New Mexico State def. Jacksonville State 3-0 (Oct 17)

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: New Mexico St. 98.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Mexico St. beat visiting Jacksonville St. 3-0 (25-18, 25-17, 25-15) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. New Mexico St.'s Tess Fuqua led with 12 kills, and Makayla Martinez added 10 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:20 PM CT · final Oct 17

Set	1	2	3	Sets
JAX ST	18	17	15	0
NM ST	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

New Mexico St. held Jacksonville St. under 20 in every set.

No single rally moved win probability more than 0.5 points. Jacksonville St. peaked at 2% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave New Mexico St. 98% before first serve.

Jacksonville St.New Mexico St.

Break %+22.6 pts
30.853.4
Points won on own serve: 39 of 73 vs 16 of 52. Jacksonville St. sided out 46.6% of the time.
Hitting+.247
.033.280
41 kills, 15 errors vs 22 kills, 19 errors.
Longest run+4
37
7 straight New Mexico St. points in the first set turned a 0–1 deficit into a 7–1 lead. The set finished 25–18.

New Mexico St. above 50Jacksonville St. belowMax swing 0.5%

Jacksonville St.New Mexico St.

Aces: Jacksonville St. 3·New Mexico St. 5
Serve err: Jacksonville St. 8·New Mexico St. 9
Blocks: Jacksonville St. 5·New Mexico St. 51 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs: Jacksonville St. 29·New Mexico St. 45

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Mexico St. above 50 · Jacksonville St. below

No single rally moved win probability by a full point: New Mexico St. stayed the heavy favorite throughout.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

JAX ST 2.0%98.0% NM ST

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.5%

3-2

1.3%

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

67.3%

3-1

25.0%

3-2

5.8%

JAX ST break %: 36.1% vs this opp
NM ST break %: 51.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Box score

Official NCAA box

Jacksonville St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sophia SchweikertOH	3	7	7	27	.000	0	1	4	7	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
8Lauren BuchananOH	3	6	8	25	-.080	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	8
13Taya NordmannMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
6Anna RayOH	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
23Sofia VarelaS	3	1	0	6	.167	15	0	1	6	0	1	2	2	3
5Izzy WhittakerOH	3	1	2	15	-.067	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
11Reese TiesingDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Gemma MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
4Mia DuongL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
9Azavia ThomasOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17D'Yanna SpicerMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	19	92	.033	19	3	8	29	5	1	8	5	50

New Mexico St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Tess FuquaOH	3	12	4	26	.308	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	12
11Jaelynn KohliOH	3	9	2	18	.389	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	11.5
8Ashley HermanOH	3	7	2	16	.313	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
2Maggie LightheartOH	3	8	7	23	.043	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	8
7Mia FoxMB	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Paige NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	0
10Katrina CatalanS	3	0	0	0	–	8	3	3	8	0	0	0	0	3
16Kate SinclairMB	3	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	2	10	0	0	0	0	1
3Bella CastroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
6Emmy NicholasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Izzy MenesesDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Lilli SaldivarOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
15Emma ClawsonOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30Jacqueline CorcoranOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	15	93	.280	37	5	9	45	3	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Jacksonville St. vs New Mexico St.

Season series · New Mexico St. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 16, 2026Jacksonville St. at New Mexico St. · New Mexico St. won 3-0Result →
Sat, Oct 17, 2026Jacksonville St. at New Mexico St. · New Mexico St. won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 JAX ST · NM ST 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 JAX STNM ST 7

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 JAX STNM ST 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 JAX STNM ST 6

Bars above the line = New Mexico St. leads, below = Jacksonville St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Jacksonville St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	29%4/14	17%1/6
2	67%4/6	20%1/5
3	50%4/8	33%2/6
4	80%4/5	43%3/7
5	50%4/8	20%1/5
6	50%4/8	43%3/7
All	49%24/49	31%11/36

New Mexico St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%5/6	43%3/7
2	57%4/7	69%9/13
3	67%4/6	50%4/8
4	67%4/6	33%2/6
5	100%4/4	43%3/7
6	57%4/7	50%4/8
All	69%25/36	51%25/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

125 rallies

#	JAX ST-NM ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer
Set 1
1	1-0	JAX ST	JAX ST	Bad set	Paige Nelson
2	1-1	JAX ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson
3	1-2	NM ST	NM ST×7	Blocked	Izzy Whittaker	blk Jaelynn Kohli
4	1-3	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
5	1-4	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson
6	1-5	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson
7	1-6	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez
8	1-7	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Tess Fuqua
9	2-7	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	New Mexico St.
10	2-8	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
11	2-9	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
12	3-9	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	New Mexico St.
13	3-10	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson
14	4-10	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela
15	4-11	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan
16	5-11	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
17	5-12	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan
18	5-13	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Kate Sinclair
19	6-13	NM ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela
20	7-13	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Blocked	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Sofia Varela
21	8-13	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart
22	8-14	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan
23	8-15	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert
24	9-15	NM ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart
25	9-16	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Jacksonville St.
26	10-16	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
27	11-16	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	Lauren Buchanan	aced Tess Fuqua
28	11-17	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson
29	12-17	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Izzy Whittaker
30	12-18	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Paige Nelson
31	12-19	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	Katrina Catalan	aced Sophia Schweikert
32	13-19	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	New Mexico St.
33	14-19	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Tess Fuqua
34	14-20	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan
35	15-20	NM ST	JAX ST	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Sofia Varela, Taya Nordmann
36	15-21	JAX ST	NM ST	Attack err	Sofia Varela
37	16-21	NM ST	JAX ST	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Sofia Varela, Taya Nordmann
38	17-21	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Sofia Varela
39	17-22	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez
40	18-22	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
41	18-23	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson
42	18-24	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
43	18-25	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
Set 2
1	1-0	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
2	1-1	JAX ST	NM ST	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
3	1-2	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez
4	2-2	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Mia Duong
5	2-3	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson
6	3-3	NM ST	JAX ST×3	Serve err	Makayla Martinez
7	4-3	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Ashley Herman
8	5-3	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Sophia Schweikert
9	5-4	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Jacksonville St.
10	6-4	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	Katrina Catalan
11	7-4	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	Sophia Schweikert
12	7-5	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Sophia Schweikert
13	7-6	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert
14	8-6	NM ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart
15	8-7	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan
16	8-8	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
17	9-8	NM ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart
18	9-9	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan
19	10-9	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	Paige Nelson
20	10-10	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez
21	11-10	NM ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Tess Fuqua
22	12-10	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Tess Fuqua
23	13-10	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli
24	13-11	JAX ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson
25	13-12	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	Makayla Martinez	aced Sophia Schweikert
26	13-13	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez
27	13-14	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Paige Nelson
28	14-14	NM ST	JAX ST	Blocked	Tess Fuqua	blk Taya Nordmann, Izzy Whittaker
29	14-15	JAX ST	NM ST	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert
30	14-16	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Makayla Martinez
31	15-16	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	Katrina Catalan
32	15-17	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Serve err	Jacksonville St.
33	15-18	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
34	15-19	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
35	16-19	NM ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart
36	16-20	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
37	16-21	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert
38	16-22	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Lauren Buchanan	blk Jaelynn Kohli, Kate Sinclair
39	17-22	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela
40	17-23	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Bad set	Azavia Thomas
41	17-24	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan
42	17-25	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez
Set 3
1	1-0	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Paige Nelson
2	1-1	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson
3	2-1	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela
4	2-2	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Jacksonville St.
5	3-2	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
6	3-3	JAX ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Paige Nelson
7	3-4	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	Katrina Catalan
8	3-5	NM ST	NM ST×4	Bad set	Sofia Varela
9	3-6	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	Katrina Catalan	aced Izzy Whittaker
10	4-6	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Izzy Whittaker	set Sofia Varela
11	4-7	JAX ST	NM ST	Attack err	Taya Nordmann
12	5-7	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela
13	6-7	JAX ST	JAX ST	Blocked	Ashley Herman	blk Sophia Schweikert, Taya Nordmann
14	6-8	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan
15	6-9	NM ST	NM ST	Blocked	Sophia Schweikert	blk Jaelynn Kohli, Kate Sinclair
16	7-9	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela
17	8-9	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sofia Varela	set Reese Tiesing
18	8-10	JAX ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez
19	9-10	NM ST	JAX ST	Serve err	Paige Nelson
20	9-11	JAX ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson
21	9-12	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli
22	9-13	NM ST	NM ST×6	Blocked	Sophia Schweikert	blk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli
23	9-14	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez
24	9-15	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson
25–26	10-16		JAX ST · NM ST	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.
27	10-17	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Izzy Whittaker
28	10-18	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Makayla Martinez
29	10-19	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Paige Nelson
30	11-19	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Sofia Varela
31	11-20	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Jacksonville St.
32	12-20	NM ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela
33	12-21	JAX ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan
34	12-22	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert
35	12-23	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Lauren Buchanan	blk Ashley Herman, Kate Sinclair
36	13-23	NM ST	JAX ST×3	Serve err	Bella Castro
37	14-23	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Ace	Lauren Buchanan	aced Bella Castro
38	15-23	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Gemma Morris
39	15-24	JAX ST	NM ST	Serve err	Lauren Buchanan
40	15-25	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	Ashley Herman

Score shown after each rally, Jacksonville St. first.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

New Mexico St. def. Jacksonville St. 3–0

New Mexico St. held Jacksonville St. under 20 in every set.