New Mexico State vs Liberty Volleyball: Liberty Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Liberty 67.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Liberty beat visiting New Mexico St. 3-0 (25-16, 25-21, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Liberty's Jenna Otts led with 10 kills, and Alison Bierwagen added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 12:55 AM CT · final Oct 9

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NM ST	16	21	22	0
LIBRTY	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Liberty held New Mexico St. to .069 hitting.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.0 points, and New Mexico St.'s high was 42% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave Liberty 68% before first serve.

New Mexico St.Liberty

Break %+13.3 pts
36.750.0
On serve: 37/74 against 22/60 (New Mexico St. sideout 50.0%).
Hitting+.219
.069.288
Kills and errors: 41–11 vs 32–24.
Longest run+-1
65
Up 16–14 in the first set, Liberty scored 5 straight to make it 21–14. That set ended 25–16.

Liberty above 50New Mexico St. belowMax swing 3.0%

New Mexico St.Liberty

Aces: New Mexico St. 3·Liberty 4
Serve err: New Mexico St. 4·Liberty 10
Blocks: New Mexico St. 5·Liberty 71 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs: New Mexico St. 49·Liberty 52

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Liberty above 50 · New Mexico St. below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to Liberty — set 1, NM ST 11-12 LIBRTY. Attack error by Kate Sinclair. LIBRTY win probability 67% → 70%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NM ST 37.6%62.4% LIBRTY

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

8.0%

3-1

13.6%

3-2

16.0%

Liberty wins

3-0

18.5%

3-1

23.9%

3-2

20.0%

NM ST break %: 40.3% vs this opp
LIBRTY break %: 42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kate SinclairAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Kate Sinclair
Set 1 · NM ST 11-12 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 67% → 70%
02
Ashley HermanAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Ashley Herman
Set 1 · NM ST 11-11 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 64% → 67%
03
Katrina CatalanBad set+3.0%
Bad set by Katrina Catalan
Set 1 · NM ST 12-14 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 70% → 73%
04
Maggie LightheartKill+3.0%
Kill by Maggie Lightheart (set by Katrina Catalan)
Set 1 · NM ST 11-8 LIBRTY · NM ST 38% → 41%
05
Paige OvercashKill+2.9%
Kill by Paige Overcash (set by Melis Ural)
Set 1 · NM ST 11-10 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 61% → 64%
06
Paige OvercashKill+2.9%
Kill by Paige Overcash (set by Alison Bierwagen)
Set 3 · NM ST 21-22 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 92% → 95%
07
LibertyAce+2.8%
Liberty ace on Tess Fuqua
Set 1 · NM ST 13-16 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 73% → 76%
08
Tess FuquaAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Tess Fuqua
Set 3 · NM ST 21-23 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 95% → 98%

Box score

Official NCAA box

New Mexico St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Ashley HermanOH	3	7	3	18	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
0Tess FuquaOH	3	7	3	25	.160	1	0	0	13	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
11Jaelynn KohliOH	3	7	4	20	.150	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Maggie LightheartOH	3	5	5	30	.000	0	1	1	10	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Katrina CatalanS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
16Kate SinclairMB	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
21Lilli SaldivarOH	3	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	10	2	0	0	0	1
12Paige NelsonS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
77Zoe ZieglerOH	2	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
7Mia FoxMB	2	0	3	5	-.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Katie FunkMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
30Jacqueline CorcoranOH	1	0	3	4	-.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Bella CastroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	24	116	.069	31	3	4	49	4	1	8	5	59

Libertyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Jenna OttsOH	3	10	4	29	.207	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
2Carly O'BrienOH	3	9	0	18	.500	0	2	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
25Paige OvercashOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	10
0Laney DaniellMB	3	5	0	13	.385	1	0	3	4	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
24Layla CollinsMB	3	3	3	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
11Alison BierwagenS	3	0	0	3	.000	23	0	0	15	0	0	0	0	0
22Molly LittlefieldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	3	0	0	0	1
5Melis UralL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
3VB TrostOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Addison HartOH	2	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Charli MorrisS	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
16Charli CrowsonS	2	0	0	0	–	10	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
1Kayla O'BrienL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	11	104	.288	39	4	10	52	3	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

New Mexico St. vs Liberty

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 9, 2026New Mexico St. at Liberty · Liberty won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 10, 2026New Mexico St. at Liberty · New Mexico St. won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NM ST · LIBRTY 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 NM STLIBRTY 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 NM STLIBRTY 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 6 NM STLIBRTY 5

Bars above the line = Liberty leads, below = New Mexico St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

New Mexico St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	22%2/9
2	35%6/17	56%9/16
3	46%6/13	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	50%37/74	37%22/60

Liberty

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	42%5/12
2	75%6/8	54%7/13
3	55%6/11	65%11/17
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	75%6/8	33%3/9
All	63%38/60	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#	NM ST-LIBRTY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+1.7
2	2-0	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+2.5
3	3-0	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Jenna Otts		+2.5
4	3-1	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.6
5	4-1	LIBRTY	NM ST	Bad set	Alison Bierwagen		+1.8
6	5-1	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Molly Littlefield	+2.5
7	5-2	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.5
8	6-2	LIBRTY	NM ST	Bad set	Molly Littlefield		+1.8
9	6-3	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.5
10	6-4	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Carly O'Brien, Layla Collins	+2.4
11	7-4	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+1.9
12	7-5	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+1.7
13	7-6	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Ace	Liberty	aced Makayla Martinez	+2.6
14	8-6	LIBRTY	NM ST	Attack err	Layla Collins		+2.0
15	8-7	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Charli Crowson	+1.9
16	9-7	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+2.1
17	9-8	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Charli Crowson	+1.9
18	10-8	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez	+2.2
19	11-8	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+3.0
20	11-9	NM ST	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
21	11-10	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Melis Ural	+2.9
22	11-11	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Ashley Herman		+3.0
23	11-12	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Kate Sinclair		+3.0
24	12-12	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+2.2
25	12-13	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.2
26	12-14	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Bad set	Katrina Catalan		+3.0
27	13-14	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+2.0
28	13-15	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.2
29	13-16	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Ace	Liberty	aced Tess Fuqua	+2.8
30	14-16	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.7
31	14-17	NM ST	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Charli Crowson	+2.0
32	14-18	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Attack err	Mia Fox		+2.3
33	14-19	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Ace	Liberty	aced Tess Fuqua	+1.6
34	14-20	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran		+1.0
35	14-21	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran		+0.6
36	15-21	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+0.2
37	15-22	NM ST	LIBRTY×3	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Charli Crowson	+0.3
38	15-23	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×3	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran		+0.2
39	15-24	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×3	Blocked	Ashley Herman	blk Laney Daniell, Jenna Otts	·
40	16-24	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		·
41	16-25	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Charli Morris	set Laney Daniell	·
Set 2
1	0-1	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+1.3
2	0-2	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+1.8
3	1-2	LIBRTY	NM ST	Blocked	Paige Overcash	blk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli	+1.3
4	2-2	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+2.0
5	2-3	NM ST	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Melis Ural	+1.4
6	2-4	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+1.9
7	2-5	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.7
8	2-6	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Ace	Liberty	aced Makayla Martinez	+1.5
9	3-6	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+1.0
10	3-7	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.1
11	3-8	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Mia Fox	blk Layla Collins	+1.3
12	4-8	LIBRTY	NM ST	Attack err	Layla Collins		+0.8
13	5-8	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Paige Overcash		+1.4
14	5-9	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.1
15	6-9	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
16	6-10	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Charli Crowson	+1.2
17	7-10	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
18	7-11	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Layla Collins	set Charli Crowson	+1.2
19	8-11	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.1
20	8-12	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Charli Crowson	+1.2
21	9-12	LIBRTY	NM ST	Bad set	Melis Ural		+1.1
22	9-13	NM ST	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.2
23	9-14	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+1.4
24	9-15	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Blocked	Mia Fox	blk Laney Daniell, Paige Overcash	+1.1
25	9-16	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.7
26	10-16	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.4
27	11-16	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Paige Overcash	blk Zoe Ziegler, Maggie Lightheart	+0.7
28	12-16	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Molly Littlefield	+1.1
29	12-17	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.0
30	12-18	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien		+1.0
31	13-18	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Paige Nelson	+0.5
32	13-19	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Layla Collins	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.7
33	13-20	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Ashley Herman		+0.5
34	14-20	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+0.2
35	15-20	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+0.5
36	15-21	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Charli Crowson	+0.6
37	16-21	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+0.3
38	17-21	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+0.7
39	18-21	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Layla Collins	blk Ashley Herman	+1.3
40	18-22	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Charli Crowson	+1.4
41	18-23	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.0
42	19-23	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.3
43	20-23	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.8
44	21-23	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Zoe Ziegler	set Jaelynn Kohli	+1.7
45	21-24	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Charli Crowson	+2.2
46	21-25	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.1
Set 3
1	0-1	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Tess Fuqua	blk Jenna Otts	+1.1
2	1-1	LIBRTY	NM ST×6	Blocked	Jenna Otts	blk Tess Fuqua, Kate Sinclair	+0.8
3	2-1	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Kate Sinclair	set Katrina Catalan	+1.1
4	3-1	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+1.2
5	4-1	NM ST	NM ST×6	Attack err	Jenna Otts		+1.2
6	5-1	NM ST	NM ST×6	Blocked	Jenna Otts	blk Ashley Herman, Kate Sinclair	+1.2
7	6-1	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Tess Fuqua	+1.1
8	6-2	NM ST	LIBRTY	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Paige Overcash, Laney Daniell	+0.6
9	7-2	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Kate Sinclair	set Katrina Catalan	+0.8
10	7-3	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Carly O'Brien	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.6
11	8-3	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Serve err	Liberty		+0.8
12	9-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+1.0
13	10-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Katie Funk	set Paige Nelson	+0.8
14	10-4	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Melis Ural	+0.4
15	11-4	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+0.6
16	11-5	NM ST	LIBRTY	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+0.4
17	12-5	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+0.6
18	12-6	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.4
19	12-7	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Kayla O'Brien	+0.8
20	13-7	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+0.7
21	13-8	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.5
22	14-8	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.7
23	14-9	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.5
24	14-10	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Kate Sinclair		+0.9
25	15-10	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.9
26	15-11	NM ST	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.6
27	15-12	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Addison Hart	set Molly Littlefield	+1.1
28	15-13	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Attack err	Paige Overcash		+1.4
29	15-14	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Layla Collins	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.6
30	15-15	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Addison Hart		+1.7
31	16-15	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+1.3
32	17-15	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
33	17-16	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.2
34	17-17	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.9
35	18-17	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.5
36	19-17	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Molly Littlefield	+2.1
37	19-18	NM ST	LIBRTY	Blocked	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Addison Hart, Layla Collins	+1.3
38	20-18	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.6
39	20-19	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+1.4
40	21-19	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+1.8
41	21-20	NM ST	LIBRTY×4	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+1.4
42	21-21	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Zoe Ziegler		+2.6
43	21-22	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.9
44	21-23	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×4	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+2.6
45	22-23	LIBRTY	NM ST	Attack err	Paige Overcash		+1.3
46	22-24	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.1
47	22-25	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.6

Score shown after each rally, New Mexico St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Liberty def. New Mexico St. 3–0

Liberty held New Mexico St. to .069 hitting.