FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Providence def. Manhattan 3–0

(25-14, 25-13, 25-9)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MANHAT	14	13	9	0
PROV	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PROV above 50 · MANHAT below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Manhattan — set 1, MANHAT 5-3 PROV. Attack error by Tori Otter. PROV win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MANHAT 0.8%99.2% PROV

Manhattan wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

Providence wins

3-0

76.5%

3-1

19.6%

3-2

3.2%

MANHAT break %: 33.8% vs this opp
PROV break %: 52.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Tori OtterAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Tori Otter
Set 1 · MANHAT 5-3 PROV · MANHAT 1% → 1%
02
Brooke JohnsonKill+0.2%
Kill by Brooke Johnson (set by Aubrey Easterwood)
Set 1 · MANHAT 8-6 PROV · MANHAT 1% → 1%
03
PROV serverAce+0.2%
Providence ace on Anna Duncan
Set 1 · MANHAT 8-8 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%
04
Hanna KaczynskaKill+0.2%
Kill by Hanna Kaczynska (set by Emilia Kuzniar)
Set 1 · MANHAT 7-5 PROV · MANHAT 1% → 1%
05
Lyric BerryAttack error+0.2%
Lyric Berry stuffed by Abby Morreale & Emma Francesconi
Set 1 · MANHAT 2-0 PROV · MANHAT 1% → 1%
06
Hanna KaczynskaKill+0.2%
Kill by Hanna Kaczynska (set by Emilia Kuzniar)
Set 1 · MANHAT 6-4 PROV · MANHAT 1% → 1%
07
PROV serverAce+0.2%
Providence ace on Emma Francesconi
Set 1 · MANHAT 8-9 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%
08
Macy TaylorKill+0.2%
Kill by Macy Taylor (set by Ava Dyer)
Set 1 · MANHAT 8-7 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Manhattanaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Katie PowersOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	5
8Emma FrancesconiOH	3	3	4	17	-.059	0	1	0	6	2	1	0.5	4.5
11Abby MorrealeMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Brooke JohnsonOH	3	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
10Ori BrigerS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
12Helenn MontillaMB	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	3	7	4	23	.130	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
15Anna DuncanDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0
4Emilia KuzniarS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Lyla AuthMB	2	0	2	2	-1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Julia PflegerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
7Margaret OBrienOH	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Karsyn HarrisOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	22	86	-.012	20	1	7	21	6	2	1	36

Providencehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	9	0	14	.643	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	7	1	8	.750	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	9	0	17	.529	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9
11Lyric BerryMB	3	4	2	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
9Tori OtterMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	5	1	4	0	0	0	0	5
7Shea DupuisOH	3	3	1	10	.200	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	5
20Sarah MusialS	3	1	0	1	1.000	13	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	1	17	0	0	0	0	1
8Gwenyth KossOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	0
12Fielding MayhughOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
32Lyla BuserOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Megan WeldonOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
27Kaia EasterbrookMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Kelsey HolmesOH	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	6	74	.459	35	6	7	40	1	1	16	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MANHAT · PROV 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 MANHATPROV 6

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 3 MANHATPROV 4

Set 3

9-25

Longest run 2 MANHATPROV 8

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	24%6/25	20%1/5
2	45%5/11	14%1/7
3	50%5/10	0%0/5
4	42%5/12	44%4/9
5	31%4/13	29%2/7
6	100%3/3	0%0/4
All	38%28/74	22%8/37

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	75%15/20
2	100%5/5	58%7/12
3	63%5/8	50%5/10
4	83%5/6	64%9/14
5	71%5/7	58%7/12
6	75%3/4	50%3/6
All	78%29/37	62%46/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

111 rallies

Rally log

#	MANHAT-PROV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.1
2	2-0	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Lyric Berry	blk Abby Morreale, Emma Francesconi	+0.2
3	2-1	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
4	3-1	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.2
5	3-2	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
6	3-3	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.1
7	4-3	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.1
8	5-3	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.2
9	5-4	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
10	6-4	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.2
11	6-5	MANHAT	PROV	Attack err	Helenn Montilla	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.1
12	7-5	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.2
13	7-6	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.2
14	8-6	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Aubrey Easterwood	+0.2
15	8-7	MANHAT	PROV×6	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+0.2
16	8-8	PROV	PROV×6	Ace	PROV server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.2
17	8-9	PROV	PROV×6	Ace	PROV server	aced Emma Francesconi	+0.2
18	8-10	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter	+0.1
19	8-11	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.1
20	8-12	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Katie Powers	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+0.1
21	9-12	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.1
22	9-13	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Gwenyth Koss	+0.1
23	10-13	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.1
24	10-14	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
25	11-14	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.1
26	12-14	MANHAT	MANHAT	Bad set	Miller McDonald		+0.1
27	12-15	MANHAT	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
28	12-16	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
29	12-17	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
30	12-18	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
31	13-18	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
32	13-19	MANHAT	PROV×6	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
33	13-20	PROV	PROV×6	Kill	Macy Taylor		+0.0
34	13-21	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.0
35	13-22	PROV	PROV×6	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
36	13-23	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+0.0
37	13-24	PROV	PROV×6	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
38	14-24	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
39	14-25	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Sarah Musial	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
2	0-2	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.1
3	1-2	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
4	1-3	MANHAT	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
5	1-4	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
6	1-5	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lyla Auth	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins	+0.0
7	1-6	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
8	2-6	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
9	2-7	MANHAT	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
10	2-8	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.0
11	2-9	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor		+0.0
12	3-9	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
13	3-10	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
14	4-10	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
15	4-11	MANHAT	PROV×4	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
16	4-12	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
17	4-13	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
18	4-14	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
19	5-14	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
20	5-15	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
21	6-15	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
22	6-16	MANHAT	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
23	6-17	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lyla Auth		+0.0
24	6-18	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Emma Francesconi	+0.0
25	6-19	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.0
26	7-19	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
27	7-20	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
28	8-20	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
29	8-21	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
30	8-22	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.0
31	9-22	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
32	10-22	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.0
33	10-23	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
34	10-24	PROV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
35	11-24	PROV	MANHAT×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
36	12-24	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Gwenyth Koss	+0.0
37	13-24	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.0
38	13-25	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Brooke Johnson	+0.0
2	0-2	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+0.0
3	0-3	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
4	1-3	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.0
5	1-4	MANHAT	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
6	1-5	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+0.0
7	1-6	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
8	2-6	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Ori Briger	+0.0
9	2-7	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
10	2-8	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
11	3-8	PROV	MANHAT	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.0
12	4-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
13	4-9	MANHAT	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
14	4-10	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.0
15	4-11	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Margaret OBrien		+0.0
16	4-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Margaret OBrien		+0.0
17	5-12	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Lyla Auth	+0.0
18	5-13	MANHAT	PROV	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
19	5-14	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Shea Dupuis	+0.0
20	6-14	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
21	6-15	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
22	7-15	PROV	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
23	8-15	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Ori Briger	+0.0
24	8-16	MANHAT	PROV×8	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
25	8-17	PROV	PROV×8	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
26	8-18	PROV	PROV×8	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
27	8-19	PROV	PROV×8	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
28	8-20	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
29	8-21	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Abby Morreale	blk Lyric Berry	+0.0
30	8-22	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
31	8-23	PROV	PROV×8	Ace	PROV server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
32	9-23	PROV	MANHAT	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
33	9-24	MANHAT	PROV	Kill	Lyla Buser	set Kelsey Holmes	+0.0
34	9-25	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.