Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026

Valparaiso def. Canisius 3–1

Valparaiso won at Canisius 3-1 (25-14, 13-25, 25-17, 25-13) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026. Valparaiso's Jordyn Gove led with 20 kills, and Rylee Bumgardner added 18 digs.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
VALPO251325253
CANISI142517131

Win probability

Canisius above 50 · Valparaiso below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.0% CANISIrally 157 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.0% to Canisius — set 3, VALPO 3-5 CANISI. Canisius ace on Rylee Bumgardner. CANISI win probability 12% → 14%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

VALPO 95.4%4.6% CANISI

Valparaiso wins

3-0
56.5%
3-1
29.4%
3-2
9.5%

Canisius wins

3-0
0.5%
3-1
1.3%
3-2
2.8%
VALPO break %
50.2% vs this opp
CANISI break %
37.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    CanisiusAce+2.0%

    Canisius ace on Rylee Bumgardner

    Set 3 · VALPO 3-5 CANISI · CANISI 12% → 14%

  2. 02
    Emma IsroffAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Emma Isroff

    Set 3 · VALPO 5-5 CANISI · VALPO 88% → 89%

  3. 03
    CanisiusAce+1.7%

    Canisius ace

    Set 3 · VALPO 2-3 CANISI · CANISI 10% → 12%

  4. 04
    Jordyn GoveKill+1.6%

    Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Olivia Wagner)

    Set 3 · VALPO 7-6 CANISI · VALPO 89% → 91%

  5. 05

    Jordyn Gove stuffed by Mckenna Corcoran & Emma Isroff

    Set 3 · VALPO 0-1 CANISI · CANISI 10% → 11%

  6. 06
    Emily HelmersKill+1.5%

    Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)

    Set 3 · VALPO 5-6 CANISI · CANISI 11% → 12%

  7. 07
    CanisiusAce+1.5%

    Canisius ace on Jordyn Gove

    Set 3 · VALPO 9-8 CANISI · CANISI 8% → 9%

  8. 08
    ValparaisoService error+1.4%

    Valparaiso service error

    Set 3 · VALPO 3-4 CANISI · CANISI 10% → 12%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420541.3660009302121
411121.47600020132.513.5
49729.06911090010.510.5
45119.211051101010.510.5
47112.500101200218
4001.000270110010.50.5
41011.000800100001
4000–010200001
4000–3111820001
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–201000000
4000–301100000
4000–000100000
4000–000000000
Team totals5315124.3064586567110688
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411428.2500232100013
49327.2220016002110
45412.083010001439
45016.31321260052.58.5
4317.28610020031.54.5
4002.0002210700001
46318.167100200006
4000–0211910002
4003.000000020000
4000–1000300000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals3915113.2123677478114869

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 VALPO · CANISI 5

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 5 VALPOCANISI 2

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 VALPOCANISI 5

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 5 VALPOCANISI 3

Set 4

25-13

Longest run 7 VALPOCANISI 2

Bars above the line = Canisius leads, below = Valparaiso leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Valparaiso

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%4/10
0%0/3
2
36%4/11
20%1/5
3
80%4/5
20%1/5
4
100%4/4
43%3/7
5
50%4/8
60%6/10
6
75%3/4
50%4/8
All
55%23/42
39%15/38

Canisius

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%4/5
40%2/5
2
100%4/4
67%8/12
3
50%4/8
56%5/9
4
44%4/9
0%0/4
5
44%4/9
20%1/5
6
100%3/3
43%3/7
All
61%23/38
45%19/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

157 rallies

#VALPO-CANISISrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CANISIVALPOBlockedEmma Isroffblk Maddie Steele, Maggie Uhwat+0.4
22-0VALPO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
32-1VALPOCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.4
43-1CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.4
53-2VALPOCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.4
63-3CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Maggie Uhwat+0.6
74-3CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Mia Mccall+0.4
84-4VALPOCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.5
95-4CANISIVALPO×4KillMia Mccallset Rylee Bumgardner+0.5
106-4VALPOVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Mia Mccall+0.5
117-4VALPOVALPO×4Attack errHannah Kos+0.4
128-4VALPOVALPO×4Attack errEmily Helmers+0.4
138-5VALPOCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+0.3
149-5CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia Mccall+0.3
159-6VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Anna Rich+0.3
169-7CANISICANISIKillAlli Farmerset Mckenna Corcoran+0.5
1710-7CANISIVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+0.4
1810-8VALPOCANISIKillHannah Kos+0.4
1910-9CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Rylee Bumgardner+0.7
2011-9CANISIVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.5
2112-9VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Ava Helming+0.5
2213-9VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaiso+0.4
2313-10VALPOCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.3
2414-10CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2514-11VALPOCANISIKillMckenna Corcoran+0.3
2615-11CANISIVALPO×5KillMaggie Uhwatset Mia Mccall+0.3
2716-11VALPOVALPO×5KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2817-11VALPOVALPO×5KillJordyn Goveset Mia Mccall+0.2
2918-11VALPOVALPO×5AceValparaisoaced Madison Cowan+0.1
3019-11VALPOVALPO×5KillJessica Pickett+0.1
3119-12VALPOCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt·
3220-12CANISIVALPO×3Attack errEmily Helmersset Julia Lenik·
3321-12VALPOVALPO×3Attack errHannah Kos·
3422-12VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Rylee Bumgardner·
3522-13VALPOCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich·
3623-13CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius·
3724-13VALPOVALPOAttack errAlli Farmer·
3824-14VALPOCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich·
3925-14CANISIVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner·
Set 2
10-1VALPOCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.3
20-2CANISICANISIBlockedAva Helmingblk Mckenna Corcoran, Emma Isroff+0.5
31-2CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Maddie Kmetz+0.3
41-3VALPOCANISI×4KillEmma Isroff+0.4
51-4CANISICANISI×4BlockedAva Helmingblk Emily Helmers, Julia Lenik+0.6
61-5CANISICANISI×4BlockedMaddie Steeleblk Emily Helmers, Julia Lenik+0.6
71-6CANISICANISI×4KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.7
82-6CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.4
92-7VALPOCANISIBlockedAva Helmingblk Emily Helmers, Julia Lenik+0.6
103-7CANISIVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Maddie Kmetz+0.4
113-8VALPOCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+0.6
124-8CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Mara Thomas+0.4
134-9VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Hannah Kos+0.6
144-10CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Jordyn Gove+0.7
155-10CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mara Thomas+0.4
165-11VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmer+0.6
176-11CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mara Thomas+0.4
186-12VALPOCANISI×5Serve errValparaiso+0.6
196-13CANISICANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.7
206-14CANISICANISI×5KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.6
216-15CANISICANISI×5Attack errAva Helming+0.5
226-16CANISICANISI×5AceCanisiusaced Jordyn Gove+0.4
237-16CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.2
247-17VALPOCANISIKillMckenna Corcoranset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.3
257-18CANISICANISIKillEmma Isroff+0.2
268-18CANISIVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Mia Mccall+0.1
279-18VALPOVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Mia Mccall+0.2
289-19VALPOCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.2
2910-19CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickett+0.1
3010-20VALPOCANISIServe errValparaiso+0.2
3111-20CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.1
3212-20VALPOVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Julia Lenik+0.1
3312-21VALPOCANISI×3KillAlli Farmerset Anna Rich+0.2
3412-22CANISICANISI×3Attack errJordyn Gove+0.1
3512-23CANISICANISI×3KillAlli Farmerset Julia Lenik+0.1
3613-23CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Mia Mccall·
3713-24VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Anna Rich·
3813-25CANISICANISIKillMckenna Corcoran·
Set 3
10-1CANISICANISIBlockedJordyn Goveblk Mckenna Corcoran, Emma Isroff+1.5
21-1CANISIVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.1
32-1VALPOVALPOKillAva Helmingset Rylee Bumgardner+1.3
42-2VALPOCANISIBad setOlivia Wagner+1.1
52-3CANISICANISIAceCanisius+1.7
63-3CANISIVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.2
73-4VALPOCANISIServe errValparaiso+1.4
83-5CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Rylee Bumgardner+2.0
94-5CANISIVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.4
105-5VALPOVALPOAttack errEmma Isroff+1.7
115-6VALPOCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.5
126-6CANISIVALPO×4KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.3
137-6VALPOVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.6
148-6VALPOVALPO×4AceValparaisoaced Madison Cowan+1.3
159-6VALPOVALPO×4BlockedEmily Helmersblk Jessica Pickett, Jordyn Gove+1.1
169-7VALPOCANISIServe errValparaiso+0.9
179-8CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Jordyn Gove+1.5
1810-8CANISIVALPO×5KillJessica Pickett+1.1
1911-8VALPOVALPO×5KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.2
2012-8VALPOVALPO×5KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.9
2113-8VALPOVALPO×5AceValparaiso+0.7
2214-8VALPOVALPO×5KillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+0.5
2314-9VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Julia Lenik+0.3
2415-9CANISIVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+0.4
2515-10VALPOCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+0.3
2616-10CANISIVALPOBad setMckenna Corcoran+0.4
2716-11VALPOCANISI×3Attack errMaggie Uhwatset Ava Helming+0.3
2816-12CANISICANISI×3BlockedAva Helmingblk Mckenna Corcoran, Julia Lenik+0.6
2916-13CANISICANISI×3KillJulia Lenik+1.0
3017-13CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.9
3117-14VALPOCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.8
3218-14CANISIVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Brenda Reynaga+0.9
3319-14VALPOVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.8
3420-14VALPOVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.5
3520-15VALPOCANISIAttack errJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.2
3621-15CANISIVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.3
3722-15VALPOVALPO×3Attack errEmily Helmers+0.2
3823-15VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Gove+0.1
3923-16VALPOCANISIBlockedJessica Pickettblk Emily Helmers, Julia Lenik·
4024-16CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner·
4124-17VALPOCANISIAttack errAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner·
4225-17CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner·
Set 4
11-0VALPOVALPO×7BlockedAlli Farmerblk Jessica Pickett, Olivia Wagner+0.9
22-0VALPOVALPO×7KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.7
33-0VALPOVALPO×7Attack errAlli Farmer+0.6
44-0VALPO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
55-0VALPOVALPO×7AceValparaisoaced Alli Farmer+0.4
66-0VALPOVALPO×7AceValparaiso+0.3
77-0VALPO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
87-1VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.2
98-1CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.2
108-2VALPOCANISIKillHannah Kosset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.2
118-3CANISICANISIAttack errJordyn Gove+0.3
129-3CANISIVALPOAttack errHannah Kosset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.2
139-4VALPOCANISIServe errValparaiso+0.2
149-5CANISICANISIKillHannah Kosset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.4
1510-5CANISIVALPOServe errCanisius+0.3
1610-6VALPOCANISIKillHannah Kosset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.3
1711-6CANISIVALPOKillAva Helmingset Maddie Steele+0.4
1811-7VALPOCANISIBlockedJordyn Goveblk Emily Helmers+0.3
1912-7CANISIVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.4
2013-7VALPO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
2114-7VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaisoaced Brenda Reynaga+0.2
2214-8VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.1
2314-9CANISICANISIAttack errAva Helming+0.3
2415-9CANISIVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2516-9VALPOVALPOAceValparaiso+0.2
2616-10VALPOCANISIKillAlli Farmerset Kenslie Warmbrodt+0.1
2717-10CANISIVALPO×3BlockedMckenna Corcoranblk Jessica Pickett+0.2
2818-10VALPOVALPO×3BlockedEmma Isroffblk Maddie Steele, Jordyn Gove+0.1
2919-10VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.1
3019-11VALPOCANISIServe errValparaiso·
3120-11CANISIVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner·
3221-11VALPOVALPO×3KillMaddie Steele·
3322-11VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Gove·
3422-12VALPOCANISIBad setOlivia Wagner·
3523-12CANISIVALPOKillJordyn Gove·
3623-13VALPOCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Kenslie Warmbrodt·
3724-13CANISIVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner·
3825-13VALPOVALPOBlockedAlli Farmerblk Jessica Pickett, Ava Helming·

Score shown after each rally, Valparaiso first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).