Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on FloSports

UNCW def. Northeastern 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northeastern 73.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 12:11 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UNCW beat visiting Northeastern 3-1 (25-19, 19-25, 25-18, 25-16) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. UNCW's Nadia Wasilewski led with 15 kills, and Annie Harney added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
NOEAST192518161
UNCW251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Nadia Wasilewski, and UNCW needed each of them.

The match turned twice. Numbers are UNCW's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had Northeastern at 74% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Northeastern 4–1 UNCW

    Down 1–4, UNCW scored 7 straight to lead 8–4.

    UNCW 23% → 45%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Northeastern 16–18 UNCW

    Up 18–16, UNCW scored 5 straight to make it 23–16. The match swung to UNCW.

    UNCW 45% → 60%

UNCW above 50Northeastern belowMax swing 4.7%

NortheasternUNCW

Sideout %
Northeastern 55.9·UNCW 67.1
Break %
Northeastern 32.9·UNCW 44.1
Hitting
Northeastern .190·UNCW .291
Longest run
Northeastern 4·UNCW 7

Nadia Wasilewski
2 kills inside the turning points, 15 K and .351 for the match (20 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UNCW above 50 · Northeastern below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.7% UNCWrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.7% to UNCW — set 4, NOEAST 3-6 UNCW. UNCW ace on Aven Crosby. UNCW win probability 70% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NOEAST 42.5%57.5% UNCW

Northeastern wins

3-0
9.6%
3-1
15.6%
3-2
17.3%

UNCW wins

3-0
15.9%
3-1
21.9%
3-2
19.7%
NOEAST break %
42.0% vs this opp
UNCW break %
43.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    UNCWAce+4.7%

    UNCW ace on Aven Crosby

    Set 4 · NOEAST 3-6 UNCW · UNCW 70% → 75%

  2. 02
    Lily GoyerBlock+4.7%

    Abbie Callaway stuffed by Lily Goyer

    Set 3 · NOEAST 16-20 UNCW · UNCW 49% → 54%

  3. 03
    Cayenne CemanAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Cayenne Ceman

    Set 4 · NOEAST 3-7 UNCW · UNCW 75% → 79%

  4. 04

    Kill by Lilly Sullivan

    Set 4 · NOEAST 6-11 UNCW · UNCW 81% → 86%

  5. 05

    Kill by Nadia Wasilewski (set by Arina Sosinovica)

    Set 4 · NOEAST 1-3 UNCW · UNCW 65% → 69%

  6. 06

    Kill by Abbie Callaway (set by Beatrice Gennari)

    Set 3 · NOEAST 16-18 UNCW · NOEAST 51% → 55%

  7. 07
    Elaina MurphyKill+4.1%

    Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 4 · NOEAST 1-2 UNCW · UNCW 61% → 65%

  8. 08

    Kill by Beatrice Gennari

    Set 2 · NOEAST 13-13 UNCW · NOEAST 47% → 51%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48081.00022120111.511.5
410523.2170036100010
46422.09110040010.56.5
4000–231080010.51.5
24015.267101430004
2025-.40000000031.51.5
47529.06900172010.57.5
41011.000811600002
4001.0006211000002
34313.07700010010.54.5
2529.333000001016
2000–000430000
1000–001000000
Team totals4521126.1904169521028678
UNCWhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415237.3510412002120
414127.48113410302118
46111.455101201439
44313.07710010111.55.5
44010.40040011200004
33615-.20020242010.53.5
41011.0003321810004
4000–000200000
3000–000200000
26211.364000100006
1012-.500000000000
Team totals5316127.291481011546210794

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Northeastern vs UNCW

Season series · UNCW leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NOEAST · UNCW 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 NOEASTUNCW 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 NOEASTUNCW 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 4 NOEASTUNCW 7

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 2 NOEASTUNCW 3

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Northeastern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northeastern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%6/11
50%4/8
2
60%6/10
0%0/6
3
71%5/7
0%0/5
4
57%4/7
44%4/9
5
80%4/5
20%1/5
6
80%4/5
43%3/7
All
64%29/45
30%12/40

UNCW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%6/6
45%5/11
2
100%5/5
40%4/10
3
56%5/9
29%2/7
4
80%4/5
43%3/7
5
57%4/7
20%1/5
6
50%4/8
20%1/5
All
70%28/40
36%16/45

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#NOEAST-UNCWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+1.6
21-1UNCWNOEASTKillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+1.5
31-2UNCW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
41-3UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Valentina Meirelles+2.3
52-3UNCWNOEASTKillBeatrice Gennariset Arina Sosinovica+1.5
62-4NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Sam Vanda+1.7
73-4UNCWNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Iris Canko+1.6
84-4NOEASTNOEASTBlockedElaina Murphyblk Beatrice Gennari, Emma Rowell+2.2
94-5NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+1.7
105-5UNCWNOEASTAttack errLily Goyerset Abbie Callaway+1.6
115-6NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+1.8
125-7UNCWUNCWAttack errKaylin Daniels+2.6
136-7UNCWNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Arina Sosinovica+1.7
146-8NOEASTUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.9
156-9UNCWUNCWKillSam Vanda+2.7
167-9UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+1.7
178-9NOEASTNOEASTBlockedLauren Lewisblk Kaylin Daniels, Arina Sosinovica+2.5
188-10NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.1
199-10UNCWNOEASTKillCayenne Cemanset Iris Canko+1.8
209-11NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.1
219-12UNCWUNCWAttack errCayenne Ceman+2.9
2210-12UNCWNOEAST×3KillBeatrice Gennariset Arina Sosinovica+1.8
2311-12NOEASTNOEAST×3KillCayenne Cemanset Beatrice Gennari+2.8
2412-12NOEASTNOEAST×3KillValentina Meirellesset Emma Rowell+2.9
2512-13NOEASTUNCW×5KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.3
2612-14UNCWUNCW×5Attack errEmma Rowell+3.3
2712-15UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCWaced Valentina Meirelles+3.2
2812-16UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCWaced Valentina Meirelles+3.0
2912-17UNCWUNCW×5BlockedEmma Rowellblk Elaina Murphy, Lily Goyer+2.5
3013-17UNCWNOEASTBlockedSam Vandablk Beatrice Gennari+1.3
3113-18NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.9
3214-18UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+1.2
3314-19NOEASTUNCWKillGaby Zovko+1.8
3415-19UNCWNOEASTKillValentina Meirellesset Arina Sosinovica+1.2
3515-20NOEASTUNCW×3KillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+1.8
3615-21UNCW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
3715-22UNCWUNCW×3KillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+0.9
3816-22UNCWNOEAST×4BlockedSam Vandablk Elle Lucas, Kaylin Daniels+0.2
3917-22NOEASTNOEAST×4KillCayenne Ceman+0.6
4018-22NOEASTNOEAST×4BlockedGaby Zovkoblk Kaylin Daniels, Cayenne Ceman, Sam Vanda+1.1
4119-22NOEASTNOEAST×4KillElle Lucasset Iris Canko+1.8
4219-23NOEASTUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.3
4319-24UNCWUNCW×3Attack errCayenne Ceman+1.5
4419-25UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+0.4
Set 2
11-0UNCWNOEASTAttack errNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+1.9
21-1NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.0
32-1UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+1.9
42-2NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.0
52-3UNCWUNCWKillLily Goyer+3.0
63-3UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+2.1
74-3NOEASTNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Arina Sosinovica+2.9
84-4NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.2
95-4UNCWNOEASTKillBeatrice Gennariset Arina Sosinovica+2.1
105-5NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+2.2
116-5UNCWNOEASTKillBeatrice Gennariset Gabby Reeves+2.2
126-6NOEASTUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+2.3
136-7UNCWUNCWBlockedElle Lucasblk Sam Vanda, Lauren Lewis+3.4
147-7UNCWNOEASTKillGabby Reeves+2.3
158-7NOEASTNOEASTAttack errSam Vanda+3.2
168-8NOEASTUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+2.4
178-9UNCWUNCWAttack errKaylin Daniels+3.6
189-9UNCWNOEASTKillElle Lucasset Gabby Reeves+2.5
199-10NOEASTUNCW×3Attack errEmma Rowellset Arina Sosinovica+2.7
209-11UNCWUNCW×3Attack errCayenne Ceman+3.9
219-12UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+4.0
2210-12UNCWNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Arina Sosinovica+2.5
2310-13NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.0
2411-13UNCWNOEAST×4KillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+2.5
2512-13NOEASTNOEAST×4AceNortheasternaced Sam Vanda+3.9
2613-13NOEASTNOEAST×4KillBeatrice Gennari+4.1
2714-13NOEASTNOEAST×4KillBeatrice Gennariset Arina Sosinovica+4.0
2814-14NOEASTUNCWBlockedAbbie Callawayblk Nadia Wasilewski, Lily Goyer+3.0
2915-14UNCWNOEASTKillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+3.0
3016-14NOEASTNOEASTAceNortheasternaced Annie Harney+4.0
3116-15NOEASTUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.7
3217-15UNCWNOEAST×4KillAbbie Callawayset Iris Canko+3.0
3318-15NOEASTNOEAST×4KillCayenne Ceman+3.6
3419-15NOEASTNOEAST×4Attack errSam Vanda+2.7
3520-15NOEASTNOEAST×4Attack errMeredith Keefer+1.9
3620-16NOEASTUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Elaina Murphy+0.9
3721-16UNCWNOEAST×3KillBeatrice Gennariset Gabby Reeves+1.3
3822-16NOEASTNOEAST×3Attack errSam Vanda+0.9
3923-16NOEASTNOEAST×3AceNortheasternaced Sam Vanda+0.4
4023-17NOEASTUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+0.1
4123-18UNCWUNCWAttack errAbbie Callaway+0.3
4224-18UNCWNOEASTKillAbbie Callawayset Gabby Reeves+0.4
4324-19NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+0.1
4425-19UNCWNOEASTKillCayenne Cemanset Arina Sosinovica+0.2
Set 3
11-0NOEASTNOEASTKillCayenne Cemanset Arina Sosinovica+2.8
21-1NOEASTUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+2.1
32-1UNCWNOEAST×3KillBryce Leatherwoodset Arina Sosinovica+2.1
43-1NOEASTNOEAST×3BlockedLauren Lewisblk Bryce Leatherwood+2.7
54-1NOEAST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
64-2NOEASTUNCW×7KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.7
74-3UNCWUNCW×7KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.8
84-4UNCWUNCW×7AceUNCWaced Cayenne Ceman+3.1
94-5UNCWUNCW×7KillElaina Murphy+3.4
104-6UNCWUNCW×7BlockedBryce Leatherwoodblk Nadia Wasilewski, Lily Goyer+3.6
114-7UNCWUNCW×7AceUNCWaced Abbie Callaway+3.7
124-8UNCWUNCW×7BlockedEmma Rowellblk Elaina Murphy, Lily Goyer+3.6
135-8NOEAST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.2
145-9NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.7
156-9UNCWNOEASTKillBryce Leatherwoodset Arina Sosinovica+2.2
166-10NOEASTUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Lily Goyer+2.8
177-10UNCWNOEASTKillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+2.3
187-11NOEASTUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+2.8
197-12UNCWUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+3.5
208-12UNCWNOEASTKillBeatrice Gennariset Gabby Reeves+2.0
219-12NOEASTNOEASTAttack errLilly Sullivan+3.3
229-13NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+2.9
2310-13UNCWNOEASTKillElle Lucasset Gabby Reeves+2.4
2410-14NOEASTUNCWAttack errElle Lucasset Beatrice Gennari+3.0
2511-14UNCWNOEASTKillBryce Leatherwoodset Gabby Reeves+2.4
2611-15NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.1
2711-16UNCWUNCWAttack errCayenne Ceman+3.7
2812-16UNCWNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Arina Sosinovica+1.9
2912-17NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.7
3012-18UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Cayenne Ceman+2.8
3113-18UNCWNOEAST×4KillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+1.3
3214-18NOEASTNOEAST×4KillAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+2.5
3315-18NOEASTNOEAST×4AceNortheasternaced Elaina Murphy+3.3
3416-18NOEASTNOEAST×4KillAbbie Callawayset Beatrice Gennari+4.2
3516-19NOEASTUNCW×5Serve errNortheastern+4.0
3616-20UNCWUNCW×5BlockedAbbie Callawayblk Lily Goyer+4.7
3716-21UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCW+3.4
3816-22UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCWaced Aven Crosby+2.1
3916-23UNCWUNCW×5KillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+1.0
4017-23UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+0.2
4117-24NOEASTUNCWAttack errAbbie Callawayset Iris Canko+0.4
4218-24UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+0.1
4318-25NOEASTUNCWBlockedElle Lucasblk Lauren Lewis+0.2
Set 4
11-0UNCWNOEASTAttack errLauren Lewisset Abbie Callaway+2.6
21-1NOEASTUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.8
31-2UNCWUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+4.1
41-3UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Arina Sosinovica+4.4
52-3UNCWNOEASTKillBryce Leatherwoodset Arina Sosinovica+2.9
62-4NOEASTUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+3.3
73-4UNCWNOEASTKillCayenne Cemanset Arina Sosinovica+3.0
83-5NOEASTUNCW×3Attack errAbbie Callawayset Arina Sosinovica+3.4
93-6UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Aven Crosby+4.7
103-7UNCWUNCW×3Attack errCayenne Ceman+4.6
114-7UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+2.8
124-8NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+3.4
135-8UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+2.9
145-9NOEASTUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+3.5
156-9UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+2.9
166-10NOEASTUNCWKillLilly Sullivan+3.6
176-11UNCWUNCWKillLilly Sullivan+4.5
187-11UNCWNOEASTKillBryce Leatherwood+2.6
197-12NOEASTUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+3.4
208-12UNCWNOEASTKillValentina Meirellesset Iris Canko+2.6
218-13NOEASTUNCWAttack errBryce Leatherwoodset Gabby Reeves+3.4
229-13UNCWNOEASTKillAbbie Callawayset Gabby Reeves+2.6
239-14NOEASTUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+3.4
249-15UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.9
2510-15UNCWNOEASTAttack errNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.0
2610-16NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.9
2710-17UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Aven Crosby+2.9
2811-17UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW+1.3
2911-18NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+2.0
3012-18UNCWNOEASTKillEmma Rowellset Valentina Meirelles+1.2
3113-18NOEASTNOEASTAceNortheasternaced Elaina Murphy+2.4
3213-19NOEASTUNCW×3KillAnnie Harneyset Lauren Lewis+2.6
3313-20UNCWUNCW×3KillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+2.3
3413-21UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+1.3
3514-21UNCWNOEASTKillValentina Meirellesset Arina Sosinovica+0.4
3614-22NOEASTUNCWServe errNortheastern+0.7
3715-22UNCWNOEASTAttack errLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+0.2
3815-23NOEASTUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.5
3915-24UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+0.2
4016-24UNCWNOEASTServe errUNCW·
4116-25NOEASTUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko·

Score shown after each rally, Northeastern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).