FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

3:0

HomeMETRO

Saint Louis def. Merrimack 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ST LOU	25	25	28	3
MERMCK	18	19	26	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERMCK above 50 · ST LOU below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Merrimack — set 3, ST LOU 23-24 MERMCK. Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Devon Lowe). MERMCK win probability 2% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ST LOU 94.2%5.8% MERMCK

Saint Louis wins

3-0

53.2%

3-1

30.3%

3-2

10.7%

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.7%

3-1

1.7%

3-2

3.5%

ST LOU break %: 52.0% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Tamilore AfolaluKill+1.1%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Devon Lowe)
Set 3 · ST LOU 23-24 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 3%
02
Anna AlexanderKill+1.1%
Kill by Anna Alexander (set by Jetta Brenning)
Set 3 · ST LOU 24-24 MERMCK · ST LOU 97% → 98%
03
Tamia MaddoxAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Tamia Maddox
Set 3 · ST LOU 24-25 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 3%
04
MERMCK serverService error+1.1%
Merrimack service error
Set 3 · ST LOU 25-25 MERMCK · ST LOU 97% → 98%
05
Anna BoatnerKill+1.1%
Kill by Anna Boatner
Set 3 · ST LOU 26-25 MERMCK · ST LOU 98% → 99%
06
ST LOU serverService error+0.9%
Saint Louis service error
Set 3 · ST LOU 26-26 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 2%
07
MERMCK serverService error+0.9%
Merrimack service error
Set 3 · ST LOU 27-26 MERMCK · ST LOU 98% → 99%
08
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.9%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 3 · ST LOU 22-23 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Louisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Tea KalajdzicOH	3	15	3	25	.480	0	1	0	2	1	0	3	1.5	17.5
12Tamia MaddoxOH	3	7	5	18	.111	2	2	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
15Anna BoatnerMB	3	5	1	12	.333	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	8
14Jetta BrenningS	3	3	1	8	.250	23	1	0	17	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Kayla JansenMB	3	1	0	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
19Ellie RinkOH	2	2	0	9	.222	0	1	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Lucy RankinS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
23Lara ZigicL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
11Anna AlexanderOH	2	8	3	15	.333	1	2	2	2	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
7Avery BoehmOH	2	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Athena TsalapatanisDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Justina AsamoaMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
16J'La SparksMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	15	99	.273	35	8	10	38	3	2	14	9	78

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	11	6	32	.156	0	2	0	7	1	0	0	13
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	9	3	23	.261	1	0	0	2	0	2	1	10
13Mia IzzoMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	3
1Naomi VajdaMB	3	1	1	3	.000	0	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	0	1	2	-.500	16	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
7Tamilore Afolalu	2	5	4	14	.071	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0
14Maiella Blandin	2	3	1	9	.222	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
20Devon Lowe	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
9Avry BryantOPP	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Vaia TsioutsioulasOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
19Elizabeth KenneyS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
15Gabrielle Moore	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Natalia Zelubowski	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	18	94	.138	29	3	7	39	8	6	3	63

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ST LOU · MERMCK 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 ST LOUMERMCK 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 ST LOUMERMCK 4

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 3 ST LOUMERMCK 5

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Saint Louis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Louis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	68%13/19
2	58%7/12	42%5/12
3	78%7/9	42%5/12
4	64%7/11	42%5/12
5	78%7/9	42%5/12
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	63%41/65	49%37/76

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	37%7/19	46%6/13
2	54%7/13	53%8/15
3	54%7/13	13%1/8
4	70%7/10	22%2/9
5	50%6/12	36%4/11
6	56%5/9	33%3/9
All	51%39/76	37%24/65

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	ST LOU-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Bad set	Jetta Brenning		+0.8
2	1-1	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
3	2-1	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen	+0.6
4	2-2	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.6
5	3-2	MERMCK	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
6	4-2	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.6
7	5-2	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.5
8	5-3	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.4
9	6-3	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.4
10	7-3	ST LOU	ST LOU	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+0.4
11	7-4	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.4
12	8-4	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.4
13	9-4	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Avry Bryant		+0.3
14	9-5	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.3
15	10-5	MERMCK	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
16	11-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
17	12-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Lara Zigic	+0.2
18	12-6	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Devon Lowe	+0.1
19	12-7	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Team	+0.2
20	13-7	MERMCK	ST LOU×4	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
21	14-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Team	+0.2
22	15-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.1
23	16-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Team	+0.1
24	16-8	ST LOU	MERMCK×5	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.0
25	16-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
26	16-10	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
27	16-11	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ellie Rink	+0.2
28	16-12	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.3
29	17-12	MERMCK	ST LOU	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic	+0.3
30	17-13	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.3
31	18-13	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Lara Zigic	+0.3
32	19-13	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.3
33	19-14	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
34	20-14	MERMCK	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Justina Asamoa, Jetta Brenning	+0.2
35	21-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Tamia Maddox	+0.1
36	22-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.1
37	23-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Naomi Vajda	blk Justina Asamoa	+0.0
38	23-15	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.0
39	23-16	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
40	24-16	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.0
41	24-17	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.0
42	24-18	MERMCK	MERMCK	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
43	25-18	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Anna Boatner	+0.4
2	2-0	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
3	3-0	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
4	4-0	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Anna Boatner		+0.2
5	4-1	ST LOU	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+0.2
6	4-2	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Tea Kalajdzic	+0.3
7	4-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.4
8	4-4	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo	+0.5
9	5-4	MERMCK	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Anna Alexander	+0.4
10	6-4	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander		+0.4
11	7-4	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lara Zigic	+0.3
12	7-5	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.3
13	8-5	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lara Zigic	+0.3
14	9-5	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
15	9-6	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
16	9-7	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Anna Alexander		+0.4
17	10-7	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Kayla Jansen	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
18	10-8	ST LOU	MERMCK×4	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.3
19	10-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Anna Alexander		+0.5
20	10-10	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.6
21	10-11	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.7
22	11-11	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.6
23	12-11	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.6
24	12-12	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+0.6
25	12-13	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Jetta Brenning		+0.8
26	13-13	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.6
27	13-14	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.7
28	14-14	MERMCK	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.7
29	15-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.7
30	16-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Sienna Franks	+0.6
31	17-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Anna Boatner, Tamia Maddox	+0.5
32	18-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Anna Boatner	+0.4
33	19-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Sophia DeBonis		+0.3
34	19-15	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.2
35	20-15	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
36	20-16	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
37	21-16	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
38	21-17	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
39	22-17	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
40	22-18	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
41	23-18	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Avery Boehm	set Lucy Rankin	+0.2
42	24-18	ST LOU	ST LOU	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Team	+0.1
43	24-19	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.0
44	25-19	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
2	1-1	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
3	1-2	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
4	1-3	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Lara Zigic	+0.3
5	2-3	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
6	2-4	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
7	3-4	MERMCK	ST LOU	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Tea Kalajdzic, Anna Boatner	+0.2
8	3-5	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
9	4-5	MERMCK	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Maiella Blandin	blk Kayla Jansen, Anna Alexander	+0.2
10	5-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Team	+0.2
11	6-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.2
12	6-6	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Anna Alexander		+0.2
13	7-6	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Lara Zigic	+0.2
14	8-6	ST LOU	ST LOU	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.2
15	8-7	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.2
16	8-8	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.3
17	9-8	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.2
18	9-9	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+0.2
19	10-9	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Tamia Maddox	+0.2
20	11-9	ST LOU	ST LOU	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.2
21	11-10	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
22	12-10	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
23	13-10	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lara Zigic	+0.2
24	13-11	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
25	13-12	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Anna Boatner		+0.3
26	14-12	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander		+0.2
27	14-13	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Kayla Jansen		+0.2
28	15-13	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
29	15-14	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.2
30	16-14	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
31	17-14	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.2
32	17-15	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.2
33	18-15	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
34	18-16	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.2
35	19-16	MERMCK	ST LOU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.2
36	19-17	ST LOU	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+0.2
37	19-18	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Avery Boehm		+0.4
38	19-19	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Avery Boehm		+0.5
39	19-20	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Avery Boehm	blk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.6
40	19-21	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.7
41	20-21	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
42	20-22	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.7
43	21-22	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
44	22-22	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Lara Zigic	+0.8
45	22-23	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.9
46	23-23	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
47	23-24	ST LOU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+1.1
48	24-24	MERMCK	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+1.1
49	24-25	ST LOU	MERMCK	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+1.1
50	25-25	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+1.1
51	26-25	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Boatner		+1.1
52	26-26	ST LOU	MERMCK	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.9
53	27-26	MERMCK	ST LOU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.9
54	28-26	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Tea Kalajdzic, Anna Boatner	+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Saint Louis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.