Final · 5 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Louis def. Davidson 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Louis 50.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Louis beat visiting Davidson 3-2 (25-21, 20-25, 18-25, 25-22, 15-8) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Tamia Maddox led Saint Louis with 14 kills; Davidson's Elena Garcia-Guerrios had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set12345Sets
DAVID2125252282
ST LOU25201825153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Saint Louis took the fifth 15–8 to finish off Davidson.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Saint Louis's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Saint Louis 50% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Davidson 15–15 Saint Louis

    Saint Louis scored 5 straight to go from 15–15 to a 20–15 lead.

    Saint Louis 51% → 67%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Davidson 0–0 Saint Louis

    Saint Louis opened the set with 4 straight points for a 4–0 lead. The match swung to Saint Louis.

    Saint Louis 49% → 82%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Davidson 3–5 Saint Louis

    4 straight Saint Louis points stretched a 5–3 lead to 9–3.

    Saint Louis 71% → 95%

Saint Louis above 50Davidson belowMax swing 8.8%

DavidsonSaint Louis

Sideout %
Davidson 56.3·Saint Louis 57.4
Break %
Davidson 42.6·Saint Louis 43.7
Hitting
Davidson .210·Saint Louis .231
Longest run
Davidson 8·Saint Louis 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Louis above 50 · Davidson below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+8.8% ST LOUrally 204 · set 5

Biggest swing: 8.8% to Saint Louis — set 5, DAVID 0-1 ST LOU. Kill by Anna Boatner. ST LOU win probability 49% → 58%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAVID 46.9%53.1% ST LOU

Davidson wins

3-0
11.2%
3-1
17.4%
3-2
18.2%

Saint Louis wins

3-0
13.8%
3-1
20.1%
3-2
19.2%
DAVID break %
41.8% vs this opp
ST LOU break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Anna BoatnerKill+8.8%

    Kill by Anna Boatner

    Set 5 · DAVID 0-1 ST LOU · ST LOU 49% → 58%

  2. 02
    Tamia MaddoxKill+8.7%

    Kill by Tamia Maddox (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 5 · DAVID 0-2 ST LOU · ST LOU 58% → 66%

  3. 03
    Elena Garcia-GuerriosAttack error+8.2%

    Attack error by Elena Garcia-Guerrios

    Set 5 · DAVID 0-3 ST LOU · ST LOU 66% → 75%

  4. 04

    Elena Garcia-Guerrios stuffed by Kayla Jansen & Tea Kalajdzic

    Set 5 · DAVID 3-7 ST LOU · ST LOU 77% → 85%

  5. 05
    Tea KalajdzicAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Tea Kalajdzic

    Set 5 · DAVID 3-5 ST LOU · DAVID 22% → 29%

  6. 06
    Anna BoatnerKill+7.2%

    Kill by Anna Boatner (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 5 · DAVID 0-4 ST LOU · ST LOU 75% → 82%

  7. 07
    Tea KalajdzicKill+6.5%

    Kill by Tea Kalajdzic (set by Anna Boatner)

    Set 5 · DAVID 3-6 ST LOU · ST LOU 71% → 77%

  8. 08
    Ellie OcampoAttack error+6.0%

    Attack error by Ellie Ocampo

    Set 5 · DAVID 3-8 ST LOU · ST LOU 85% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520765.2001249002123
514335.3140002002115
513644.159214131010.514.5
511324.33310010031.512.5
5114.0004531140031.55.5
2112.00000000010.51.5
5000–6212200002
5000–011200001
5023-.667002810000
2102.50000000031.52.5
2002.00000000010.50.5
Team totals6123181.210559137120168101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514635.22941116200015
513834.14700090031.514.5
512023.5221001004214
511936.056111141010.512.5
511226.3460012002112
54115.20049001200215
5000–7022120000
5000–0001100000
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6526169.23162258690126103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Davidson vs Saint Louis

Season series · Saint Louis leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 DAVID · ST LOU 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 DAVIDST LOU 5

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 3 DAVIDST LOU 2

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 DAVIDST LOU 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 8 DAVIDST LOU 5

Set 5

8-15

Longest run 3 DAVIDST LOU 4

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Davidson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
44%7/16
2
63%10/16
40%8/20
3
59%10/17
44%8/18
4
75%9/12
55%11/20
5
50%9/18
40%6/15
6
40%8/20
25%3/12
All
56%58/103
43%43/101

Saint Louis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
52%11/21
2
65%11/17
35%6/17
3
59%10/17
44%8/18
4
43%9/21
29%4/14
5
69%9/13
50%9/18
6
54%7/13
47%7/15
All
57%58/101
44%45/103

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

204 rallies

#DAVID-ST LOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.8
21-1DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.8
32-1ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.9
43-1DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidsonaced Lara Zigic+2.6
53-2DAVIDST LOU×3Attack errMia Compas+1.8
63-3ST LOUST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+2.6
73-4ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Lara Zigic+2.7
84-4ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.9
95-4DAVIDDAVIDAttack errTea Kalajdzic+2.8
105-5DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.0
116-5ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.0
127-5DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidsonaced Tamia Maddox+2.8
137-6DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+2.0
147-7ST LOUST LOUBlockedMeile Songailablk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen+2.9
158-7ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTamia Maddox+2.2
168-8DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.1
178-9ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+3.1
189-9ST LOUDAVID×3KillMyla Youngset Kinsey Smith+2.2
1910-9DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errEllie Rink+3.2
2011-9DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidsonaced Ellie Rink+3.2
2111-10DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.2
2212-10ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.4
2312-11DAVIDST LOU×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.2
2412-12ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Tea Kalajdzic, Anna Boatner+3.4
2512-13ST LOUST LOU×3AceTamia Maddoxaced Meile Songaila+3.5
2613-13ST LOUDAVIDServe errTamia Maddox+2.5
2713-14DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.7
2814-14ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.6
2914-15DAVIDST LOUAttack errEllie Ocampo+2.8
3015-15ST LOUDAVIDAttack errEllie Rink+2.8
3115-16DAVIDST LOU×5Serve errDavidson+2.9
3215-17ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errMia Compas+4.0
3315-18ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errMeile Songaila+3.6
3415-19ST LOUST LOU×5KillJetta Brenningset Meile Songaila+3.0
3515-20ST LOUST LOU×5KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.2
3616-20ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.0
3716-21DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.5
3816-22ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.2
3917-22ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+0.4
4018-22DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+0.9
4118-23DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.2
4218-24ST LOUST LOUAttack errKinsey Smith+0.7
4319-24ST LOUDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.1
4420-24DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerrios+0.3
4521-24DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Elena Garcia-Guerrios+0.7
4621-25DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.3
Set 2
10-1DAVIDST LOUAttack errMyla Young+1.8
21-1ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.8
31-2DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.9
42-2ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.8
53-2DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Meile Songaila+2.6
63-3DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.9
74-3ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.9
85-3DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.7
95-4DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.9
105-5ST LOUST LOUAceEllie Rinkaced Ellie Ocampo+2.7
116-5ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.0
126-6DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Tamia Maddox+2.0
137-6ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
148-6DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidson+2.9
158-7DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.0
169-7ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
179-8DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.0
1810-8ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.2
1910-9DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.1
2010-10ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.1
2111-10ST LOUDAVIDAttack errEllie Rink+2.4
2212-10DAVIDDAVIDAttack errKayla Jansen+3.3
2312-11DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.2
2413-11ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.4
2513-12DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.3
2614-12ST LOUDAVID×3KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.5
2715-12DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Mia Compas, Kinsey Smith+3.3
2816-12DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidson+2.8
2916-13DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.6
3016-14ST LOUST LOUAttack errMia Compas+2.9
3117-14ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTamia Maddox+2.5
3217-15DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.1
3318-15ST LOUDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.6
3419-15DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.0
3520-15DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Meile Songaila, Myla Young+2.2
3620-16DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.0
3721-16ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.5
3821-17DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.9
3921-18ST LOUST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.9
4022-18ST LOUDAVID×3Serve errLara Zigic+2.2
4123-18DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errKayla Jansen+1.7
4224-18DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedEllie Rinkblk Ariyana Johnson, Mia Compas+0.7
4324-19DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.1
4424-20ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.3
4525-20ST LOUDAVIDAttack errEllie Rink+0.5
Set 3
11-0ST LOUDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnsonset Brooke Briscoe+2.4
22-0DAVIDDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+3.4
33-0DAVIDDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnsonset Brooke Briscoe+3.2
44-0DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Melanie Tilles, Elena Garcia-Guerrios+3.0
55-0DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidson+2.8
65-1DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.7
75-2ST LOUST LOUBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Ellie Rink, Anna Boatner+2.8
86-2ST LOUDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.3
97-2DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidson+2.8
108-2DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errEllie Rink+2.4
118-3DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.4
129-3ST LOUDAVIDAttack errEllie Rink+1.8
1310-3DAVIDDAVIDBlockedEllie Rinkblk Mia Compas, Kinsey Smith+2.0
1410-4DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.1
1510-5ST LOUST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.0
1611-5ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.8
1712-5DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.9
1812-6DAVIDST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Tamia Maddox+1.0
1912-7ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errMeile Songaila+1.9
2012-8ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errMeile Songaila+2.4
2113-8ST LOUDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.2
2214-8DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Kinsey Smith, Melanie Tilles+2.4
2315-8DAVIDDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.8
2415-9DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.9
2515-10ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.7
2616-10ST LOUDAVIDServe errKayla Jansen+1.7
2716-11DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+1.2
2817-11ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.7
2917-12DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.1
3018-12ST LOUDAVIDBlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Melanie Tilles, Elena Garcia-Guerrios+1.6
3118-13DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.0
3219-13ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.5
3320-13DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Mia Compas+1.3
3420-14DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+0.5
3520-15ST LOUST LOUAttack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+1.1
3621-15ST LOUDAVIDKillKinsey Smithset Meile Songaila+1.3
3721-16DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+0.7
3822-16ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.1
3922-17DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.5
4022-18ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.3
4123-18ST LOUDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.6
4224-18DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidsonaced Tamia Maddox+0.9
4325-18DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidsonaced Lara Zigic+0.2
Set 4
10-1DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.4
20-2ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.4
31-2ST LOUDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+2.3
41-3DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.5
51-4ST LOUST LOUAttack errAriyana Johnson+3.3
62-4ST LOUDAVIDServe errLara Zigic+2.2
72-5DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.4
82-6ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.1
93-6ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.0
103-7DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.3
114-7ST LOUDAVIDServe errEllie Rink+2.1
124-8DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.3
135-8ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
145-9DAVIDST LOU×5KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.4
155-10ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errMeile Songaila+2.9
165-11ST LOUST LOU×5KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+2.4
175-12ST LOUST LOU×5KillEllie Rinkset Tamia Maddox+1.9
185-13ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedMeile Songailablk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic+1.4
196-13ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTea Kalajdzic+0.7
206-14DAVIDST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+1.0
216-15ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+0.9
226-16ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.6
237-16ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.2
247-17DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+0.4
258-17ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.2
268-18DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.3
279-18ST LOUDAVID×8KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.2
2810-18DAVIDDAVID×8KillMia Compas+0.4
2911-18DAVIDDAVID×8Attack errJetta Brenning+0.6
3012-18DAVIDDAVID×8Attack errTea Kalajdzic+0.9
3113-18DAVIDDAVID×8KillElena Garcia-Guerrios+1.4
3214-18DAVIDDAVID×8KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
3315-18DAVIDDAVID×8KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+3.0
3416-18DAVIDDAVID×8KillMia Compasset Brooke Briscoe+4.0
3516-19DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.7
3617-19ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.9
3717-20DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+3.8
3818-20ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.9
3918-21DAVIDST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+4.0
4018-22ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+4.0
4118-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.3
4219-23ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.6
4319-24DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.3
4420-24ST LOUDAVID×3BlockedEllie Rinkblk Ariyana Johnson, Cayla Weisner+0.3
4521-24DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Brooke Briscoe+1.0
4622-24DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errTea Kalajdzic+2.4
4722-25DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+2.9
Set 5
10-1ST LOUST LOU×4KillAnna Boatner+8.8
20-2ST LOUST LOU×4KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+8.7
30-3ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+8.2
40-4ST LOUST LOU×4KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+7.2
51-4ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+4.4
61-5DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+5.3
72-5ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+4.4
83-5DAVIDDAVIDAttack errTea Kalajdzic+7.6
93-6DAVIDST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Anna Boatner+6.5
103-7ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic+7.7
113-8ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errEllie Ocampo+6.0
123-9ST LOUST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+4.2
134-9ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTamia Maddox+1.9
144-10DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+2.8
155-10ST LOUDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.6
166-10DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.6
177-10DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+5.5
187-11DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+5.8
197-12ST LOUST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Tamia Maddox+5.1
208-12ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTamia Maddox+1.8
218-13DAVIDST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+3.2
228-14ST LOUST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.7
238-15ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Jetta Brenning, Anna Boatner+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Davidson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).