Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UT Martin def. Western Ill. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Ill. 59.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UT Martin won at Western Ill. 3-1 (25-20, 25-23, 22-25, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Rylee Key led UT Martin with 12 kills; Western Ill.'s Kennedy Adair had a match-high 21.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
UT MAR252522253
W ILL202325171

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 13–17 in the second, UT Martin took the set, dropped the third, and won the match 3–1.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UT Martin's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had Western Ill. at 59% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · UT Martin 22–22 Western Ill.

    UT Martin won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–0.

    UT Martin 62% → 84%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · UT Martin 4–1 Western Ill.

    Down 1–4, Western Ill. scored 10 straight to lead 11–4.

    UT Martin 89% → 73%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 3 · UT Martin 22–21 Western Ill.

    Western Ill. scored 4 straight to turn a 21–22 deficit into a 25–22 lead.

    UT Martin 89% → 71%

Western Ill. above 50UT Martin belowMax swing 11.3%

UT MartinWestern Ill.

Sideout %
UT Martin 55.8·Western Ill. 49.0
Break %
UT Martin 51.0·Western Ill. 44.2
Hitting
UT Martin .180·Western Ill. .129
Longest run
UT Martin 5·Western Ill. 10

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Ill. above 50 · UT Martin below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.3% UT MARrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.3% to UT Martin — set 2, UT MAR 25-23 W ILL. Bad set by Madelyn Norton. W ILL win probability 28% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UT MAR 59.2%40.8% W ILL

UT Martin wins

3-0
16.8%
3-1
22.6%
3-2
19.8%

Western Ill. wins

3-0
9.0%
3-1
14.9%
3-2
16.9%
UT MAR break %
45.0% vs this opp
W ILL break %
43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Madelyn NortonBad set+11.3%

    Bad set by Madelyn Norton

    Set 2 · UT MAR 25-23 W ILL · UT MAR 72% → 84%

  2. 02
    Emilia KouriAttack error+10.9%

    Attack error by Emilia Kouri

    Set 2 · UT MAR 24-23 W ILL · UT MAR 61% → 72%

  3. 03
    Carly MuellerKill+6.8%

    Kill by Carly Mueller (set by Dylan Sulcer)

    Set 2 · UT MAR 22-22 W ILL · UT MAR 55% → 62%

  4. 04
    Kennedy AdairKill+6.6%

    Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Karlie Lane)

    Set 2 · UT MAR 22-23 W ILL · W ILL 38% → 45%

  5. 05
    Carly MuellerKill+6.4%

    Kill by Carly Mueller (set by Dylan Sulcer)

    Set 2 · UT MAR 23-23 W ILL · UT MAR 55% → 61%

  6. 06

    Riley Rushing stuffed by Emilia Kouri & Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella

    Set 3 · UT MAR 22-23 W ILL · W ILL 15% → 21%

  7. 07

    Carly Mueller stuffed by Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella

    Set 2 · UT MAR 20-22 W ILL · W ILL 43% → 49%

  8. 08

    Ace by Kennedy Adair on Lauren Mariscal

    Set 3 · UT MAR 22-24 W ILL · W ILL 21% → 26%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412427.2960120102114
410528.17900021010.510.5
48420.20000000031.59.5
47320.2000221010009
47110.6003710700219
2125-.200000000001
4000–020500002
4000–020400002
4002.0004122030001
3000–000000000
24212.167100000215
2137-.286000110001
1022-1.000000000000
Team totals5026133.18042964912010597
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421339.46205010210127
48522.136000200008
47725.00000374010.57.5
42113.077142001017
4127-.143000003456
4102.50018131000002
41711-.54500020031.52.5
4002.000011600001
4000–1110300001
4001.000400200000
4000–100500000
1002.000000000000
1000–100000000
Team totals4125124.1293612947958985

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UT Martin vs Western Ill.

Season series · UT Martin leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UT MAR · W ILL 10

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 UT MARW ILL 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 UT MARW ILL 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 UT MARW ILL 10

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 UT MARW ILL 4

Bars above the line = Western Ill. leads, below = UT Martin leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UT Martin

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
42%5/12
2
36%9/25
64%16/25
3
50%9/18
36%5/14
4
53%8/15
57%12/21
5
88%7/8
53%8/15
6
86%6/7
33%3/9
All
56%48/86
51%49/96

Western Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%9/24
27%3/11
2
60%9/15
44%7/16
3
56%9/16
63%15/24
4
36%8/22
47%8/17
5
55%6/11
42%5/12
6
75%6/8
0%0/6
All
49%47/96
44%38/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#UT MAR-W ILLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UT MARUT MARAttack errKennedy Adair+2.4
22-0UT MARUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
32-1UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.9
43-1W ILLUT MARAttack errAshlee Markert+2.0
53-2UT MARW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+1.9
64-2W ILLUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.0
74-3UT MARW ILL×4Serve errUT Martin+1.9
84-4W ILLW ILL×4BlockedMaddy Gladsonblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Emilia Kouri+2.5
94-5W ILLW ILL×4AceWestern Ill.aced Lauren Mariscal+2.5
104-6W ILLW ILL×4KillAshlee Markert+2.5
115-6W ILLUT MAR×4KillMaddy Gladsonset Lauren Mariscal+1.9
126-6UT MARUT MAR×4KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+2.6
137-6UT MARUT MAR×4BlockedEmilia Kouriblk Dylan Sulcer, Carly Mueller+2.7
148-6UT MARUT MAR×4AceUT Martin+2.8
158-7UT MARW ILLKillEmilia Kouriset Madelyn Norton+2.1
169-7W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+2.3
179-8UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+2.2
1810-8W ILLUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
1910-9UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+2.2
2011-9W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.5
2111-10UT MARW ILL×3KillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+2.3
2211-11W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Maddy Gladson+3.0
2311-12W ILLW ILL×3Attack errLuli Arcucci+3.1
2412-12W ILLUT MAR×3Attack errAshlee Markert+2.5
2513-12UT MARUT MAR×3AceUT Martinaced Ashlee Markert+3.3
2614-12UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errAshlee Markert+3.4
2714-13UT MARW ILLAttack errMaddy Gladson+2.5
2814-14W ILLW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+3.4
2915-14W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.9
3016-14UT MARUT MARAttack errAshlee Markert+3.7
3116-15UT MARW ILLAttack errCarly Mueller+2.7
3216-16W ILLW ILLAttack errSophie Diouf+3.8
3317-16W ILLUT MAR×4KillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+3.3
3418-16UT MARUT MAR×4Bad setMadelyn Norton+4.1
3519-16UT MARUT MAR×4Attack errAshlee Markert+3.8
3620-16UT MARUT MAR×4KillDylan Sulcerset Madelyn Norton+3.2
3720-17UT MARW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+1.8
3821-17W ILLUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+2.6
3922-17UT MARUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+2.2
4022-18UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.9
4123-18W ILLUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+1.6
4224-18UT MARUT MARAceUT Martinaced Kennedy Adair+0.9
4324-19UT MARW ILLAttack errRylee Key+0.2
4424-20W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.+0.4
4525-20W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+0.8
Set 2
11-0W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+2.1
22-0UT MARUT MARKillSophie Dioufset Dylan Sulcer+2.7
32-1UT MARW ILLAttack errLuli Arcucci+2.1
43-1W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+2.2
53-2UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.1
64-2W ILLUT MARBad setAshlee Markert+2.2
75-2UT MARUT MARAttack errGeorgia Haynes+2.8
85-3UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.0
96-3W ILLUT MARBlockedEmilia Kouriblk Maddy Gladson, Carly Mueller+2.3
106-4UT MARW ILLBlockedCarly Muellerblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Emilia Kouri+2.1
117-4W ILLUT MARBlockedMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellablk Carly Mueller, Dylan Sulcer+2.3
127-5UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+2.1
138-5W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
148-6UT MARW ILL×3KillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+2.2
158-7W ILLW ILL×3Attack errLuli Arcucci+2.9
168-8W ILLW ILL×3BlockedSophie Dioufblk Hillary Estes+3.1
179-8W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.6
1810-8UT MARUT MARKillRylee Keyset Karlie Lane+3.3
1910-9UT MARW ILL×5KillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.5
2010-10W ILLW ILL×5Attack errMaddy Gladson+3.3
2110-11W ILLW ILL×5KillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski+3.3
2210-12W ILLW ILL×5KillKennedy Adair+3.2
2310-13W ILLW ILL×5AceWestern Ill.aced Luli Arcucci+3.0
2411-13W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+2.2
2511-14UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Karlie Lane+2.5
2612-14W ILLUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+2.3
2712-15UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+2.6
2813-15W ILLUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.3
2913-16UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+2.7
3013-17W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.+2.8
3114-17W ILLUT MARKillDylan Sulcerset Penny Kirkham+1.9
3214-18UT MARW ILLServe errUT Martin+2.3
3315-18W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+1.8
3415-19UT MARW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Karlie Lane+2.4
3516-19W ILLUT MAR×4Serve errWestern Ill.+1.8
3617-19UT MARUT MAR×4Bad setJaleah Bauss+3.1
3718-19UT MARUT MAR×4Attack errGeorgia Haynes+4.1
3819-19UT MARUT MAR×4KillMaddy Gladsonset Lauren Mariscal+5.0
3919-20UT MARW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Karlie Lane+4.4
4020-20W ILLUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+4.4
4120-21UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+4.8
4220-22W ILLW ILLBlockedCarly Muellerblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+5.8
4321-22W ILLUT MARKillChyler Martinset Dylan Sulcer+3.8
4422-22UT MARUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+6.8
4522-23UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Karlie Lane+6.6
4623-23W ILLUT MAR×3KillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+6.4
4724-23UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errEmilia Kouri+10.9
4825-23UT MARUT MAR×3Bad setMadelyn Norton+11.3
Set 3
11-0UT MARUT MARAttack errHillary Estes+1.9
22-0UT MARUT MARAceUT Martinaced Ashlee Markert+1.9
32-1UT MARW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+1.5
43-1W ILLUT MARServe errWestern Ill.+1.6
54-1UT MARUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.0
64-2UT MARW ILL×10Attack errChyler Martin+1.5
74-3W ILLW ILL×10KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.9
84-4W ILLW ILL×10AceWestern Ill.aced Chyler Martin+2.0
94-5W ILLW ILL×10AceWestern Ill.+2.0
104-6W ILLW ILL×10AceWestern Ill.aced Lauren Mariscal+2.0
114-7W ILLW ILL×10BlockedChyler Martinblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+1.9
124-8W ILLW ILL×10Attack errChyler Martin+1.7
134-9W ILLW ILL×10AceWestern Ill.aced Rylee Key+1.5
144-10W ILLW ILL×10BlockedRylee Keyblk Kennedy Adair+1.3
154-11W ILLW ILL×10KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.0
165-11W ILLUT MAR×3KillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+0.6
176-11UT MARUT MAR×3KillCarly Mueller+1.0
187-11UT MARUT MAR×3AcePenny Kirkhamaced Ashlee Markert+1.3
197-12UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+1.2
208-12W ILLUT MAR×3KillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+1.1
219-12UT MARUT MAR×3AcePenny Kirkham+1.6
2210-12UT MARUT MAR×3AceAbby Freundaced Ashlee Markert+1.9
2310-13UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+1.7
2410-14W ILLW ILLAceKennedy Adair+1.9
2511-14W ILLUT MAR×3KillDylan Sulcer+1.3
2612-14UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errEmilia Kouri+2.0
2713-14UT MARUT MAR×3AceLuli Arcucci+2.4
2813-15UT MARW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Madelyn Norton+2.1
2914-15W ILLUT MARAttack errEmilia Kouri+2.0
3014-16UT MARW ILLServe errLauren Mariscal+2.2
3115-16W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.1
3215-17UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+2.3
3316-17W ILLUT MAR×3KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+2.2
3417-17UT MARUT MAR×3BlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Riley Rushing, Rylee Key+3.2
3518-17UT MARUT MAR×3KillRiley Rushingset Lauren Mariscal+3.5
3618-18UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.7
3718-19W ILLW ILLAttack errMaddy Gladson+3.6
3819-19W ILLUT MARServe errHillary Estes+2.9
3920-19UT MARUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+4.1
4020-20UT MARW ILLKillJaleah Bauss+3.2
4120-21W ILLW ILLAttack errRiley Rushing+4.4
4221-21W ILLUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Lauren Mariscal+3.5
4322-21UT MARUT MARAttack errKennedy Adair+5.2
4422-22UT MARW ILL×4KillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+4.0
4522-23W ILLW ILL×4BlockedRiley Rushingblk Emilia Kouri, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+5.9
4622-24W ILLW ILL×4AceKennedy Adairaced Lauren Mariscal+5.6
4722-25W ILLW ILL×4AceKennedy Adair+3.2
Set 4
11-0W ILLUT MAR×5KillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.8
22-0UT MARUT MAR×5Attack errAshlee Markert+3.5
33-0UT MARUT MAR×5AceDylan Sulceraced Kennedy Adair+3.5
44-0UT MARUT MAR×5KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+3.4
55-0UT MARUT MAR×5KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+3.2
65-1UT MARW ILLServe errLuli Arcucci+2.2
76-1W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.6
86-2UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+2.2
96-3W ILLW ILLAttack errCarly Mueller+3.1
107-3W ILLUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.9
118-3UT MARUT MARKillDylan Sulcerset Riley Rushing+3.3
128-4UT MARW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+2.3
139-4W ILLUT MARKillDylan Sulcerset Madelyn Norton+2.7
149-5UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+2.3
1510-5W ILLUT MARAttack errEmilia Kouri+2.7
1610-6UT MARW ILLBlockedRylee Keyblk Ashlee Markert, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+2.3
1711-6W ILLUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.8
1812-6UT MARUT MARAttack errEmilia Kouri+2.9
1912-7UT MARW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+1.9
2013-7W ILLUT MAR×3KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
2114-7UT MARUT MAR×3KillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
2215-7UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errGeorgia Haynes+1.8
2315-8UT MARW ILLServe errLuli Arcucci+1.0
2415-9W ILLW ILLAttack errRylee Key+1.6
2516-9W ILLUT MARBlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Riley Rushing, Rylee Key+1.8
2617-9UT MARUT MARAttack errKennedy Adair+1.6
2717-10UT MARW ILL×3Serve errRylee Key+0.8
2817-11W ILLW ILL×3Attack errMaddy Gladson+1.4
2917-12W ILLW ILL×3KillGeorgia Haynesset Hillary Estes+2.0
3018-12W ILLUT MARServe errHillary Estes+2.3
3118-13UT MARW ILL×4KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+1.5
3218-14W ILLW ILL×4Attack errDylan Sulcer+2.6
3318-15W ILLW ILL×4Attack errMia Saenz+3.5
3418-16W ILLW ILL×4BlockedMia Saenzblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+4.5
3519-16W ILLUT MAR×4KillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+4.5
3620-16UT MARUT MAR×4KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+4.7
3721-16UT MARUT MAR×4KillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+3.4
3822-16UT MARUT MAR×4Attack errMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+2.1
3922-17UT MARW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Alysia Perez+0.8
4023-17W ILLUT MAR×3KillDylan Sulcerset Alysia Perez+1.4
4124-17UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errAshlee Markert+0.7
4225-17UT MARUT MAR×3KillDylan Sulcerset Alysia Perez+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UT Martin first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).