FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026

Western Ill. def. Tennessee St. 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Ill. 86.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 1:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Ill. won at Tennessee St. 3-0 (25-18, 25-23, 25-20) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Western Ill.'s Kennedy Adair led with 13 kills.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set123Sets
W ILL2525253
TENNST1823200

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Western Ill. swept Tennessee St. without a set decided by more than seven and led every phase.

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.5 points, and Tennessee St.'s high was 17% in Set 1. The numbers below are where it was won. RallyIQ gave Western Ill. 87% before first serve.

Western Ill.Tennessee St.
  • Break %+11.5 pts
    48.637.1

    On serve: 36/74 against 23/62 (Tennessee St. sideout 51.4%).

  • Hitting+.080
    .250.170

    42 K / 15 E against 34 K / 17 E.

  • Longest run+1
    54

    From 16–16 in the second set, Western Ill. scored 5 straight to lead 21–16. That set ended 25–23.

Tennessee St. above 50Western Ill. belowMax swing 2.5%

Western Ill.Tennessee St.

Aces
Western Ill. 6·Tennessee St. 3
Serve err
Western Ill. 8·Tennessee St. 7
Blocks
Western Ill. 4·Tennessee St. 30 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 2 BA
Digs
Western Ill. 48·Tennessee St. 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tennessee St. above 50 · Western Ill. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.5% W ILLrally 136 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Western Ill. — set 2, W ILL 25-23 TENNST. Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Jaleah Bauss). TENNST win probability 5% → 2%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W ILL 84.0%16.0% TENNST

Western Ill. wins

3-0
35.9%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
17.0%

Tennessee St. wins

3-0
2.4%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
8.4%
W ILL break %
47.1% vs this opp
TENNST break %
39.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kennedy AdairKill+2.5%

    Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Jaleah Bauss)

    Set 2 · W ILL 25-23 TENNST · W ILL 95% → 98%

  2. 02

    Kill by Ashlee Markert (set by Karlie Lane)

    Set 2 · W ILL 24-22 TENNST · W ILL 95% → 96%

  3. 03
    Kennedy AdairAttack error+1.9%

    Attack error by Kennedy Adair

    Set 1 · W ILL 6-8 TENNST · TENNST 15% → 17%

  4. 04

    Kill by Gabrielle Washington (set by Triniti Jackson)

    Set 2 · W ILL 23-22 TENNST · TENNST 4% → 5%

  5. 05
    Sydney RobinsonAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Sydney Robinson

    Set 1 · W ILL 8-8 TENNST · W ILL 84% → 86%

  6. 06
    Georgia HaynesAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Georgia Haynes

    Set 1 · W ILL 5-6 TENNST · TENNST 13% → 15%

  7. 07
    Gabrielle WashingtonAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Gabrielle Washington

    Set 1 · W ILL 10-9 TENNST · W ILL 86% → 88%

  8. 08

    Kill by Triniti Jackson (set by Jordan Imperial)

    Set 2 · W ILL 12-13 TENNST · TENNST 8% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313431.29001010202115
38425.160113800009
38519.15800010010.58.5
3306.500000100425
34216.125001200004
31011.0001812300002
3509.55600040010.55.5
3001.0001521600002
3000–310500001
3000–200800000
3000–001000000
Team totals4215108.250396848308475
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38313.38500040111.59.5
37326.154012400008
38323.217000120008
36314.2141800800006
34413.00001110010.55.5
3118.000000101012
3000–012000001
3003.000902900000
3000–4001500000
3000–000100000
3000–200410000
Team totals3417100.170333748622361

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Western Ill. vs Tennessee St.

Season series · Western Ill. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 W ILL · TENNST 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 W ILLTENNST 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 W ILLTENNST 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 W ILLTENNST 3

Bars above the line = Tennessee St. leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
42%5/12
2
53%8/15
33%4/12
3
55%6/11
50%6/12
4
60%6/10
57%8/14
5
86%6/7
50%6/12
6
83%5/6
58%7/12
All
63%39/62
49%36/74

Tennessee St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
33%3/9
2
47%7/15
38%5/13
3
60%6/10
46%6/13
4
38%6/16
33%3/9
5
67%6/9
45%5/11
6
45%5/11
14%1/7
All
51%38/74
37%23/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

136 rallies

#W ILL-TENNSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+1.1
21-1TENNSTW ILL×4KillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+1.0
32-1W ILLW ILL×4Bad setTriniti Jackson+1.2
43-1W ILLW ILL×4KillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+1.1
54-1W ILLW ILL×4Attack errGabrielle Washington+1.0
64-2W ILLTENNST×3Serve errWestern Ill.+0.8
74-3TENNSTTENNST×3Attack errGeorgia Haynes+1.2
84-4TENNSTTENNST×3BlockedHillary Estesblk Gabriella Blevins+1.4
95-4TENNSTW ILLAttack errWiktoria Jakubik+1.0
105-5W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.1
115-6TENNSTTENNSTAttack errGeorgia Haynes+1.6
126-6TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+1.1
136-7W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.3
146-8TENNSTTENNSTAttack errKennedy Adair+1.9
157-8TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+1.3
168-8W ILLW ILLAttack errSydney Robinson+1.7
178-9W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Triniti Jackson+1.4
189-9TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+1.3
1910-9W ILLW ILLAttack errGabrielle Washington+1.6
2010-10W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+1.3
2111-10TENNSTW ILL×4KillHillary Estesset Madelyn Norton+1.3
2212-10W ILLW ILL×4Bad setTriniti Jackson+1.5
2313-10W ILLW ILL×4KillAshlee Markert+1.3
2414-10W ILLW ILL×4AceWestern Ill.+1.0
2514-11W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.7
2615-11TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.8
2716-11W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.+0.8
2816-12W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+0.5
2917-12TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.6
3018-12W ILLW ILLAttack errGabriella Blevins+0.5
3118-13W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.3
3219-13TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
3319-14W ILLTENNST×4Serve errWestern Ill.+0.3
3419-15TENNSTTENNST×4Attack errAshlee Markert+0.6
3519-16TENNSTTENNST×4KillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.9
3619-17TENNSTTENNST×4Attack errKennedy Adair+1.4
3720-17TENNSTW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Madelyn Norton+1.3
3821-17W ILLW ILLBlockedSydney Robinsonblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Kennedy Adair+1.2
3921-18W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Italya Carter+0.6
4022-18TENNSTW ILL×4KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.9
4123-18W ILLW ILL×4KillHillary Estes+0.6
4224-18W ILLW ILL×4KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.2
4325-18W ILLW ILL×4AceWestern Ill.aced Sydney Robinson·
Set 2
11-0TENNSTW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.6
21-1W ILLTENNSTBlockedHillary Estesblk Gabrielle Washington, Carsyn Stansberry+0.7
31-2TENNSTTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Jordan Imperial+1.0
42-2TENNSTW ILL×3KillGeorgia Haynesset Ashlee Markert+0.7
53-2W ILLW ILL×3KillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.9
64-2W ILLW ILL×3BlockedWiktoria Jakubikblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Georgia Haynes+0.8
74-3W ILLTENNSTKillGabriella Blevinsset Triniti Jackson+0.6
84-4TENNSTTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Italya Carter+1.0
95-4TENNSTW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.7
106-4W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Sydni Poston+0.9
117-4W ILLW ILL×3KillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Madelyn Norton+0.8
127-5W ILLTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Italya Carter+0.6
138-5TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.6
148-6W ILLTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Jordan Imperial+0.6
159-6TENNSTW ILLBlockedGabrielle Washingtonblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Emilia Kouri+0.6
1610-6W ILLW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.7
1710-7W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.5
1811-7TENNSTW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+0.5
1911-8W ILLTENNST×3KillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.5
2011-9TENNSTTENNST×3Attack errGeorgia Haynes+0.8
2111-10TENNSTTENNST×3KillGabrielle Washingtonset Jaleah Bauss+1.0
2212-10TENNSTW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+0.8
2312-11W ILLTENNST×3Serve errWestern Ill.+0.8
2412-12TENNSTTENNST×3KillCarsyn Stansberryset Triniti Jackson+1.3
2512-13TENNSTTENNST×3KillTriniti Jacksonset Jordan Imperial+1.5
2613-13TENNSTW ILL×3KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.1
2714-13W ILLW ILL×3KillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+1.4
2815-13W ILLW ILL×3BlockedCarsyn Stansberryblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Kennedy Adair+1.2
2915-14W ILLTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Sydni Poston+0.9
3015-15TENNSTTENNSTAttack errKennedy Adair+1.5
3116-15TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.1
3216-16W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Italya Carter+1.2
3317-16TENNSTW ILL×5KillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+1.2
3418-16W ILLW ILL×5Bad setItalya Carter+1.5
3519-16W ILLW ILL×5KillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+1.2
3620-16W ILLW ILL×5KillEmilia Kouriset Grace Ulatowski+0.9
3721-16W ILLW ILL×5AceWestern Ill.+0.5
3821-17W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Italya Carter+0.3
3921-18TENNSTTENNSTAceTennessee St.aced Kennedy Adair+0.6
4022-18TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+0.6
4122-19W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Italya Carter+0.4
4222-20TENNSTTENNSTBad setEmilia Kouri+1.0
4323-20TENNSTW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+1.1
4423-21W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.7
4523-22TENNSTTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+1.7
4624-22TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Karlie Lane+2.0
4724-23W ILLTENNSTKillCarsyn Stansberryset Triniti Jackson+1.2
4825-23TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+2.5
Set 3
10-1W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+0.4
20-2TENNSTTENNSTKillCarsyn Stansberryset Sydni Poston+0.5
31-2TENNSTW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
41-3W ILLTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Jordan Imperial+0.4
52-3TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+0.4
62-4W ILLTENNSTServe errWestern Ill.+0.4
72-5TENNSTTENNSTKillWiktoria Jakubikset Italya Carter+0.6
83-5TENNSTW ILL×3Serve errTennessee St.+0.4
94-5W ILLW ILL×3Attack errTriniti Jackson+0.5
105-5W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Sydney Robinson+0.5
115-6W ILLTENNSTKillTriniti Jacksonset Italya Carter+0.4
126-6TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.4
136-7W ILLTENNSTBlockedAshlee Markertblk Gabrielle Washington+0.4
147-7TENNSTW ILL×3KillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+0.4
158-7W ILLW ILL×3KillEmilia Kouriset Grace Ulatowski+0.5
169-7W ILLW ILL×3Attack errCarsyn Stansberry+0.5
179-8W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.4
1810-8TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Karlie Lane+0.4
1911-8W ILLW ILLAttack errCarsyn Stansberry+0.4
2011-9W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Triniti Jackson+0.3
2111-10TENNSTTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+0.5
2212-10TENNSTW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
2312-11W ILLTENNSTKillCarsyn Stansberryset Triniti Jackson+0.4
2413-11TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
2514-11W ILLW ILLAttack errWiktoria Jakubik+0.5
2614-12W ILLTENNSTAttack errAshlee Markert+0.3
2714-13TENNSTTENNSTAceTennessee St.aced Kennedy Adair+0.5
2815-13TENNSTW ILL×5KillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
2916-13W ILLW ILL×5KillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.5
3017-13W ILLW ILL×5Attack errTriniti Jackson+0.4
3118-13W ILLW ILL×5Attack errTriniti Jackson+0.3
3219-13W ILLW ILL×5Attack errSydney Robinson+0.2
3319-14W ILLTENNSTAttack errKennedy Adair+0.1
3420-14TENNSTW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.1
3520-15W ILLTENNSTKillGabrielle Washingtonset Italya Carter+0.1
3621-15TENNSTW ILLAttack errCarsyn Stansberry+0.1
3721-16W ILLTENNSTKillSydney Robinsonset Triniti Jackson+0.1
3822-16TENNSTW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.1
3923-16W ILLW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.1
4023-17W ILLTENNSTAttack errGeorgia Haynes·
4124-17TENNSTW ILLKillJaleah Baussset Grace Ulatowski·
4224-18W ILLTENNST×3Serve errWestern Ill.·
4324-19TENNSTTENNST×3Attack errGeorgia Haynes·
4424-20TENNSTTENNST×3AceTennessee St.·
4525-20TENNSTW ILLServe errTennessee St.+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).