Final · 5 setsSun, Sep 6, 2026 · Neutral site

UNC Greensboro def. East Carolina 3–2

UNC Greensboro beat East Carolina 3-2 (21-25, 25-17, 21-25, 25-21, 15-10) on Sun, Sep 6, 2026 at a neutral site. Allie Sweet led UNC Greensboro with 23 kills; East Carolina's Ellie Pate had a match-high 25.

Data through · final Sep 6

Set12345Sets
E CAR25172521102
UNC G21252125153

Win probability

UNC Greensboro above 50 · East Carolina below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+12.9% UNC Grally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 12.9% to UNC Greensboro — set 5, E CAR 8-11 UNC G. Attack error by Lhogan Wright. UNC G win probability 69% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

E CAR 70.3%29.7% UNC G

East Carolina wins

3-0
23.5%
3-1
27.0%
3-2
19.9%

UNC Greensboro wins

3-0
5.6%
3-1
10.4%
3-2
13.6%
E CAR break %
42.7% vs this opp
UNC G break %
38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lhogan WrightAttack error+12.9%

    Attack error by Lhogan Wright

    Set 5 · E CAR 8-11 UNC G · UNC G 69% → 82%

  2. 02
    Kai BaileyKill+10.5%

    Kill by Kai Bailey (set by Brook Watkins)

    Set 5 · E CAR 6-7 UNC G · E CAR 33% → 43%

  3. 03
    Brook WatkinsAttack error+10.4%

    Attack error by Brook Watkins

    Set 5 · E CAR 3-6 UNC G · UNC G 61% → 71%

  4. 04
    Allie SweetKill+9.9%

    Kill by Allie Sweet (set by Izora Gragg)

    Set 5 · E CAR 8-10 UNC G · UNC G 59% → 69%

  5. 05
    Ellie PateAttack error+9.8%

    Attack error by Ellie Pate

    Set 5 · E CAR 1-3 UNC G · UNC G 49% → 59%

  6. 06
    Allie SweetKill+9.7%

    Kill by Allie Sweet (set by Izora Gragg)

    Set 5 · E CAR 1-4 UNC G · UNC G 59% → 68%

  7. 07
    Allie SweetKill+9.6%

    Kill by Allie Sweet (set by Izora Gragg)

    Set 5 · E CAR 8-12 UNC G · UNC G 82% → 92%

  8. 08
    Allie SweetKill+9.4%

    Kill by Allie Sweet (set by Izora Gragg)

    Set 5 · E CAR 1-2 UNC G · UNC G 40% → 49%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525762.2903218002128
511320.4001001006314
56524.04212020132.510.5
53215.067123133031.56.5
5115.000430260031.52.5
1022-1.00000000010.50.5
5000–0221200002
5000–100420000
5000–200800000
46313.231000000428
3000–100000000
2429.222000100004
2000–000200000
Team totals5625150.20753885771221298
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523764.250010163212.526.5
513829.17200020031.514.5
58316.31301140073.512.5
5417.42900000031.55.5
51011.0005521700425
5000–000620000
515539.2560235102118
51011.0007021500001
51011.000101710001
3000–111000001
Team totals6624158.266647962822012107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 E CAR · UNC G 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 6 E CARUNC G 5

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 E CARUNC G 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 E CARUNC G 3

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 5 E CARUNC G 5

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 2 E CARUNC G 4

Bars above the line = UNC Greensboro leads, below = East Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

East Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
52%11/21
2
47%7/15
50%9/18
3
70%7/10
22%2/9
4
70%7/10
53%8/15
5
64%7/11
22%2/9
6
44%7/16
30%3/10
All
57%46/81
43%35/82

UNC Greensboro

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
50%8/16
2
50%8/16
55%12/22
3
50%7/14
30%3/10
4
70%7/10
42%5/12
5
78%7/9
30%3/10
6
58%7/12
36%4/11
All
57%47/82
43%35/81

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#E CAR-UNC GSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.6
21-1UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+1.5
31-2E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.6
42-2UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+1.6
52-3E CARUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Chloe Nussbaum+1.7
62-4UNC GUNC G×3Attack errNina Edwards+2.5
72-5UNC GUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+2.6
83-5UNC GE CAR×3KillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+1.6
94-5E CARE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+2.4
105-5E CARE CAR×3Attack errKendall Lanclos+2.5
115-6E CARUNC GKillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+1.8
126-6UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+1.7
136-7E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+1.9
147-7UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Angeles Alderete+1.8
157-8E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+1.9
167-9UNC GUNC GAttack errEkwe Anwah+2.9
178-9UNC GE CAR×4KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.8
189-9E CARE CAR×4Attack errAllie Sweet+2.8
1910-9E CARE CAR×4BlockedHailey Cliftonblk Ekwe Anwah, Angeles Alderete+2.8
2011-9E CARE CAR×4AceEast Carolinaaced Ella Burd+2.6
2111-10E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.7
2212-10UNC GE CAR×6KillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+1.8
2313-10E CARE CAR×6KillNina Edwards+2.4
2414-10E CARE CAR×6Attack errHailey Clifton+2.0
2515-10E CARE CAR×6KillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+1.6
2616-10E CARE CAR×6AceEast Carolinaaced Ella Burd+1.1
2717-10E CARE CAR×6BlockedAllie Sweetblk Nina Edwards, Aulie Huff+0.7
2817-11E CARUNC GAttack errAulie Huff+0.3
2918-11UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+0.5
3018-12E CARUNC GKillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+0.3
3119-12UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+0.4
3219-13E CARUNC GAttack errEllie Pate+0.2
3319-14UNC GUNC GAceUNC Greensboroaced Allison Butrum+0.6
3420-14UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.6
3520-15E CARUNC GKillAkila Hardieset Izora Gragg+0.4
3621-15UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.6
3721-16E CARUNC G×5KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+0.3
3821-17UNC GUNC G×5KillChloe Nussbaumset Brook Watkins+0.8
3921-18UNC GUNC G×5KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.4
4021-19UNC GUNC G×5KillAkila Hardie+2.3
4121-20UNC GUNC G×5Attack errEkwe Anwah+3.6
4222-20UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+3.2
4323-20E CARE CARBlockedAllie Sweetblk Aulie Huff+3.5
4423-21E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.3
4524-21UNC GE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+2.4
4625-21E CARE CARAceEast Carolinaaced Allie Sweet+1.2
Set 2
11-0UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+1.2
21-1E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+1.3
32-1UNC GE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Aulie Huff+1.2
43-1E CARE CAR×3AceEast Carolinaaced Allie Sweet+1.7
54-1E CARE CAR×3Attack errHailey Clifton+1.6
64-2E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+1.0
75-2UNC GE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+1.1
85-3E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+1.1
95-4UNC GUNC GKillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+1.8
106-4UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.3
116-5E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+1.3
126-6UNC GUNC GBlockedKai Baileyblk Kendall Lanclos, Akila Hardie+2.0
137-6UNC GE CARKillBrook Watkinsset Ellie Pate+1.4
148-6E CARE CARBlockedKendall Lanclosblk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff+2.0
158-7E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+1.3
168-8UNC GUNC GBlockedEllie Pateblk Hailey Clifton, Akila Hardie+2.2
179-8UNC GE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.5
1810-8E CARE CARAceEast Carolinaaced Kendall Lanclos+2.1
1910-9E CARUNC G×3KillKendall Lanclosset Chloe Nussbaum+1.4
2010-10UNC GUNC G×3KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+2.3
2110-11UNC GUNC G×3KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+2.5
2211-11UNC GE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.7
2311-12E CARUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+1.8
2411-13UNC GUNC G×3Attack errNina Edwards+2.7
2511-14UNC GUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+2.7
2612-14UNC GE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+1.6
2712-15E CARUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+1.9
2812-16UNC GUNC G×3KillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+2.5
2912-17UNC GUNC G×3Attack errAngeles Alderete+2.1
3013-17UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Ellie Pate+1.0
3113-18E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+1.5
3213-19UNC GUNC GBlockedEllie Pateblk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Izora Gragg+1.5
3314-19UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Nina Edwards+0.6
3415-19E CARE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.3
3515-20E CARUNC GBlockedEllie Pateblk Connore' Siler-Nixon+1.4
3616-20UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+0.8
3716-21E CARUNC G×4Serve errEast Carolina+1.3
3816-22UNC G
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
3916-23UNC GUNC G×4KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+0.5
4016-24UNC GUNC G×4KillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+0.1
4117-24UNC GE CARKillAulie Huffset Ellie Pate·
4217-25E CARUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg·
Set 3
10-1E CARUNC GKillAkila Hardieset Izora Gragg+2.3
21-1UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Emma Ortiz+2.2
32-1E CARE CARBlockedHailey Cliftonblk Angeles Alderete, Kai Bailey+3.1
42-2E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+2.2
53-2UNC GE CARAttack errHailey Clifton+2.2
64-2E CARE CARAttack errConnore' Siler-Nixon+3.0
74-3E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+2.1
84-4UNC GUNC GBlockedAllie Sweetblk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Izora Gragg+3.3
95-4UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+2.3
105-5E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+2.4
116-5UNC GE CARBlockedKendall Lanclosblk Nina Edwards, Brook Watkins+2.3
127-5E CARE CARAceEast Carolina+3.3
137-6E CARUNC G×3KillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+2.2
147-7UNC GUNC G×3Bad setAllison Butrum+3.6
157-8UNC GUNC G×3AceUNC Greensboro+3.9
168-8UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+2.6
179-8E CARE CARAttack errAllie Sweet+3.8
189-9E CARUNC GKillAkila Hardieset Izora Gragg+2.6
1910-9UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+2.6
2011-9E CARE CARAttack errHailey Clifton+3.7
2111-10E CARUNC G×3BlockedEllie Pateblk Hailey Clifton, Akila Hardie+2.4
2211-11UNC GUNC G×3AceUNC Greensboroaced Angeles Alderete+4.1
2311-12UNC GUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+4.5
2412-12UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Emma Ortiz+3.0
2512-13E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+3.2
2612-14UNC GUNC GBlockedAulie Huffblk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Allie Sweet+4.9
2713-14UNC GE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+3.0
2814-14E CARE CARAttack errConnore' Siler-Nixon+4.8
2914-15E CARUNC GKillMia Nicklasset Chloe Nussbaum+3.6
3015-15UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+3.4
3115-16E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+3.8
3216-16UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+3.5
3317-16E CARE CARAceEast Carolinaaced Allie Sweet+5.3
3417-17E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+3.7
3518-17UNC GE CAR×3BlockedAkila Hardieblk Ellie Pate, Nina Edwards+3.8
3619-17E CARE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Clara Cloninger+5.3
3720-17E CARE CAR×3Attack errKendall Lanclos+4.4
3820-18E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Chloe Nussbaum+2.3
3921-18UNC GE CAR×4KillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+3.1
4022-18E CARE CAR×4KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+3.0
4123-18E CARE CAR×4KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.6
4224-18E CARE CAR×4BlockedKendall Lanclosblk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff+0.5
4324-19E CARUNC G×3Attack errAulie Huff+0.1
4424-20UNC GUNC G×3AceUNC Greensboroaced Angeles Alderete+0.3
4524-21UNC GUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+0.7
4625-21UNC GE CARKillEllie Pate+1.1
Set 4
11-0UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+1.8
21-1E CARUNC G×5Attack errAngeles Alderete+1.8
31-2UNC GUNC G×5KillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+2.8
41-3UNC GUNC G×5KillAllie Sweetset Chloe Nussbaum+3.0
51-4UNC GUNC G×5Attack errAulie Huff+3.0
61-5UNC GUNC G×5KillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+3.0
72-5UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+1.8
82-6E CARUNC GAttack errNina Edwards+2.1
93-6UNC GE CAR×5Bad setMia Nicklas+1.8
104-6E CARE CAR×5KillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+2.9
115-6E CARE CAR×5KillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+3.0
126-6E CARE CAR×5KillNina Edwards+3.1
137-6E CARE CAR×5AceEast Carolinaaced Mia Nicklas+3.0
147-7E CARUNC G×3KillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+2.1
157-8UNC GUNC G×3AceUNC Greensboroaced Allison Butrum+3.3
167-9UNC GUNC G×3KillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+3.5
178-9UNC GE CARBlockedConnore' Siler-Nixonblk Nina Edwards, Angeles Alderete+2.2
188-10E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+2.5
198-11UNC GUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Bloom Princell+3.6
209-11UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+2.1
219-12E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+2.6
229-13UNC GUNC GKillHailey Cliftonset Izora Gragg+3.5
2310-13UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.9
2411-13E CARE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+3.3
2511-14E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+2.7
2612-14UNC GE CARBlockedHailey Cliftonblk Ellie Pate, Kai Bailey+2.3
2712-15E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+2.8
2812-16UNC GUNC GAttack errLhogan Wright+3.7
2913-16UNC GE CARAttack errAllie Sweet+1.9
3013-17E CARUNC GServe errEast Carolina+2.6
3114-17UNC GE CARAttack errAllie Sweet+1.9
3215-17E CARE CARBlockedAllie Sweetblk Brook Watkins, Nina Edwards+3.6
3315-18E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+3.2
3416-18UNC GE CARKillLhogan Wrightset Brook Watkins+2.5
3516-19E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+3.3
3616-20UNC GUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+4.0
3717-20UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.8
3817-21E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+2.8
3917-22UNC GUNC GAceUNC Greensboroaced Angeles Alderete+2.6
4018-22UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.8
4119-22E CARE CARAttack errHailey Clifton+2.1
4219-23E CARUNC GKillKendall Lanclosset Izora Gragg+2.6
4319-24UNC GUNC GBlockedKai Baileyblk Allie Sweet+1.8
4420-24UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.3
4521-24E CARE CARKillLhogan Wrightset Brook Watkins+0.9
4621-25E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+3.0
Set 5
11-0E CARE CARKillEllie Pateset Allison Butrum+8.5
21-1E CARUNC G×4KillAllie Sweetset Chloe Nussbaum+5.9
31-2UNC GUNC G×4KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+9.4
41-3UNC GUNC G×4Attack errEllie Pate+9.8
51-4UNC GUNC G×4KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+9.7
62-4UNC GE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+5.6
73-4E CARE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+9.3
83-5E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Chloe Nussbaum+7.4
93-6UNC GUNC GAttack errBrook Watkins+10.4
104-6UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+5.8
114-7E CARUNC GKillConnore' Siler-Nixonset Izora Gragg+7.5
125-7UNC GE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+6.0
136-7E CARE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+10.5
146-8E CARUNC GBlockedAulie Huffblk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Kendall Lanclos+8.7
157-8UNC GE CARKillLhogan Wrightset Brook Watkins+7.4
167-9E CARUNC GKillIzora Graggset Mia Nicklas+9.3
178-9UNC GE CARKillLhogan Wrightset Brook Watkins+7.7
188-10E CARUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+9.9
198-11UNC GUNC G×3Attack errLhogan Wright+12.9
208-12UNC GUNC G×3KillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+9.6
219-12UNC GE CARServe errUNC Greensboro+3.5
229-13E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+6.4
2310-13UNC GE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+2.7
2410-14E CARUNC GKillAllie Sweetset Izora Gragg+5.6
2510-15UNC GUNC GBlockedEllie Pateblk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Izora Gragg+2.4

Score shown after each rally, East Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).