FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeOVC

Valparaiso def. Tennessee St. 3–0

(25-15, 25-19, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
VALPO	25	25	25	3
TENNST	15	19	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENNST above 50 · VALPO below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Tennessee St. — set 1, VALPO 6-7 TENNST. Kill by Gabriella Blevins (set by Triniti Jackson). TENNST win probability 0% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

VALPO 99.7%0.3% TENNST

Valparaiso wins

3-0

83.9%

3-1

14.3%

3-2

1.5%

Tennessee St. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.2%

VALPO break %: 53.1% vs this opp
TENNST break %: 31.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gabriella BlevinsKill+0.1%
Kill by Gabriella Blevins (set by Triniti Jackson)
Set 1 · VALPO 6-7 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
02
Triniti JacksonAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Triniti Jackson
Set 1 · VALPO 8-7 TENNST · VALPO 100% → 100%
03
Wiktoria JakubikKill+0.1%
Kill by Wiktoria Jakubik (set by Triniti Jackson)
Set 2 · VALPO 13-13 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
04
Jordyn GoveAttack error+0.1%
Jordyn Gove stuffed by Gabriella Blevins
Set 1 · VALPO 6-6 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
05
Jordyn GoveKill+0.1%
Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Mia McCall)
Set 1 · VALPO 7-7 TENNST · VALPO 100% → 100%
06
VALPO serverAce+0.1%
Valparaiso ace on Sydney Robinson
Set 1 · VALPO 9-7 TENNST · VALPO 100% → 100%
07
VALPO serverAce+0.0%
Valparaiso ace on Sydni Poston
Set 2 · VALPO 15-13 TENNST · VALPO 100% → 100%
08
TENNST serverService error+0.0%
Tennessee St. service error
Set 2 · VALPO 14-13 TENNST · VALPO 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Valparaisoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Maddie SteeleMB	3	5	3	15	.133	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
27Jessica PickettMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
4Jordyn GoveOH	2	8	1	20	.350	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	8
14Keira LucasOH	2	4	2	12	.167	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	4
6Mia McCallS	2	3	1	8	.250	6	0	1	5	0	0	0	3
18Maddie KmetzS	2	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
21Sarah PippinOH	3	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
31Mia LibertiDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	1	6	1	0	0	2
3Lindley MartinDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
11Maggie UhwatOH	2	5	2	15	.200	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
17Danica GochDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	3	0	7	0	0	0	3
10Ava HelmingOH	2	1	2	12	-.083	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
2Olivia WagnerS	2	1	0	1	1.000	11	1	1	1	0	0	0	2
1Rylee BumgardnerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
7Mara ThomasS	1	1	0	1	1.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		36	12	100	.240	34	8	9	45	2	2	1	75

Tennessee St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Wiktoria JakubikOH	3	7	6	26	.038	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	8
13Gabriella BlevinsMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
1Carsyn StansberryOH	3	5	3	13	.154	0	1	4	6	0	0	0	0	6
8Melae LacyOH	3	5	2	22	.136	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
16Sydney RobinsonMB	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	3	9	4	0	0	0	5
15Triniti JacksonS	3	1	2	10	-.100	26	1	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
4Jordan ImperialL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	12	2	0	0	0	0
3Sydni PostonL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	2	0	1	9	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	18	98	.102	28	2	11	46	8	2	2	3	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 VALPO · TENNST 3

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 5 VALPOTENNST 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 3 VALPOTENNST 2

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 VALPOTENNST 2

Bars above the line = Tennessee St. leads, below = Valparaiso leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Valparaiso

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	45%5/11
2	80%8/10	33%4/12
3	75%6/8	63%10/16
4	60%6/10	50%6/12
5	67%6/9	14%1/7
6	100%6/6	60%9/15
All	75%40/53	48%35/73

Tennessee St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	13%1/8
2	47%7/15	20%2/10
3	55%6/11	13%1/8
4	60%6/10	45%5/11
5	38%6/16	40%4/10
6	63%5/8	0%0/6
All	52%38/73	25%13/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	VALPO-TENNST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TENNST	VALPO×3	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
2	2-0	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
3	3-0	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Keira Lucas	set Mia Liberti	+0.0
4	3-1	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
5	4-1	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Keira Lucas	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
6	4-2	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
7	5-2	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Mia McCall	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
8	5-3	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
9	5-4	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Lindley Martin	+0.0
10	6-4	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
11	6-5	VALPO	TENNST×3	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
12	6-6	TENNST	TENNST×3	Attack err	Jordyn Gove	blk Gabriella Blevins	+0.1
13	6-7	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
14	7-7	TENNST	VALPO×4	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.1
15	8-7	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Triniti Jackson		+0.1
16	9-7	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.1
17	10-7	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Team	+0.0
18	10-8	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
19	11-8	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia Liberti	+0.0
20	12-8	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
21	12-9	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
22	13-9	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
23	13-10	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.0
24	14-10	TENNST	VALPO×3	Kill	Mia McCall	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
25	15-10	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
26	16-10	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Keira Lucas	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
27	16-11	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
28	17-11	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
29	17-12	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
30	17-13	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
31	18-13	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Keira Lucas	set Mia Liberti	+0.0
32	18-14	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
33	19-14	TENNST	VALPO×5	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.0
34	20-14	VALPO	VALPO×5	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.0
35	21-14	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Triniti Jackson		+0.0
36	22-14	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Melae Lacy	blk Maddie Steele, Sarah Pippin	+0.0
37	23-14	VALPO	VALPO×5	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
38	23-15	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
39	24-15	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia Liberti	+0.0
40	25-15	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele		+0.0
2	1-1	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.0
3	2-1	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Mia McCall	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
4	2-2	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
5	3-2	TENNST	VALPO	Attack err	Sydni Poston		+0.0
6	4-2	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
7	4-3	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
8	4-4	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Triniti Jackson	set Sydni Poston	+0.0
9	5-4	TENNST	VALPO×3	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
10	6-4	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
11	7-4	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia McCall	+0.0
12	7-5	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
13	7-6	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Keira Lucas		+0.0
14	8-6	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
15	8-7	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
16	9-7	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
17	9-8	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
18	10-8	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mia McCall	+0.0
19	11-8	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.0
20	11-9	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.0
21	11-10	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Keira Lucas		+0.0
22	12-10	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
23	12-11	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
24	13-11	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
25	13-12	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
26	13-13	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
27	14-13	TENNST	VALPO×3	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
28	15-13	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydni Poston	+0.0
29	16-13	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Keira Lucas		+0.0
30	16-14	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
31	17-14	TENNST	VALPO	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
32	18-14	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
33	18-15	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Jessica Pickett		+0.0
34	19-15	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Olivia Wagner	set Jordyn Gove	+0.0
35	19-16	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
36	20-16	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
37	20-17	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
38	21-17	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
39	22-17	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
40	22-18	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
41	22-19	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Mia McCall		+0.0
42	23-19	TENNST	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.0
43	24-19	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.0
44	25-19	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
2	1-1	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
3	2-1	TENNST	VALPO×4	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
4	3-1	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.0
5	4-1	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
6	5-1	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.0
7	5-2	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Sydni Poston	+0.0
8	6-2	TENNST	VALPO×3	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
9	7-2	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
10	8-2	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
11	8-3	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
12	8-4	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.0
13	9-4	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
14	9-5	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
15	10-5	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
16	11-5	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
17	11-6	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
18	12-6	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
19	13-6	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.0
20	13-7	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
21	13-8	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Mia Liberti	+0.0
22	14-8	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
23	14-9	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
24	15-9	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+0.0
25	15-10	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
26	16-10	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Mara Thomas	+0.0
27	16-11	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Maddie Steele	blk Wiktoria Jakubik	+0.0
28	17-11	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
29	17-12	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
30	17-13	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
31	18-13	TENNST	VALPO	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
32	19-13	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
33	19-14	VALPO	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
34	20-14	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
35	20-15	VALPO	TENNST	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Triniti Jackson, Gabriella Blevins	+0.0
36	21-15	TENNST	VALPO	Kill	Mara Thomas	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
37	22-15	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Gabriella Blevins		+0.0
38	22-16	VALPO	TENNST	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
39	22-17	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.0
40	23-17	TENNST	VALPO×3	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
41	24-17	VALPO	VALPO×3	Bad set	Sydni Poston		+0.0
42	25-17	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Valparaiso first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.