Final · 5 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on ESPN+

SFA def. McNeese 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: SFA 91.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

SFA beat visiting McNeese 3-2 (25-15, 15-25, 25-17, 27-29, 15-12) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Molly Cravens led SFA with 19 kills; McNeese's Gabbie Maldonado had a match-high 23.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set12345Sets
MCNEES15251729122
SFA25152527153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Molly Cravens hit .432 on 37 swings as SFA edged McNeese.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are SFA's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave SFA 91% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · McNeese 26–26 SFA

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to McNeese, enough to take the set 29–27 and level the match at 2–2.

    SFA 90% → 71%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · McNeese 0–1 SFA

    3 straight McNeese points turned a 0–1 deficit into a 3–1 lead.

    SFA 78% → 55%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · McNeese 4–2 SFA

    3 straight SFA points turned a 2–4 deficit into a 5–4 lead.

    SFA 53% → 77%

SFA above 50McNeese belowMax swing 15.9%

McNeeseSFA

Sideout %
McNeese 57.0·SFA 62.2
Break %
McNeese 37.8·SFA 43.0
Hitting
McNeese .178·SFA .248
Longest run
McNeese 5·SFA 5

Katherine Holtman
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 12 K, .159, 13.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

SFA above 50 · McNeese below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+15.9% SFArally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 15.9% to SFA — set 5, MCNEES 11-12 SFA. Attack error by Gabbie Maldonado. SFA win probability 61% → 77%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MCNEES 9.8%90.2% SFA

McNeese wins

3-0
1.3%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
5.5%

SFA wins

3-0
44.9%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
13.8%
MCNEES break %
36.3% vs this opp
SFA break %
46.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Gabbie MaldonadoAttack error+15.9%

    Attack error by Gabbie Maldonado

    Set 5 · MCNEES 11-12 SFA · SFA 61% → 77%

  2. 02
    Aniston CollinsBad set+14.0%

    Bad set by Aniston Collins

    Set 5 · MCNEES 9-7 SFA · MCNEES 43% → 57%

  3. 03
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+13.1%

    Point SFA (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 5 · MCNEES 11-13 SFA · SFA 77% → 90%

  4. 04
    Caroline KahleKill+12.8%

    Kill by Caroline Kahle (set by Izzy Orton)

    Set 5 · MCNEES 9-9 SFA · SFA 51% → 63%

  5. 05
    Caroline KahleService error+12.0%

    Service error by Caroline Kahle

    Set 5 · MCNEES 11-10 SFA · MCNEES 38% → 50%

  6. 06
    Harmony SolesKill+11.3%

    Kill by Harmony Soles (set by Corynne Hausler)

    Set 4 · MCNEES 29-27 SFA · MCNEES 18% → 29%

  7. 07
    Carli BanksKill+10.7%

    Kill by Carli Banks (set by Sophia Tocmo)

    Set 5 · MCNEES 6-5 SFA · MCNEES 30% → 40%

  8. 08

    Kill by Gabbie Maldonado (set by Megan Grose)

    Set 5 · MCNEES 10-9 SFA · MCNEES 37% → 47%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523358.3450003002124
59726.0770015020211
57318.222100100429
54627-.074010141010.55.5
5215.20027101900003
5114.0001001500001
511232.2810006000011
53013.231000600003
5011-1.000210070010.50.5
5011-1.0007013030000
1126-.167000000001
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6127191.1785722106628698
SFAhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516250.28012120002119
512544.15900040031.513.5
512438.21160116002113
58224.25000000254.512.5
54313.077002101648
5000–28131300001
519337.4320002004221
5113.00029111100002
5000–012400001
5000–1012210000
2001.000010010001
2000–002000000
Team totals7220210.2486561393232214107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

McNeese vs SFA

Season series · SFA leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MCNEES · SFA 5

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 MCNEESSFA 5

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 MCNEESSFA 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 MCNEESSFA 4

Set 4

29-27

Longest run 3 MCNEESSFA 4

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 3 MCNEESSFA 3

Bars above the line = SFA leads, below = McNeese leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

McNeese

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
53%10/19
2
75%9/12
38%6/16
3
56%9/16
40%6/15
4
56%9/16
40%6/15
5
53%8/15
27%3/11
6
73%8/11
20%2/10
All
58%53/92
38%33/86

SFA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
36%5/14
2
64%9/14
50%9/18
3
56%9/16
44%7/16
4
64%9/14
40%6/15
5
73%8/11
40%6/15
6
89%8/9
43%6/14
All
62%53/86
42%39/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#MCNEES-SFASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SFAMCNEESBlockedAvery Koonsenblk Harmony Soles, Gabbie Maldonado+0.8
21-1MCNEESSFAAttack errAva Henry+0.7
32-1SFAMCNEESKillAva Henryset Megan Grose+0.8
42-2MCNEESSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+0.7
53-2SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+0.9
63-3MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+0.8
74-3SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+0.9
84-4MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Avery Koonsen+0.8
95-4SFAMCNEESKillHarmony Jacksonset Corynne Hausler+0.9
105-5MCNEESSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Harmony Jackson+0.8
115-6SFASFAAttack errCarli Banks+1.1
126-6SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Sophia Tocmo+0.8
136-7MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+0.8
147-7SFAMCNEESKillHarmony Solesset Megan Grose+0.9
157-8MCNEESSFAServe errMcNeese+0.8
168-8SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+0.9
178-9MCNEESSFA×3Attack errGaby Santiago+0.8
188-10SFASFA×3KillCaroline Kahle+1.1
198-11SFASFA×3Attack errAva Henry+0.9
209-11SFAMCNEESKillCarli Banksset Corynne Hausler+0.6
219-12MCNEESSFA×4KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+0.6
229-13SFASFA×4KillCaroline Kahleset Izzy Orton+0.7
239-14SFASFA×4AceSFAaced Sophia Tocmo+0.5
249-15SFASFA×4BlockedHarmony Jacksonblk Molly Cravens, Kyanna Creecy+0.4
2510-15SFAMCNEESKillAva Henryset Corynne Hausler+0.2
2610-16MCNEESSFA×5KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+0.3
2710-17SFASFA×5KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+0.2
2810-18SFASFA×5Attack errHarmony Jackson+0.1
2910-19SFASFA×5KillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+0.1
3010-20SFASFA×5BlockedKayla Wilsonblk Kyanna Creecy, Avery Koonsen·
3111-20SFAMCNEESKillHarmony Solesset Corynne Hausler·
3211-21MCNEESSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Izzy Orton·
3312-21SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose·
3412-22MCNEESSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Caroline Kahle·
3512-23SFASFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins·
3613-23SFAMCNEES×3KillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose·
3714-23MCNEESMCNEES×3KillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose·
3815-23MCNEESMCNEES×3KillAva Henryset Aniston Collins·
3915-24MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Cambry Saul·
4015-25SFASFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins·
Set 2
11-0MCNEESMCNEES×3KillMegan Groseset Megan Grose+0.8
22-0MCNEESMCNEES×3KillGabbie Maldonadoset Sophia Tocmo+0.9
33-0MCNEESMCNEES×3KillHarmony Solesset Megan Grose+0.9
43-1MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+0.6
54-1SFAMCNEESKillMegan Groseset Sophia Tocmo+0.7
64-2MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+0.6
75-2SFAMCNEES×3KillAva Henryset Megan Grose+0.7
86-2MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+1.1
97-2MCNEESMCNEES×3KillCarli Banksset Corynne Hausler+1.1
107-3MCNEESSFAAttack errAva Henry+0.6
118-3SFAMCNEESAttack errCaroline Kahle+0.8
129-3MCNEESMCNEESAttack errKyanna Creecy+1.1
139-4MCNEESSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Izzy Orton+0.6
1410-4SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+0.8
1510-5MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+0.6
1610-6SFASFAKillJordan Hendersonset Izzy Orton+0.9
1711-6SFAMCNEESKillHarmony Solesset Corynne Hausler+0.9
1811-7MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+0.6
1912-7SFAMCNEESKillHarmony Solesset Megan Grose+0.9
2013-7MCNEESMCNEESBlockedKatherine Holtmanblk Carli Banks, Harmony Soles+1.1
2113-8MCNEESSFA×5KillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+0.6
2213-9SFASFA×5BlockedGabbie Maldonadoblk Jordan Henderson, Caroline Kahle+0.9
2313-10SFASFA×5Attack errMegan Grose+1.1
2413-11SFASFA×5AceSFAaced Sophia Tocmo+1.1
2513-12SFASFA×5Attack errHarmony Soles+1.2
2614-12SFAMCNEES×5KillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.0
2715-12MCNEESMCNEES×5KillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.5
2816-12MCNEESMCNEES×5KillGabbie Maldonadoset Sophia Tocmo+1.4
2917-12MCNEESMCNEES×5KillGabbie Maldonadoset Sophia Tocmo+1.3
3018-12MCNEESMCNEES×5Serve errMcNeese+1.1
3118-13MCNEESSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+0.5
3219-13SFAMCNEES×3KillAva Henryset Megan Grose+0.8
3320-13MCNEESMCNEES×3KillGaby Santiagoset Corynne Hausler+0.7
3421-13MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+0.4
3521-14MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+0.1
3622-14SFAMCNEES×3BlockedKyanna Creecyblk Ava Henry+0.2
3723-14MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errMolly Cravens+0.1
3824-14MCNEESMCNEES×3AceMcNeeseaced Kennedy Jones·
3924-15MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton·
4025-15SFAMCNEESKillAva Henryset Corynne Hausler·
Set 3
11-0SFAMCNEESBlockedKyanna Creecyblk Gabbie Maldonado, Harmony Soles+1.5
21-1MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Megan Grose+1.4
31-2SFASFABlockedCarli Banksblk Jordan Henderson, Molly Cravens+1.8
42-2SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.4
53-2MCNEESMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+2.3
63-3MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.4
73-4SFASFABlockedAva Henryblk Avery Koonsen, Jordan Henderson+2.0
84-4SFAMCNEES×3Serve errAniston Collins+1.5
95-4MCNEESMCNEES×3KillAva Henryset Corynne Hausler+2.4
106-4MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+2.7
116-5MCNEESSFAAttack errAva Henry+1.7
127-5SFAMCNEESKillAva Henryset Corynne Hausler+2.1
137-6MCNEESSFAServe errMcNeese+1.8
148-6SFAMCNEESServe errBrinkley Reeves+2.1
158-7MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+1.8
168-8SFASFAAttack errSophia Tocmo+2.6
179-8SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+2.0
189-9MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.8
199-10SFASFABlockedHarmony Solesblk Kyanna Creecy, Molly Cravens+2.5
2010-10SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.9
2110-11MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+1.7
2211-11SFAMCNEESServe errKyanna Creecy+1.9
2311-12MCNEESSFA×4KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.8
2411-13SFASFA×4BlockedCarli Banksblk Jordan Henderson, Katherine Holtman+2.4
2511-14SFASFA×4KillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+1.9
2611-15SFASFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.5
2712-15SFAMCNEESServe errAniston Collins+0.9
2812-16MCNEESSFA×3Attack errCorynne Hausler+1.0
2912-17SFASFA×3KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+1.1
3012-18SFASFA×3KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+0.7
3113-18SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+0.3
3214-18MCNEESMCNEESKillHarmony Solesset Corynne Hausler+0.8
3314-19MCNEESSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+0.7
3415-19SFAMCNEESServe errCambry Saul+0.5
3516-19MCNEESMCNEESAceMcNeeseaced Cambry Saul+1.2
3616-20MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.1
3716-21SFASFAKillKyanna Creecyset Izzy Orton+1.0
3817-21SFAMCNEESServe errIzzy Orton+0.4
3917-22MCNEESSFA×4KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+0.6
4017-23SFASFA×4BlockedCarli Banksblk Molly Cravens, Kyanna Creecy+0.4
4117-24SFASFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+0.1
4217-25SFASFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton·
Set 4
11-0MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errCaroline Kahle+1.6
22-0MCNEESMCNEES×3KillMary-Alice Dohmannset Megan Grose+1.8
33-0MCNEESMCNEES×3KillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+2.0
43-1MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Izzy Orton+1.2
54-1SFAMCNEESKillMary-Alice Dohmannset Megan Grose+1.5
64-2MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.2
75-2SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.5
85-3MCNEESSFAKillIzzy Ortonset Caroline Kahle+1.2
96-3SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+1.6
106-4MCNEESSFA×3BlockedCarli Banksblk Jordan Henderson, Katherine Holtman+1.3
116-5SFASFA×3AceSFAaced Carli Banks+1.9
126-6SFASFA×3BlockedAva Henryblk Jordan Henderson+1.8
137-6SFAMCNEES×3KillKayla Wilsonset Sophia Tocmo+1.4
148-6MCNEESMCNEES×3KillCarli Banksset Gaby Santiago+2.2
159-6MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errCaroline Kahle+2.4
169-7MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+1.4
179-8SFASFAAceSFA+2.1
1810-8SFAMCNEESAttack errKatherine Holtman+1.7
1910-9MCNEESSFABlockedCarli Banksblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+1.4
2011-9SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.8
2112-9MCNEESMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Harmony Soles+2.7
2212-10MCNEESSFABlockedGabbie Maldonadoblk Kyanna Creecy, Caroline Kahle+1.5
2313-10SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+2.0
2413-11MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.6
2513-12SFASFAKillMolly Cravensset Caroline Kahle+2.4
2614-12SFAMCNEESServe errKyanna Creecy+2.1
2715-12MCNEESMCNEESAttack errJordan Henderson+3.0
2815-13MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+1.7
2915-14SFASFAKillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+2.7
3016-14SFAMCNEESServe errAniston Collins+2.3
3116-15MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.9
3217-15SFAMCNEESServe errAvery Koonsen+2.4
3317-16MCNEESSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+2.0
3417-17SFASFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+3.0
3518-17SFAMCNEESServe errBrinkley Reeves+2.5
3619-17MCNEESMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+3.9
3719-18MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.2
3820-18SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+3.1
3920-19MCNEESSFA×4KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+2.4
4020-20SFASFA×4BlockedHarmony Solesblk Kyanna Creecy+3.9
4120-21SFASFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+3.8
4220-22SFASFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+3.2
4321-22SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+1.9
4421-23MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+2.4
4522-23SFAMCNEESServe errLara Gilardi+1.9
4622-24MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+2.8
4723-24SFAMCNEESAttack errAvery Koonsen+1.6
4824-24MCNEESMCNEESBlockedJordan Hendersonblk Ava Henry+6.2
4924-25MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+4.5
5025-25SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+4.5
5125-26MCNEESSFABlockedKayla Wilsonblk Jordan Henderson+4.5
5226-26SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+4.5
5326-27MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+4.5
5427-27SFAMCNEES×3Attack errMolly Cravens+4.5
5528-27MCNEESMCNEES×3BlockedCaroline Kahleblk Harmony Soles, Corynne Hausler+7.9
5629-27MCNEESMCNEES×3KillHarmony Solesset Corynne Hausler+11.3
Set 5
10-1SFASFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+6.9
21-1SFAMCNEES×3KillMary-Alice Dohmannset Megan Grose+5.2
32-1MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errMolly Cravens+8.6
43-1MCNEESMCNEES×3Attack errIzzy Orton+9.7
53-2MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+5.9
64-2SFAMCNEESServe errLara Gilardi+7.4
74-3MCNEESSFA×3KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+6.2
84-4SFASFA×3KillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+9.1
94-5SFASFA×3Attack errAva Henry+8.4
105-5SFAMCNEESKillAva Henryset Corynne Hausler+6.3
116-5MCNEESMCNEESKillCarli Banksset Sophia Tocmo+10.7
126-6MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+6.9
137-6SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+8.3
147-7MCNEESSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+7.3
158-7SFAMCNEESKillKayla Wilsonset Corynne Hausler+8.9
169-7MCNEESMCNEESBad setAniston Collins+14.0
179-8MCNEESSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+8.0
189-9SFASFAKillCaroline Kahleset Izzy Orton+12.8
1910-9SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+10.7
2010-10MCNEESSFAKillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+9.4
2111-10SFAMCNEESServe errCaroline Kahle+12.0
2211-11MCNEESSFA×3KillMolly Cravensset Caroline Kahle+10.6
2311-12SFASFA×3Attack errGabbie Maldonado+15.9
2411-13SFA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+13.1
2512-13SFAMCNEESKillGabbie Maldonadoset Megan Grose+6.7
2612-14MCNEESSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+10.2
2712-15SFASFAAceSFAaced Sophia Tocmo+6.8

Score shown after each rally, McNeese first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).