FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomeMAC

Northern Ky. def. Miami (OH) 3–0

(25-20, 25-12, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
N KY	25	25	25	3
MIA OH	20	12	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MIA OH above 50 · N KY below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Northern Ky. — set 3, N KY 21-19 MIA OH. Kill by Katie Noschang (set by Abbigail Pickard). MIA OH win probability 12% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N KY 41.0%59.0% MIA OH

Northern Ky. wins

3-0

9.1%

3-1

15.0%

3-2

16.9%

Miami (OH) wins

3-0

16.7%

3-1

22.5%

3-2

19.8%

N KY break %: 42.6% vs this opp
MIA OH break %: 44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katie NoschangKill+4.3%
Kill by Katie Noschang (set by Abbigail Pickard)
Set 3 · N KY 21-19 MIA OH · N KY 88% → 92%
02
Sydney BrayKill+4.1%
Kill by Sydney Bray (set by Abbigail Pickard)
Set 3 · N KY 23-21 MIA OH · N KY 90% → 94%
03
Sydney BrayKill+4.0%
Kill by Sydney Bray
Set 3 · N KY 24-21 MIA OH · N KY 94% → 98%
04
Abbigail PickardKill+3.6%
Kill by Abbigail Pickard (set by Sydney Bray)
Set 3 · N KY 22-20 MIA OH · N KY 89% → 93%
05
Lauren CoyneKill+3.5%
Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 3 · N KY 18-18 MIA OH · MIA OH 12% → 15%
06
Ava HoyingKill+3.4%
Kill by Ava Hoying (set by Abbigail Pickard)
Set 3 · N KY 18-16 MIA OH · N KY 87% → 90%
07
Ivey StocksKill+3.4%
Kill by Ivey Stocks (set by Abbigail Pickard)
Set 3 · N KY 17-16 MIA OH · N KY 84% → 87%
08
Molly CreechAttack error+3.3%
Molly Creech stuffed by Ivey Stocks & Abbigail Pickard
Set 1 · N KY 15-12 MIA OH · N KY 48% → 51%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northern Ky.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Sydney BrayOH	3	8	3	18	.278	1	1	2	9	1	0	4	2	11
12Ivey StocksMB	3	8	2	20	.300	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
3Ava HoyingOH	3	7	3	20	.200	0	1	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
4Katie NoschangOH	3	3	1	7	.286	0	2	1	4	0	0	4	2	7
8Allison RisleyOH	3	3	0	7	.429	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	4
15Abbigail PickardS	3	1	0	3	.333	35	0	2	4	0	0	2	1	2
20Lucia HeidOH	3	10	3	26	.269	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10
9Emma AdkinsDS	3	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
13Daisy CluxtonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	14	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	13	106	.264	39	5	6	51	2	1	14	8	75

Miami (OH)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Molly CreechOH	3	12	6	43	.140	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	12
17Lauren CoyneOPP	3	3	3	18	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
13Grace KreutzOH	3	2	2	10	.000	1	1	2	8	1	0	0	0	3
15Lydia MichelinMB	3	2	2	4	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Raegan LantzOH	3	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Holland Van DeusenS	3	1	0	3	.333	17	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
7Chelsea WilliamsOH	3	7	3	23	.174	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
9Rachel MorganL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	13	2	0	0	0	0
12Sydney WallerOPP	2	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
10Madison BrownS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
16Piper WillingerS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Sophia StallworthOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Kendall BosseMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Maria InsanaDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Ria FurutaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	20	112	.089	29	2	6	45	5	2	4	4	53

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 N KY · MIA OH 3

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 5 N KYMIA OH 3

Set 2

25-12

Longest run 6 N KYMIA OH 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 N KYMIA OH 3

Bars above the line = Miami (OH) leads, below = Northern Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northern Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	57%8/14
2	67%6/9	63%10/16
3	86%6/7	45%5/11
4	55%6/11	45%5/11
5	75%6/8	45%5/11
6	63%5/8	50%5/10
All	67%37/55	52%38/73

Miami (OH)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	46%6/13
2	35%6/17	30%3/10
3	86%6/7	0%0/6
4	46%6/13	40%4/10
5	56%5/9	40%4/10
6	38%5/13	17%1/6
All	48%35/73	33%18/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	N KY-MIA OH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MIA OH	N KY	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+1.9
2	2-0	N KY	N KY	Ace	N KY server	aced Grace Kreutz	+2.5
3	2-1	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.8
4	2-2	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Sydney Bray	+2.4
5	3-2	MIA OH	N KY	Serve err	MIA OH server		+1.9
6	4-2	N KY	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.6
7	4-3	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.9
8	5-3	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.0
9	5-4	N KY	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.9
10	5-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Lucia Heid	blk Sydney Waller	+2.6
11	5-6	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Katie Noschang		+2.6
12	6-6	MIA OH	N KY	Serve err	MIA OH server		+2.0
13	7-6	N KY	N KY	Bad set	Madison Brown		+2.8
14	7-7	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+2.1
15	8-7	MIA OH	N KY	Attack err	Chelsea Williams	blk Sydney Bray, Katie Noschang	+2.2
16	8-8	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Sydney Waller	set Madison Brown	+2.2
17	8-9	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+2.9
18	9-9	MIA OH	N KY×4	Attack err	Sydney Waller	blk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang	+2.2
19	10-9	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Lydia Michelin	blk Sydney Bray, Ivey Stocks	+3.1
20	11-9	N KY	N KY×4	Ace	N KY server	aced Chelsea Williams	+3.1
21	12-9	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Sydney Waller		+3.0
22	12-10	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+2.1
23	12-11	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+3.0
24	13-11	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.6
25	13-12	N KY	MIA OH	Serve err	N KY server		+2.4
26	14-12	MIA OH	N KY×5	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.7
27	15-12	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Molly Creech	blk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard	+3.3
28	16-12	N KY	N KY×5	Ace	N KY server	aced Rachel Morgan	+3.0
29	17-12	N KY	N KY×5	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Daisy Cluxton	+2.5
30	18-12	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+1.9
31	18-13	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.9
32	19-13	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.4
33	19-14	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.9
34	19-15	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+1.6
35	20-15	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.8
36	21-15	N KY	N KY	Bad set	Madison Brown		+1.6
37	21-16	N KY	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Lucia Heid	blk Raegan Lantz, Sydney Waller	+0.6
38	21-17	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+1.3
39	21-18	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Rachel Morgan	+2.1
40	22-18	MIA OH	N KY	Serve err	MIA OH server		+2.5
41	22-19	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+1.4
42	23-19	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.4
43	24-19	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Sydney Waller		+1.5
44	24-20	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Piper Willinger	+0.3
45	25-20	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.7
Set 2
1	1-0	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Grace Kreutz		+2.7
2	2-0	N KY	N KY	Ace	N KY server	aced Molly Creech	+2.7
3	2-1	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.0
4	3-1	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Katie Noschang	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.1
5	4-1	N KY	N KY	Ace	N KY server	aced Rachel Morgan	+2.7
6	4-2	N KY	MIA OH	Serve err	N KY server		+2.0
7	5-2	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Allison Risley	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.2
8	5-3	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.0
9	5-4	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Ivey Stocks		+2.8
10	6-4	MIA OH	N KY×5	Serve err	MIA OH server		+2.3
11	7-4	N KY	N KY×5	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.9
12	8-4	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Molly Creech		+2.8
13	9-4	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Molly Creech		+2.5
14	10-4	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Grace Kreutz	blk Ivey Stocks	+2.2
15	10-5	N KY	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Lucia Heid		+1.4
16	10-6	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Ivey Stocks		+2.1
17	10-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Emma Adkins		+2.5
18	11-7	MIA OH	N KY×3	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.3
19	12-7	N KY	N KY×3	Attack err	Chelsea Williams	blk Katie Noschang, Abbigail Pickard	+2.6
20	13-7	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.2
21	13-8	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Piper Willinger	+1.3
22	14-8	MIA OH	N KY×4	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
23	15-8	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
24	16-8	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Emma Adkins	set Daisy Cluxton	+1.2
25	17-8	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Chelsea Williams	blk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray	+0.8
26	17-9	N KY	MIA OH×3	Serve err	N KY server		+0.4
27	17-10	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray	blk Lydia Michelin, Chelsea Williams	+0.7
28	17-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Bad set	Abbigail Pickard		+1.0
29	18-11	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.2
30	19-11	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+1.0
31	19-12	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
32	20-12	MIA OH	N KY×6	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.7
33	21-12	N KY	N KY×6	Attack err	Molly Creech	blk Sydney Bray, Ivey Stocks	+0.4
34	22-12	N KY	N KY×6	Attack err	Molly Creech		+0.2
35	23-12	N KY	N KY×6	Attack err	Sophia Stallworth		+0.1
36	24-12	N KY	N KY×6	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.0
37	25-12	N KY	N KY×6	Kill	Allison Risley	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Ava Hoying		+1.9
2	1-1	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.5
3	1-2	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Lydia Michelin	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.5
4	2-2	MIA OH	N KY	Attack err	Lydia Michelin		+1.5
5	2-3	N KY	MIA OH	Attack err	Ava Hoying	blk Lauren Coyne	+1.5
6	3-3	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
7	3-4	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.6
8	4-4	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
9	4-5	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
10	5-5	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
11	5-6	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.6
12	6-6	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
13	7-6	N KY	N KY	Kill	Sydney Bray		+2.3
14	7-7	N KY	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lydia Michelin	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.7
15	7-8	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+2.3
16	7-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Daisy Cluxton	+2.2
17	8-9	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
18	8-10	N KY	MIA OH	Attack err	Abbigail Pickard		+1.8
19	8-11	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Ava Hoying		+2.1
20	9-11	MIA OH	N KY	Bad set	Holland Van Deusen		+1.5
21	9-12	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Holland Van Deusen	set Grace Kreutz	+1.7
22	10-12	MIA OH	N KY	Serve err	MIA OH server		+1.5
23	10-13	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+1.7
24	11-13	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
25	12-13	N KY	N KY	Kill	Katie Noschang	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.4
26	12-14	N KY	MIA OH	Serve err	N KY server		+2.0
27	13-14	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.9
28	13-15	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.1
29	14-15	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Daisy Cluxton	+2.0
30	14-16	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Rachel Morgan	+2.2
31	15-16	MIA OH	N KY×4	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.1
32	16-16	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Allison Risley	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.1
33	17-16	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.4
34	18-16	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.4
35	18-17	N KY	MIA OH	Serve err	N KY server		+2.4
36	18-18	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+3.5
37	19-18	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.0
38	19-19	N KY	MIA OH	Serve err	N KY server		+2.9
39	20-19	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.3
40	21-19	N KY	N KY	Kill	Katie Noschang	set Abbigail Pickard	+4.3
41	21-20	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.7
42	22-20	MIA OH	N KY	Kill	Abbigail Pickard	set Sydney Bray	+3.6
43	22-21	N KY	MIA OH	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+2.9
44	23-21	MIA OH	N KY×3	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+4.1
45	24-21	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Sydney Bray		+4.0
46	25-21	N KY	N KY×3	Attack err	Molly Creech		+1.7

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.