Final · 4 setsSat, Nov 7, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Louis def. Davidson 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Louis 50.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Louis beat visiting Davidson 3-1 (25-23, 25-27, 25-17, 25-18) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. Ellie Rink led Saint Louis with 15 kills; Davidson's Ariyana Johnson had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Nov 7

Set1234Sets
DAVID232717181
ST LOU252525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ellie Rink hit .378 on 37 swings as Saint Louis edged Davidson.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Saint Louis's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Saint Louis went in as RallyIQ's 51% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Davidson 23–21 Saint Louis

    Down 21–23, Saint Louis scored 3 straight to lead 24–23.

    Saint Louis 57% → 78%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Davidson 24–24 Saint Louis

    Davidson won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 27–25 and level the match at 1–1.

    Saint Louis 71% → 51%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 3 · Davidson 6–2 Saint Louis

    Down 2–6, Saint Louis scored 7 straight to lead 9–6. The match swung to Saint Louis.

    Saint Louis 38% → 62%

Saint Louis above 50Davidson belowMax swing 10.0%

DavidsonSaint Louis

Sideout %
Davidson 51.5·Saint Louis 60.5
Break %
Davidson 39.5·Saint Louis 48.5
Hitting
Davidson .212·Saint Louis .353
Longest run
Davidson 7·Saint Louis 7

Ellie Rink
2 kills inside the turning points, 15 K and .378 for the match (18.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Louis above 50 · Davidson below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.0% DAVIDrally 185 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Davidson — set 2, DAVID 27-25 ST LOU. Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith). ST LOU win probability 61% → 51%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAVID 46.9%53.1% ST LOU

Davidson wins

3-0
11.2%
3-1
17.4%
3-2
18.2%

Saint Louis wins

3-0
13.8%
3-1
20.1%
3-2
19.2%
DAVID break %
41.8% vs this opp
ST LOU break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ariyana JohnsonKill+10.0%

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 2 · DAVID 27-25 ST LOU · DAVID 39% → 49%

  2. 02
    Ariyana JohnsonKill+10.0%

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 2 · DAVID 25-24 ST LOU · DAVID 29% → 39%

  3. 03

    Meile Songaila stuffed by Anna Boatner & Tea Kalajdzic

    Set 2 · DAVID 23-24 ST LOU · ST LOU 68% → 78%

  4. 04
    Anna BoatnerKill+7.6%

    Kill by Anna Boatner (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 2 · DAVID 23-23 ST LOU · ST LOU 60% → 68%

  5. 05
    Anna BoatnerKill+7.3%

    Kill by Anna Boatner (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 1 · DAVID 23-25 ST LOU · ST LOU 62% → 70%

  6. 06
    Tamia MaddoxKill+7.3%

    Kill by Tamia Maddox (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 2 · DAVID 25-25 ST LOU · ST LOU 61% → 68%

  7. 07
    Tamia MaddoxService error+7.3%

    Service error by Tamia Maddox

    Set 2 · DAVID 26-25 ST LOU · DAVID 32% → 39%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 2 · DAVID 24-24 ST LOU · DAVID 22% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4201145.20000190031.521.5
413641.17100210202114
410216.5001000012212
47423.130000210007
4204.500000300424
4115.000441140010.52.5
4003.0003301020003
4000–321900002
4000–012200001
2000–000100000
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5324137.2125177505112785
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415137.37841195132.518.5
412525.28001000153.516.5
413526.30811291010.514.5
48112.58310210174.512.5
49016.563460180031.510.5
47420.15000000052.59.5
4000–5202010002
3000–003200000
3000–000400000
2000–000000000
Team totals6416136.353575953732415100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Davidson vs Saint Louis

Season series · Saint Louis leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DAVID · ST LOU 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 DAVIDST LOU 3

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 7 DAVIDST LOU 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 5 DAVIDST LOU 7

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 2 DAVIDST LOU 3

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Davidson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
53%10/19
2
48%10/21
52%11/21
3
40%8/20
29%4/14
4
73%8/11
20%2/10
5
44%7/16
27%3/11
6
50%7/14
36%4/11
All
52%51/99
40%34/86

Saint Louis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%11/27
47%8/17
2
59%10/17
31%5/16
3
75%9/12
63%15/24
4
100%8/8
50%8/16
5
54%7/13
46%6/13
6
78%7/9
46%6/13
All
60%52/86
48%48/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#DAVID-ST LOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ST LOUST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.5
20-2ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errAriyana Johnson+2.5
30-3ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Tea Kalajdzic+2.4
41-3ST LOUDAVIDKillCayla Weisnerset Kinsey Smith+1.6
51-4DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+1.8
61-5ST LOUST LOUAceTamia Maddoxaced Ellie Ocampo+2.3
72-5ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.5
82-6DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.7
93-6ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.5
103-7DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.7
113-8ST LOUST LOUBlockedMia Compasblk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink+2.1
124-8ST LOUDAVIDKillKinsey Smithset Ellie Ocampo+1.3
134-9DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.5
145-9ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.3
156-9DAVIDDAVIDBlockedTamia Maddoxblk Cayla Weisner, Kinsey Smith+2.2
166-10DAVIDST LOU×3KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.8
176-11ST LOUST LOU×3KillJetta Brenningset Kayla Jansen+2.2
186-12ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedMeile Songailablk Jetta Brenning, Anna Boatner+1.8
197-12ST LOUDAVIDServe errKayla Jansen+1.0
208-12DAVIDDAVIDAttack errAnna Boatner+1.8
218-13DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatner+1.6
229-13ST LOUDAVIDBlockedAnna Boatnerblk Ariyana Johnson, Cayla Weisner+1.3
2310-13DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.2
2410-14DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.0
2510-15ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.2
2611-15ST LOUDAVID×4Serve errTamia Maddox+1.3
2712-15DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.3
2813-15DAVIDDAVID×4AceBrooke Briscoeaced Lara Zigic+2.8
2914-15DAVIDDAVID×4KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+3.4
3014-16DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.8
3114-17ST LOUST LOUBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink+3.5
3215-17ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.1
3316-17DAVIDDAVIDBlockedKayla Jansenblk Mia Compas+3.6
3416-18DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.1
3517-18ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.8
3617-19DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+3.3
3717-20ST LOUST LOUBlockedMeile Songailablk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen+4.0
3818-20ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.2
3918-21DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+3.0
4018-22ST LOUST LOUAttack errAriyana Johnson+3.0
4119-22ST LOUDAVIDServe errKayla Jansen+1.2
4219-23DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.1
4320-23ST LOUDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.9
4421-23DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errTea Kalajdzic+2.5
4522-23DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errTamia Maddox+4.6
4622-24DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+5.5
4723-24ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.1
4823-25DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+7.3
Set 2
11-0DAVIDDAVID×7AceEllie Ocampoaced Ellie Rink+2.5
22-0DAVIDDAVID×7AceEllie Ocampoaced Ellie Rink+2.5
33-0DAVIDDAVID×7Attack errTea Kalajdzic+2.4
44-0DAVIDDAVID×7KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+2.3
55-0DAVIDDAVID×7KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+2.1
66-0DAVIDDAVID×7KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Ellie Ocampo+1.8
77-0DAVIDDAVID×7AceEllie Ocampoaced Ellie Rink+1.5
87-1DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+0.9
97-2ST LOUST LOUBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic+1.5
108-2ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.3
119-2DAVIDDAVIDAttack errTea Kalajdzic+1.5
129-3DAVIDST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.8
139-4ST LOUST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.5
149-5ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Tea Kalajdzic, Kayla Jansen+1.8
159-6ST LOUST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+2.2
1610-6ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.8
1710-7DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.6
1811-7ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.9
1911-8DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+1.6
2012-8ST LOUDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
2113-8DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.2
2214-8DAVIDDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.8
2314-9DAVIDST LOU×3Serve errDavidson+1.0
2414-10ST LOUST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.8
2514-11ST LOUST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.3
2615-11ST LOUDAVIDServe errAnna Alexander+2.0
2715-12DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+1.6
2816-12ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
2916-13DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.6
3017-13ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Ellie Ocampo+2.1
3118-13DAVIDDAVIDAceBrooke Briscoeaced Ellie Rink+2.3
3218-14DAVIDST LOU×3Serve errDavidson+1.1
3318-15ST LOUST LOU×3AceLara Zigicaced Ellie Ocampo+2.2
3418-16ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Tea Kalajdzic, Kayla Jansen+3.0
3519-16ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.8
3619-17DAVIDST LOU×3KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.2
3719-18ST LOUST LOU×3KillKayla Jansen+4.0
3819-19ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errAriyana Johnson+4.8
3920-19ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.9
4020-20DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+3.8
4121-20ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+4.3
4221-21DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+4.2
4322-21ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+4.9
4423-21DAVIDDAVIDAceKinsey Smithaced Tamia Maddox+6.5
4523-22DAVIDST LOU×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Tamia Maddox, Anna Boatner+3.3
4623-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+7.6
4723-24ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedMeile Songailablk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic+10.0
4824-24ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+7.2
4925-24DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+10.0
5025-25DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+7.3
5126-25ST LOUDAVIDServe errTamia Maddox+7.3
5227-25DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+10.0
Set 3
10-1ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddox+3.4
21-1ST LOUDAVID×5Serve errJetta Brenning+2.4
32-1DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errTea Kalajdzic+3.4
43-1DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errAnna Boatner+3.4
54-1DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Ariyana Johnson, Mia Compas+3.3
65-1DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Ariyana Johnson, Mia Compas+3.1
75-2DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.0
86-2ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.3
96-3DAVIDST LOU×7Serve errDavidson+2.0
106-4ST LOUST LOU×7KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.2
116-5ST LOUST LOU×7BlockedKinsey Smithblk Ellie Rink+3.5
126-6ST LOUST LOU×7KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.7
136-7ST LOUST LOU×7AceLara Zigicaced Elena Garcia-Guerrios+3.9
146-8ST LOUST LOU×7Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+3.8
156-9ST LOUST LOU×7BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+3.7
167-9ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.4
177-10DAVIDST LOUServe errDavidson+2.7
187-11ST LOUST LOUAttack errMia Compas+3.4
198-11ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
208-12DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Tamia Maddox+2.5
218-13ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+3.0
229-13ST LOUDAVID×3Serve errEllie Rink+1.7
2310-13DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.0
2411-13DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.6
2511-14DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+3.0
2612-14ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.7
2712-15DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Ellie Rink+3.1
2813-15ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.7
2913-16DAVIDST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+3.3
3013-17ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.8
3114-17ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.2
3214-18DAVIDST LOUAttack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.8
3315-18ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Brooke Briscoe+2.1
3416-18DAVIDDAVIDKillMia Compas+4.0
3516-19DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.7
3616-20ST LOUST LOUKillKayla Jansen+4.0
3717-20ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.0
3817-21DAVIDST LOU×5KillJetta Brenning+2.9
3917-22ST LOUST LOU×5KillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+2.6
4017-23ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errAriyana Johnson+1.3
4117-24ST LOUST LOU×5AceEllie Rinkaced Meile Songaila+0.4
4217-25ST LOUST LOU×5KillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+0.1
Set 4
10-1DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.4
21-1ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.4
31-2DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.5
42-2ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.5
52-3DAVIDST LOUBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic+2.5
62-4ST LOUST LOUAceTea Kalajdzicaced Elena Garcia-Guerrios+3.5
73-4ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Mia Compas+2.4
83-5DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.6
94-5ST LOUDAVIDAttack errTamia Maddox+2.5
104-6DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.6
115-6ST LOUDAVIDServe errAnna Alexander+2.5
125-7DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+2.7
136-7ST LOUDAVIDKillCayla Weisnerset Kinsey Smith+2.6
147-7DAVIDDAVIDBlockedAnna Boatnerblk Cayla Weisner, Elena Garcia-Guerrios+3.8
157-8DAVIDST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.9
167-9ST LOUST LOUAttack errAriyana Johnson+3.9
178-9ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.7
188-10DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.9
198-11ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.8
209-11ST LOUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.5
219-12DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.8
229-13ST LOUST LOUBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Kayla Jansen+3.5
2310-13ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.2
2410-14DAVIDST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.6
2511-14ST LOUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.2
2612-14DAVIDDAVIDAceAdlee Grissettaced Ellie Rink+3.7
2712-15DAVIDST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+3.1
2812-16ST LOUST LOUBlockedMeile Songailablk Anna Boatner, Jetta Brenning+3.7
2913-16ST LOUDAVIDServe errAnna Alexander+2.2
3013-17DAVIDST LOU×3Serve errDavidson+2.8
3113-18ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errAriyana Johnson+3.0
3213-19ST LOUST LOU×3KillTamia Maddoxset Lara Zigic+2.1
3314-19ST LOUDAVIDBlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Cayla Weisner, Elena Garcia-Guerrios+0.9
3414-20DAVIDST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.4
3515-20ST LOUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.8
3616-20DAVIDDAVIDKillMia Compas+1.8
3716-21DAVIDST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.0
3816-22ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Lara Zigic+1.5
3916-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.7
4017-23ST LOUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+0.1
4118-23DAVIDDAVIDAttack errEllie Rink+0.4
4218-24DAVIDST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.6
4318-25ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Davidson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).