Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Marquette def. Villanova 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Marquette 87.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marquette beat visiting Villanova 3-1 (25-18, 25-15, 19-25, 25-22) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Marquette's Tani Juric led with 17 kills, and Emi Juric added 23 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
NOVA181525221
MARQ252519253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Serve, receive, attack, block: Marquette won all four.

Win probability never moved more than 2.5 points on one rally; Villanova topped out at 13% in Set 4. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Marquette at 88%.

VillanovaMarquette
  • Break %+9.4 pts
    35.845.2

    42 of 93 on serve vs 29 of 81, so Villanova's sideout was 54.8%.

  • Hitting+.136
    .190.326

    58 kills, 14 errors vs 50 kills, 22 errors.

  • Longest run+1
    56

    Marquette scored 6 straight in the first set to go from 1–1 to a 7–1 lead. That set ended 25–18.

Marquette above 50Villanova belowMax swing 2.5%

VillanovaMarquette

Aces
Villanova 4·Marquette 5
Serve err
Villanova 9·Marquette 10
Blocks
Villanova 3·Marquette 131 BS · 4 BA vs 3 BS · 20 BA
Digs
Villanova 55·Marquette 64

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Marquette above 50 · Villanova below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% NOVArally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Villanova — set 4, NOVA 9-7 MARQ. Attack error by Carson Tyler. MARQ win probability 89% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NOVA 9.7%90.3% MARQ

Villanova wins

3-0
1.3%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
5.5%

Marquette wins

3-0
45.0%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
13.8%
NOVA break %
36.8% vs this opp
MARQ break %
46.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Carson TylerAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Carson Tyler

    Set 4 · NOVA 9-7 MARQ · NOVA 11% → 13%

  2. 02

    Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 4 · NOVA 17-18 MARQ · NOVA 5% → 7%

  3. 03

    Taylor Lewis stuffed by Molly Welge & Caydence Doolan

    Set 4 · NOVA 17-20 MARQ · MARQ 95% → 97%

  4. 04
    Carson TylerBlock+2.2%

    Annika Veurink stuffed by Carson Tyler

    Set 4 · NOVA 9-9 MARQ · MARQ 88% → 91%

  5. 05

    Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 4 · NOVA 4-2 MARQ · NOVA 10% → 12%

  6. 06
    Taylor LewisKill+2.1%

    Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 4 · NOVA 6-5 MARQ · NOVA 8% → 10%

  7. 07
    Tani JuricKill+2.1%

    Kill by Tani Juric (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 4 · NOVA 9-10 MARQ · MARQ 91% → 93%

  8. 08

    Kill by Caydence Doolan (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 4 · NOVA 17-19 MARQ · MARQ 93% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415956.10710140010.515.5
48318.2780001012210
410217.4710000000010
48223.261101410008
4214.2504222110010.54.5
43317.0000021020003
4000–2221510002
4000–100800000
23211.091000000003
2000–001100000
2000–000000000
11011.000000100001
1000–000000000
Team totals5022147.190474955514380
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417332.4381003004219
49538.1051552212216
48113.5381000004210
4519.4444001130132.57.5
4307.429100400636
4002.000102810000
416434.35300041111.517.5
4000–100700000
4000–001000000
4000–7012300000
1000–000000000
Team totals5814135.326535106443201394

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Villanova vs Marquette

Season series · Marquette leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NOVA · MARQ 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 NOVAMARQ 6

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 NOVAMARQ 5

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 NOVAMARQ 4

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 5 NOVAMARQ 5

Bars above the line = Marquette leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Villanova

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%6/14
38%3/8
2
42%5/12
50%6/12
3
100%4/4
20%1/5
4
80%4/5
43%3/7
5
80%4/5
0%0/4
6
100%4/4
0%0/4
All
61%27/44
33%13/40

Marquette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%6/14
29%2/7
2
83%5/6
63%10/16
3
57%4/7
43%3/7
4
100%4/4
0%0/4
5
100%4/4
20%1/5
6
80%4/5
20%1/5
All
68%27/40
39%17/44

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#NOVA-MARQSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MARQMARQBlockedTaylor Lewisblk Julia Stanev, Carson Tyler+1.1
21-1MARQNOVAKillCat Young+0.9
31-2NOVAMARQ×6KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.9
41-3MARQMARQ×6BlockedCat Youngblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+1.1
51-4MARQMARQ×6Attack errReagan McGivern+0.9
61-5MARQMARQ×6KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.8
71-6MARQMARQ×6KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.6
81-7MARQMARQ×6AceCarson Tyler+0.5
92-7MARQNOVAServe errCarson Tyler+0.3
102-8NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
112-9MARQMARQKillTani Juricset Emi Juric+0.4
123-9MARQNOVA×3KillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
134-9NOVANOVA×3KillAlyssa Nelsonset Mina Diggs+0.4
145-9NOVANOVA×3AceVillanovaaced Caydence Doolan+0.6
155-10NOVAMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.5
165-11MARQMARQ×3BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus+0.5
175-12MARQMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.4
186-12MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
196-13NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.3
207-13MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
217-14NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+0.3
228-14MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
239-14NOVA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
249-15NOVAMARQKillLuanna Markus+0.4
2510-15MARQNOVAKillTaylor Lewis+0.3
2611-15NOVANOVAAttack errCarson Tyler+0.6
2711-16NOVAMARQAttack errCampbell McKinnonset Mina Diggs+0.5
2812-16MARQNOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
2913-16NOVANOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
3013-17NOVAMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.8
3113-18MARQMARQ×3Attack errAlyssa Nelson+0.8
3213-19MARQMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+0.5
3314-19MARQNOVABlockedCaydence Doolanblk Reagan McGivern, Alyssa Nelson+0.2
3414-20NOVAMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.3
3514-21MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.2
3615-21MARQNOVAAttack errCaydence Doolanset Emi Juric+0.1
3715-22NOVAMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.1
3816-22MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+0.1
3916-23NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Molly Welge+0.1
4017-23MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson·
4117-24NOVAMARQBlockedCat Youngblk Luanna Markus, Julia Stanev+0.1
4218-24MARQNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson·
4318-25NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus·
Set 2
11-0NOVANOVAAttack errLuanna Markus+0.9
22-0NOVANOVAAttack errTani Juric+1.1
32-1NOVAMARQ×5Serve errVillanova+0.7
42-2MARQMARQ×5BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+0.9
52-3MARQMARQ×5BlockedReagan McGivernblk Caydence Doolan+0.9
62-4MARQMARQ×5AceCarson Tyleraced Mina Diggs+0.8
72-5MARQMARQ×5KillJulia Stanevset Luanna Markus+0.7
83-5MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Marikate Ritterbusch+0.5
93-6NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.5
104-6MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
114-7NOVAMARQBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Molly Welge, Tani Juric+0.5
125-7MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
135-8NOVAMARQKillLuanna Markusset Emi Juric+0.5
146-8MARQNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
156-9NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.5
166-10MARQMARQBlockedCat Youngblk Luanna Markus+0.6
177-10MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+0.4
187-11NOVAMARQKillJulia Stanevset Tani Juric+0.5
198-11MARQNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.4
208-12NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.5
219-12MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
229-13NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+0.5
2310-13MARQNOVAAttack errTani Juricset Emi Juric+0.5
2410-14NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+0.5
2511-14MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
2611-15NOVAMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.5
2711-16MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Emi Juric+0.5
2812-16MARQNOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
2912-17NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+0.4
3013-17MARQNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3113-18NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.4
3214-18MARQNOVAKillAlyssa Nelson+0.3
3314-19NOVAMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.4
3414-20MARQMARQ×3AceCarson Tyleraced Cat Young+0.3
3514-21MARQMARQ×3BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+0.2
3615-21MARQNOVAServe errCarson Tyler+0.1
3715-22NOVAMARQ×4KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.1
3815-23MARQMARQ×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon·
3915-24MARQMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Emi Juric·
4015-25MARQMARQ×4Attack errAnnika Veurink·
Set 3
11-0MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+0.3
22-0NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
32-1NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.3
43-1MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.4
53-2NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.3
64-2MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.4
75-2NOVANOVAAttack errCaydence Doolan+0.6
85-3NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.4
96-3MARQNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.4
106-4NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+0.4
117-4MARQNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
127-5NOVAMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.4
138-5MARQNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Campbell McKinnon+0.5
148-6NOVAMARQKillLuanna Markusset Avery Helms+0.4
158-7MARQMARQAttack errCampbell McKinnon+0.5
169-7MARQNOVA×4KillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
1710-7NOVANOVA×4KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
1811-7NOVANOVA×4KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
1912-7NOVANOVA×4KillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
2012-8NOVAMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+0.4
2112-9MARQMARQ×4KillCaydence Doolan+0.6
2212-10MARQMARQ×4KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.6
2312-11MARQMARQ×4AceCarson Tyleraced Taylor Lewis+0.6
2413-11MARQNOVAServe errCarson Tyler+0.6
2514-11NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.8
2614-12NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.5
2715-12MARQNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
2816-12NOVANOVA×3BlockedMolly Welgeblk Reagan McGivern+0.8
2917-12NOVANOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
3017-13NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.4
3118-13MARQNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
3218-14NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.4
3319-14MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+0.5
3419-15NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.3
3520-15MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
3621-15NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Carson Tyler+0.5
3721-16NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Julia Stanev+0.2
3821-17MARQMARQBlockedChloe Kellyblk Carson Tyler, Julia Stanev+0.4
3922-17MARQNOVA×3KillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
4023-17NOVANOVA×3AceVillanovaaced Carson Tyler+0.4
4124-17NOVANOVA×3Attack errCarson Tyler+0.1
4224-18NOVAMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus·
4324-19MARQMARQAceCarson Tyleraced Cat Young+0.1
4425-19MARQNOVAServe errCarson Tyler+0.1
Set 4
11-0NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Avery Helms+1.8
21-1NOVAMARQServe errVillanova+1.2
32-1MARQNOVAKillAnnika Veurink+1.4
42-2NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+1.3
53-2MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+1.4
64-2NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+2.1
74-3NOVAMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+1.4
84-4MARQMARQ×3KillLuanna Markusset Allie Beers+1.8
94-5MARQMARQ×3Attack errReagan McGivern+1.7
105-5MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.4
116-5NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.1
126-6NOVAMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.4
137-6MARQNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.6
147-7NOVAMARQKillLuanna Markusset Carson Tyler+1.5
158-7MARQNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+1.7
169-7NOVANOVAAttack errCarson Tyler+2.5
179-8NOVAMARQ×3Serve errVillanova+1.6
189-9MARQMARQ×3BlockedAnnika Veurinkblk Carson Tyler+2.2
199-10MARQMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.1
2010-10MARQNOVAAttack errCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.6
2110-11NOVAMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.5
2210-12MARQMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+1.9
2310-13MARQMARQ×3KillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+1.6
2411-13MARQNOVAServe errMarquette+1.2
2512-13NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Mina Diggs+2.0
2612-14NOVAMARQ×5Serve errVillanova+1.5
2712-15MARQMARQ×5Attack errCampbell McKinnon+1.8
2812-16MARQMARQ×5KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.4
2912-17MARQMARQ×5KillMolly Welge+1.0
3012-18MARQMARQ×5KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+0.7
3113-18MARQNOVA×5KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3214-18NOVANOVA×5BlockedTani Juricblk Reagan McGivern, Campbell McKinnon+0.7
3315-18NOVANOVA×5Attack errCarson Tyler+1.2
3416-18NOVANOVA×5Attack errCaydence Doolan+1.7
3517-18NOVANOVA×5KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+2.5
3617-19NOVAMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.0
3717-20MARQMARQ×3BlockedTaylor Lewisblk Molly Welge, Caydence Doolan+2.2
3817-21MARQMARQ×3BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus+1.5
3918-21MARQNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.8
4018-22NOVAMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+1.1
4118-23MARQMARQKillMolly Welge+0.8
4219-23MARQNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
4319-24NOVAMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
4420-24MARQNOVA×3KillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
4521-24NOVANOVA×3KillMichelle Eburuoh+0.4
4622-24NOVA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
4722-25NOVAMARQAttack errChloe Kellyset Selah O'Connor+1.6

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).