New Mexico State def. Liberty 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 10)

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Liberty 70.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Mexico St. won at Liberty 3-0 (25-23, 25-19, 25-13) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. New Mexico St.'s Jaelynn Kohli led with 11 kills, and Makayla Martinez added 16 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:45 PM CT · final Oct 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NM ST	25	25	25	3
LIBRTY	23	19	13	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Serve, receive, attack, block: New Mexico St. won all four.

No single rally moved win probability more than 7.4 points. Liberty peaked at 75% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Liberty went in at 71% by RallyIQ.

New Mexico St.Liberty

Break %+17.7 pts
49.331.6
Points won on own serve: 36 of 73 vs 18 of 57. Liberty sided out 50.7% of the time.
Hitting+.133
.314.181
Kills and errors: 44–11 vs 35–16.
Longest run+1
65
Up 8–6 in the third set, New Mexico St. scored 6 straight to make it 14–6. The set finished 25–13.

Liberty above 50New Mexico St. belowMax swing 7.4%

New Mexico St.Liberty

Aces: New Mexico St. 5·Liberty 3
Serve err: New Mexico St. 6·Liberty 8
Blocks: New Mexico St. 7·Liberty 63 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 10 BA
Digs: New Mexico St. 49·Liberty 44

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Liberty above 50 · New Mexico St. below

Biggest swing: 7.4% to New Mexico St. — set 1, NM ST 25-23 LIBRTY. Liberty service error. LIBRTY win probability 58% → 50%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NM ST 37.5%62.5% LIBRTY

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

7.9%

3-1

13.6%

3-2

16.0%

Liberty wins

3-0

18.6%

3-1

23.9%

3-2

20.0%

NM ST break %: 40.3% vs this opp
LIBRTY break %: 42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
LibertyService error+7.4%
Liberty service error
Set 1 · NM ST 25-23 LIBRTY · NM ST 42% → 50%
02
Addison HartAttack error+5.5%
Attack error by Addison Hart
Set 1 · NM ST 24-22 LIBRTY · NM ST 40% → 45%
03
New Mexico St.Ace+4.8%
New Mexico St. ace on Melis Ural
Set 2 · NM ST 16-14 LIBRTY · NM ST 56% → 61%
04
Lilli SaldivarKill+4.7%
Kill by Lilli Saldivar (set by Paige Nelson)
Set 1 · NM ST 23-20 LIBRTY · NM ST 42% → 46%
05
New Mexico St.Ace+4.6%
New Mexico St. ace
Set 2 · NM ST 17-14 LIBRTY · NM ST 61% → 65%
06
Addison Hart&Layla CollinsBlock+4.5%
Maggie Lightheart stuffed by Addison Hart & Layla Collins
Set 1 · NM ST 23-22 LIBRTY · LIBRTY 56% → 60%
07
Tess FuquaKill+4.4%
Kill by Tess Fuqua (set by Paige Nelson)
Set 1 · NM ST 19-17 LIBRTY · NM ST 34% → 39%
08
Mia FoxKill+4.4%
Kill by Mia Fox (set by Paige Nelson)
Set 2 · NM ST 14-13 LIBRTY · NM ST 51% → 56%

Box score

Official NCAA box

New Mexico St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Jaelynn KohliOH	3	11	0	20	.550	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
7Mia FoxMB	3	9	0	10	.900	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
0Tess FuquaOH	3	7	3	22	.182	0	2	3	6	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
2Maggie LightheartOH	3	6	5	24	.042	0	0	1	13	1	1	0	1	7
21Lilli SaldivarOH	3	3	1	14	.143	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	4
12Paige NelsonS	3	0	0	1	.000	25	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Ashley HermanOH	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	10
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	3	1	16	1	0	0	0	3
10Katrina CatalanS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
3Bella CastroL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
77Zoe ZieglerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	11	105	.314	44	5	6	49	3	3	8	7	75

Libertyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
25Paige OvercashOH	3	10	2	26	.308	0	1	2	10	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
8Jenna OttsOH	3	9	4	34	.147	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
24Layla CollinsMB	3	5	3	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
0Laney DaniellMB	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	1	5
1Kayla O'BrienL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	6	2	0	0	0	2
11Alison BierwagenS	3	0	0	1	.000	28	0	1	7	0	0	2	1	1
7Addison HartOH	3	7	4	18	.167	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
5Melis UralL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	15	1	0	0	0	0
22Molly LittlefieldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Charli CrowsonS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
13Keira RosenmarkleOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Addie FielderS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3VB TrostOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	16	105	.181	33	3	8	44	5	1	10	6	55

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

New Mexico St. vs Liberty

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 9, 2026New Mexico St. at Liberty · Liberty won 3-0Result →
Sat, Oct 10, 2026New Mexico St. at Liberty · New Mexico St. won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NM ST · LIBRTY 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 NM STLIBRTY 2

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 5 NM STLIBRTY 5

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 6 NM STLIBRTY 3

Bars above the line = Liberty leads, below = New Mexico St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

New Mexico St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%5/6	63%5/8
2	56%5/9	55%6/11
3	71%5/7	38%3/8
4	56%5/9	38%3/8
5	100%3/3	67%6/9
6	75%3/4	25%1/4
All	68%26/38	50%24/48

Liberty

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%5/11	17%1/6
2	63%5/8	44%4/9
3	63%5/8	29%2/7
4	33%3/9	44%4/9
5	75%3/4	0%0/3
6	38%3/8	25%1/4
All	50%24/48	32%12/38

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	NM ST-LIBRTY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.1
2	1-1	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+1.5
3	1-2	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.5
4	1-3	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Melis Ural	+2.0
5	2-3	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.4
6	3-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Bad set	Alison Bierwagen		+2.2
7	4-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Addison Hart	+2.4
8	4-4	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Molly Littlefield	+1.7
9	5-4	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+1.8
10	5-5	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.7
11	6-5	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.8
12	7-5	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+2.7
13	7-6	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
14	8-6	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+2.0
15	9-6	NM ST	NM ST	Blocked	Jenna Otts	blk Jaelynn Kohli	+2.8
16	9-7	NM ST	LIBRTY	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+1.7
17	10-7	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+2.1
18	10-8	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
19	11-8	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+2.1
20	12-8	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.8
21	12-9	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.6
22	12-10	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.6
23	13-10	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.2
24	13-11	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.9
25	13-12	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Lilli Saldivar	blk Layla Collins, Paige Overcash	+3.0
26	14-12	LIBRTY	NM ST	Attack err	Addison Hart		+2.4
27	15-12	NM ST	NM ST	Blocked	Layla Collins	blk Ashley Herman	+3.3
28	15-13	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.0
29	15-14	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Ace	Liberty	aced Makayla Martinez	+3.2
30	16-14	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+2.7
31	16-15	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.3
32	17-15	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+2.8
33	17-16	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.4
34	17-17	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Laney Daniell	+3.9
35	18-17	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Serve err	Liberty		+3.1
36	19-17	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+4.4
37	20-17	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Laney Daniell		+4.1
38	20-18	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.1
39	21-18	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+3.1
40	21-19	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.1
41	21-20	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+4.2
42	22-20	LIBRTY	NM ST	Bad set	Alison Bierwagen		+4.1
43	23-20	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Paige Nelson	+4.7
44	23-21	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
45	23-22	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Maggie Lightheart	blk Addison Hart, Layla Collins	+4.5
46	24-22	LIBRTY	NM ST	Attack err	Addison Hart		+5.5
47	24-23	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.9
48	25-23	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+7.4
Set 2
1	0-1	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.9
2	0-2	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.6
3	1-2	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
4	1-3	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Laney Daniell	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
5	2-3	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
6	3-3	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.9
7	3-4	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+2.1
8	4-4	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+2.1
9	4-5	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.1
10	5-5	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+2.2
11	5-6	NM ST	LIBRTY×5	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+2.2
12	5-7	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Blocked	Tess Fuqua	blk Alison Bierwagen, Layla Collins	+2.9
13	5-8	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Ace	Liberty	aced Maggie Lightheart	+2.7
14	5-9	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Ace	Liberty	aced Katrina Catalan	+2.3
15	5-10	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×5	Kill	Layla Collins	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.9
16	6-10	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.2
17	7-10	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Layla Collins		+2.1
18	7-11	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Layla Collins	set Melis Ural	+1.7
19	7-12	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Attack err	Ashley Herman		+2.0
20	8-12	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Katrina Catalan	+1.2
21	9-12	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+2.1
22	9-13	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.8
23	10-13	LIBRTY	NM ST×5	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez	+1.5
24	11-13	NM ST	NM ST×5	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+2.8
25	12-13	NM ST	NM ST×5	Attack err	Laney Daniell		+3.4
26	13-13	NM ST	NM ST×5	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+3.9
27	14-13	NM ST	NM ST×5	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+4.4
28	14-14	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+3.0
29	15-14	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+3.3
30	16-14	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Melis Ural	+4.8
31	17-14	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	New Mexico St.		+4.6
32	17-15	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.7
33	18-15	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+3.5
34	18-16	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.7
35	19-16	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+3.6
36	20-16	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Addison Hart		+4.2
37	20-17	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Alison Bierwagen	+2.0
38	21-17	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez	+3.1
39	21-18	NM ST	LIBRTY	Blocked	Tess Fuqua	blk Layla Collins, Alison Bierwagen	+1.9
40	22-18		NM ST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.0
41	22-19	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	+1.6
42	23-19	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.9
43	24-19	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
44	25-19	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	LIBRTY	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
2	2-0	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+2.6
3	3-0	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Kayla O'Brien	+2.7
4	4-0	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+2.6
5	4-1	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+1.6
6	4-2	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Kill	Paige Overcash	set Melis Ural	+2.5
7	5-2	LIBRTY	NM ST	Serve err	Liberty		+2.0
8	5-3	NM ST	LIBRTY	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+1.8
9	6-3	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.1
10	7-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Layla Collins	blk Lilli Saldivar, Ashley Herman	+2.8
11	8-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Blocked	Paige Overcash	blk Maggie Lightheart	+2.6
12	8-4	NM ST	LIBRTY×3	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Charli Crowson	+1.5
13	8-5	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×3	Kill	Layla Collins		+2.5
14	8-6	LIBRTY	LIBRTY×3	Kill	Layla Collins	set Charli Crowson	+2.7
15	9-6	LIBRTY	NM ST×6	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+2.2
16	10-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+3.0
17	11-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Blocked	Jenna Otts	blk Ashley Herman, Lilli Saldivar	+2.7
18	12-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Attack err	Jenna Otts		+2.3
19	13-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Attack err	Jenna Otts		+1.9
20	14-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+1.5
21	14-7	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Layla Collins	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.7
22	15-7	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Makayla Martinez	+1.0
23	15-8	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		+0.6
24	16-8	LIBRTY	NM ST×4	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
25	17-8	NM ST	NM ST×4	Blocked	Addison Hart	blk Jaelynn Kohli, Mia Fox	+0.9
26	18-8	NM ST	NM ST×4	Blocked	Paige Overcash	blk Tess Fuqua, Mia Fox	+0.5
27	19-8	NM ST	NM ST×4	Attack err	Laney Daniell		+0.3
28	19-9	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Addison Hart	set Alison Bierwagen	+0.1
29	20-9	LIBRTY	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
30	21-9	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.1
31	22-9	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	New Mexico St.	aced Kayla O'Brien	·
32	22-10	NM ST	LIBRTY	Serve err	New Mexico St.		·
33	23-10	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	·
34	23-11	NM ST	LIBRTY	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		·
35	24-11	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	·
36	24-12	NM ST	LIBRTY	Kill	Jenna Otts	set Alison Bierwagen	·
37	24-13	LIBRTY	LIBRTY	Blocked	Ashley Herman	blk Layla Collins, Jenna Otts	·
38	25-13	LIBRTY	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	·

Score shown after each rally, New Mexico St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

New Mexico St. def. Liberty 3–0

Serve, receive, attack, block: New Mexico St. won all four.