Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Southern Ill. def. Valparaiso 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Valparaiso 68.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern Ill. beat visiting Valparaiso 3-2 (15-25, 22-25, 26-24, 26-24, 15-5) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Southern Ill.'s Ella Swansiger led with 17 kills, and Jillian Shaneyfelt added 30 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set12345Sets
VALPO2525242452
SIU15222626153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Jillian Shaneyfelt dug 30 balls to keep Southern Ill. alive against Valparaiso.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Southern Ill.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had Valparaiso at 69% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Valparaiso 23–23 Southern Ill.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Southern Ill., enough to take the set 26–24 and level the match at 2–2.

    Southern Ill. 20% → 41%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Valparaiso 4–4 Southern Ill.

    From 4–4, Southern Ill. scored 3 straight to lead 7–4. The match swung to Southern Ill.

    Southern Ill. 44% → 72%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Valparaiso 5–7 Southern Ill.

    8 straight Southern Ill. points stretched a 7–5 lead to 15–5.

    Southern Ill. 66% → >99%

Southern Ill. above 50Valparaiso belowMax swing 11.4%

ValparaisoSouthern Ill.

Sideout %
Valparaiso 49.0·Southern Ill. 49.5
Break %
Valparaiso 50.5·Southern Ill. 51.0
Hitting
Valparaiso .150·Southern Ill. .131
Longest run
Valparaiso 5·Southern Ill. 9

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ill. above 50 · Valparaiso below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+11.4% SIUrally 207 · set 5

Biggest swing: 11.4% to Southern Ill. — set 4, VALPO 24-26 SIU. Southern Ill. ace on Rylee Bumgardner. SIU win probability 29% → 41%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

VALPO 63.1%36.9% SIU

Valparaiso wins

3-0
18.9%
3-1
24.2%
3-2
20.0%

Southern Ill. wins

3-0
7.7%
3-1
13.3%
3-2
15.9%
VALPO break %
45.2% vs this opp
SIU break %
42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Southern Ill.Ace+11.4%

    Southern Ill. ace on Rylee Bumgardner

    Set 4 · VALPO 24-26 SIU · SIU 29% → 41%

  2. 02

    Maggie Uhwat stuffed by McKenzie Moeller & Beatriz Piaia

    Set 4 · VALPO 24-25 SIU · SIU 18% → 29%

  3. 03

    Natalie Vance stuffed by Ava Helming & Maddie Steele

    Set 4 · VALPO 24-23 SIU · VALPO 80% → 90%

  4. 04
    Southern Ill.Ace+10.6%

    Southern Ill. ace on Rylee Bumgardner

    Set 5 · VALPO 4-6 SIU · SIU 52% → 62%

  5. 05

    Kill by McKenzie Moeller

    Set 5 · VALPO 4-7 SIU · SIU 62% → 72%

  6. 06
    Maggie UhwatAttack error+9.7%

    Attack error by Maggie Uhwat

    Set 5 · VALPO 3-4 SIU · SIU 41% → 51%

  7. 07
    Maddie SteeleAttack error+9.3%

    Attack error by Maddie Steele

    Set 5 · VALPO 5-9 SIU · SIU 74% → 84%

  8. 08
    ValparaisoService error+8.3%

    Valparaiso service error

    Set 5 · VALPO 5-8 SIU · SIU 66% → 74%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515950.120212160073.519.5
511426.2690001018516
510628.143632150010.513.5
511639.1280224100013
5316.3332903800425
5227.00020010052.54.5
5000–022100002
5000–4001060000
4011-1.000100500000
3000–013110001
2000–000100000
11011.00050010010.51.5
1112.000000000001
Team totals5430160.1504991464912614103
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517537.3240000004219
510321.33300230275.515.5
511737.108231103010.514.5
54826-.15400032010.54.5
5113.00000010132.53.5
5001.00022111100001
56528.036000000217
5000–3203000002
5000–1622500002
3000–010200001
2000–001100000
Team totals4929153.131439766931812104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 VALPO · SIU 9

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 5 VALPOSIU 5

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 VALPOSIU 4

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 VALPOSIU 5

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 5 VALPOSIU 9

Set 5

5-15

Longest run 1 VALPOSIU 8

Bars above the line = Southern Ill. leads, below = Valparaiso leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Valparaiso

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%8/24
50%6/12
2
57%8/14
43%6/14
3
54%7/13
60%12/20
4
70%7/10
46%6/13
5
50%6/12
22%2/9
6
27%4/15
55%6/11
All
45%40/88
48%38/79

Southern Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
54%7/13
2
53%8/15
65%15/23
3
44%7/16
30%3/10
4
50%7/14
46%6/13
5
78%7/9
36%4/11
6
33%4/12
72%13/18
All
52%41/79
55%48/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

207 rallies

#VALPO-SIUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SIUVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.6
22-0VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Gove+2.0
33-0VALPOVALPO×3Attack errAlexandria Arrington+1.9
43-1VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.4
54-1SIUVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.4
64-2VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.4
75-2SIUVALPOServe errSouthern Ill.+1.5
86-2VALPOVALPOKillOlivia Wagnerset Ava Helming+1.7
96-3VALPOSIUBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Valentina Zevallos, Beatriz Piaia+1.2
107-3SIUVALPOServe errSouthern Ill.+1.4
118-3VALPOVALPOAttack errValentina Zevallos+1.5
128-4VALPOSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Lillian Dempkey+1.0
139-4VALPO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
1410-4VALPOVALPOKillSarah Pippinset Rylee Bumgardner+1.3
1510-5VALPOSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Lillian Dempkey+0.8
1611-5SIUVALPO×5KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.0
1712-5VALPOVALPO×5KillJessica Pickett+1.0
1813-5VALPOVALPO×5AceValparaiso+0.7
1914-5VALPOVALPO×5BlockedNatalie Vanceblk Ava Helming, Jessica Pickett+0.5
2015-5VALPOVALPO×5BlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Ava Helming+0.3
2115-6VALPOSIU×5KillBeatriz Piaiaset Lillian Dempkey+0.2
2215-7SIUSIU×5AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+0.3
2315-8SIUSIU×5BlockedSarah Pippinblk Beatriz Piaia, Ella Swansiger+0.5
2415-9SIUSIU×5Attack errAva Helming+0.7
2515-10SIUSIU×5KillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+1.0
2616-10SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.9
2716-11VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.7
2817-11SIUVALPOAttack errElla Swansiger+0.9
2918-11VALPOVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.8
3018-12VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+0.4
3118-13SIUSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Olivia Wagner+0.8
3219-13SIUVALPO×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.9
3320-13VALPOVALPO×3Attack errElla Swansiger+0.7
3421-13VALPOVALPO×3BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Maddie Steele, Olivia Wagner+0.4
3521-14VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+0.1
3622-14SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.2
3723-14VALPOVALPOAttack errNatalie Vance+0.1
3823-15VALPOSIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset Lillian Dempkey·
3924-15SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner·
4025-15VALPOVALPOAceValparaiso·
Set 2
11-0VALPOVALPOAceValparaisoaced Alexandria Arrington+1.8
22-0VALPOVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.7
32-1VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+1.3
43-1SIUVALPO×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+1.3
54-1VALPOVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+1.6
65-1VALPOVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Ella McFarland+1.4
75-2VALPOSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+1.0
85-3SIUSIUAttack errAva Helming+1.5
96-3SIUVALPOServe errSouthern Ill.+1.3
106-4VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset McKenzie Moeller+1.2
116-5SIUSIUAttack errMaggie Uhwat+1.8
127-5SIUVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.4
137-6VALPOSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Lillian Dempkey+1.4
147-7SIUSIUBlockedMaddie Steeleblk Valentina Zevallos, Natalie Vance+2.1
158-7SIUVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Rylee Bumgardner+1.6
168-8VALPOSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+1.7
178-9SIUSIU×3AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+2.3
188-10SIUSIU×3Attack errAva Helming+2.4
199-10SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Jordyn Gove+1.7
2010-10VALPOVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Lillian Dempkey+2.3
2110-11VALPOSIU×3Serve errValparaiso+1.9
2210-12SIUSIU×3Bad setOlivia Wagner+2.6
2310-13SIUSIU×3KillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+2.6
2411-13SIUVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.7
2511-14VALPOSIU×4Serve errValparaiso+2.1
2611-15SIUSIU×4BlockedJordyn Goveblk Beatriz Piaia, Ella Swansiger+2.5
2711-16SIUSIU×4KillAlexandria Arrington+2.1
2811-17SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+1.7
2912-17SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.9
3012-18VALPOSIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset McKenzie Moeller+1.3
3113-18SIUVALPO×4KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.8
3214-18VALPOVALPO×4BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Jessica Pickett, Olivia Wagner+1.5
3315-18VALPOVALPO×4AceValparaisoaced McKenzie Moeller+2.0
3416-18VALPOVALPO×4KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+2.5
3516-19VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+2.5
3616-20SIUSIUAceSouthern Ill.+2.7
3717-20SIUVALPO×4KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+1.4
3818-20VALPOVALPO×4KillMaggie Uhwatset Jordyn Gove+2.6
3919-20VALPOVALPO×4AceValparaiso+3.3
4020-20VALPOVALPO×4BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Maddie Steele, Olivia Wagner+4.0
4120-21VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+3.5
4221-21SIUVALPOServe errSouthern Ill.+3.4
4321-22VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+4.0
4422-22SIUVALPO×4KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+3.8
4523-22VALPOVALPO×4KillAva Helmingset Maddie Steele+5.8
4624-22VALPOVALPO×4AceValparaiso+5.2
4725-22VALPOVALPO×4Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+2.8
Set 3
11-0SIUVALPOBlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Jessica Pickett, Ava Helming+0.8
21-1VALPOSIU×5KillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+0.8
31-2SIUSIU×5KillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.1
41-3SIUSIU×5BlockedJessica Pickettblk Beatriz Piaia+1.2
51-4SIUSIU×5Attack errJordyn Gove+1.2
61-5SIUSIU×5KillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.1
72-5SIUVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.8
82-6VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+0.9
93-6SIUVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Jordyn Gove+0.8
103-7VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+0.9
114-7SIUVALPOKillOlivia Wagnerset Maddie Steele+0.8
124-8VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+0.9
135-8SIUVALPOAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.8
145-9VALPOSIU×3KillNatalie Vanceset Lillian Dempkey+1.0
155-10SIUSIU×3KillBeatriz Piaia+1.1
165-11SIUSIU×3KillBeatriz Piaiaset Lillian Dempkey+1.0
176-11SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.6
187-11VALPOVALPOBlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Ava Helming, Jessica Pickett+1.0
197-12VALPOSIU×4KillBeatriz Piaiaset Lillian Dempkey+0.9
207-13SIUSIU×4Attack errAva Helming+1.0
217-14SIUSIU×4Attack errMaggie Uhwat+0.8
227-15SIUSIU×4KillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+0.6
238-15SIUVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+0.3
249-15VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+0.6
2510-15VALPOVALPO×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.7
2610-16VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+0.8
2711-16SIUVALPO×3BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Jessica Pickett, Mia McCall+0.5
2812-16VALPOVALPO×3BlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Jessica Pickett+0.9
2913-16VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaisoaced Alexandria Arrington+1.2
3013-17VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.2
3114-17SIUVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Jordyn Gove+0.9
3214-18VALPOSIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset Ella McFarland+1.2
3315-18SIUVALPOKillMia McCallset Rylee Bumgardner+0.9
3416-18VALPOVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+1.4
3516-19VALPOSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Lillian Dempkey+1.4
3617-19SIUVALPOAttack errNatalie Vance+1.1
3718-19VALPOVALPOBlockedNatalie Vanceblk Jordyn Gove, Maddie Steele+1.8
3818-20VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+1.7
3919-20SIUVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+1.5
4020-20VALPOVALPO×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+2.3
4121-20VALPOVALPO×3Bad setLillian Dempkey+2.5
4221-21VALPOSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+1.9
4321-22SIUSIU×3BlockedJordyn Goveblk Ella Swansiger, Beatriz Piaia+3.0
4421-23SIUSIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+3.1
4522-23SIUVALPOKillMcKenzie Moellerset Rylee Bumgardner+1.7
4622-24VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+2.8
4723-24SIUVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+1.6
4824-24VALPOVALPOBad setElla McFarland+4.6
4924-25VALPOSIUAttack errAva Helming+3.5
5024-26SIUSIUBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Valentina Zevallos, Ella Swansiger+4.9
Set 4
11-0VALPOVALPOBlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Ava Helming, Jessica Pickett+2.5
21-1VALPOSIU×9Attack errAva Helming+2.0
31-2SIUSIU×9Attack errJessica Pickett+2.8
41-3SIUSIU×9AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+2.9
51-4SIUSIU×9BlockedAva Helmingblk Alexandria Arrington, Beatriz Piaia+2.9
61-5SIUSIU×9KillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+2.9
71-6SIUSIU×9KillBeatriz Piaia+2.7
81-7SIUSIU×9AceSouthern Ill.aced Danica Goch+2.5
91-8SIUSIU×9Bad setOlivia Wagner+2.2
101-9SIUSIU×9KillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.8
112-9SIUVALPO×3BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Ava Helming, Jessica Pickett+1.1
123-9VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Ava Helming+1.7
134-9VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaisoaced McKenzie Moeller+2.0
144-10VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+2.0
155-10SIUVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.5
166-10VALPOVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+2.4
177-10VALPOVALPO×3Attack errAlexandria Arrington+2.7
187-11VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+2.5
198-11SIUVALPOAttack errNatalie Vance+2.1
208-12VALPOSIUKillValentina Zevallosset Lillian Dempkey+2.6
218-13SIUSIUAttack errOlivia Wagner+3.0
229-13SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.8
239-14VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+2.3
2410-14SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Jordyn Gove+1.8
2511-14VALPOVALPOAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+2.8
2611-15VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+2.7
2712-15SIUVALPOServe errSouthern Ill.+2.2
2812-16VALPOSIUAttack errKeira Lucas+2.8
2913-16SIUVALPOAttack errElla Swansiger+2.2
3013-17VALPOSIUBlockedJessica Pickettblk Beatriz Piaia+2.9
3113-18SIUSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+3.1
3214-18SIUVALPO×5KillOlivia Wagnerset Keira Lucas+1.6
3315-18VALPOVALPO×5KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+2.9
3416-18VALPOVALPO×5Attack errElla Swansiger+3.6
3517-18VALPOVALPO×5AceValparaisoaced McKenzie Moeller+4.3
3618-18VALPOVALPO×5KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+4.9
3718-19VALPOSIU×4Serve errValparaiso+4.2
3818-20SIUSIU×4BlockedJessica Pickettblk Valentina Zevallos+5.6
3918-21SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.aced Maggie Uhwat+5.1
4018-22SIUSIU×4KillNatalie Vanceset Jillian Shaneyfelt+4.0
4119-22SIUVALPO×4Serve errSouthern Ill.+1.7
4220-22VALPOVALPO×4BlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Olivia Wagner, Maddie Steele+3.6
4321-22VALPOVALPO×4Bad setLillian Dempkey+5.3
4422-22VALPOVALPO×4KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+7.2
4522-23VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+6.9
4623-23SIUVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+6.5
4724-23VALPOVALPOBlockedNatalie Vanceblk Ava Helming, Maddie Steele+10.6
4824-24VALPOSIU×3Serve errValparaiso+8.1
4924-25SIUSIU×3BlockedMaggie Uhwatblk McKenzie Moeller, Beatriz Piaia+11.3
5024-26SIUSIU×3AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+11.4
Set 5
11-0SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+6.1
21-1VALPOSIUServe errValparaiso+6.3
32-1SIUVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+6.4
42-2VALPOSIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+6.6
53-2SIUVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+6.6
63-3VALPOSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+6.9
73-4SIUSIUAttack errMaggie Uhwat+9.7
84-4SIUVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+7.2
94-5VALPOSIU×3Serve errValparaiso+7.9
104-6SIUSIU×3AceSouthern Ill.aced Rylee Bumgardner+10.6
114-7SIUSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moeller+10.2
125-7SIUVALPOKillAva Helmingset Jordyn Gove+6.5
135-8VALPOSIU×8Serve errValparaiso+8.3
145-9SIUSIU×8Attack errMaddie Steele+9.3
155-10SIUSIU×8BlockedJordyn Goveblk Beatriz Piaia, Natalie Vance+7.2
165-11SIUSIU×8Attack errAva Helming+4.9
175-12SIUSIU×8Attack errAva Helming+2.7
185-13SIUSIU×8KillBeatriz Piaia+1.2
195-14SIUSIU×8Attack errJordyn Gove+0.3
205-15SIUSIU×8Attack errJordyn Gove+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Valparaiso first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).