FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayWCC

0:3

HomeBIG-SKY

Northern Colo. def. Denver 3–0

(25-22, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DENVER	22	21	20	0
N COLO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

N COLO above 50 · DENVER below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to Northern Colo. — set 1, DENVER 22-25 N COLO. Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge). N COLO win probability 78% → 81%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DENVER 33.2%66.8% N COLO

Denver wins

3-0

6.6%

3-1

11.8%

3-2

14.8%

Northern Colo. wins

3-0

21.1%

3-1

25.6%

3-2

20.0%

DENVER break %: 44.0% vs this opp
N COLO break %: 47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gillian WaltonKill+3.0%
Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)
Set 1 · DENVER 22-25 N COLO · N COLO 78% → 81%
02
Gillian WaltonKill+2.7%
Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)
Set 1 · DENVER 11-13 N COLO · N COLO 68% → 71%
03
Alayna TessenaAttack error+2.7%
Alayna Tessena stuffed by Quinlan Jones
Set 1 · DENVER 10-10 N COLO · DENVER 31% → 34%
04
Jamia JohnsonAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Jamia Johnson
Set 1 · DENVER 12-15 N COLO · N COLO 71% → 74%
05
Gillian WaltonKill+2.4%
Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)
Set 1 · DENVER 11-12 N COLO · N COLO 66% → 68%
06
Gillian WaltonKill+2.4%
Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)
Set 1 · DENVER 12-14 N COLO · N COLO 69% → 71%
07
Katelyn LandisKill+2.4%
Kill by Katelyn Landis (set by Lily Van Hal)
Set 1 · DENVER 4-3 N COLO · DENVER 33% → 36%
08
Alicia ThibodeauKill+2.4%
Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Madison Winkler)
Set 1 · DENVER 11-11 N COLO · DENVER 32% → 34%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Denveraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Alicia ThibodeauOH	3	11	2	33	.273	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11
24Kayla PatelOH	3	7	4	20	.150	0	2	1	9	1	0	2	1	10
18Jamia JohnsonOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
7Elise HartMB	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
13Lily Van HalS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
15Katelyn LandisMB	2	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
88Quinlan JonesOH	3	3	0	9	.333	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	4
10Ilayda ErenS	3	0	0	2	.000	14	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
1Madison WinklerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	14	0	0	0	0	0
4Emersen WergerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Romi ChlebecekOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
16Izabela MolinaMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
Team totals		39	10	109	.266	36	4	4	42	4	2	6	5	63

Northern Colo.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Gillian WaltonOH	3	19	5	28	.500	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	19.5
11Alayna TessenaOH	3	13	3	29	.345	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	15
13Summer SneadMB	3	6	0	18	.333	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	8.5
3Nerea Alvarez-JorgeS	3	6	1	8	.625	38	0	1	8	0	1	0	1	7
14Maddie RinkMB	3	5	1	12	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
8Leila BallardOH	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	0	1
4Kylie CackovicOH	3	5	2	20	.150	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
16Bella LePoreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	14	0	0	0	0	1
15Jasmine OgrenDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
5Addison RoarkMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		54	12	118	.356	46	4	5	50	4	3	4	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 DENVER · N COLO 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 DENVERN COLO 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 DENVERN COLO 6

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 6 DENVERN COLO 5

Bars above the line = Northern Colo. leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Denver

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	27%3/11
2	37%7/19	22%2/9
3	67%6/9	30%3/10
4	50%6/12	60%9/15
5	46%6/13	54%7/13
6	100%6/6	14%1/7
All	52%38/73	38%25/65

Northern Colo.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	25%2/8
2	78%7/9	56%9/16
3	50%7/14	56%9/16
4	40%6/15	33%3/9
5	67%6/9	63%10/16
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	62%40/65	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	DENVER-N COLO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+2.2
2	1-1	DENVER	N COLO	Serve err	DENVER server		+1.8
3	1-2	N COLO	N COLO	Ace	N COLO server	aced Alicia Thibodeau	+2.1
4	2-2	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Kylie Cackovic		+1.8
5	2-3	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.8
6	3-3	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.9
7	4-3	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Lily Van Hal	+2.4
8	4-4	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.9
9	4-5	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Maddie Rink		+2.3
10	5-5	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+2.0
11	5-6	DENVER	N COLO×4	Attack err	Kayla Patel	blk Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.9
12	5-7	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Maddie Rink		+2.2
13	5-8	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.1
14	5-9	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	set Ilayda Eren	+1.9
15	6-9	N COLO	DENVER×3	Serve err	N COLO server		+1.5
16	7-9	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.0
17	8-9	DENVER	DENVER×3	Ace	DENVER server	aced Team	+2.3
18	8-10	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.0
19	9-10	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+2.0
20	10-10	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Alayna Tessena	blk Quinlan Jones	+2.7
21	10-11	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.3
22	11-11	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+2.4
23	11-12	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.4
24	11-13	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.7
25	12-13	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+2.2
26	12-14	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.4
27	12-15	N COLO	N COLO	Attack err	Jamia Johnson		+2.6
28	13-15	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+2.0
29	13-16	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.2
30	14-16	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+2.0
31	14-17	DENVER	N COLO×3	Kill	Kylie Cackovic	set Bella LePore	+2.3
32	14-18	N COLO	N COLO×3	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+2.3
33	14-19	N COLO	N COLO×3	Kill	Maddie Rink	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.7
34	15-19	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Alayna Tessena		+1.1
35	15-20	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge		+1.4
36	15-21	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Summer Snead	set Alayna Tessena	+1.1
37	16-21	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Alayna Tessena		+0.5
38	16-22	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge		+0.8
39	17-22	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.4
40	17-23	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.7
41	18-23	N COLO	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+0.3
42	19-23	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Madison Winkler	+0.6
43	20-23	DENVER	DENVER×3	Bad set	Summer Snead		+1.2
44	20-24	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.8
45	21-24	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+0.6
46	22-24	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Gillian Walton	blk Kayla Patel, Katelyn Landis	+1.7
47	22-25	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+3.0
Set 2
1	0-1	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Summer Snead	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.8
2	0-2	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.7
3	1-2	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+1.4
4	1-3	DENVER	N COLO×5	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Bella LePore	+1.4
5	1-4	N COLO	N COLO×5	Bad set	Lily Van Hal		+1.6
6	1-5	N COLO	N COLO×5	Attack err	Kayla Patel	blk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton	+1.5
7	1-6	N COLO	N COLO×5	Attack err	Jamia Johnson	blk Summer Snead	+1.3
8	1-7	N COLO	N COLO×5	Kill	Summer Snead	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.1
9	2-7	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Gillian Walton		+0.8
10	2-8	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Kylie Cackovic	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.9
11	3-8	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
12	4-8	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Gillian Walton		+1.2
13	4-9	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.1
14	4-10	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	set Maddie Rink	+1.1
15	5-10	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
16	5-11	DENVER	N COLO×6	Serve err	DENVER server		+0.9
17	5-12	N COLO	N COLO×6	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau		+0.9
18	5-13	N COLO	N COLO×6	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	set Lily Van Hal	+0.7
19	5-14	N COLO	N COLO×6	Ace	N COLO server	aced Team	+0.5
20	5-15	N COLO	N COLO×6	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau		+0.3
21	5-16	N COLO	N COLO×6	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Bella LePore	+0.2
22	6-16	N COLO	DENVER	Serve err	N COLO server		+0.1
23	6-17	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.1
24	7-17	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+0.1
25	8-17	DENVER	DENVER	Ace	DENVER server	aced Jasmine Ogren	+0.2
26	8-18	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Summer Snead	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.2
27	9-18	N COLO	DENVER	Serve err	N COLO server		+0.1
28	9-19	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.2
29	10-19	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Emersen Werger	+0.1
30	10-20	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Kylie Cackovic	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.1
31	10-21	N COLO	N COLO	Attack err	Kayla Patel		+0.1
32	11-21	N COLO	DENVER×4	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+0.0
33	12-21	DENVER	DENVER×4	Kill	Kayla Patel		+0.1
34	13-21	DENVER	DENVER×4	Ace	DENVER server	aced Team	+0.1
35	14-21	DENVER	DENVER×4	Attack err	Gillian Walton	blk Katelyn Landis, Kayla Patel	+0.2
36	14-22	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Maddie Rink	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.2
37	15-22	N COLO	DENVER×5	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+0.1
38	16-22	DENVER	DENVER×5	Attack err	Maddie Rink		+0.2
39	17-22	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.4
40	18-22	DENVER	DENVER×5	Ace	DENVER server	aced Team	+0.7
41	19-22	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Quinlan Jones	+1.3
42	19-23	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	set Ilayda Eren	+1.7
43	20-23	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.9
44	20-24	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.5
45	21-24	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.5
46	21-25	DENVER	N COLO	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau	blk Summer Snead	+1.1
Set 3
1	1-0	DENVER	DENVER	Bad set	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge		+1.1
2	1-1	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.9
3	2-1	N COLO	DENVER	Serve err	N COLO server		+0.9
4	2-2	DENVER	N COLO×4	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.9
5	2-3	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.1
6	2-4	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.0
7	2-5	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Maddie Rink	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.0
8	3-5	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
9	4-5	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Ilayda Eren	+1.0
10	4-6	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+0.9
11	4-7	N COLO	N COLO	Attack err	Kayla Patel		+1.0
12	5-7	N COLO	DENVER×6	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
13	6-7	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Alicia Thibodeau	+1.1
14	7-7	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+1.2
15	8-7	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Lily Van Hal	+1.3
16	9-7	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Romi Chlebecek		+1.3
17	10-7	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Elise Hart		+1.3
18	10-8	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Kylie Cackovic	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.0
19	11-8	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Lily Van Hal	+1.2
20	11-9	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.0
21	11-10	N COLO	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.3
22	12-10	N COLO	DENVER	Serve err	N COLO server		+1.3
23	12-11	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Leila Ballard	+1.2
24	13-11	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+1.3
25	13-12	DENVER	N COLO	Serve err	DENVER server		+1.2
26	14-12	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Ilayda Eren	+1.4
27	14-13	DENVER	N COLO×5	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.2
28	14-14	N COLO	N COLO×5	Attack err	Jamia Johnson	blk Kylie Cackovic, Maddie Rink	+1.6
29	14-15	N COLO	N COLO×5	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Bella LePore	+1.6
30	14-16	N COLO	N COLO×5	Bad set	Ilayda Eren		+1.5
31	14-17	N COLO	N COLO×5	Ace	N COLO server	aced Quinlan Jones	+1.4
32	15-17	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Kylie Cackovic	blk Jamia Johnson, Izabela Molina	+1.0
33	15-18	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Gillian Walton	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.2
34	16-18	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Ilayda Eren	+1.0
35	16-19	DENVER	N COLO	Serve err	DENVER server		+1.2
36	17-19	N COLO	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.1
37	18-19	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge		+1.7
38	18-20	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Alayna Tessena	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.6
39	19-20	N COLO	DENVER	Bad set	Nerea Alvarez-Jorge		+1.5
40	19-21	DENVER	N COLO	Kill	Summer Snead	set Nerea Alvarez-Jorge	+1.8
41	20-21	N COLO	DENVER	Attack err	Gillian Walton	blk Izabela Molina	+1.6
42	20-22	DENVER	N COLO×4	Attack err	Izabela Molina		+2.0
43	20-23	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Summer Snead		+1.8
44	20-24	N COLO	N COLO×4	Ace	N COLO server	aced Kayla Patel	+1.1
45	20-25	N COLO	N COLO×4	Kill	Kylie Cackovic	set Bella LePore	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.