Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026

Western Ill. def. Tennessee St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Ill. 87.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Ill. won at Tennessee St. 3-1 (22-25, 25-21, 25-16, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Western Ill.'s Ashlee Markert led with 20 kills, and Kennedy Adair added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
W ILL222525253
TENNST252116181

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Jaleah Bauss served 5 aces, and Western Ill. needed every one.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Western Ill.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Western Ill. went in as RallyIQ's 87% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Western Ill. 22–21 Tennessee St.

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Tennessee St., enough to take the set 25–22 and lead 1–0.

    Western Ill. 88% → 69%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Western Ill. 16–18 Tennessee St.

    Western Ill. scored 6 straight to turn a 16–18 deficit into a 22–18 lead.

    Western Ill. 56% → 80%

Tennessee St. above 50Western Ill. belowMax swing 5.9%

Western Ill.Tennessee St.

Sideout %
Western Ill. 58.0·Tennessee St. 47.9
Break %
Western Ill. 52.1·Tennessee St. 42.0
Hitting
Western Ill. .289·Tennessee St. .233
Longest run
Western Ill. 7·Tennessee St. 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tennessee St. above 50 · Western Ill. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.9% TENNSTrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.9% to Tennessee St. — set 1, W ILL 22-24 TENNST. Tennessee St. ace on Karlie Lane. TENNST win probability 21% → 27%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W ILL 84.0%16.0% TENNST

Western Ill. wins

3-0
35.9%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
17.0%

Tennessee St. wins

3-0
2.4%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
8.4%
W ILL break %
47.1% vs this opp
TENNST break %
39.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Tennessee St.Ace+5.9%

    Tennessee St. ace on Karlie Lane

    Set 1 · W ILL 22-24 TENNST · TENNST 21% → 27%

  2. 02

    Kill by Carsyn Stansberry (set by Triniti Jackson)

    Set 1 · W ILL 22-23 TENNST · TENNST 16% → 21%

  3. 03
    Western Ill.Ace+5.0%

    Western Ill. ace

    Set 2 · W ILL 18-18 TENNST · W ILL 60% → 65%

  4. 04

    Kill by Gabriella Blevins

    Set 2 · W ILL 14-17 TENNST · TENNST 42% → 47%

  5. 05

    Sydney Robinson stuffed by Emilia Kouri & Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella

    Set 2 · W ILL 19-18 TENNST · W ILL 65% → 70%

  6. 06
    Kennedy AdairAttack error+4.8%

    Attack error by Kennedy Adair

    Set 2 · W ILL 14-16 TENNST · TENNST 37% → 42%

  7. 07
    Western Ill.Ace+4.5%

    Western Ill. ace

    Set 2 · W ILL 16-17 TENNST · W ILL 56% → 60%

  8. 08

    Kill by Wiktoria Jakubik (set by Triniti Jackson)

    Set 2 · W ILL 14-15 TENNST · TENNST 33% → 37%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420745.28912411000022
412226.38502013100014
48117.412100300008
4203.6672051100007
44011.36410010111.55.5
43512-.167000500003
48319.26310000010.58.5
4001.000400900000
4000–200820000
3001.0001821600002
3000–000000000
1000–401000000
Team totals5718135.2895211757412297
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417440.32500281031.518.5
46011.545101100217
44113.23136101010005
4000–130620003
3319.22200000031.54.5
3024-.50000010010.50.5
413634.20600032010.513.5
44413.000000100215
4113.0001021430001
41011.000000000001
4001.000202600000
2000–000000000
Team totals4919129.23341475011012680

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Western Ill. vs Tennessee St.

Season series · Western Ill. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 W ILL · TENNST 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 W ILLTENNST 6

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 W ILLTENNST 5

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 5 W ILLTENNST 2

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 7 W ILLTENNST 4

Bars above the line = Tennessee St. leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
65%13/20
2
47%8/17
20%2/10
3
67%8/12
43%6/14
4
80%8/10
43%6/14
5
80%8/10
60%12/20
6
47%7/15
61%11/18
All
58%47/81
52%50/96

Tennessee St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
65%13/20
2
67%8/12
27%3/11
3
73%8/11
56%10/18
4
40%8/20
20%2/10
5
50%8/16
20%2/10
6
30%6/20
33%4/12
All
48%46/96
42%34/81

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#W ILL-TENNSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.9
22-0W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Jordan Imperial+1.1
32-1W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+0.8
42-2TENNSTTENNSTAttack errGeorgia Haynes+1.3
53-2TENNSTW ILL×5Serve errTennessee St.+0.9
64-2W ILLW ILL×5AceWestern Ill.aced Sydni Poston+1.2
75-2W ILLW ILL×5Attack errJordan Imperial+1.0
86-2W ILLW ILL×5Attack errWiktoria Jakubik+0.8
97-2W ILLW ILL×5KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.7
107-3W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.5
118-3TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Karlie Lane+0.5
128-4W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+0.5
139-4TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.5
1410-4W ILLW ILLAttack errWiktoria Jakubik+0.5
1510-5W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.4
1610-6TENNSTTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.6
1711-6TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+0.5
1812-6W ILLW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Alysia Perez+0.6
1912-7W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.4
2012-8TENNSTTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.6
2113-8TENNSTW ILLBlockedCarsyn Stansberryblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+0.6
2213-9W ILLTENNST×3KillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.5
2313-10TENNSTTENNST×3AceTennessee St.aced Kennedy Adair+0.9
2413-11TENNSTTENNST×3BlockedHillary Estesblk Wiktoria Jakubik, Gabrielle Washington+1.2
2514-11TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Alysia Perez+1.0
2614-12W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.0
2714-13TENNSTTENNSTKillCarsyn Stansberryset Jordan Imperial+1.6
2815-13TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+1.3
2915-14W ILLTENNST×3KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.3
3015-15TENNSTTENNST×3KillGabriella Blevins+2.1
3115-16TENNSTTENNST×3BlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Wiktoria Jakubik, Gabriella Blevins+2.5
3216-16TENNSTW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+1.8
3317-16W ILLW ILLBad setTriniti Jackson+2.3
3417-17W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Italya Carter+1.8
3518-17TENNSTW ILL×3Serve errTennessee St.+1.8
3619-17W ILLW ILL×3Attack errSydney Robinson+2.2
3720-17W ILLW ILL×3Bad setJordan Imperial+1.8
3820-18W ILLTENNSTAttack errKennedy Adair+1.1
3921-18TENNSTW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Alysia Perez+1.3
4021-19W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+1.1
4122-19TENNSTW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Alysia Perez+1.4
4222-20W ILLTENNST×6Attack errAshlee Markert+1.0
4322-21TENNSTTENNST×6BlockedAshlee Markertblk Carsyn Stansberry, Gabrielle Washington+2.4
4422-22TENNSTTENNST×6KillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+3.8
4522-23TENNSTTENNST×6KillCarsyn Stansberryset Triniti Jackson+5.3
4622-24TENNSTTENNST×6AceTennessee St.aced Karlie Lane+5.9
4722-25TENNSTTENNST×6BlockedAshlee Markertblk Carsyn Stansberry, Gabrielle Washington+3.9
Set 2
11-0W ILLW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+2.2
22-0W ILLW ILLBad setTriniti Jackson+2.0
32-1W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+1.5
42-2TENNSTTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+2.4
53-2TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+1.7
63-3W ILLTENNST×3KillTriniti Jackson+1.9
73-4TENNSTTENNST×3KillGabriella Blevinsset Jaleah Bauss+2.8
83-5TENNSTTENNST×3KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+3.1
94-5TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+2.1
104-6W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+2.4
114-7TENNSTTENNSTAttack errEmilia Kouri+3.4
125-7TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+2.2
135-8W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+2.7
145-9TENNSTTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Wiktoria Jakubik+3.6
156-9TENNSTW ILL×4KillAshlee Markertset Emilia Kouri+2.2
167-9W ILLW ILL×4KillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+3.2
178-9W ILLW ILL×4KillHillary Estesset Ashlee Markert+3.2
189-9W ILLW ILL×4Attack errSydney Robinson+3.2
199-10W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Madelyn Norton+2.6
2010-10TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Madelyn Norton+2.4
2110-11W ILLTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+2.7
2211-11TENNSTW ILL×3KillHillary Estesset Grace Ulatowski+2.5
2312-11W ILLW ILL×3Attack errCarsyn Stansberry+3.2
2413-11W ILLW ILL×3Attack errCarsyn Stansberry+2.9
2513-12W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+2.2
2614-12TENNSTW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.2
2714-13W ILLTENNST×5KillJordan Imperialset Triniti Jackson+2.3
2814-14TENNSTTENNST×5KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+3.7
2914-15TENNSTTENNST×5KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+4.4
3014-16TENNSTTENNST×5Attack errKennedy Adair+4.8
3114-17TENNSTTENNST×5KillGabriella Blevins+5.0
3215-17TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+2.9
3316-17W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.+4.5
3416-18W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+4.2
3517-18TENNSTW ILL×6KillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+3.4
3618-18W ILLW ILL×6AceWestern Ill.+5.0
3719-18W ILLW ILL×6BlockedSydney Robinsonblk Emilia Kouri, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+4.9
3820-18W ILLW ILL×6KillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Triniti Jackson+4.3
3921-18W ILLW ILL×6Attack errWiktoria Jakubik+3.4
4022-18W ILLW ILL×6KillAshlee Markert+2.2
4122-19W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+1.0
4223-19TENNSTW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Madelyn Norton+1.5
4323-20W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.8
4423-21TENNSTTENNSTAceTennessee St.aced Karlie Lane+2.1
4524-21TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Madelyn Norton+2.7
4625-21W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Jordan Imperial+1.3
Set 3
11-0TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Hillary Estes+1.5
21-1W ILLTENNSTBad setAshlee Markert+1.7
32-1TENNSTW ILLKillJaleah Baussset Triniti Jackson+1.6
42-2W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+1.7
53-2TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+1.6
63-3W ILLTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Hillary Estes+1.8
73-4TENNSTTENNSTBlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Gabriella Blevins, Sydney Robinson+2.6
84-4TENNSTW ILL×4KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.8
95-4W ILLW ILL×4KillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski+2.3
106-4W ILLW ILL×4Attack errSydney Robinson+2.1
117-4W ILLW ILL×4KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+1.8
127-5W ILLTENNSTBad setMadelyn Norton+1.4
138-5TENNSTW ILL×3KillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+1.4
149-5W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Sydney Robinson+1.6
1510-5W ILLW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+1.2
1610-6W ILLTENNSTKillJulia Culpepperset Italya Carter+0.8
1710-7TENNSTTENNSTAttack errEmilia Kouri+1.5
1811-7TENNSTW ILL×5KillEmilia Kouriset Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+1.2
1912-7W ILLW ILL×5Attack errSydney Robinson+1.3
2013-7W ILLW ILL×5KillEmilia Kouriset Grace Ulatowski+1.0
2114-7W ILLW ILL×5KillAshlee Markert+0.7
2215-7W ILLW ILL×5KillAshlee Markertset Grace Ulatowski+0.4
2315-8W ILLTENNSTAttack errEmilia Kouri+0.2
2415-9TENNSTTENNSTAceTennessee St.+0.5
2516-9TENNSTW ILLAttack errGabrielle Washington+0.5
2617-9W ILLW ILLAttack errWiktoria Jakubik+0.4
2717-10W ILLTENNSTKillCarsyn Stansberryset Triniti Jackson+0.2
2818-10TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+0.3
2918-11W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+0.2
3018-12TENNSTTENNSTKillGabriella Blevinsset Triniti Jackson+0.4
3119-12TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
3219-13W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+0.3
3320-13TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
3421-13W ILLW ILLAttack errTriniti Jackson+0.2
3521-14W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.1
3622-14TENNSTW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+0.1
3722-15W ILLTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+0.1
3822-16TENNSTTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.1
3923-16TENNSTW ILL×3KillEmilia Kouriset Triniti Jackson+0.2
4024-16W ILLW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.1
4125-16W ILLW ILL×3KillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton·
Set 4
11-0W ILLW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+1.6
22-0W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Jordan Imperial+1.4
32-1W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+1.1
43-1TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+1.0
53-2W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.1
64-2TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+1.1
75-2W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Wiktoria Jakubik+1.3
85-3W ILLTENNSTKillGabriella Blevinsset Triniti Jackson+1.0
96-3TENNSTW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+1.0
106-4W ILLTENNSTKillGabriella Blevinsset Triniti Jackson+1.0
117-4TENNSTW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Madelyn Norton+1.0
127-5W ILLTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+1.0
138-5TENNSTW ILL×7Attack errSavanna Moore+1.0
149-5W ILLW ILL×7AceWestern Ill.aced Triniti Jackson+1.2
1510-5W ILLW ILL×7AceWestern Ill.aced Sydni Poston+0.9
1611-5W ILLW ILL×7KillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.7
1712-5W ILLW ILL×7Attack errSydney Robinson+0.5
1813-5W ILLW ILL×7AceWestern Ill.aced Sydney Robinson+0.3
1914-5W ILLW ILL×7KillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.2
2014-6W ILLTENNST×3Serve errWestern Ill.+0.1
2114-7TENNSTTENNST×3KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+0.2
2214-8TENNSTTENNST×3KillCarsyn Stansberryset Sydni Poston+0.4
2315-8TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+0.4
2416-8W ILLW ILLAttack errCarsyn Stansberry+0.3
2516-9W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.2
2617-9TENNSTW ILLKillJaleah Baussset Karlie Lane+0.2
2717-10W ILLTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+0.1
2817-11TENNSTTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Jaleah Bauss+0.3
2918-11TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.3
3018-12W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.2
3119-12TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.3
3219-13W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.2
3320-13TENNSTW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.3
3421-13W ILLW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.2
3522-13W ILLW ILL×3KillAshlee Markert+0.1
3622-14W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson·
3723-14TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton·
3824-14W ILLW ILLAttack errSavanna Moore·
3924-15W ILLTENNST×4KillTriniti Jacksonset Gabriella Blevins·
4024-16TENNSTTENNST×4Attack errGeorgia Haynes·
4124-17TENNSTTENNST×4KillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson·
4224-18TENNSTTENNST×4BlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Wiktoria Jakubik, Savanna Moore·
4325-18TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss·

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).