Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northern Ky. def. NIU 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ky. 85.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ky. won at NIU 3-1 (27-25, 25-19, 22-25, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Northern Ky.'s Ava Hoying and Lucia Heid led with 14 kills each, and Daisy Cluxton added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
N KY272522253
NIU251925211

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Abbigail Pickard set 52 assists as Northern Ky. outlasted NIU.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Northern Ky.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Northern Ky. at 85%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Northern Ky. 20–16 NIU

    Down 16–20, NIU scored 7 straight to lead 23–20.

    Northern Ky. 91% → 70%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 1 · Northern Ky. 24–25 NIU

    3 straight Northern Ky. points turned a 24–25 deficit into a 27–25 lead.

    Northern Ky. 75% → 92%

NIU above 50Northern Ky. belowMax swing 7.6%

Northern Ky.NIU

Sideout %
Northern Ky. 59.3·NIU 54.1
Break %
Northern Ky. 45.9·NIU 40.7
Hitting
Northern Ky. .232·NIU .137
Longest run
Northern Ky. 6·NIU 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

NIU above 50 · Northern Ky. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.6% N KYrally 189 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.6% to Northern Ky. — set 1, N KY 24-24 NIU. Attack error by Rylea Alvin. NIU win probability 27% → 19%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

N KY 87.1%12.9% NIU

Northern Ky. wins

3-0
39.9%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.6%

NIU wins

3-0
1.8%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
7.0%
N KY break %
47.5% vs this opp
NIU break %
38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Rylea AlvinAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Rylea Alvin

    Set 1 · N KY 24-24 NIU · N KY 73% → 81%

  2. 02
    Ava GrevengoedAttack error+6.3%

    Attack error by Ava Grevengoed

    Set 1 · N KY 26-25 NIU · N KY 81% → 87%

  3. 03
    Rylea AlvinKill+5.4%

    Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Kylie Schulze)

    Set 1 · N KY 24-25 NIU · NIU 19% → 25%

  4. 04
    Sydney BrayKill+5.4%

    Kill by Sydney Bray (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 1 · N KY 25-25 NIU · N KY 75% → 81%

  5. 05

    Ava Grevengoed stuffed by Sydney Bray & Ivey Stocks

    Set 1 · N KY 27-25 NIU · N KY 87% → 92%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Kylie Schulze)

    Set 1 · N KY 22-24 NIU · NIU 25% → 30%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Delaney Steers)

    Set 1 · N KY 20-22 NIU · NIU 21% → 26%

  8. 08
    Katie NoschangAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Katie Noschang

    Set 1 · N KY 20-21 NIU · NIU 17% → 21%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414337.2970216012218
412427.296012182052.515.5
46521.0480111008411
47523.0870000014310
4319.222021830005
4115.00052001300212
414431.32300020031.515.5
41011.000000500001
4000–4002020000
11011.000000000001
Team totals5923155.23256657372241499
NIUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414744.15901017004217
411229.31001100052.514.5
411938.053100114111.512.5
47326.15412180031.510.5
48320.25000010052.510.5
4033-1.0002232800003
4205.4002200500002
4000–3001510000
3129-.111100000212
2011-1.000000000000
Team totals5430175.13750746561201190

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Northern Ky. vs NIU

Season series · Northern Ky. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 N KY · NIU 7

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 6 N KYNIU 7

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 N KYNIU 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 N KYNIU 5

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 5 N KYNIU 3

Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = Northern Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ky.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
62%13/21
2
56%10/18
41%7/17
3
67%10/15
44%8/18
4
47%9/19
36%5/14
5
67%8/12
31%4/13
6
58%7/12
53%8/15
All
59%54/91
46%45/98

NIU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
38%5/13
2
50%10/20
29%4/14
3
63%10/16
33%5/15
4
69%9/13
57%13/23
5
50%8/16
43%6/14
6
55%6/11
33%4/12
All
54%53/98
41%37/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#N KY-NIUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NIUNIUBlockedSydney Brayblk Rylea Alvin, Delaney Steers+1.6
21-1NIUN KYKillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
32-1N KYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
42-2N KYNIU×4KillRylea Alvinset Ava Grevengoed+1.1
52-3NIUNIU×4Attack errIvey Stocks+1.7
62-4NIUNIU×4Attack errIvey Stocks+1.8
72-5NIUNIU×4KillDelaney Steersset Ava Grevengoed+1.9
83-5NIUN KY×4KillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
94-5N KYN KY×4Attack errViktoria Djukic+1.7
105-5N KYN KY×4KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.7
116-5N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Ava Grevengoed+1.6
126-6N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
137-6NIUN KYAttack errViktoria Djukic+1.2
148-6N KYN KYKillEmma Adkinsset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
158-7N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+1.1
169-7NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
1710-7N KYN KYBlockedNaomi Dowdblk Katie Noschang, Lucia Heid+1.3
1810-8N KYNIU×4Bad setAbbigail Pickard+0.9
1910-9NIUNIU×4Attack errLucia Heid+1.6
2010-10NIUNIU×4KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+1.9
2110-11NIUNIU×4KillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+2.2
2211-11NIUN KY×6KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
2312-11N KYN KY×6Attack errAva Grevengoed+2.0
2413-11N KYN KY×6KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.8
2514-11N KYN KY×6AceNorthern Ky.aced Ava Grevengoed+1.5
2615-11N KYN KY×6KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
2716-11N KYN KY×6BlockedAva Grevengoedblk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray+0.9
2816-12N KYNIUServe errNorthern Ky.+0.5
2917-12NIUN KYAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.6
3017-13N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.5
3117-14NIUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Katie Pahl+1.0
3218-14NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
3318-15N KYNIUServe errNorthern Ky.+0.8
3419-15NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
3519-16N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+0.8
3620-16NIUN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
3720-17N KYNIU×7KillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+0.7
3820-18NIUNIU×7KillAva Grevengoed+1.6
3920-19NIUNIU×7KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+2.4
4020-20NIUNIU×7Attack errAbbigail Pickard+3.3
4120-21NIUNIU×7Attack errKatie Noschang+4.2
4220-22NIUNIU×7KillAva Grevengoedset Delaney Steers+4.6
4320-23NIUNIU×7KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+4.1
4421-23NIUN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
4522-23N KYN KYKillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+3.7
4622-24N KYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+4.7
4723-24NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+2.5
4824-24N KYN KYAttack errRylea Alvin+7.6
4924-25N KYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+5.4
5025-25NIUN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+5.4
5126-25N KYN KY×3Attack errAva Grevengoed+6.3
5227-25N KYN KY×3BlockedAva Grevengoedblk Sydney Bray, Ivey Stocks+5.2
Set 2
11-0N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
22-0N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
33-0N KYN KY×3KillAbbigail Pickardset Daisy Cluxton+0.8
43-1N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
54-1NIUN KY×4Attack errViktoria Djukic+0.6
65-1N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.+0.7
76-1N KYN KY×4Attack errDelaney Steers+0.6
87-1N KYN KY×4KillSydney Brayset Katie Noschang+0.4
97-2N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.3
107-3NIUNIUAceNIUaced Sydney Bray+0.5
118-3NIUN KY×3Attack errDelaney Steers+0.4
129-3N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Charlotte Gramzow+0.4
1310-3N KYN KY×3KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
1410-4N KYNIUBlockedIvey Stocksblk Autumn Flynn, Delaney Steers+0.2
1511-4NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
1612-4N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.aced Ava Grevengoed+0.2
1712-5N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.1
1812-6NIUNIUAceNIUaced Daisy Cluxton+0.3
1913-6NIUN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
2013-7N KYNIUAttack errKatie Noschang+0.2
2114-7NIUN KYBlockedKatie Pahlblk Lucia Heid, Katie Noschang+0.2
2214-8N KYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.2
2315-8NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
2416-8N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.aced Ava Grevengoed+0.2
2516-9N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.1
2617-9NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
2718-9N KYN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
2818-10N KYNIU×3KillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic·
2918-11NIUNIU×3BlockedIvey Stocksblk Autumn Flynn, Delaney Steers+0.1
3018-12NIUNIU×3KillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+0.2
3119-12NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
3219-13N KYNIU×4KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.1
3319-14NIUNIU×4Attack errAva Hoying+0.3
3419-15NIUNIU×4AceNIUaced Allison Risley+0.4
3519-16NIUNIU×4KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+0.7
3620-16NIUN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
3720-17N KYNIUServe errNorthern Ky.+0.5
3820-18NIUNIUBlockedLucia Heidblk Rylea Alvin, Lilly Abney+1.1
3921-18NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
4022-18N KYN KYKillEmory Guderianset Daisy Cluxton+1.0
4122-19N KYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+0.4
4223-19NIUN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
4324-19N KYN KY×3BlockedAva Grevengoedblk Sydney Bray, Katie Noschang+0.4
4425-19N KYN KY×3BlockedRylea Alvinblk Sydney Bray, Katie Noschang+0.1
Set 3
10-1NIUNIUBlockedAva Hoyingblk Katie Pahl, Rylea Alvin+0.6
20-2NIUNIUAttack errIvey Stocks+0.6
31-2NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
42-2N KYN KYBlockedDelaney Steersblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+0.6
52-3N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.4
63-3NIUN KYKillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
74-3N KYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
84-4N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.4
95-4NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
105-5N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.4
115-6NIUNIUAttack errKatie Noschang+0.7
126-6NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
136-7N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.5
147-7NIUN KYServe errNIU+0.5
157-8N KYNIUAttack errSydney Bray+0.5
168-8NIUN KYServe errNIU+0.5
179-8N KYN KYBlockedAva Grevengoedblk Sydney Bray, Ivey Stocks+0.6
189-9N KYNIUServe errNorthern Ky.+0.5
1910-9NIUN KYAttack errDelaney Steers+0.5
2010-10N KYNIUServe errNorthern Ky.+0.5
2111-10NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
2212-10N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
2312-11N KYNIUBlockedLucia Heidblk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn+0.5
2413-11NIUN KY×3BlockedDelaney Steersblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+0.5
2514-11N KYN KY×3KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
2615-11N KYN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
2715-12N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.3
2815-13NIUNIUBlockedKatie Noschangblk Ava Grevengoed+0.5
2916-13NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
3016-14N KYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Lilly Abney+0.4
3116-15NIUNIUBlockedSydney Brayblk Rylea Alvin, Ava Grevengoed+0.7
3217-15NIUN KYBlockedLilly Abneyblk Katie Noschang, Lucia Heid+0.6
3317-16N KYNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+0.6
3417-17NIUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
3517-18NIUNIU×5AceNIUaced Allison Risley+1.1
3617-19NIUNIU×5AceNIUaced Allison Risley+1.3
3717-20NIUNIU×5AceNIUaced Daisy Cluxton+1.2
3818-20NIUN KYServe errNIU+0.7
3918-21N KYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
4019-21NIUN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
4119-22N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
4220-22NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
4320-23N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.1
4421-23NIUN KYAttack errDelaney Steers+0.6
4521-24N KYNIUKillLilly Abneyset Kylie Schulze+1.1
4622-24NIUN KYAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.4
4722-25N KYNIUKillKylie Schulzeset Charlotte Gramzow+1.1
Set 4
11-0N KYN KY×5KillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+1.7
22-0N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
33-0N KYN KY×5KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
44-0N KYN KY×5BlockedKatie Pahlblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+1.2
55-0N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
65-1N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
75-2NIUNIUAttack errKatie Noschang+1.1
86-2NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
96-3N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
107-3NIUN KYAttack errDelaney Steers+0.9
117-4N KYNIU×3KillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+0.9
127-5NIUNIU×3BlockedAva Hoyingblk Lilly Abney, Autumn Flynn+1.5
137-6NIUNIU×3KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+1.8
148-6NIUN KYAttack errAva Grevengoed+1.3
158-7N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+1.4
169-7NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
1710-7N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Delaney Steers+1.7
1810-8N KYNIUKillKylie Schulzeset Charlotte Gramzow+1.2
1911-8NIUN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
2011-9N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
2112-9NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.3
2213-9N KYN KYKillKatie Noschangset Daisy Cluxton+1.4
2313-10N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
2414-10NIUN KYBlockedKatie Pahlblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+1.1
2515-10N KYN KYAttack errAutumn Flynn+1.1
2615-11N KYNIU×3KillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
2715-12NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Sydney Bray+1.3
2815-13NIUNIU×3BlockedSydney Brayblk Autumn Flynn, Delaney Steers+1.8
2916-13NIUN KYServe errNIU+1.5
3017-13N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
3117-14N KYNIUAttack errAllison Risley+1.0
3218-14NIUN KYBlockedLilly Abneyblk Ivey Stocks+1.2
3318-15N KYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+1.0
3419-15NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
3519-16N KYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+0.9
3620-16NIUN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
3720-17N KYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
3820-18NIUNIUBlockedLucia Heidblk Rylea Alvin, Katie Pahl+2.0
3921-18NIUN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.8
4021-19N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+1.4
4122-19NIUN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
4222-20N KYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+1.4
4323-20NIUN KYBlockedRylea Alvinblk Ava Hoying+2.0
4423-21N KYNIUKillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+1.2
4524-21NIUN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+2.0
4625-21N KYN KYAttack errAutumn Flynn+1.0

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).