Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northern Ky. def. Green Bay 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ky. 63.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ky. won at Green Bay 3-1 (14-25, 25-12, 25-19, 25-14) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Northern Ky.'s Ivey Stocks led with 12 kills, and Daisy Cluxton added 28 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
N KY142525253
GRNBAY251219141

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Northern Ky. won 45 of 88 points on its own serve.

Win probability never moved more than 3.1 points on one rally; Green Bay topped out at 57% in Set 1. Northern Ky. went in as RallyIQ's 63% pick.

Northern Ky.Green Bay
  • Break %+13.1 pts
    51.138.0

    Points won on own serve: 45 of 88 vs 27 of 71. Green Bay sided out 48.9% of the time.

  • Hitting+.086
    .228.142

    48 kills, 14 errors vs 45 kills, 22 errors.

  • Longest run+1
    65

    6 straight Northern Ky. points in the third set broke a 2–2 tie and made it 8–2. Final score of the set: 25–19.

Green Bay above 50Northern Ky. belowMax swing 3.1%

Northern Ky.Green Bay

Aces
Northern Ky. 6·Green Bay 5
Serve err
Northern Ky. 6·Green Bay 10
Blocks
Northern Ky. 8·Green Bay 64 BS · 8 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Northern Ky. 82·Green Bay 77

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Green Bay above 50 · Northern Ky. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.1% GRNBAYrally 159 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.1% to Green Bay — set 3, N KY 2-2 GRNBAY. Kill by Olivia Neumann (set by Alexa Hernandez). GRNBAY win probability 36% → 39%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

N KY 69.3%30.7% GRNBAY

Northern Ky. wins

3-0
22.8%
3-1
26.6%
3-2
19.9%

Green Bay wins

3-0
5.9%
3-1
10.8%
3-2
14.0%
N KY break %
46.1% vs this opp
GRNBAY break %
42.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Olivia Neumann (set by Alexa Hernandez)

    Set 3 · N KY 2-2 GRNBAY · GRNBAY 36% → 39%

  2. 02
    Sydney BrayKill+3.0%

    Kill by Sydney Bray (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 3 · N KY 4-2 GRNBAY · N KY 63% → 66%

  3. 03
    Sydney BrayBlock+3.0%

    Gillian Koning stuffed by Sydney Bray

    Set 3 · N KY 1-0 GRNBAY · N KY 60% → 63%

  4. 04
    Ashley SessKill+2.9%

    Kill by Ashley Sess (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 3 · N KY 2-0 GRNBAY · N KY 63% → 66%

  5. 05
    Gillian KoningAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Gillian Koning

    Set 3 · N KY 5-2 GRNBAY · N KY 66% → 69%

  6. 06
    Ivey StocksKill+2.8%

    Kill by Ivey Stocks (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 3 · N KY 21-17 GRNBAY · N KY 75% → 78%

  7. 07
    Lucia HeidKill+2.8%

    Kill by Lucia Heid (set by Daisy Cluxton)

    Set 3 · N KY 22-18 GRNBAY · N KY 76% → 78%

  8. 08
    Ashley SessKill+2.7%

    Kill by Ashley Sess (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 3 · N KY 23-19 GRNBAY · N KY 77% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412228.35700040132.514.5
410226.308113120212.513.5
49540.10001051010.510.5
4108.12539211800214
4208.2500001000002
1011-1.000101000000
410427.2220002000010
4409.44400000111.55.5
4000–3112810001
4002.000100320000
3000–010000001
Team totals4814149.228456682548889
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49236.19422050031.512.5
49441.122100121010.59.5
47416.18800020031.58.5
47523.087000200218
4419.33332111200216
4000–003900000
49637.0810125000010
4000–213100001
4000–1011120000
4000–3001610000
2000–000200000
1000–00000010.50.5
1000–000000000
Team totals4522162.14241510776012670

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Northern Ky. vs Green Bay

Season series · Northern Ky. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 N KY · GRNBAY 5

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 N KYGRNBAY 5

Set 2

25-12

Longest run 5 N KYGRNBAY 2

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 6 N KYGRNBAY 3

Set 4

25-14

Longest run 3 N KYGRNBAY 3

Bars above the line = Green Bay leads, below = Northern Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ky.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
57%8/14
2
62%8/13
60%12/20
3
67%8/12
53%9/17
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
70%7/10
38%5/13
6
83%5/6
50%5/10
All
62%44/71
51%45/88

Green Bay

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
40%4/10
2
31%8/26
43%6/14
3
67%8/12
43%6/14
4
57%8/14
33%4/12
5
70%7/10
33%4/12
6
33%4/12
33%3/9
All
49%43/88
38%27/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

159 rallies

#N KY-GRNBAYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Katie Noschang+2.2
21-1N KYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.8
31-2GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Daisy Cluxton+2.4
42-2GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+1.8
52-3N KYGRNBAY×3Serve errNorthern Ky.+1.9
62-4GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.5
72-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Attack errAva Hoying+2.5
83-5GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Daisy Cluxton+1.8
93-6N KYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.0
104-6GRNBAYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
114-7N KYGRNBAYAttack errIvey Stocks+2.1
125-7GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
135-8N KYGRNBAY×3Serve errNorthern Ky.+2.1
145-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Attack errKatie Noschang+2.5
155-10GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+2.3
166-10GRNBAYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
176-11N KYGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.9
187-11GRNBAYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
197-12N KYGRNBAY×4KillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.9
207-13GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillKelsey Justmanset Riley Schmitz+2.1
217-14GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillKirsten Fishset Riley Schmitz+1.7
227-15GRNBAYGRNBAY×4BlockedSydney Brayblk Diane Pichelman, Kelsey Justman+1.3
238-15GRNBAYN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
249-15N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.aced Kelsey Justman+1.2
259-16N KYGRNBAY×3KillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
269-17GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.1
279-18GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.7
2810-18GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
2910-19N KYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
3011-19GRNBAYN KY×3Attack errGillian Koning+0.3
3112-19N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
3213-19N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Kennedy Schmitz+0.8
3313-20N KYGRNBAY×5KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.0
3413-21GRNBAYGRNBAY×5AceGreen Bayaced Emma Adkins+0.7
3513-22GRNBAYGRNBAY×5KillGillian Koning+0.3
3613-23GRNBAYGRNBAY×5AceGreen Bayaced Emma Adkins+0.1
3713-24GRNBAYGRNBAY×5BlockedLucia Heidblk Olivia Neumann, Alexa Hernandez·
3814-24GRNBAYN KYKillAbbigail Pickardset Sydney Bray·
3914-25N KYGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Macy Kline·
Set 2
11-0GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+2.0
22-0N KYN KYKillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+2.5
32-1N KYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.0
43-1GRNBAYN KY×4Serve errGreen Bay+2.0
54-1N KYN KY×4BlockedKirsten Fishblk Ivey Stocks+2.4
65-1N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.+2.2
76-1N KYN KY×4Bad setAlexa Hernandez+1.9
86-2N KYGRNBAYAttack errIvey Stocks+1.4
96-3GRNBAYGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Diane Pichelman+2.1
107-3GRNBAYN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.8
118-3N KYN KY×3Attack errDiane Pichelman+2.0
129-3N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.7
139-4N KYGRNBAYServe errNorthern Ky.+1.1
1410-4GRNBAYN KYAttack errDiane Pichelman+1.3
1511-4N KYN KYBad setGillian Koning+1.3
1611-5N KYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
1712-5GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
1813-5N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Emma Adkins+1.0
1913-6N KYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Macy Kline+0.6
2014-6GRNBAYN KYAttack errOlivia Neumann+0.8
2115-6N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Daisy Cluxton+0.7
2215-7N KYGRNBAYServe errNorthern Ky.+0.4
2315-8GRNBAYGRNBAYAttack errLucia Heid+0.6
2416-8GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+0.7
2516-9N KYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
2617-9GRNBAYN KY×5KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
2718-9N KYN KY×5KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
2819-9N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
2920-9N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
3021-9N KYN KY×5BlockedKirsten Fishblk Ava Hoying, Ivey Stocks+0.1
3121-10N KYGRNBAYBlockedAva Hoyingblk Diane Pichelman, Sari Marks·
3222-10GRNBAYN KYBlockedKelsey Justmanblk Sydney Bray·
3323-10N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.aced Kennedy Schmitz·
3423-11N KYGRNBAYServe errNorthern Ky.·
3524-11GRNBAYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard·
3624-12N KYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez·
3725-12GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard·
Set 3
11-0N KYN KYBlockedGillian Koningblk Sydney Bray+3.0
22-0N KYN KYKillAshley Sessset Abbigail Pickard+2.9
32-1N KYGRNBAYAttack errSydney Bray+2.3
42-2GRNBAYGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+3.1
53-2GRNBAYN KY×6BlockedOlivia Neumannblk Ashley Sess+2.5
64-2N KYN KY×6KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+3.0
75-2N KYN KY×6Attack errGillian Koning+2.9
86-2N KYN KY×6KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+2.6
97-2N KYN KY×6Attack errGillian Koning+2.3
108-2N KYN KY×6KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
118-3N KYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
129-3GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
139-4N KYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
149-5GRNBAYGRNBAYBlockedAva Hoyingblk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann+2.1
1510-5GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+1.9
1610-6N KYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.7
1711-6GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+1.9
1812-6N KYN KYAttack errKirsten Fish+2.0
1912-7N KYGRNBAYAttack errLucia Heid+1.3
2012-8GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.1
2113-8GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+2.0
2214-8N KYN KYBad setAlexa Hernandez+2.0
2314-9N KYGRNBAYBlockedLucia Heidblk Alexa Hernandez, Diane Pichelman+1.2
2414-10GRNBAYGRNBAYKillGillian Koning+2.1
2515-10GRNBAYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+2.0
2615-11N KYGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Diane Pichelman+1.6
2715-12GRNBAYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+2.7
2816-12GRNBAYN KY×4KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+2.6
2917-12N KYN KY×4Attack errOlivia Neumann+2.6
3018-12N KYN KY×4BlockedGillian Koningblk Sydney Bray, Ivey Stocks+1.9
3119-12N KYN KY×4Attack errOlivia Neumann+1.2
3219-13N KYGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Kennedy Schmitz+0.6
3319-14GRNBAYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Kelsey Justman+1.2
3420-14GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
3520-15N KYGRNBAY×3BlockedAva Hoyingblk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann+0.8
3620-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillKelsey Justmanset Macy Kline+1.7
3720-17GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bay+2.5
3821-17GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+2.8
3921-18N KYGRNBAYAttack errAva Hoying+1.9
4022-18GRNBAYN KYKillLucia Heidset Daisy Cluxton+2.8
4122-19N KYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.7
4223-19GRNBAYN KY×3KillAshley Sessset Abbigail Pickard+2.7
4324-19N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.+1.6
4425-19N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Macy Kline+0.4
Set 4
11-0GRNBAYN KYServe errGreen Bay+2.2
22-0N KYN KYAttack errKirsten Fish+2.6
32-1N KYGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+2.1
43-1GRNBAYN KY×3Serve errGreen Bay+2.1
54-1N KYN KY×3KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+2.5
65-1N KYN KY×3KillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+2.3
75-2N KYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.7
86-2GRNBAYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
97-2N KYN KYBlockedKelsey Justmanblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+2.1
107-3N KYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
118-3GRNBAYN KYKillSydney Brayset Alexa Hernandez+1.7
129-3N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.8
139-4N KYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.2
1410-4GRNBAYN KYKillAshley Sessset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
1511-4N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
1611-5N KYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
1712-5GRNBAYN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
1813-5N KYN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
1914-5N KYN KY×3Attack errGillian Koning+0.7
2014-6N KYGRNBAY×3KillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.4
2114-7GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.7
2214-8GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceAlexa Hernandezaced Ava Hoying+1.0
2315-8GRNBAYN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
2416-8N KYN KYAttack errKirsten Fish+0.9
2516-9N KYGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
2617-9GRNBAYN KYServe errGillian Koning+0.7
2717-10N KYGRNBAYServe errSydney Bray+0.5
2818-10GRNBAYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
2918-11N KYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.4
3018-12GRNBAYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelman+0.8
3119-12GRNBAYN KY×3Attack errKelsey Justman+0.9
3220-12N KYN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
3321-12N KYN KY×3BlockedKelsey Justmanblk Abbigail Pickard, Ashley Sess+0.3
3421-13N KYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.1
3522-13GRNBAYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
3622-14N KYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+0.1
3723-14GRNBAYN KY×3KillAshley Sessset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
3824-14N KYN KY×3Attack errAlexa Hernandez·
3925-14N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard·

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).