Providence vs Villanova Volleyball: Villanova Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Villanova 77.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Villanova beat visiting Providence 3-0 (25-18, 25-22, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Villanova's Campbell McKinnon led with 13 kills, and Mina Diggs added 10 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PROV	18	22	23	0
NOVA	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Providence hit .112. Villanova held them there all match.

Win probability never moved more than 2.6 points on one rally; Providence topped out at 23% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave Villanova 77% before first serve.

ProvidenceVillanova

Break %+9.8 pts
35.445.2
33 of 73 on serve vs 23 of 65, so Providence's sideout was 54.8%.
Longest run+1
45
Villanova scored 5 straight in the second set to turn an 8–9 deficit into a 13–9 lead. The set finished 25–22.

Villanova above 50Providence belowMax swing 2.6%

ProvidenceVillanova

Hitting: Providence .112·Villanova .180
Aces: Providence 4·Villanova 8
Serve err: Providence 7·Villanova 7
Blocks: Providence 10·Villanova 52 BS · 16 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs: Providence 27·Villanova 41

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Villanova above 50 · Providence below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Villanova — set 2, PROV 21-23 NOVA. Providence service error. NOVA win probability 90% → 93%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PROV 31.4%68.6% NOVA

Providence wins

3-0

6.1%

3-1

11.1%

3-2

14.2%

Villanova wins

3-0

22.3%

3-1

26.3%

3-2

20.0%

PROV break %: 40.9% vs this opp
NOVA break %: 44.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
ProvidenceService error+2.6%
Providence service error
Set 2 · PROV 21-23 NOVA · NOVA 90% → 93%
02
Abby HarrellAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Abby Harrell
Set 2 · PROV 20-21 NOVA · PROV 8% → 10%
03
VillanovaAce+2.3%
Villanova ace on Macy Taylor
Set 2 · PROV 21-24 NOVA · NOVA 93% → 95%
04
Campbell McKinnonKill+2.3%
Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Selah O'Connor)
Set 2 · PROV 20-22 NOVA · NOVA 90% → 92%
05
Kaia EasterbrookAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Kaia Easterbrook
Set 3 · PROV 23-25 NOVA · NOVA 98% → 100%
06
ProvidenceAce+1.9%
Providence ace on Cat Young
Set 2 · PROV 8-6 NOVA · PROV 14% → 16%
07
Abby HarrellAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Abby Harrell
Set 2 · PROV 21-22 NOVA · PROV 8% → 10%
08
ProvidenceAce+1.8%
Providence ace on Cat Young
Set 2 · PROV 7-6 NOVA · PROV 12% → 14%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	11	5	25	.240	0	3	1	2	1	0	2	1	15
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	2	6
9Tori OtterMB	3	3	4	15	-.067	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	5	1	14	.286	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
7Shea DupuisOH	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3
20Sarah MusialS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Ava DyerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	8	2	0	0	0	0
8Gwenyth KossOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
12Fielding MayhughOH	1	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
32Lyla BuserOH	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27Kaia EasterbrookMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	18	89	.112	27	4	7	27	8	2	16	10	63

Villanovahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Campbell McKinnonMB	3	13	6	35	.200	0	2	2	3	1	0	3	1.5	16.5
10Abby HarrellOH	3	8	9	26	-.038	0	2	0	5	1	0	0	0	10
44Reagan McGivernMB	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
25Annika VeurinkMB	3	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
7Alyssa NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	29	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
8Marikate RitterbuschL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
4Taylor LewisOH	3	9	3	18	.333	0	0	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
21Mina DiggsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	3	10	0	0	0	0	2
24Selah O'ConnorS	3	1	1	2	.000	8	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
14Loren WinnOPP	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Ava HarrisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Cat YoungOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	23	100	.180	40	8	7	41	4	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Providence vs Villanova

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Providence at Villanova · Villanova won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 31, 2026Villanova at Providence · Providence won 3-1Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 PROV · NOVA 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 PROVNOVA 3

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 PROVNOVA 5

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 PROVNOVA 5

Bars above the line = Villanova leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	53%9/17
2	47%7/15	36%5/14
3	50%6/12	30%3/10
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	55%40/73	35%23/65

Villanova

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	42%5/12
2	69%9/13	50%9/18
3	60%6/10	45%5/11
4	100%6/6	50%6/12
5	75%6/8	54%7/13
6	55%6/11	14%1/7
All	65%42/65	45%33/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

138 rallies

#	PROV-NOVA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
2	1-1	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+1.4
3	1-2	PROV	NOVA×3	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
4	1-3	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.7
5	1-4	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+1.5
6	2-4	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
7	2-5	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.1
8	2-6	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.4
9	3-6	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Annika Veurink		+1.0
10	3-7	PROV	NOVA×3	Attack err	Lyla Buser		+1.0
11	3-8	NOVA	NOVA×3	Ace	Villanova	aced Ava Dyer	+1.2
12	3-9	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Lyla Buser		+0.9
13	4-9	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+0.6
14	5-9	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Taylor Lewis		+1.0
15	5-10	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.9
16	6-10	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.8
17	6-11	PROV	NOVA×3	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Selah O'Connor	+0.9
18	6-12	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Selah O'Connor	set Loren Winn	+0.9
19	6-13	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.7
20	7-13	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
21	8-13	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.7
22	8-14	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Selah O'Connor	+0.7
23	9-14	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
24	9-15	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.7
25	9-16	NOVA	NOVA	Blocked	Tori Otter	blk Annika Veurink, Campbell McKinnon	+0.6
26	10-16	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+0.3
27	11-16	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.7
28	11-17	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Mina Diggs	+0.7
29	12-17	NOVA	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.5
30	12-18	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+0.6
31	13-18	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+0.4
32	13-19	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
33	14-19	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Abby Harrell		+0.4
34	14-20	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
35	14-21	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+0.4
36	15-21	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Reagan McGivern		+0.2
37	16-21	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+0.4
38	16-22	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.5
39	16-23	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	Villanova	aced Ava Dyer	+0.3
40	17-23	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
41	18-23	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.2
42	18-24	PROV	NOVA	Blocked	Tori Otter	blk Campbell McKinnon, Annika Veurink	+0.3
43	18-25	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NOVA	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
2	2-0	PROV	PROV×3	Blocked	Taylor Lewis	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins	+1.6
3	3-0	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Taylor Lewis		+1.7
4	3-1	PROV	NOVA×4	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.1
5	3-2	NOVA	NOVA×4	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.6
6	3-3	NOVA	NOVA×4	Ace	Villanova	aced Macy Taylor	+1.5
7	3-4	NOVA	NOVA×4	Blocked	Sophia Adkins	blk Taylor Lewis, Annika Veurink	+1.5
8	4-4	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+1.1
9	5-4	PROV	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Shea Dupuis, Sarah Musial	+1.7
10	5-5	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+1.2
11	5-6	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+1.6
12	6-6	NOVA	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+1.2
13	7-6	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	Providence	aced Cat Young	+1.8
14	8-6	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	Providence	aced Cat Young	+1.9
15	8-7	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
16	8-8	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Mina Diggs	+1.8
17	9-8	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+1.4
18	9-9	PROV	NOVA×5	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
19	9-10	NOVA	NOVA×5	Ace	Villanova	aced Macy Taylor	+1.8
20	9-11	NOVA	NOVA×5	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.7
21	9-12	NOVA	NOVA×5	Blocked	Shea Dupuis	blk Campbell McKinnon, Reagan McGivern	+1.5
22	9-13	NOVA	NOVA×5	Ace	Villanova		+1.2
23	10-13	NOVA	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Lyric Berry	+0.8
24	10-14	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.9
25	11-14	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.8
26	12-14	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.4
27	12-15	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.2
28	12-16	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.3
29	13-16	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+0.8
30	13-17	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.0
31	14-17	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+0.8
32	14-18	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Annika Veurink	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.0
33	15-18	NOVA	PROV	Serve err	Villanova		+0.8
34	15-19	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.0
35	16-19	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.8
36	16-20	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Selah O'Connor	+1.0
37	17-20	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Reagan McGivern		+0.8
38	17-21	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+1.0
39	18-21	NOVA	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.7
40	19-21	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+1.6
41	20-21	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Abby Harrell		+2.4
42	20-22	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+2.3
43	21-22	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Abby Harrell		+1.9
44	21-23	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+2.6
45	21-24	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	Villanova	aced Macy Taylor	+2.3
46	22-24	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.7
47	22-25	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.5
Set 3
1	1-0	PROV	PROV	Ace	Providence	aced Abby Harrell	+0.8
2	1-1	PROV	NOVA×4	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
3	1-2	NOVA	NOVA×4	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.8
4	1-3	NOVA	NOVA×4	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.7
5	1-4	NOVA	NOVA×4	Blocked	Lyric Berry	blk Annika Veurink	+0.6
6	2-4	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
7	2-5	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+0.5
8	3-5	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
9	3-6	PROV	NOVA×5	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.5
10	3-7	NOVA	NOVA×5	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
11	3-8	NOVA	NOVA×5	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.5
12	3-9	NOVA	NOVA×5	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.4
13	3-10	NOVA	NOVA×5	Ace	Villanova	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.3
14	4-10	NOVA	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.2
15	4-11	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
16	4-12	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern		+0.2
17	5-12	NOVA	PROV	Bad set	Taylor Lewis		+0.1
18	5-13	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
19	6-13	NOVA	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
20	7-13	PROV	PROV×3	Blocked	Reagan McGivern	blk Lyric Berry, Sophia Adkins	+0.2
21	8-13	PROV	PROV×3	Blocked	Campbell McKinnon	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+0.3
22	8-14	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.3
23	8-15	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.3
24	9-15	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
25	9-16	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
26	10-16	NOVA	PROV	Blocked	Campbell McKinnon	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+0.1
27	11-16	PROV	PROV	Ace	Providence	aced Campbell McKinnon	+0.3
28	11-17	PROV	NOVA	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.3
29	12-17	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
30	13-17	PROV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
31	13-18	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.4
32	14-18	NOVA	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.3
33	14-19	PROV	NOVA	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.4
34	15-19	NOVA	PROV	Attack err	Selah O'Connor		+0.3
35	16-19	PROV	PROV	Blocked	Abby Harrell	blk Shea Dupuis	+0.6
36	16-20	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+0.6
37	16-21	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.5
38	17-21	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.2
39	17-22	PROV	NOVA	Serve err	Providence		+0.3
40	18-22	NOVA	PROV×4	Serve err	Villanova		+0.2
41	19-22	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
42	20-22	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+0.8
43	21-22	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+1.4
44	21-23	PROV	NOVA	Kill	Loren Winn	set Selah O'Connor	+1.4
45	21-24	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	Villanova	aced Gwenyth Koss	+1.2
46	22-24	NOVA	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
47	23-24	PROV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Miller McDonald	+1.2
48	23-25	PROV	NOVA	Attack err	Kaia Easterbrook		+2.0

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Villanova def. Providence 3–0

Providence hit .112. Villanova held them there all match.