Providence vs Xavier Volleyball: Providence Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026XAVIER+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Xavier 84.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Providence won at Xavier 3-0 (25-15, 25-15, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Sophia Adkins and Macy Taylor led Providence with 9 kills each; Xavier's Margo Kemp had a match-high 10.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 16

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PROV	25	25	25	3
XAVIER	15	15	21	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

RallyIQ gave Providence 15%. Providence won anyway.

One stretch decided it. Percentages are Providence's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had Xavier at 85% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 3 · Providence 17–16 Xavier
Providence scored 3 straight to stretch a 17–16 lead to 20–16.
Providence 76% → 91%

Xavier above 50Providence belowMax swing 6.0%

ProvidenceXavier

Sideout %: Providence 76.9·Xavier 52.7
Break %: Providence 47.3·Xavier 23.1
Hitting: Providence .297·Xavier .104
Longest run: Providence 6·Xavier 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Xavier above 50 · Providence below

Biggest swing: 6.0% to Providence — set 3, PROV 19-16 XAVIER. Kill by Tori Otter (set by Miller McDonald). XAVIER win probability 20% → 14%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PROV 26.3%73.7% XAVIER

Providence wins

3-0

4.7%

3-1

9.1%

3-2

12.5%

Xavier wins

3-0

26.0%

3-1

28.2%

3-2

19.5%

PROV break %: 40.4% vs this opp
XAVIER break %: 45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Tori OtterKill+6.0%
Kill by Tori Otter (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 3 · PROV 19-16 XAVIER · PROV 80% → 86%
02
Margo KempAttack error+6.0%
Attack error by Margo Kemp
Set 3 · PROV 24-21 XAVIER · PROV 91% → 96%
03
Macy TaylorKill+5.6%
Kill by Macy Taylor (set by Ava Dyer)
Set 3 · PROV 17-15 XAVIER · PROV 74% → 79%
04
Quinci ThomasAttack error+5.3%
Attack error by Quinci Thomas
Set 3 · PROV 20-16 XAVIER · PROV 86% → 91%
05
Charlotte MoriartyAttack error+4.6%
Attack error by Charlotte Moriarty
Set 3 · PROV 14-13 XAVIER · PROV 68% → 73%
06
Charlotte MoriartyService error+4.5%
Service error by Charlotte Moriarty
Set 3 · PROV 18-16 XAVIER · PROV 76% → 80%
07
Miller McDonaldBad set+4.2%
Bad set by Miller McDonald
Set 3 · PROV 23-21 XAVIER · XAVIER 5% → 9%
08
Sophia AdkinsKill+4.1%
Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 3 · PROV 21-17 XAVIER · PROV 89% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	2	1	1	0	2	7	5.5	12.5
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	9	2	23	.304	1	2	1	5	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	9	1	30	.267	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	9
9Tori OtterMB	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	9
11Lyric BerryMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	2	.000	12	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0
7Shea DupuisOH	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
20Sarah MusialS	3	0	0	3	.000	15	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	1	1	13	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		36	6	101	.297	31	6	3	45	1	2	16	10	75

Xavierhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Margo KempMB	3	10	4	21	.286	0	1	0	3	0	1	0.5	11.5
4Charlotte MoriartyOH	3	8	8	32	.000	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	8
8Macy HatkevichS	3	2	0	10	.200	35	0	1	8	0	1	0.5	2.5
17Gabrielle SemonaMB	3	1	4	9	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Jamison GordonS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
11Kasey QuenichetL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0
14Catherine FlahartyOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9
2Kelsey NiesenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
9Quinci ThomasOH	2	6	3	22	.136	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
10Cameron SherOH	2	3	3	8	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
5Jenna BarhorstS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
7Elouise CzajkowskiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	0
18Iyanna BattleMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	26	125	.104	39	1	6	53	6	2	1	51

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Providence vs Xavier

Season series · Providence leads 1-0

Fri, Oct 16, 2026Providence at Xavier · Providence won 3-0This match
Sat, Nov 14, 2026Xavier at ProvidencePreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 PROV · XAVIER 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 6 PROVXAVIER 2

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 PROVXAVIER 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 PROVXAVIER 4

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	29%2/7
2	83%5/6	50%5/10
3	50%5/10	29%2/7
4	80%4/5	60%6/10
5	100%4/4	43%3/7
6	80%4/5	50%4/8
All	76%28/37	45%22/49

Xavier

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	17%1/6
2	56%5/9	17%1/6
3	42%5/12	38%3/8
4	57%4/7	44%4/9
5	50%4/8	0%0/4
6	67%4/6	0%0/4
All	55%27/49	24%9/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

126 rallies

#	PROV-XAVIER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.0
2	0-2	XAVIER	XAVIER	Ace	Margo Kemp	aced Sophia Adkins	+1.2
3	1-2	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
4	1-3	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.9
5	2-3	XAVIER	PROV	Serve err	Macy Hatkevich		+1.0
6	3-3	PROV	PROV	Ace	Aubrey Easterwood	aced Kasey Quenichet	+1.5
7	3-4	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.1
8	3-5	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.4
9	4-5	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
10	4-6	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Charlotte Moriarty	+1.0
11	5-6	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.1
12	6-6	PROV	PROV	Ace	Sophia Adkins	aced Cameron Sher	+1.7
13	6-7		XAVIER	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.2
14	7-7	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.3
15	7-8	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.2
16	8-8	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+1.3
17	8-9	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.3
18	9-9	XAVIER	PROV×6	Attack err	Gabrielle Semona		+1.4
19	10-9	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+2.1
20	11-9	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+2.3
21	12-9	PROV	PROV×6	Blocked	Charlotte Moriarty	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+2.4
22	13-9	PROV	PROV×6	Blocked	Gabrielle Semona	blk Aubrey Easterwood	+2.4
23	14-9	PROV	PROV×6	Blocked	Charlotte Moriarty	blk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood	+2.2
24	14-10	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.2
25	15-10	XAVIER	PROV	Blocked	Catherine Flaharty	blk Sophia Adkins, Aubrey Easterwood	+1.7
26	16-10	PROV	PROV	Ace	Aubrey Easterwood	aced Charlotte Moriarty	+2.0
27	16-11	PROV	XAVIER	Serve err	Aubrey Easterwood		+1.0
28	16-12	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Cameron Sher	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.7
29	17-12	XAVIER	PROV	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+1.8
30	17-13	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.2
31	18-13	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.8
32	18-14	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.1
33	19-14	XAVIER	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+1.8
34	20-14	PROV	PROV×3	Blocked	Cameron Sher	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+1.7
35	21-14	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.1
36	21-15	PROV	XAVIER	Serve err	Providence		+0.4
37	22-15	XAVIER	PROV×4	Serve err	Kasey Quenichet		+0.7
38	23-15	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+0.4
39	24-15	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Macy Taylor		+0.1
40	25-15	PROV	PROV×4	Blocked	Margo Kemp	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	·
Set 2
1	1-0	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+2.0
2	1-1	PROV	XAVIER	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.8
3	2-1	XAVIER	PROV	Serve err	Elouise Czajkowski		+2.1
4	2-2	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Cameron Sher	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.9
5	2-3	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.5
6	3-3	XAVIER	PROV×5	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.9
7	4-3	PROV	PROV×5	Blocked	Cameron Sher	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+2.9
8	5-3	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Cameron Sher		+3.2
9	6-3	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty		+3.4
10	7-3	PROV	PROV×5	Ace	Sophia Adkins	aced Elouise Czajkowski	+3.5
11	7-4	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.2
12	8-4	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Macy Taylor	+2.7
13	9-4	PROV	PROV	Ace	Ava Dyer		+3.5
14	9-5	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.1
15	10-5	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+2.7
16	11-5	PROV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+3.3
17	11-6	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.8
18	12-6	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+2.5
19	13-6	PROV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+2.9
20	13-7	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.5
21	14-7	XAVIER	PROV	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty		+2.1
22	15-7	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Gabrielle Semona		+2.3
23	15-8	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.0
24	16-8	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.6
25	16-9	PROV	XAVIER	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+1.0
26	16-10	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.8
27	17-10	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+2.0
28	18-10	PROV	PROV	Serve err	Providence		+1.9
29	18-11	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.8
30	18-12	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+1.5
31	19-12	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+1.8
32	20-12	PROV	PROV	Blocked	Charlotte Moriarty	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+1.5
33	20-13	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
34	21-13	XAVIER	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
35	22-13	PROV	PROV×3	Blocked	Quinci Thomas	blk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.6
36	23-13	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
37	23-14	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	·
38	24-14	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sophia Adkins	+0.1
39	24-15	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	·
40	25-15	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	·
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.8
2	1-1	XAVIER	PROV	Serve err	Charlotte Moriarty		+2.0
3	2-1	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty		+3.0
4	2-2	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.1
5	3-2	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+2.3
6	3-3	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.1
7	4-3	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Ava Dyer	+2.4
8	4-4	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.2
9	5-4	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+2.5
10	5-5	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Kelsey Niesen	+2.2
11	6-5	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+2.5
12	7-5	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor		+3.7
13	7-6	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.5
14	7-7	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+3.3
15	8-7	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+2.7
16	8-8	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Gabrielle Semona	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.5
17	8-9	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+3.2
18	9-9	XAVIER	PROV	Blocked	Quinci Thomas	blk Aubrey Easterwood	+2.6
19	10-9	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+3.9
20	10-10	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.7
21	10-11	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+3.5
22	11-11	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+2.8
23	11-12	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.6
24	12-12	XAVIER	PROV	Serve err	Jenna Barhorst		+2.9
25	12-13	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.8
26	13-13	XAVIER	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+3.0
27	14-13	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+4.6
28	14-14	PROV	XAVIER	Serve err	Providence		+3.2
29	15-14	XAVIER	PROV	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+3.7
30	15-15	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Jenna Barhorst	+3.4
31	16-15	XAVIER	PROV	Attack err	Gabrielle Semona		+3.9
32	17-15	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+5.6
33	17-16	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+3.6
34	18-16	XAVIER	PROV×3	Serve err	Charlotte Moriarty		+4.5
35	19-16	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+6.0
36	20-16	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Quinci Thomas		+5.3
37	20-17	PROV	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Kelsey Niesen	+2.6
38	21-17	XAVIER	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+4.1
39	22-17	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins		+3.9
40	23-17	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+2.2
41	23-18	PROV	XAVIER×4	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
42	23-19	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.3
43	23-20	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Blocked	Sophia Adkins	blk Macy Hatkevich, Margo Kemp	+2.4
44	23-21	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Bad set	Miller McDonald		+4.2
45	24-21	XAVIER	PROV	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+6.0
46	25-21	PROV	PROV	Ace	Sarah Musial	aced Charlotte Moriarty	+3.5

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Providence def. Xavier 3–0

RallyIQ gave Providence 15%. Providence won anyway.