FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Providence def. Saint Peter's 3–0

(25-21, 25-21, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ST PTR	21	21	16	0
PROV	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PROV above 50 · ST PTR below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Saint Peter's — set 1, ST PTR 18-16 PROV. Saint Peter's ace on Macy Taylor. PROV win probability 99% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ST PTR 0.6%99.4% PROV

Saint Peter's wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.4%

Providence wins

3-0

78.6%

3-1

18.2%

3-2

2.6%

ST PTR break %: 33.1% vs this opp
PROV break %: 52.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
ST PTR serverAce+0.5%
Saint Peter's ace on Macy Taylor
Set 1 · ST PTR 18-16 PROV · ST PTR 1% → 2%
02
Markela TsagkopoulouAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Markela Tsagkopoulou
Set 1 · ST PTR 18-18 PROV · PROV 98% → 99%
03
Valeria Pagan MunozKill+0.4%
Kill by Valeria Pagan Munoz (set by Ioanna Ververaki)
Set 1 · ST PTR 17-16 PROV · ST PTR 1% → 1%
04
Alondra FargasBad set+0.3%
Bad set by Alondra Fargas
Set 1 · ST PTR 18-19 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%
05
Valeria Pagan MunozKill+0.3%
Kill by Valeria Pagan Munoz (set by Alondra Fargas)
Set 1 · ST PTR 15-14 PROV · ST PTR 1% → 1%
06
Ioanna VerverakiBad set+0.3%
Bad set by Ioanna Ververaki
Set 1 · ST PTR 19-21 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%
07
ST PTR serverService error+0.3%
Saint Peter's service error
Set 1 · ST PTR 18-17 PROV · PROV 98% → 98%
08
Markela TsagkopoulouKill+0.3%
Kill by Markela Tsagkopoulou (set by Markela Tsagkopoulou)
Set 1 · ST PTR 19-19 PROV · ST PTR 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Peter'saway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Valeria Pagan MunozOH	3	8	4	23	.174	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8
21Julia WhaleyMB	3	6	2	14	.286	1	1	0	3	0	1	0.5	7.5
5Karolina T. Rodriguez MendezMB	3	6	2	15	.267	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	7
20Addison BaglioOH	2	7	2	14	.357	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	8
7Victoria PruvostOH	2	0	3	8	-.375	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
8Zumra YavuzS	2	0	0	4	.000	6	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
12Markela TsagkopoulouOH	3	6	5	21	.048	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Drew LeonardisL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1
9Ioanna VerverakiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	5	1	0	0	0
4Elina ArsovOH	2	2	1	11	.091	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	2
3Alondra FargasS	2	0	0	4	.000	10	1	1	4	0	0	0	1
6Meleksu OzmenS	2	0	1	4	-.250	7	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	20	121	.132	30	4	7	32	4	2	1	58

Providencehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	9	0	17	.529	0	0	1	8	2	1	1	1.5	10.5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	8.5
9Tori OtterMB	3	7	1	12	.500	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	3	2	16	.063	1	2	2	12	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Shea DupuisOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	1	0	5	.200	1	1	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
8Gwenyth KossOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Sarah MusialS	3	0	1	5	-.200	12	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	8	89	.292	27	4	5	41	4	5	8	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ST PTR · PROV 7

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 ST PTRPROV 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 ST PTRPROV 4

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 4 ST PTRPROV 7

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = Saint Peter's leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Peter's

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	33%3/9
2	43%6/14	25%2/8
3	75%6/8	25%2/8
4	46%6/13	57%8/14
5	36%5/14	45%5/11
6	33%5/15	44%4/9
All	46%34/74	41%24/59

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	50%6/12
2	86%6/7	54%7/13
3	50%6/12	45%5/11
4	46%6/13	40%4/10
5	63%5/8	71%12/17
6	63%5/8	55%6/11
All	59%35/59	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	ST PTR-PROV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PROV	ST PTR×3	Kill	Drew Leonardis	set Julia Whaley	+0.1
2	2-0	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.1
3	3-0	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.2
4	3-1	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
5	3-2	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost	blk Sophia Adkins	+0.1
6	4-2	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley		+0.1
7	4-3	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
8	5-3	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Ava Dyer	+0.1
9	5-4	ST PTR	PROV	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.1
10	6-4	PROV	ST PTR	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+0.1
11	6-5	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
12	6-6	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Macy Taylor	+0.1
13	7-6	PROV	ST PTR×3	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
14	8-6	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Addison Baglio	+0.2
15	9-6	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Julia Whaley, Markela Tsagkopoulou	+0.3
16	9-7	ST PTR	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Addison Baglio	+0.2
17	9-8	PROV	PROV×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.2
18	9-9	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor		+0.2
19	10-9	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.2
20	10-10	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
21	11-10	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.2
22	11-11	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
23	11-12	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost	blk Sophia Adkins, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.2
24	12-12	PROV	ST PTR	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.1
25	12-13	ST PTR	PROV	Attack err	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez		+0.1
26	12-14	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
27	13-14	PROV	ST PTR×3	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.1
28	14-14	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.2
29	15-14	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.3
30	15-15	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
31	15-16	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.2
32	16-16	PROV	ST PTR×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.2
33	17-16	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.4
34	18-16	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Macy Taylor	+0.5
35	18-17	ST PTR	PROV×3	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.3
36	18-18	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.4
37	18-19	PROV	PROV×3	Bad set	Alondra Fargas		+0.3
38	19-19	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Markela Tsagkopoulou	+0.3
39	19-20	ST PTR	PROV×4	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.3
40	19-21	PROV	PROV×4	Bad set	Ioanna Ververaki		+0.3
41	19-22	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Julia Whaley	blk Macy Taylor, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.2
42	19-23	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Ioanna Ververaki	+0.1
43	20-23	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.0
44	21-23	ST PTR	ST PTR	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.1
45	21-24	ST PTR	PROV	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.1
46	21-25	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins		+0.0
2	1-1	PROV	ST PTR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
3	1-2	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
4	2-2	PROV	ST PTR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
5	2-3	ST PTR	PROV	Attack err	Elina Arsov		+0.0
6	3-3	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
7	3-4	ST PTR	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
8	3-5	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Markela Tsagkopoulou	blk Lyric Berry, Shea Dupuis	+0.0
9	3-6	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
10	4-6	PROV	ST PTR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
11	5-6	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
12	5-7	ST PTR	PROV	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.0
13	6-7	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Alondra Fargas	+0.0
14	7-7	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
15	7-8	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Ava Dyer	+0.1
16	7-9	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.1
17	8-9	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
18	8-10	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
19	8-11	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+0.0
20	9-11	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Drew Leonardis	+0.0
21	9-12	ST PTR	PROV×4	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.0
22	9-13	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
23	9-14	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Drew Leonardis	+0.0
24	9-15	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
25	10-15	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Elina Arsov	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
26	11-15	ST PTR	ST PTR	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Team	+0.0
27	11-16	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Ava Dyer	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
28	12-16	PROV	ST PTR×4	Bad set	Sophia Adkins		+0.0
29	13-16	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.0
30	14-16	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.1
31	15-16	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Kill	Elina Arsov	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.1
32	15-17	ST PTR	PROV	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.1
33	15-18	PROV	PROV	Bad set	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.1
34	16-18	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
35	16-19	ST PTR	PROV	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.1
36	17-19	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
37	18-19	ST PTR	ST PTR	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.1
38	18-20	ST PTR	PROV×4	Bad set	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.1
39	18-21	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.1
40	18-22	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.1
41	18-23	PROV	PROV×4	Bad set	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.0
42	19-23	PROV	ST PTR×3	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Alondra Fargas	+0.0
43	20-23	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Bad set	Sophia Adkins		+0.0
44	21-23	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.1
45	21-24	ST PTR	PROV	Bad set	Victoria Pruvost		+0.1
46	21-25	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter		+0.0
2	1-1	PROV	ST PTR	Bad set	Sophia Adkins		+0.0
3	1-2	ST PTR	PROV×3	Attack err	Elina Arsov		+0.0
4	1-3	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Markela Tsagkopoulou		+0.0
5	1-4	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Drew Leonardis	+0.0
6	2-4	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
7	3-4	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
8	3-5	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
9	3-6	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Meleksu Ozmen	blk Lyric Berry	+0.0
10	4-6	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Markela Tsagkopoulou	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
11	4-7	ST PTR	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
12	4-8	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.0
13	4-9	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
14	5-9	PROV	ST PTR×3	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.0
15	6-9	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.0
16	7-9	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+0.0
17	7-10	ST PTR	PROV×7	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
18	7-11	PROV	PROV×7	Bad set	Elina Arsov		+0.0
19	7-12	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	blk Lyric Berry	+0.0
20	7-13	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz	blk Shea Dupuis	+0.0
21	7-14	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.0
22	7-15	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
23	7-16	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
24	8-16	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.0
25	8-17	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
26	8-18	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Julia Whaley	blk Aubrey Easterwood	+0.0
27	9-18	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.0
28	9-19	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
29	10-19	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
30	10-20	ST PTR	PROV	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.0
31	10-21	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.0
32	11-21	PROV	ST PTR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
33	11-22	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
34	12-22	PROV	ST PTR×4	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
35	13-22	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.0
36	14-22	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.0
37	15-22	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
38	15-23	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
39	15-24	PROV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Macy Taylor	+0.0
40	16-24	PROV	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.0
41	16-25	ST PTR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Saint Peter's first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.