Tarleton St. at West Virginia

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
TARLET	23	19	–	0
WVU	25	21	–	1

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

WVU above 50 · TARLET below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to West Virginia — set 1, TARLET 23-25 WVU. Kill by Maddy Mcgath (set by Alexis Finnvold). WVU win probability 94% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TARLET 7.7%92.3% WVU

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

West Virginia wins

3-0

48.7%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

12.4%

TARLET break %: 36.9% vs this opp
WVU break %: 47.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Maddy McgathKill+2.3%
Kill by Maddy Mcgath (set by Alexis Finnvold)
Set 1 · TARLET 23-25 WVU · WVU 94% → 96%
02
Nina HorningKill+2.3%
Kill by Nina Horning (set by Cassidy Bruns)
Set 1 · TARLET 21-23 WVU · WVU 92% → 94%
03
Breannah PetersonKill+2.0%
Kill by Breannah Peterson (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 1 · TARLET 19-19 WVU · TARLET 8% → 10%
04
Madison Natori rice-locketAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Madison Natori rice-locket
Set 1 · TARLET 21-22 WVU · WVU 90% → 92%
05
Breannah PetersonKill+1.9%
Kill by Breannah Peterson (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 1 · TARLET 21-21 WVU · TARLET 8% → 10%
06
Macie SmithKill+1.7%
Kill by Macie Smith
Set 1 · TARLET 20-21 WVU · WVU 90% → 92%
07
Madison Natori rice-locketKill+1.7%
Kill by Madison Natori rice-locket (set by Leddy rae Guinn)
Set 1 · TARLET 20-20 WVU · TARLET 8% → 10%
08
TARLET serverService error+1.5%
Tarleton St. service error
Set 1 · TARLET 19-20 WVU · WVU 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Tarleton St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
21Madison Natori rice-locketOH	2	4	3	12	.083	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	5
11Onita DavisMB	2	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
23Alyssa DinhMB	2	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Madison FrankMB	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
5Alexis MasseyS	2	0	0	0	–	11	2	1	4	0	0	0	2
3Laneah LaraOH	2	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
4Breannah PetersonOPP	2	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
14Jacqui McclainOH	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
13Kingsley MinusS	2	0	0	0	–	9	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
19Alexa EarleL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	1
1Aubrey AchesonL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Leila ParaoanOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Laci SchoenOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Taylynn BiggsMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Leddy rae GuinnDS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
18Peyton FadalS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	9	53	.245	22	5	4	21	5	2	1	42

West Virginiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Nina HorningOH	2	6	1	14	.357	0	2	3	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
22Maddy McgathMB	2	4	0	6	.667	0	3	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Anna BarrOH	2	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
7Mirjam karoliine KaskMB	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
5Alexis FinnvoldS	2	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
23Cassidy BrunsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
18Trinity SheridanOPP	2	7	2	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
20Macie SmithOH	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
0Lauren DuncanS	2	1	0	1	1.000	9	0	1	2	0	0	0	1
4Eily PainterL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Camille HuffMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Saar BertelsOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Lucie SmardovaL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Sophia FallahMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Tally GrissomL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Reagan TurkL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	4	2	0	0	0
21Nula AndersonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	8	58	.328	24	5	7	20	5	6	3	46

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 TARLET · WVU 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 TARLETWVU 4

Set 2*

19-21

Longest run 4 TARLETWVU 4

Bars above the line = West Virginia leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

88 rallies

Rally log

#	TARLET-WVU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Nina Horning	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.8
2	0-2	WVU	WVU×3	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Maddy Mcgath, Nina Horning	+0.7
3	0-3	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Maddy Mcgath		+0.6
4	1-3	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
5	2-3	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.8
6	2-4	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Nina Horning	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.5
7	3-4	WVU	TARLET	Serve err	WVU server		+0.6
8	3-5	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Nina Horning	set Lauren Duncan	+0.6
9	3-6	WVU	WVU	Attack err	Laneah Lara		+0.7
10	4-6	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Laneah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
11	5-6	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Macie Smith	+0.8
12	5-7	TARLET	WVU×4	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Reagan Turk	+0.6
13	5-8	WVU	WVU×4	Ace	WVU server	aced Laneah Lara	+0.7
14	5-9	WVU	WVU×4	Attack err	Laneah Lara	blk Trinity Sheridan, Mirjam karoliine Kask	+0.6
15	5-10	WVU	WVU×4	Ace	WVU server	aced Madison Natori rice-locket	+0.4
16	6-10	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui Mcclain	set Kingsley Minus	+0.3
17	7-10	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Macie Smith	+0.6
18	7-11	TARLET	WVU	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.4
19	8-11	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+0.4
20	9-11	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Macie Smith		+0.8
21	9-12	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Anna Barr	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.6
22	10-12	WVU	TARLET	Serve err	WVU server		+0.6
23	11-12	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori rice-locket	set Alexis Massey	+1.0
24	11-13	TARLET	WVU	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.8
25	12-13	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori rice-locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.8
26	12-14	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Anna Barr	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.8
27	13-14	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Anna Barr	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.9
28	13-15	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+0.9
29	14-15	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.9
30	14-16	TARLET	WVU×3	Kill	Nina Horning	set Lauren Duncan	+0.9
31	14-17	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Lauren Duncan		+1.0
32	14-18	WVU	WVU×3	Attack err	Jacqui Mcclain		+0.8
33	15-18	WVU	TARLET	Serve err	WVU server		+0.5
34	15-19	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Maddy Mcgath	set Lauren Duncan	+0.5
35	16-19	WVU	TARLET×4	Attack err	Trinity Sheridan	set Macie Smith	+0.5
36	17-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+1.0
37	18-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Macie Smith		+1.4
38	19-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Kingsley Minus	+2.0
39	19-20	TARLET	WVU	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.5
40	20-20	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori rice-locket	set Leddy rae Guinn	+1.7
41	20-21	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Macie Smith		+1.7
42	21-21	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Kingsley Minus	+1.9
43	21-22	TARLET	WVU×3	Attack err	Madison Natori rice-locket	set Alexa Earle	+2.0
44	21-23	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Nina Horning	set Cassidy Bruns	+2.3
45	21-24	WVU	WVU×3	Attack err	Onita Davis		+1.4
46	22-24	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.4
47	23-24	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced TEAM	+1.5
48	23-25	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Maddy Mcgath	set Alexis Finnvold	+2.3
Set 2
1	0-1	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Mirjam karoliine Kask	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.4
2	1-1	WVU	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori rice-locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.4
3	2-1	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	TARLET server	aced Reagan Turk	+0.7
4	3-1	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Leddy rae Guinn	+0.8
5	3-2	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Anna Barr	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.5
6	3-3	WVU	WVU	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
7	4-3	WVU	TARLET	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
8	4-4	TARLET	WVU	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.5
9	5-4	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.6
10	5-5	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Maddy Mcgath	set Madison Frank	+0.5
11	5-6	WVU	WVU	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
12	6-6	WVU	TARLET	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
13	7-6	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Trinity Sheridan		+0.8
14	7-7	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+0.5
15	7-8	WVU	WVU	Ace	WVU server	aced Madison Natori rice-locket	+0.7
16	8-8	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.6
17	8-9	TARLET	WVU	Attack err	Madison Natori rice-locket	blk Trinity Sheridan, Mirjam karoliine Kask	+0.5
18	9-9	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.6
19	10-9	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Mirjam karoliine Kask		+0.9
20	10-10	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Anna Barr	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.6
21	10-11	WVU	WVU	Attack err	Madison Natori rice-locket		+0.8
22	11-11	WVU	TARLET×4	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Kingsley Minus	+0.6
23	12-11	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Nina Horning	blk Breannah Peterson, Alyssa Dinh	+1.0
24	13-11	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+1.2
25	14-11	TARLET	TARLET×4	Ace	TARLET server	aced Reagan Turk	+1.3
26	14-12	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Anna Barr		+0.7
27	15-12	WVU	TARLET	Serve err	WVU server		+1.0
28	15-13	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Nina Horning	set Alexis Finnvold	+0.8
29	16-13	WVU	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui Mcclain	set Alexis Massey	+1.0
30	16-14	TARLET	WVU×4	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+0.8
31	16-15	WVU	WVU×4	Ace	WVU server	aced Madison Natori rice-locket	+1.2
32	16-16	WVU	WVU×4	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+1.2
33	16-17	WVU	WVU×4	Attack err	Jacqui Mcclain		+1.1
34	17-17	WVU	TARLET	Serve err	WVU server		+0.9
35	18-17	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+1.5
36	18-18	TARLET	WVU	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+1.0
37	19-18	WVU	TARLET	Attack err	Mirjam karoliine Kask	set Jacqui Mcclain	+1.2
38	19-19	TARLET	WVU×3	Kill	Trinity Sheridan	set Lauren Duncan	+1.1
39	19-20	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Anna Barr		+1.5
40	19-21	WVU	WVU×3	Kill	Macie Smith	set Reagan Turk	+1.2

Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.