Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

American def. Holy Cross 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: American 95.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

American beat visiting Holy Cross 3-1 (25-13, 19-25, 25-20, 25-15) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. American's Elise Sterling led with 13 kills, and Bella Marrero added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
HOLYCR132520151
AMER251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

American broke it open with a 7–0 run in the first set.

Win probability never moved more than 3.6 points on one rally; Holy Cross topped out at 19% in Set 3. American went in as RallyIQ's 96% pick.

Holy CrossAmerican
  • Break %+14.4 pts
    35.149.5

    On serve: 46/93 against 26/74 (Holy Cross sideout 50.5%).

  • Hitting+.128
    .135.263

    53 kills, 18 errors vs 42 kills, 24 errors.

  • Longest run+3
    47

    American scored 7 straight in the first set to stretch a 7–5 lead to 14–5. That set ended 25–13.

American above 50Holy Cross belowMax swing 3.6%

Holy CrossAmerican

Aces
Holy Cross 6·American 11
Serve err
Holy Cross 5·American 6
Blocks
Holy Cross 9·American 123 BS · 12 BA vs 2 BS · 20 BA
Digs
Holy Cross 54·American 62

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

American above 50 · Holy Cross below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.6% HOLYCRrally 167 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Holy Cross — set 3, HOLYCR 18-17 AMER. Kill by Kyla Harris (set by Drew Flanagan). AMER win probability 87% → 84%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOLYCR 4.5%95.5% AMER

Holy Cross wins

3-0
0.5%
3-1
1.2%
3-2
2.8%

American wins

3-0
56.9%
3-1
29.2%
3-2
9.3%
HOLYCR break %
37.4% vs this opp
AMER break %
50.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kyla HarrisKill+3.6%

    Kill by Kyla Harris (set by Drew Flanagan)

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 18-17 AMER · HOLYCR 13% → 16%

  2. 02

    Kill by Carly Sciborski (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 19-20 AMER · AMER 86% → 89%

  3. 03
    Kat TeepeKill+3.2%

    Kill by Kat Teepe (set by Drew Flanagan)

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 19-18 AMER · HOLYCR 14% → 17%

  4. 04
    Elise SterlingAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Elise Sterling

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 13-10 AMER · HOLYCR 16% → 19%

  5. 05

    KK Green stuffed by Carly Sciborski & Prinzez Zeck

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 19-21 AMER · AMER 89% → 92%

  6. 06
    Kat TeepeKill+2.8%

    Kill by Kat Teepe (set by Drew Flanagan)

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 17-17 AMER · HOLYCR 10% → 13%

  7. 07
    Emma SorensenAttack error+2.8%

    Attack error by Emma Sorensen

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 19-19 AMER · AMER 83% → 86%

  8. 08
    Carly SciborskiAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Carly Sciborski

    Set 3 · HOLYCR 12-10 AMER · HOLYCR 13% → 16%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49318.3330102022313
48940-.02503085010.511.5
46317.176100001439
4304.7500121000004
4102.5003611700213
4000–000800000
49428.1790012002110
46423.08700050010.56.5
4000–2011240000
1011-1.000000000000
1000–000010000
1000–000000000
1000–200000000
Team totals4224133.13541655411312973
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413327.37012030073.518.5
411431.22610020010.511.5
4618.625412113012210
47116.37500000132.59.5
48322.227000830008
4000–113600001
47319.21100000031.58.5
4000–4201920002
4000–100700000
3015-.200021310213
21011.000000000001
1001.00001000010.51.5
1022-1.000011100001
1001.00000000010.50.5
1000–100000000
Team totals5318133.263501166262201294

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Holy Cross vs American

Season series · American leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 HOLYCR · AMER 7

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 HOLYCRAMER 7

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 HOLYCRAMER 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 HOLYCRAMER 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 2 HOLYCRAMER 5

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Holy Cross leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Holy Cross

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%6/10
0%0/6
2
50%6/12
40%4/10
3
32%6/19
14%1/7
4
60%6/10
33%3/9
5
36%5/14
40%4/10
6
56%5/9
29%2/7
All
46%34/74
29%14/49

American

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
45%5/11
2
86%6/7
50%6/12
3
67%6/9
67%12/18
4
55%6/11
25%2/8
5
71%5/7
69%11/16
6
100%5/5
44%4/9
All
71%35/49
54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

167 rallies

#HOLYCR-AMERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0AMERHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.5
21-1HOLYCRAMER×4KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.4
31-2AMERAMER×4AceDeniz Dakakaced Elizabeth Hall+0.5
41-3AMERAMER×4AceDeniz Dakakaced Emma Sorensen+0.4
51-4AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.4
62-4AMERHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.3
72-5HOLYCRAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.3
82-6AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.3
93-6AMERHOLYCRKillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+0.3
103-7HOLYCRAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.2
114-7AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+0.3
125-7HOLYCRHOLYCRAceEmma Sorensenaced Salme Hollas+0.4
135-8HOLYCRAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
145-9AMERAMER×7Attack errKat Teepe+0.3
155-10AMERAMER×7BlockedKyla Harrisblk Deniz Dakak+0.3
165-11AMERAMER×7AceOlivia Milleraced Elizabeth Hall+0.2
175-12AMERAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
185-13AMERAMER×7KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
195-14AMERAMER×7Attack errKK Green+0.1
206-14AMERHOLYCRServe errOlivia Miller·
216-15HOLYCRAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak·
227-15AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan·
237-16HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak·
248-16AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan·
259-16HOLYCRHOLYCRAceGeorgia Murphyaced Salme Hollas+0.1
269-17HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
2710-17AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan·
2810-18HOLYCRAMER×6KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
2910-19AMERAMER×6BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Prinzez Zeck, Monyay Crowder·
3010-20AMERAMER×6AceZedo Yilmazaced Emma Sorensen·
3110-21AMERAMER×6KillSalme Hollas·
3210-22AMERAMER×6KillPrinzez Zeck·
3310-23AMERAMER×6KillSalme Hollasset Bella Marrero·
3411-23AMERHOLYCRServe errZedo Yilmaz·
3511-24HOLYCRAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak·
3612-24AMERHOLYCRBad setBella Marrero·
3713-24HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedSalme Hollasblk Kyla Harris·
3813-25HOLYCRAMERKillGabbie Vizekset Deniz Dakak·
Set 2
10-1HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.2
21-1AMERHOLYCR×3BlockedDeniz Dakakblk Lacey Murphy+0.3
32-1HOLYCR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
43-1HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+0.5
53-2HOLYCRAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Sophie Dufour+0.3
64-2AMERHOLYCRKillGeorgia Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.4
74-3HOLYCRAMERAttack errKyla Harris+0.3
85-3AMERHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.4
95-4HOLYCRAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.4
106-4AMERHOLYCRKillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+0.4
116-5HOLYCRAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.4
127-5AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+0.5
137-6HOLYCRAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Bella Marrero+0.4
147-7AMERAMERAttack errKK Green+0.5
158-7AMERHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+0.4
168-8HOLYCRAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Olivia Miller+0.4
179-8AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.5
1810-8HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedPrinzez Zeckblk Kyla Harris+0.7
1910-9HOLYCRAMERServe errElizabeth Hall+0.4
2011-9AMERHOLYCR×3BlockedCarly Sciborskiblk Kyla Harris, Emma Sorensen+0.6
2112-9HOLYCRHOLYCR×3AceDrew Flanaganaced Salme Hollas+0.8
2213-9HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.8
2313-10HOLYCRAMERAttack errEmma Sorensen+0.5
2414-10AMERHOLYCR×4KillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.7
2515-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×4Attack errSalme Hollas+0.9
2616-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×4AceEmma Sorensenaced Bella Marrero+0.8
2717-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×4BlockedSalme Hollasblk Kat Teepe, Kyla Harris+0.7
2817-11HOLYCRAMER×4KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.3
2917-12AMERAMER×4AceBella Marreroaced Emma Sorensen+0.5
3017-13AMERAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.6
3117-14AMERAMER×4BlockedKat Teepeblk Zedo Yilmaz, Elise Sterling+0.7
3218-14AMERHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+0.8
3319-14HOLYCRHOLYCRAttack errElise Sterling+0.9
3419-15HOLYCRAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.5
3519-16AMERAMER×3Attack errLacey Murphy+0.7
3619-17AMERAMER×3BlockedKat Teepeblk Elise Sterling, Zedo Yilmaz+0.9
3720-17AMERHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+1.0
3820-18HOLYCRAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.7
3921-18AMERHOLYCR×4KillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+1.1
4022-18HOLYCRHOLYCR×4KillGeorgia Murphyset Drew Flanagan+1.2
4123-18HOLYCRHOLYCR×4KillGeorgia Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.8
4224-18HOLYCRHOLYCR×4BlockedSophie Dufourblk Lacey Murphy, Drew Flanagan+0.4
4324-19HOLYCRAMERServe errGeorgia Murphy+0.1
4425-19AMERHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Lacey Murphy+0.2
Set 3
11-0AMERHOLYCRBlockedZedo Yilmazblk Lacey Murphy, Drew Flanagan+1.2
21-1HOLYCRAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.0
31-2AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.2
42-2AMERHOLYCRServe errOlivia Miller+1.1
52-3HOLYCRAMER×3BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling+1.0
62-4AMERAMER×3BlockedKyla Harrisblk Elise Sterling, Sophie Dufour+1.1
72-5AMERAMER×3AceZedo Yilmazaced Emma Sorensen+0.9
83-5AMERHOLYCR×3KillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.8
94-5HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKat Teepeset Elizabeth Hall+1.2
105-5HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+1.5
115-6HOLYCRAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.1
126-6AMERHOLYCRKillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+1.3
136-7HOLYCRAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Deniz Dakak+1.1
146-8AMERAMERBlockedEmma Sorensenblk Prinzez Zeck+1.3
157-8AMERHOLYCR×3Serve errDeniz Dakak+1.1
168-8HOLYCRHOLYCR×3AceKyla Harrisaced Zedo Yilmaz+1.7
179-8HOLYCRHOLYCR×3BlockedSophie Dufourblk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe+2.1
189-9HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.5
1910-9AMERHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+1.8
2010-10HOLYCRAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.5
2111-10AMERHOLYCR×3KillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+1.9
2212-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×3Attack errCarly Sciborski+2.7
2313-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×3Attack errElise Sterling+3.0
2413-11HOLYCRAMERBlockedEmma Sorensenblk Elise Sterling, Carly Sciborski+1.9
2513-12AMERAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+2.5
2614-12AMERHOLYCRServe errOlivia Miller+2.4
2714-13HOLYCRAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.0
2814-14AMERAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.5
2914-15AMERAMER×4Attack errEmma Sorensen+2.3
3014-16AMERAMER×4BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling+1.9
3115-16AMERHOLYCRKillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+1.6
3215-17HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.6
3316-17AMERHOLYCR×3KillDrew Flanaganset Elizabeth Hall+1.7
3417-17HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+2.8
3518-17HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+3.6
3618-18HOLYCRAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+2.6
3719-18AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+3.2
3819-19HOLYCRAMER×3Attack errEmma Sorensen+2.8
3919-20AMERAMER×3KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+3.4
4019-21AMERAMER×3BlockedKK Greenblk Carly Sciborski, Prinzez Zeck+2.9
4120-21AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+2.1
4220-22HOLYCRAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.5
4320-23AMERAMER×4Bad setKK Green+2.2
4420-24AMERAMER×4BlockedKK Greenblk Elise Sterling, Carly Sciborski+1.1
4520-25AMERAMER×4AceBella Marreroaced Elizabeth Hall+0.3
Set 4
10-1HOLYCRAMERAttack errLacey Murphy+0.6
21-1AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.7
31-2HOLYCRAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.7
42-2AMERHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.8
52-3HOLYCRAMERServe errDrew Flanagan+0.7
62-4AMERAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Bella Marrero+0.8
73-4AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+0.7
83-5HOLYCRAMER×5KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.6
93-6AMERAMER×5AceElise Sterling+0.7
103-7AMERAMER×5Attack errKat Teepe+0.5
113-8AMERAMER×5AceElise Sterlingaced Emma Sorensen+0.4
123-9AMERAMER×5KillDeniz Dakakset Elise Sterling+0.3
134-9AMERHOLYCRKillKyla Harrisset Drew Flanagan+0.2
144-10HOLYCRAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
154-11AMERAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
164-12AMERAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Bella Marrero+0.2
175-12AMERHOLYCRAttack errCarly Sciborski+0.1
185-13HOLYCRAMERServe errKat Teepe+0.1
196-13AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.1
206-14HOLYCRAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
216-15AMERAMERAttack errEmma Sorensen+0.1
227-15AMERHOLYCRAttack errElise Sterling+0.1
238-15HOLYCRHOLYCRAttack errCarly Sciborski+0.1
248-16HOLYCRAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
258-17AMERAMERAceSydney Guerrieraced Elizabeth Hall+0.1
269-17AMERHOLYCRServe errSydney Guerrier·
2710-17HOLYCRHOLYCRAttack errSydney Guerrier+0.1
2810-18HOLYCRAMERKillSalme Hollasset Alex Ioannou+0.1
2910-19AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Maddy Stewart+0.1
3011-19AMERHOLYCRAttack errSophie Dufour·
3112-19HOLYCRHOLYCRAceEmma Sorensenaced Bella Marrero+0.1
3212-20HOLYCRAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3313-20AMERHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Tuana Ozarpaci·
3413-21HOLYCRAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3514-21AMERHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Tuana Ozarpaci·
3614-22HOLYCRAMER×3BlockedSarahya Collegeblk Prinzez Zeck, Emma Blankenship+0.1
3714-23AMERAMER×3Attack errLacey Murphy·
3814-24AMERAMER×3AceEmma Blankenshipaced Alana Whitwell·
3915-24AMERHOLYCRBlockedSydney Guerrierblk KK Green, Lacey Murphy·
4015-25HOLYCRAMERServe errGeorgia Murphy·

Score shown after each rally, Holy Cross first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).