Murray State vs Valparaiso Volleyball: Valparaiso Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Valparaiso 92.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Valparaiso beat visiting Murray St. 3-0 (25-23, 25-23, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Ava Helming led Valparaiso with 14 kills; Murray St.'s Anne Makowski had a match-high 18.

Data through Nov 3, 9:50 PM CT · final Oct 9

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MURRAY	23	23	21	0
VALPO	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ava Helming needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Valparaiso swept Murray St.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.3 points. Murray St. peaked at 10% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Valparaiso at 93%.

Murray St.Valparaiso

Hitting+.082
.228.310
49 kills, 13 errors vs 42 kills, 16 errors.

Valparaiso above 50Murray St. belowMax swing 3.3%

Murray St.Valparaiso

Aces: Murray St. 4·Valparaiso 4
Serve err: Murray St. 6·Valparaiso 7
Blocks: Murray St. 2·Valparaiso 61 BS · 2 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs: Murray St. 44·Valparaiso 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Valparaiso above 50 · Murray St. below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Valparaiso — set 1, MURRAY 23-25 VALPO. Kill by Ava Helming (set by Mara Thomas). VALPO win probability 93% → 96%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MURRAY 10.1%89.9% VALPO

Murray St. wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.1%

3-2

5.7%

Valparaiso wins

3-0

44.3%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.1%

MURRAY break %: 37.6% vs this opp
VALPO break %: 47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Ava HelmingKill+3.3%
Kill by Ava Helming (set by Mara Thomas)
Set 1 · MURRAY 23-25 VALPO · VALPO 93% → 96%
02
Jordyn GoveKill+2.9%
Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Mara Thomas)
Set 1 · MURRAY 23-24 VALPO · VALPO 90% → 93%
03
Lily BurnettKill+2.8%
Kill by Lily Burnett
Set 1 · MURRAY 22-22 VALPO · MURRAY 7% → 10%
04
Paige BrockKill+2.4%
Kill by Paige Brock (set by Ava Helming)
Set 1 · MURRAY 23-23 VALPO · MURRAY 8% → 10%
05
Jordyn Gove&Kyla BellichBlock+2.3%
Alexa Watts stuffed by Jordyn Gove & Kyla Bellich
Set 1 · MURRAY 22-23 VALPO · VALPO 90% → 92%
06
Mia McCallAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Mia McCall
Set 1 · MURRAY 18-18 VALPO · MURRAY 7% → 9%
07
Lily BurnettKill+1.8%
Kill by Lily Burnett
Set 1 · MURRAY 15-14 VALPO · MURRAY 9% → 10%
08
ValparaisoAce+1.7%
Valparaiso ace
Set 1 · MURRAY 18-20 VALPO · VALPO 92% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Murray St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Anne MakowskiOH	3	18	5	43	.302	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	18
5Lily BurnettOH	3	8	3	20	.250	0	1	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
11Maezi SnyderMB	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
14Mija Sagadin PristovnikOH	3	5	4	17	.059	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	5
15Alexa WattsOH	3	3	3	16	.000	0	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Paige BrockS	3	1	0	1	1.000	35	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
1Ada TamturkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	10	2	0	0	0	2
3Samantha NelsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	16	114	.228	37	4	6	44	4	1	2	2	67

Valparaisohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ava HelmingOH	3	14	3	31	.355	2	1	2	8	0	1	0.5	15.5
4Jordyn GoveOH	3	13	3	34	.294	1	0	2	9	3	2	1	14
21Sarah PippinOH	3	9	1	20	.400	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	10
9Kyla BellichMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
6Mia McCallS	3	1	1	2	.000	22	2	1	4	0	0	0	3
11Maggie UhwatOH	2	0	2	10	-.200	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
27Jessica PickettMB	3	5	1	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
7Mara ThomasS	3	1	1	3	.000	18	1	1	7	0	0	0	2
14Keira LucasOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	14	1	0	0	0
1Rylee BumgardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Maddie SteeleMB	2	2	0	2	1.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
31Mia LibertiDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	13	116	.310	46	4	7	47	4	12	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MURRAY · VALPO 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYVALPO 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYVALPO 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 MURRAYVALPO 4

Bars above the line = Valparaiso leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	11%1/9
2	62%8/13	20%2/10
3	67%8/12	33%4/12
4	70%7/10	53%9/17
5	67%6/9	36%4/11
6	75%6/8	40%4/10
All	59%43/73	35%24/69

Valparaiso

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	46%6/13
2	80%8/10	56%10/18
3	62%8/13	27%3/11
4	50%8/16	38%5/13
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	75%6/8	40%4/10
All	65%45/69	41%30/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

142 rallies

#	MURRAY-VALPO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MURRAY	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Keira Lucas	+0.6
2	0-2	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Kyla Bellich	set Mia McCall	+0.7
3	0-3	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.6
4	1-3	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.4
5	1-4	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.4
6	2-4	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
7	2-5	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.4
8	3-5	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.5
9	4-5	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	Murray St.	aced Keira Lucas	+0.8
10	4-6	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.6
11	5-6	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
12	5-7	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Jordyn Gove	+0.6
13	6-7	VALPO	MURRAY	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.6
14	6-8	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+0.6
15	6-9	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	Valparaiso	aced Ada Tamturk	+0.7
16	7-9	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.5
17	7-10	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.5
18	8-10	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.5
19	8-11	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.5
20	8-12	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.6
21	9-12	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.4
22	10-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.8
23	10-13	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.6
24	11-13	VALPO	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.6
25	12-13	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Blocked	Maggie Uhwat	blk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts	+1.1
26	13-13	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Bad set	Mara Thomas		+1.4
27	13-14	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Maggie Uhwat	+1.0
28	14-14	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.1
29	15-14	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett		+1.8
30	15-15	MURRAY	VALPO×3	Serve err	Murray St.		+1.2
31	15-16	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mara Thomas	+1.6
32	15-17	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mara Thomas	+1.4
33	16-17	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+1.0
34	16-18	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+1.0
35	17-18	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.0
36	18-18	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Mia McCall		+1.9
37	18-19	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Maezi Snyder		+1.4
38	18-20	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	Valparaiso		+1.7
39	19-20	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.1
40	19-21	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Ava Helming	+1.3
41	19-22	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+1.3
42	20-22	VALPO	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.7
43	21-22	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+1.6
44	22-22	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Lily Burnett		+2.8
45	22-23	MURRAY	VALPO	Blocked	Alexa Watts	blk Jordyn Gove, Kyla Bellich	+2.3
46	23-23	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Paige Brock	set Ava Helming	+2.4
47	23-24	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+2.9
48	23-25	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+3.3
Set 2
1	0-1	VALPO	VALPO×3	Blocked	Anne Makowski	blk Jessica Pickett, Ava Helming	+0.5
2	0-2	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.5
3	0-3	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	Valparaiso	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.4
4	1-3	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.3
5	1-4	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.3
6	1-5	VALPO	VALPO	Blocked	Lily Burnett	blk Jessica Pickett, Sarah Pippin	+0.3
7	2-5	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.2
8	2-6	MURRAY	VALPO	Blocked	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Jessica Pickett, Sarah Pippin	+0.2
9	3-6	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.2
10	4-6	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	Murray St.	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.4
11	4-7	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.3
12	5-7	VALPO	MURRAY	Attack err	Mara Thomas		+0.3
13	5-8	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.3
14	6-8	VALPO	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.3
15	7-8	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Maezi Snyder		+0.6
16	8-8	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.7
17	8-9	MURRAY	VALPO	Serve err	Murray St.		+0.5
18	9-9	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
19	9-10	MURRAY	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
20	9-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.6
21	9-12	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.5
22	10-12	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.4
23	10-13	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.4
24	10-14	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+0.4
25	11-14	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.3
26	12-14	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.5
27	12-15	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia McCall	+0.4
28	13-15	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.4
29	13-16	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.4
30	14-16	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.4
31	14-17	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.5
32	15-17	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.4
33	15-18	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
34	15-19	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.5
35	16-19	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.3
36	16-20	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mara Thomas	+0.3
37	17-20	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.3
38	18-20	MURRAY	MURRAY	Blocked	Jordyn Gove	blk Lily Burnett	+0.6
39	18-21	MURRAY	VALPO	Serve err	Murray St.		+0.6
40	19-21	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
41	19-22	MURRAY	VALPO	Serve err	Murray St.		+0.6
42	20-22	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.4
43	21-22	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.1
44	21-23	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+1.0
45	21-24	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	Valparaiso	aced Ada Tamturk	+0.9
46	22-24	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.3
47	23-24	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.9
48	23-25	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+1.5
Set 3
1	0-1	MURRAY	VALPO×4	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.2
2	0-2	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+0.2
3	0-3	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia McCall	+0.2
4	0-4	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Mia McCall	set Ava Helming	+0.2
5	1-4	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.1
6	1-5	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.1
7	1-6	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia McCall	+0.1
8	2-6	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.1
9	2-7	MURRAY	VALPO×4	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Mia McCall	+0.1
10	2-8	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Kyla Bellich	set Keira Lucas	+0.1
11	2-9	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
12	2-10	VALPO	VALPO×4	Blocked	Anne Makowski	blk Kyla Bellich, Maddie Steele	·
13	3-10	VALPO	MURRAY×4	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	·
14	4-10	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	Murray St.	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.1
15	5-10	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	Murray St.	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.1
16	6-10	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.1
17	6-11	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
18	6-12	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Mara Thomas	set Maddie Steele	+0.1
19	7-12	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.1
20	8-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Ada Tamturk	+0.1
21	8-13	MURRAY	VALPO	Serve err	Murray St.		+0.1
22	8-14	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Kyla Bellich		+0.1
23	9-14	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.1
24	9-15	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
25	10-15	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.1
26	10-16	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.1
27	11-16	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.1
28	12-16	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Sarah Pippin		+0.1
29	12-17	MURRAY	VALPO	Serve err	Murray St.		+0.1
30	13-17	VALPO	MURRAY	Serve err	Valparaiso		+0.1
31	13-18	MURRAY	VALPO	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+0.1
32	13-19	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.1
33	14-19	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	·
34	15-19	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.1
35	15-20	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Kyla Bellich	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
36	16-20	VALPO	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.1
37	17-20	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.2
38	17-21	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.2
39	18-21	VALPO	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.1
40	19-21	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Kyla Bellich		+0.3
41	20-21	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.5
42	20-22	MURRAY	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mara Thomas	+0.4
43	21-22	VALPO	MURRAY	Attack err	Jessica Pickett		+0.4
44	21-23	MURRAY	VALPO×3	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mia McCall	+0.5
45	21-24	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.4
46	21-25	VALPO	VALPO×3	Blocked	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Jessica Pickett, Jordyn Gove	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Valparaiso def. Murray St. 3–0

Ava Helming needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Valparaiso swept Murray St.