Final · 4 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on ESPN+

App State def. Marshall 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: App State 66.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

App State beat visiting Marshall 3-1 (18-25, 26-24, 25-12, 25-19) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Bella Hutchens led App State with 15 kills; Marshall's Maddie Smith had a match-high 19.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set1234Sets
MARSH252412191
APP ST182625253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

App State held off Marshall.

The match turned twice. Numbers are App State's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had App State at 66%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Marshall 21–11 App State

    Down 11–21, App State scored 9 straight to pull within 20–21.

    App State 20% → 35%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Marshall 23–23 App State

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to App State, enough to take the set 26–24 and level the match at 1–1. The match swung to App State.

    App State 41% → 63%

App State above 50Marshall belowMax swing 11.1%

MarshallApp State

Sideout %
Marshall 49.5·App State 58.0
Break %
Marshall 42.0·App State 50.5
Hitting
Marshall .186·App State .246
Longest run
Marshall 6·App State 9

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

App State above 50 · Marshall below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.1% APP STrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.1% to App State — set 2, MARSH 24-25 APP ST. Attack error by Marae Reilly. APP ST win probability 41% → 52%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARSH 30.0%70.0% APP ST

Marshall wins

3-0
5.7%
3-1
10.5%
3-2
13.8%

App State wins

3-0
23.3%
3-1
26.9%
3-2
19.9%
MARSH break %
39.6% vs this opp
APP ST break %
43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Marae ReillyAttack error+11.1%

    Attack error by Marae Reilly

    Set 2 · MARSH 24-25 APP ST · APP ST 41% → 52%

  2. 02
    Marae ReillyAttack error+10.3%

    Attack error by Marae Reilly

    Set 2 · MARSH 24-26 APP ST · APP ST 52% → 63%

  3. 03
    Nevaeh HaysBlock+8.9%

    Marae Reilly stuffed by Nevaeh Hays

    Set 2 · MARSH 23-23 APP ST · APP ST 32% → 41%

  4. 04
    Maddie SmithKill+8.5%

    Kill by Maddie Smith (set by Isabella Nieves)

    Set 2 · MARSH 24-23 APP ST · MARSH 59% → 67%

  5. 05
    Emma BarnettAttack error+8.5%

    Attack error by Emma Barnett

    Set 2 · MARSH 24-24 APP ST · APP ST 33% → 41%

  6. 06

    Kill by Logan Henderson (set by Isabella Nieves)

    Set 2 · MARSH 23-21 APP ST · MARSH 66% → 72%

  7. 07
    App StateAce+5.3%

    App State ace

    Set 2 · MARSH 21-20 APP ST · APP ST 30% → 35%

  8. 08

    Brooke Doherty stuffed by Logan Henderson & Beatrice Ciccarelli

    Set 2 · MARSH 22-20 APP ST · MARSH 65% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419854.2040015200019
47422.13601030031.59.5
46218.222100101228
43222.045103121010.53.5
4014-.250000000211
4000–2201600000
49119.4210000002110
3001.0001210300001
3000–010300001
3000–3001210000
2000–100610000
1000–301100000
Team totals4418140.1864336529110680
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415633.27303110100018
414634.23501260010.515.5
411227.3330301000014
411318.4440010006314
41211-.0914411160052.54.5
1124-.250000000001
4002.0008102400001
4000–100420000
35213.231000302027
2000–001100000
Team totals5823142.2465396653212894

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Marshall vs App State

Season series · App State leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MARSH · APP ST 9

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 MARSHAPP ST 5

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 6 MARSHAPP ST 9

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 2 MARSHAPP ST 6

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 MARSHAPP ST 4

Bars above the line = App State leads, below = Marshall leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marshall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%6/13
60%9/15
2
75%6/8
25%2/8
3
32%6/19
57%8/14
4
38%6/16
0%0/6
5
56%5/9
33%3/9
6
44%4/9
0%0/5
All
45%33/74
39%22/57

App State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%7/16
62%8/13
2
67%6/9
33%3/9
3
46%6/13
45%5/11
4
86%6/7
73%16/22
5
71%5/7
50%5/10
6
100%5/5
44%4/9
All
61%35/57
55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#MARSH-APP STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0APP STMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+1.7
21-1MARSHAPP STKillLou Johnsonset Raegan Richardson+1.7
32-1APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+1.8
42-2MARSHAPP STServe errEmma Barnett+1.7
53-2APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+1.8
63-3MARSHAPP STKillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+1.7
74-3APP STMARSHAttack errBella Hutchens+1.8
84-4MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+1.8
95-4APP STMARSHServe errBrooke Doherty+1.9
106-4MARSHMARSHAttack errRaegan Richardson+2.7
116-5APP ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
127-5APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Isabella Nieves+2.0
138-5MARSHMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+2.8
148-6MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+1.8
159-6APP STMARSH×3Bad setMeMe Davis+2.1
1610-6MARSHMARSH×3BlockedLou Johnsonblk Lia Beverly, Marae Reilly+2.7
1711-6MARSHMARSH×3BlockedBella Hutchensblk Marae Reilly, Emma Barnett+2.4
1811-7MARSHAPP ST×5KillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+1.4
1911-8APP STAPP ST×5KillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+2.3
2011-9APP STAPP ST×5KillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+2.7
2111-10APP STAPP ST×5AceApp State+2.9
2211-11APP STAPP ST×5AceApp State+3.1
2312-11APP STMARSH×4KillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+2.4
2413-11MARSHMARSH×4KillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+3.3
2514-11MARSHMARSH×4BlockedLou Johnsonblk Lia Beverly, Marae Reilly+3.3
2615-11MARSHMARSH×4Bad setBrooke Doherty+3.0
2715-12MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+1.7
2816-12APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
2916-13MARSHAPP ST×3KillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+1.7
3016-14APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMaddie Smith+3.0
3116-15APP STAPP ST×3KillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+3.4
3217-15APP STMARSH×5KillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+2.9
3318-15MARSHMARSH×5KillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+3.8
3419-15MARSHMARSH×5Attack errBrooke Doherty+3.2
3520-15MARSHMARSH×5KillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+2.4
3621-15MARSHMARSH×5KillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Raegan Richardson+1.6
3721-16MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+0.6
3822-16APP STMARSHBlockedChelsea Gilmoreblk Beatrice Ciccarelli+1.0
3922-17MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+0.4
4023-17APP STMARSHAttack errBella Hutchens+0.8
4124-17MARSHMARSHAceKylie Wongaced Caroline Farthing+0.4
4224-18MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson·
4325-18APP STMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+0.1
Set 2
11-0MARSHMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Addison Saunders+2.9
22-0MARSHMARSHAttack errBella Hutchens+3.0
32-1MARSHAPP STKillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+2.0
43-1APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
54-1MARSHMARSHAttack errNevaeh Hays+3.1
64-2MARSHAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+2.0
75-2APP STMARSH×3KillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+2.3
86-2MARSHMARSH×3KillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+3.0
97-2MARSHMARSH×3Attack errBella Hutchens+2.8
107-3MARSHAPP STKillDelanie Grevengoedset MeMe Davis+1.7
118-3APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Emma Barnett+2.1
128-4MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.7
138-5APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Caroline Farthing+2.7
149-5APP STMARSHServe errBrooke Doherty+2.3
159-6MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.0
169-7APP STAPP STKillRaegan Richardsonset Isabella Nieves+3.1
1710-7APP STMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+2.6
1810-8MARSHAPP STAttack errMaddie Smith+2.2
1911-8APP STMARSH×4Serve errRaegan Richardson+2.6
2012-8MARSHMARSH×4KillMaddie Smithset Addison Saunders+3.4
2113-8MARSHMARSH×4KillMaddie Smithset Addison Saunders+3.0
2214-8MARSHMARSH×4Bad setRaegan Richardson+2.5
2314-9MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.3
2414-10APP STAPP STKillBrooke Dohertyset MeMe Davis+2.4
2515-10APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
2615-11MARSHAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.7
2716-11APP STMARSH×6KillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
2817-11MARSHMARSH×6AceIsabella Nievesaced Bella Hutchens+2.4
2918-11MARSHMARSH×6Attack errBrooke Doherty+1.7
3019-11MARSHMARSH×6Attack errBrooke Doherty+1.1
3120-11MARSHMARSH×6Attack errBrooke Doherty+0.6
3221-11MARSHMARSH×6Attack errChelsea Gilmore+0.3
3321-12MARSHAPP ST×9KillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+0.1
3421-13APP STAPP ST×9BlockedBeatrice Ciccarelliblk Raegan Richardson, Chelsea Gilmore+0.2
3521-14APP STAPP ST×9Attack errLogan Henderson+0.3
3621-15APP STAPP ST×9BlockedMaddie Smithblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+0.6
3721-16APP STAPP ST×9BlockedMaddie Smithblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+1.0
3821-17APP STAPP ST×9KillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.6
3921-18APP STAPP ST×9BlockedMaddie Smithblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+2.5
4021-19APP STAPP ST×9KillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+3.8
4121-20APP STAPP ST×9AceApp State+5.3
4222-20APP STMARSHBlockedBrooke Dohertyblk Logan Henderson, Beatrice Ciccarelli+5.1
4322-21MARSHAPP STServe errMaddie Smith+3.9
4423-21APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Isabella Nieves+5.8
4523-22MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+4.0
4623-23APP STAPP STBlockedMarae Reillyblk Nevaeh Hays+8.9
4724-23APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+8.5
4824-24MARSHAPP ST×3Attack errEmma Barnett+8.5
4924-25APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMarae Reilly+11.1
5024-26APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMarae Reilly+10.3
Set 3
10-1APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+3.1
20-2APP STAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Kahea Carvalho+3.0
31-2APP STMARSHAttack errBella Hutchens+2.1
41-3MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.2
52-3APP STMARSHServe errBella Hutchens+2.2
62-4MARSHAPP STKillDelanie Grevengoedset MeMe Davis+2.2
72-5APP STAPP STAceApp State+2.9
83-5APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
93-6MARSHAPP STServe errMaya Hunt+2.1
103-7APP STAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Maya Hunt+2.6
114-7APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Maya Hunt+1.7
125-7MARSHMARSHAttack errBrooke Doherty+2.8
135-8MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.2
145-9APP STAPP STAceApp Stateaced Addison Saunders+2.7
156-9APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Maya Hunt+1.8
166-10MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.0
176-11APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.3
187-11APP STMARSHServe errChelsea Gilmore+1.4
197-12MARSHAPP ST×3KillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.7
207-13APP STAPP ST×3KillDelanie Grevengoedset MeMe Davis+1.8
217-14APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMaddie Smith+1.3
228-14APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+0.7
238-15MARSHAPP STServe errEmma Barnett+0.9
249-15APP STMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+0.7
2510-15MARSHMARSHAttack errRaegan Richardson+1.3
2610-16MARSHAPP ST×3KillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.3
2710-17APP STAPP ST×3KillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.2
2810-18APP STAPP ST×3KillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+0.7
2911-18APP STMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+0.3
3011-19MARSHAPP ST×6KillBrooke Dohertyset MeMe Davis+0.5
3111-20APP STAPP ST×6BlockedLia Beverlyblk Chelsea Gilmore, Brooke Doherty+0.3
3211-21APP STAPP ST×6KillBrooke Dohertyset MeMe Davis+0.1
3311-22APP STAPP ST×6Attack errMaddie Smith+0.1
3411-23APP STAPP ST×6AceApp Stateaced Emma Barnett·
3511-24APP STAPP ST×6AceApp Stateaced Maddie Smith·
3612-24APP STMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Maya Hunt·
3712-25MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson·
Set 4
11-0MARSHMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+2.9
21-1MARSHAPP STKillDelanie Grevengoedset Raegan Richardson+2.0
31-2APP STAPP STBad setLogan Henderson+2.8
42-2APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
53-2MARSHMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+3.0
63-3MARSHAPP ST×3KillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+2.1
73-4APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMarae Reilly+2.9
83-5APP STAPP ST×3KillDelanie Grevengoedset MeMe Davis+2.8
94-5APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
104-6MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.0
115-6APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+2.0
125-7MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.1
136-7APP STMARSHAttack errBrooke Doherty+2.1
147-7MARSHMARSHAttack errChelsea Gilmore+3.2
157-8MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.3
168-8APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Beatrice Ciccarelli+2.4
178-9MARSHAPP STServe errKahea Carvalho+2.4
188-10APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+3.2
199-10APP STMARSH×3KillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
2010-10MARSHMARSH×3Attack errNevaeh Hays+3.5
2111-10MARSHMARSH×3Attack errDelanie Grevengoed+3.8
2211-11MARSHAPP STServe errEmma Barnett+2.6
2311-12APP STAPP STAceApp Stateaced Emma Sayre+3.7
2412-12APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.7
2512-13MARSHAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+2.8
2613-13APP STMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Emma Sayre+2.8
2713-14MARSHAPP ST×3KillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+2.9
2813-15APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMaddie Smith+3.9
2913-16APP STAPP ST×3KillBrooke Dohertyset Raegan Richardson+3.4
3014-16APP STMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+2.2
3114-17MARSHAPP ST×4Bad setIsabella Nieves+2.5
3214-18APP STAPP ST×4Attack errEmma Barnett+2.9
3314-19APP STAPP ST×4KillBella Hutchensset MeMe Davis+2.1
3414-20APP STAPP ST×4Bad setIsabella Nieves+1.3
3515-20APP STMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+0.5
3616-20MARSHMARSHAceMarae Reillyaced Caroline Farthing+1.3
3716-21MARSHAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.4
3816-22APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.0
3917-22APP STMARSHServe errBella Dafforn+0.3
4017-23MARSHAPP STBlockedBeatrice Ciccarelliblk Nevaeh Hays+0.6
4117-24APP STAPP STAceApp Stateaced Maddie Smith+0.3
4218-24APP STMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho·
4319-24MARSHMARSHBlockedDelanie Grevengoedblk Logan Henderson, Beatrice Ciccarelli+0.1
4419-25MARSHAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Marshall first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).