11
5Beatrice CiccarelliMB	3	4	3	14	.071	0	2	1	4	0	2	2	3	9
15Logan HendersonOPP	3	7	4	14	.214	1	1	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
23Kahea CarvalhoS	3	1	0	3	.333	28	1	0	11	0	0	2	1	3
16Marae ReillyMB	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
4Emma SayreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	1
19Addison SaundersL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Kylie WongL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Maya HuntS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Peyton SasseMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	15	109	.229	37	7	3	48	2	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MOREST · MARSH 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 MORESTMARSH 6

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 MORESTMARSH 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 MORESTMARSH 4

Bars above the line = Marshall leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	45%5/11
2	47%7/15	36%4/11
3	40%6/15	50%7/14
4	50%6/12	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	33%3/9
6	63%5/8	0%0/5
All	49%36/74	36%21/58

Marshall

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	50%7/14
2	78%7/9	65%13/20
3	50%6/12	54%7/13
4	60%6/10	45%5/11
5	100%5/5	50%5/10
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	64%37/58	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	MOREST-MARSH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+1.8
2	1-1	MOREST	MARSH×6	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.8
3	1-2	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+2.5
4	1-3	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.4
5	1-4	MARSH	MARSH×6	Ace	MARSH server	aced Team	+2.3
6	1-5	MARSH	MARSH×6	Attack err	Kylie Sharp		+2.1
7	1-6	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.8
8	2-6	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+1.1
9	2-7	MOREST	MARSH	Serve err	MOREST server		+1.3
10	2-8	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.5
11	3-8	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.9
12	3-9	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.1
13	3-10	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.2
14	4-10	MARSH	MOREST×3	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.7
15	5-10	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+1.2
16	6-10	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+1.6
17	6-11	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.4
18	6-12	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+1.5
19	7-12	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+0.9
20	7-13	MOREST	MARSH	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+1.1
21	7-14	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.1
22	8-14	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.6
23	9-14	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Maddie Smith	+1.1
24	9-15	MOREST	MARSH×3	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.1
25	9-16	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.1
26	9-17	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Amelia Nott	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli	+0.7
27	10-17	MARSH	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
28	11-17	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
29	12-17	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+1.0
30	12-18	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
31	13-18	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
32	13-19	MOREST	MARSH×5	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
33	13-20	MARSH	MARSH×5	Ace	MARSH server	aced Hollan Everett	+0.8
34	13-21	MARSH	MARSH×5	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.4
35	13-22	MARSH	MARSH×5	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.2
36	13-23	MARSH	MARSH×5	Ace	MARSH server	aced Ella Warrick	+0.1
37	14-23	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.0
38	15-23	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Riley McCloskey	+0.0
39	15-24	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
40	16-24	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+0.0
41	16-25	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+2.3
2	1-1	MOREST	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.6
3	1-2	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Amelia Nott	+2.2
4	1-3	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.2
5	2-3	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+1.5
6	2-4	MOREST	MARSH	Serve err	MOREST server		+1.6
7	3-4	MARSH	MOREST×4	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.6
8	4-4	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+2.3
9	5-4	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Logan Henderson	blk Haidyn Carter, Hollan Everett	+2.5
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	MOREST server	aced Emma Barnett	+2.5
11	6-5	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.7
12	7-5	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.9
13	8-5	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Anna Schiltz	set Josie Certa	+2.5
14	8-6	MOREST	MARSH×4	Attack err	Anna Schiltz		+1.6
15	8-7	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.5
16	8-8	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Anna Schiltz		+2.6
17	8-9	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+2.7
18	9-9	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.9
19	9-10	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.0
20	10-10	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+2.0
21	10-11	MOREST	MARSH×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Kahea Carvalho	+2.0
22	10-12	MARSH	MARSH×3	Bad set	Sydney Sennett		+2.8
23	10-13	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.5
24	11-13	MARSH	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+1.7
25	12-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+2.7
26	13-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+3.1
27	13-14	MOREST	MARSH×4	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.3
28	13-15	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+3.1
29	13-16	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Kahea Carvalho	set Maddie Smith	+2.8
30	13-17	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+2.3
31	14-17	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Logan Henderson		+1.3
32	14-18	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.7
33	15-18	MARSH	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Haidyn Carter	+1.3
34	16-18	MOREST	MOREST×3	Bad set	Kahea Carvalho		+2.5
35	17-18	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+3.3
36	17-19	MOREST	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.7
37	17-20	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Ella Warrick	+3.3
38	17-21	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+2.5
39	18-21	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.1
40	18-22	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.7
41	19-22	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.0
42	19-23	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.6
43	20-23	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli	blk Ella Warrick	+0.8
44	20-24	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Emma Sayre	+1.5
45	21-24	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
46	21-25	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+1.3
2	1-1	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.9
3	2-1	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.4
4	2-2	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
5	3-2	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+1.0
6	3-3	MOREST	MARSH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+1.0
7	4-3	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
8	4-4	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
9	5-4	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+1.1
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Marae Reilly		+1.5
11	6-5	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+1.0
12	6-6	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Kahea Carvalho, Marae Reilly	+1.5
13	7-6	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+1.1
14	7-7	MOREST	MARSH	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+1.1
15	8-7	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.2
16	8-8	MOREST	MARSH×3	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Ella Warrick	+1.1
17	8-9	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.6
18	8-10	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Logan Henderson	+1.5
19	9-10	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+1.1
20	9-11	MOREST	MARSH×4	Serve err	MOREST server		+1.1
21	9-12	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Amelia Nott	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli	+1.5
22	9-13	MARSH	MARSH×4	Ace	MARSH server	aced Tinsley Brown	+1.3
23	9-14	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+1.1
24	10-14	MARSH	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.6
25	11-14	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.1
26	12-14	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Logan Henderson	blk Amelia Nott, Ella Warrick	+1.4
27	12-15	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+1.2
28	12-16	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+1.4
29	13-16	MARSH	MOREST	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.8
30	13-17	MOREST	MARSH×3	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Logan Henderson	+1.0
31	13-18	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.1
32	13-19	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.7
33	14-19	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
34	14-20	MOREST	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.5
35	15-20	MARSH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Kennedy Tinch	+0.3
36	15-21	MOREST	MARSH	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.4
37	16-21	MARSH	MOREST	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.2
38	17-21	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.6
39	17-22	MOREST	MARSH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.6
40	18-22	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Logan Henderson	blk Ella Warrick	+0.3
41	19-22	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.8
42	19-23	MOREST	MARSH	Serve err	MOREST server		+1.0
43	20-23	MARSH	MOREST	Attack err	Maddie Smith	blk Reagan Baxter, Amelia Nott	+0.5
44	20-24	MOREST	MARSH	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.9
45	20-25	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kylie Wong	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.