FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeMVC

Cincinnati def. Valparaiso 3–0

(25-21, 25-13, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CINCY	25	25	26	3
VALPO	21	13	24	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

VALPO above 50 · CINCY below

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Cincinnati — set 3, CINCY 26-24 VALPO. Attack error by Sarah Pippin. VALPO win probability 1% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CINCY 91.0%9.0% VALPO

Cincinnati wins

3-0

46.3%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

13.3%

Valparaiso wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.7%

3-2

5.1%

CINCY break %: 47.8% vs this opp
VALPO break %: 37.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sarah PippinAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Sarah Pippin
Set 3 · CINCY 26-24 VALPO · CINCY 99% → 100%
02
Izzy BusignaniKill+1.1%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · CINCY 24-23 VALPO · CINCY 98% → 99%
03
Jordyn GoveKill+1.1%
Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Olivia Wagner)
Set 3 · CINCY 24-24 VALPO · VALPO 1% → 2%
04
Nina ScruccaKill+1.1%
Kill by Nina Scrucca (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · CINCY 25-24 VALPO · CINCY 98% → 99%
05
Andrea SimovskiAttack error+0.9%
Andrea Simovski stuffed by Ava Helming & Maddie Steele
Set 3 · CINCY 21-21 VALPO · VALPO 1% → 2%
06
Maggie UhwatKill+0.9%
Kill by Maggie Uhwat (set by Olivia Wagner)
Set 3 · CINCY 23-23 VALPO · VALPO 1% → 2%
07
Izzy BusignaniKill+0.9%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Ava Ledebuhr)
Set 3 · CINCY 23-22 VALPO · CINCY 98% → 99%
08
Maggie UhwatAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Maggie Uhwat
Set 1 · CINCY 2-0 VALPO · CINCY 92% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cincinnatiaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Izzy BusignaniOH	3	13	5	31	.258	0	0	1	8	0	2	1	14
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	9	2	13	.538	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	10
6Kate LijicS	3	1	2	5	-.200	42	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	1.5
2Sydney NolanOH	2	8	2	16	.375	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	10
8Ligia WilliamsOH	2	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Audrey RomeMB	2	2	1	6	.167	0	1	0	3	1	1	0.5	3.5
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	2	2	1	6	.167	0	1	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Lilian EntenmannMB	2	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
7Andrea SimovskiOH	1	5	4	12	.083	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5
12Malayna BoylesOH	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		48	17	105	.295	45	6	4	45	3	6	3	76

Valparaisohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Maggie UhwatOH	3	12	3	34	.265	0	2	0	4	1	1	0.5	14.5
21Sarah PippinOH	3	6	7	19	-.053	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
4Jordyn GoveOH	3	6	1	22	.227	1	0	0	8	2	0	0	6
27Jessica PickettMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Maddie SteeleMB	3	1	1	7	.000	1	0	1	2	0	3	1.5	2.5
18Maddie KmetzS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
10Ava HelmingOH	3	5	4	15	.067	1	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
7Mara ThomasS	3	1	0	2	.500	12	1	1	4	0	0	0	2
17Danica GochDS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
2Olivia WagnerS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
1Rylee BumgardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
31Mia LibertiDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Mia McCallS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	17	107	.159	33	3	5	35	6	8	4	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 CINCY · VALPO 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 6 CINCYVALPO 3

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 5 CINCYVALPO 3

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 5 CINCYVALPO 4

Bars above the line = Valparaiso leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%7/7	38%3/8
2	88%7/8	53%8/15
3	50%7/14	53%8/15
4	58%7/12	46%6/13
5	58%7/12	56%9/16
6	86%6/7	14%1/7
All	68%41/60	47%35/74

Valparaiso

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	0%0/6
2	41%7/17	13%1/8
3	88%7/8	50%7/14
4	44%7/16	42%5/12
5	58%7/12	30%3/10
6	57%4/7	30%3/10
All	53%39/74	32%19/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	CINCY-VALPO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
2	2-0	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.8
3	2-1	CINCY	VALPO	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.6
4	3-1	VALPO	CINCY×6	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
5	4-1	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic	+0.7
6	5-1	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.6
7	6-1	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+0.5
8	7-1	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.4
9	8-1	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Nina Scrucca	+0.3
10	8-2	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.2
11	9-2	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
12	10-2	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.2
13	10-3	CINCY	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.1
14	10-4	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
15	10-5	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.3
16	11-5	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
17	11-6	CINCY	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mara Thomas	+0.3
18	11-7	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Team	+0.5
19	11-8	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.7
20	12-8	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
21	12-9	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
22	13-9	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
23	14-9	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
24	14-10	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+0.4
25	15-10	VALPO	CINCY×6	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
26	16-10	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Audrey Rome		+0.4
27	17-10	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
28	18-10	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+0.1
29	19-10	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+0.1
30	20-10	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
31	20-11	CINCY	VALPO	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
32	20-12	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Sarah Pippin, Jessica Pickett	+0.0
33	21-12	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
34	21-13	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
35	21-14	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Maddie Steele	+0.0
36	22-14	VALPO	CINCY	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.1
37	22-15	CINCY	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Maddie Kmetz	+0.0
38	22-16	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Audrey Rome		+0.1
39	22-17	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Audrey Rome	+0.1
40	23-17	VALPO	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.2
41	23-18	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
42	23-19	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.2
43	24-19	VALPO	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.3
44	24-20	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.1
45	24-21	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
46	25-21	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
Set 2
1	1-0	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
2	1-1	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+0.5
3	2-1	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
4	3-1	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Jessica Pickett		+0.6
5	3-2	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.4
6	4-2	VALPO	CINCY	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.4
7	4-3	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
8	5-3	VALPO	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
9	6-3	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
10	7-3	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
11	8-3	CINCY	CINCY×5	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+0.3
12	9-3	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+0.3
13	9-4	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Kate Lijic		+0.2
14	10-4	VALPO	CINCY×5	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
15	11-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Ace	CINCY server	aced Danica Goch	+0.2
16	12-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Sarah Pippin	blk Ligia Williams, Izzy Busignani	+0.1
17	13-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.1
18	14-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
19	14-5	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
20	15-5	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
21	15-6	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
22	16-6	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
23	16-7	CINCY	VALPO	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
24	17-7	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
25	18-7	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.0
26	18-8	CINCY	VALPO	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
27	19-8	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
28	19-9	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Mara Thomas	set Danica Goch	+0.0
29	20-9	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
30	21-9	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
31	21-10	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
32	22-10	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
33	23-10	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Ava Ledebuhr	+0.0
34	23-11	CINCY	VALPO×3	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Jordyn Gove	+0.0
35	23-12	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.0
36	23-13	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Maddie Steele	+0.0
37	24-13	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
38	25-13	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
2	1-1	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
3	2-1	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
4	2-2	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+0.2
5	2-3	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Andrea Simovski	blk Ava Helming, Maddie Steele	+0.4
6	3-3	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
7	3-4	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Danica Goch	+0.3
8	4-4	VALPO	CINCY×5	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
9	5-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+0.3
10	6-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.3
11	7-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Ace	CINCY server	aced Maggie Uhwat	+0.3
12	8-4	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
13	8-5	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Danica Goch	+0.2
14	9-5	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
15	9-6	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
16	10-6	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
17	10-7	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
18	11-7	VALPO	CINCY	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.2
19	11-8	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
20	12-8	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
21	12-9	CINCY	VALPO×3	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
22	12-10	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.3
23	12-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Tatjana Simeunovic	blk Maggie Uhwat, Maddie Steele	+0.4
24	13-11	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Malayna Boyles	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
25	13-12	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.3
26	13-13	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Kate Lijic		+0.5
27	14-13	VALPO	CINCY	Attack err	Sarah Pippin	blk Tatjana Simeunovic, Izzy Busignani	+0.4
28	14-14	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.4
29	15-14	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
30	15-15	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.4
31	16-15	VALPO	CINCY	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.4
32	16-16	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Olivia Wagner	+0.5
33	17-16	VALPO	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.4
34	17-17	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
35	18-17	VALPO	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
36	19-17	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
37	20-17	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
38	21-17	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski		+0.3
39	21-18	CINCY	VALPO×4	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
40	21-19	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+0.4
41	21-20	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Ava Helming	+0.6
42	21-21	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Andrea Simovski	blk Ava Helming, Maddie Steele	+0.9
43	22-21	VALPO	CINCY	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.7
44	22-22	CINCY	VALPO	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.8
45	23-22	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Ava Ledebuhr	+0.9
46	23-23	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.9
47	24-23	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
48	24-24	CINCY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.1
49	25-24	VALPO	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
50	26-24	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+1.2

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.