FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Villanova def. UConn 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Villanova 78.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Villanova beat visiting UConn 3-0 (25-20, 25-19, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Villanova's Campbell McKinnon led with 13 kills, and Mina Diggs added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set123Sets
UCONN2019190
NOVA2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Villanova swept UConn, and no set was closer than 5 points.

Win probability never moved more than 2.4 points on one rally; UConn topped out at 22% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave Villanova 78% before first serve.

UConnVillanova
  • Break %+14.0 pts
    36.750.7

    On serve: 37/73 against 22/60 (UConn sideout 49.3%).

  • Hitting+.092
    .115.207

    Kills and errors: 35–17 vs 31–20.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    6 straight Villanova points in the second set turned an 11–12 deficit into a 17–12 lead. That set ended 25–19.

Villanova above 50UConn belowMax swing 2.4%

UConnVillanova

Aces
UConn 2·Villanova 6
Serve err
UConn 11·Villanova 8
Blocks
UConn 9·Villanova 93 BS · 12 BA vs 3 BS · 12 BA
Digs
UConn 27·Villanova 41

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Villanova above 50 · UConn below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.4% UCONNrally 133 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.4% to UConn — set 1, UCONN 14-15 NOVA. Kill by Helena Einarsdottir. NOVA win probability 82% → 80%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCONN 21.8%78.2% NOVA

UConn wins

3-0
3.7%
3-1
7.4%
3-2
10.8%

Villanova wins

3-0
29.8%
3-1
29.7%
3-2
18.7%
UCONN break %
39.1% vs this opp
NOVA break %
45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Helena Einarsdottir

    Set 1 · UCONN 14-15 NOVA · UCONN 18% → 20%

  2. 02

    Kill by Reagan McGivern (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · UCONN 14-17 NOVA · NOVA 81% → 84%

  3. 03
    Jordyn HughesKill+2.1%

    Kill by Jordyn Hughes (set by Audrey Jensen)

    Set 1 · UCONN 5-5 NOVA · UCONN 20% → 22%

  4. 04
    Sydney BorowyAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Sydney Borowy

    Set 2 · UCONN 12-13 NOVA · NOVA 87% → 89%

  5. 05
    Courtney GraysonAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Courtney Grayson

    Set 2 · UCONN 11-11 NOVA · NOVA 85% → 87%

  6. 06

    Maja Daca stuffed by Loren Winn & Reagan McGivern

    Set 2 · UCONN 11-10 NOVA · NOVA 83% → 85%

  7. 07
    Jordyn HughesBlock+2.0%

    Cat Young stuffed by Jordyn Hughes

    Set 1 · UCONN 16-18 NOVA · UCONN 16% → 17%

  8. 08
    Taylor LewisKill+1.9%

    Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · UCONN 5-7 NOVA · NOVA 79% → 81%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UConnaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39319.316002410009
34211.182000101437
35727-.07400030031.56.5
35413.07700000111.56.5
3001.000250340031.51.5
25417.059101220005
3000–213910001
3001.000000210000
3000–001100000
2307.42901110111.55.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals312096.11528211276312958
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313531.25803230111.517.5
37620.05001160031.59.5
3507.714010000217
3125-.200000102445
3001.0002702700000
3000–000210000
36317.17600140010.56.5
3102.500000300001
3000–1111200001
2214.25000100010.52.5
2000–000100000
2000–600200000
Team totals351787.2073468412312975

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UConn vs Villanova

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 UCONN · NOVA 6

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 UCONNNOVA 3

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 UCONNNOVA 6

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 2 UCONNNOVA 4

Bars above the line = Villanova leads, below = UConn leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UConn

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%7/17
36%4/11
2
64%7/11
42%5/12
3
46%6/13
46%6/13
4
46%6/13
40%4/10
5
50%5/10
25%2/8
6
56%5/9
17%1/6
All
49%36/73
37%22/60

Villanova

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
54%7/13
2
64%7/11
53%8/15
3
54%7/13
22%2/9
4
60%6/10
57%8/14
5
100%5/5
58%7/12
6
83%5/6
50%5/10
All
63%38/60
51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#UCONN-NOVASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
20-2NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.7
31-2NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+1.2
41-3UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+1.2
51-4NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Maja Daca+1.6
62-4NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+1.0
73-4UCONNUCONNKillJordyn Hughes+1.8
83-5UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+1.2
94-5NOVAUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+1.3
105-5UCONNUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+2.1
115-6UCONNNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.4
125-7NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.9
136-7NOVAUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+1.3
146-8UCONNNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
156-9NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.8
167-9NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.2
177-10UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
187-11NOVANOVABlockedCourtney Graysonblk Annika Veurink+1.5
198-11NOVAUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+0.9
209-11UCONNUCONNBlockedAnnika Veurinkblk Courtney Grayson+1.7
219-12UCONNNOVA×3Serve errUConn+1.3
229-13NOVANOVA×3BlockedMaja Dacablk Annika Veurink+1.6
239-14NOVANOVA×3Bad setAudrey Jensen+1.2
2410-14NOVAUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+0.7
2511-14UCONNUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.4
2611-15UCONNNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+1.1
2712-15NOVAUCONN×3BlockedTaylor Lewisblk Audrey Jensen+1.0
2813-15UCONNUCONN×3KillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+1.9
2914-15UCONNUCONN×3KillHelena Einarsdottir+2.4
3014-16UCONNNOVA×3Serve errUConn+1.8
3114-17NOVANOVA×3KillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
3214-18NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Mina Diggs+1.8
3315-18NOVAUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+0.9
3416-18UCONNUCONNBlockedCat Youngblk Jordyn Hughes+2.0
3516-19UCONNNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.7
3616-20NOVANOVA×3KillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+1.8
3716-21NOVANOVA×3Attack errMaja Daca+1.1
3817-21NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.4
3917-22UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+0.7
4018-22NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.3
4118-23UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
4218-24NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Grace Maria+0.3
4319-24NOVAUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen·
4420-24UCONNUCONNAttack errAnnika Veurink+0.2
4520-25UCONNNOVABlockedCourtney Graysonblk Campbell McKinnon+0.2
Set 2
11-0NOVAUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.1
22-0UCONNUCONN×4AceUConnaced Marikate Ritterbusch+1.7
33-0UCONNUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Maja Daca+1.7
44-0UCONNUCONN×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon+1.7
54-1UCONNNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.0
64-2NOVANOVAAttack errJordyn Hughes+1.6
75-2NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+1.3
86-2UCONNUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.8
96-3UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+1.1
106-4NOVANOVABlockedSydney Borowyblk Annika Veurink, Campbell McKinnon+1.7
117-4NOVAUCONN×3BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Jordyn Hughes, Sydney Borowy+1.3
128-4UCONNUCONN×3Attack errTaylor Lewis+1.9
139-4UCONNUCONN×3Attack errCat Young+1.8
149-5UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.0
159-6NOVANOVAAceVillanova+1.6
1610-6NOVAUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+1.4
1710-7UCONNNOVAAttack errMaja Daca+1.1
1810-8NOVANOVABad setAudrey Jensen+1.8
1911-8NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.5
2011-9UCONNNOVA×3Serve errUConn+1.2
2111-10NOVANOVA×3BlockedMaja Dacablk Loren Winn, Reagan McGivern+2.0
2211-11NOVANOVA×3Attack errCourtney Grayson+2.0
2312-11NOVAUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+1.5
2412-12UCONNNOVA×6KillCat Youngset Selah O'Connor+1.4
2512-13NOVANOVA×6Attack errSydney Borowy+2.0
2612-14NOVANOVA×6Attack errSydney Borowy+1.9
2712-15NOVANOVA×6KillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+1.6
2812-16NOVANOVA×6AceVillanovaaced Helena Einarsdottir+1.3
2912-17NOVANOVA×6KillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+0.9
3013-17NOVAUCONNBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Courtney Grayson, Audrey Jensen+0.5
3113-18UCONNNOVA×3KillLoren Winnset Loren Winn+0.6
3213-19NOVANOVA×3AceVillanovaaced Maja Daca+0.6
3313-20NOVANOVA×3Attack errSydney Borowy+0.3
3414-20NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.1
3515-20UCONNUCONNBlockedLoren Winnblk Sydney Borowy, Jordyn Hughes+0.3
3615-21UCONNNOVAKillLoren Winnset Selah O'Connor+0.3
3716-21NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+0.2
3816-22UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3916-23NOVANOVABlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Annika Veurink, Cat Young+0.2
4017-23NOVAUCONN×3KillOlivia Pasternakset Audrey Jensen·
4118-23UCONNUCONN×3Attack errCat Young+0.1
4219-23UCONNUCONN×3BlockedTaylor Lewisblk Olivia Pasternak+0.3
4319-24UCONNNOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
4419-25NOVANOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
Set 3
10-1UCONNNOVA×3Bad setAudrey Jensen+0.5
20-2NOVANOVA×3Attack errSydney Borowy+0.7
30-3NOVANOVA×3Attack errCourtney Grayson+0.6
41-3NOVAUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+0.4
52-3UCONNUCONNKillOlivia Pasternakset Audrey Jensen+0.7
62-4UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
73-4NOVAUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+0.5
84-4UCONNUCONNAttack errCampbell McKinnon+0.8
94-5UCONNNOVA×4KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
104-6NOVANOVA×4BlockedJordyn Hughesblk Annika Veurink, Taylor Lewis+0.8
114-7NOVANOVA×4AceVillanovaaced Hazuna Akishige+0.7
124-8NOVANOVA×4Attack errSydney Borowy+0.6
135-8NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+0.4
145-9UCONNNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.4
155-10NOVANOVA×3KillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
165-11NOVANOVA×3BlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Cat Young, Reagan McGivern+0.4
176-11NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.2
186-12UCONNNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
196-13NOVANOVAAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+0.3
207-13NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+0.1
218-13UCONNUCONNAttack errCat Young+0.3
228-14UCONNNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Selah O'Connor+0.2
239-14NOVAUCONNBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Audrey Jensen, Olivia Pasternak+0.2
2410-14UCONNUCONNAceUConn+0.4
2510-15UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+0.3
2611-15NOVAUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+0.3
2711-16UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+0.3
2812-16NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+0.3
2912-17UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3013-17NOVAUCONNBlockedCat Youngblk Sydney Borowy, Jordyn Hughes+0.3
3113-18UCONNNOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3214-18NOVAUCONNAttack errCat Young+0.2
3314-19UCONNNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3414-20NOVANOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
3515-20NOVAUCONNKillOlivia Pasternakset Hazuna Akishige+0.1
3615-21UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+0.2
3716-21NOVAUCONNServe errVillanova+0.1
3817-21UCONNUCONNKillCourtney Grayson+0.3
3917-22UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+0.3
4018-22NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.1
4118-23UCONNNOVAServe errUConn+0.2
4219-23NOVAUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Hazuna Akishige+0.1
4319-24UCONNNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
4419-25NOVANOVABlockedSydney Borowyblk Cat Young, Annika Veurink+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UConn first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).