Merrimack at UConn

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
MERMCK	12	15	–	0
UCONN	24	25	–	2

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

UCONN above 50 · MERMCK below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Merrimack — set 1, MERMCK 5-4 UCONN. Point Merrimack (not logged in NCAA feed). UCONN win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERMCK 0.7%99.3% UCONN

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

UConn wins

3-0

77.2%

3-1

19.1%

3-2

3.0%

MERMCK break %: 35.6% vs this opp
UCONN break %: 54.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.2%
Point Merrimack (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · MERMCK 5-4 UCONN · MERMCK 1% → 1%
02
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.1%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia Debonis)
Set 1 · MERMCK 1-0 UCONN · MERMCK 1% → 1%
03
Courtney GraysonKill+0.1%
Kill by Courtney Grayson (set by Isabella Sohl)
Set 1 · MERMCK 5-6 UCONN · UCONN 99% → 99%
04
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.1%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia Debonis)
Set 1 · MERMCK 3-2 UCONN · MERMCK 1% → 1%
05
UCONN serverService error+0.1%
UConn service error
Set 1 · MERMCK 6-6 UCONN · MERMCK 1% → 1%
06
Tamilore AfolaluKill+0.1%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Sophia Debonis)
Set 1 · MERMCK 2-1 UCONN · MERMCK 1% → 1%
07
Mia IzzoAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Mia Izzo
Set 1 · MERMCK 5-5 UCONN · UCONN 99% → 99%
08
Isabella SohlKill+0.1%
Kill by Isabella Sohl
Set 1 · MERMCK 3-4 UCONN · UCONN 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Merrimackaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Tamilore AfolaluOH	2	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5
17Kaitlyn OxceusOH	2	1	1	3	.000	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	2	2	4	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	2	2	2	14	.000	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
13Mia IzzoMB	2	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Sophia DebonisS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
14Maiella BlandinOH	2	0	2	6	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
19Elizabeth KenneyS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
15Gabrielle MooreS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Avry BryantOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Fabiola BetancourtOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Vaia TsioutsioulasOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Naomi VajdaMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Natalia ZelubowskiOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Devon LoweS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
21Ella GizmuntOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Sienna FranksL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		10	14	51	-.078	10	2	5	19	5	2	2	3	27

UConnhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Helena EinarsdottirOH	2	8	0	11	.727	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	1	10
14Maja DacaOH	2	4	2	10	.200	0	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
7Courtney GraysonMB	2	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
11Sydney BorowyOH	2	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
5Olivia GrenadierMB	2	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
4Isabella SohlS	2	2	0	3	.667	17	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
2Maggie CarleyS	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
1Isabella SuhyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Elizabeth DeckerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Abigail BucknerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Hailey MaesMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Olivia PasternakOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Jordyn HughesMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Grace MariaOH	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	0
8Audrey JensenS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Anna HermanMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Hazuna AkishigeL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
6Megan EvansOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	8	53	.302	20	5	6	21	2	1	10	6	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 2 MERMCK · UCONN 7

Set 1*

12-24

Longest run 2 MERMCKUCONN 6

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 MERMCKUCONN 7

Bars above the line = UConn leads, below = Merrimack leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

76 rallies

Rally log

#	MERMCK-UCONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia Debonis	+0.1
2	1-1	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Olivia Grenadier	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
3	2-1	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia Debonis	+0.1
4	2-2	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
5	3-2	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia Debonis	+0.1
6	3-3	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
7	3-4	UCONN	UCONN	Kill	Isabella Sohl		+0.1
8	4-4	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
9	5-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
10	5-5	MERMCK	UCONN	Attack err	Mia Izzo	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
11	5-6	UCONN	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
12	6-6	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
13	6-7	MERMCK	UCONN×3	Kill	Sydney Borowy		+0.1
14	6-8	UCONN	UCONN×3	Attack err	Maiella Blandin		+0.1
15	6-9	UCONN	UCONN×3	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
16	7-9	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
17	7-10	MERMCK	UCONN	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
18	8-10	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia Debonis	+0.1
19	8-11	MERMCK	UCONN	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.1
20	8-12	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Helena Einarsdottir, Olivia Grenadier	+0.1
21	9-12	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
22	9-13	MERMCK	UCONN×3	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
23	9-14	UCONN	UCONN×3	Kill	Maja Daca	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
24	9-15	UCONN	UCONN×3	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Courtney Grayson, Maja Daca	+0.0
25	10-15	UCONN	MERMCK	Attack err	Maja Daca	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.0
26	10-16	MERMCK	UCONN×3	Kill	Maja Daca	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
27	10-17	UCONN	UCONN×3	Ace	UCONN server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.0
28	10-18	UCONN	UCONN×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
29	11-18	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
30	12-18	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Grace Maria	+0.0
31	12-19	MERMCK	UCONN×6	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
32	12-20	UCONN	UCONN×6	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
33	12-21	UCONN	UCONN×6	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Courtney Grayson	+0.0
34	12-22	UCONN	UCONN×6	Ace	UCONN server	aced Sienna Franks	+0.0
35	12-23	UCONN	UCONN×6	Ace	UCONN server	aced TEAM	+0.0
36	12-24	UCONN	UCONN×6	Attack err	Maddy Fennessy		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	UCONN	UCONN	Ace	UCONN server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.1
2	1-1	UCONN	MERMCK	Attack err	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
3	2-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Grace Maria	+0.1
4	2-2	MERMCK	UCONN×5	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
5	2-3	UCONN	UCONN×5	Kill	Maja Daca		+0.1
6	2-4	UCONN	UCONN×5	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Maja Daca, Courtney Grayson	+0.1
7	2-5	UCONN	UCONN×5	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Courtney Grayson, Maja Daca	+0.0
8	2-6	UCONN	UCONN×5	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
9	3-6	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.0
10	4-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
11	4-7	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
12	5-7	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
13	6-7	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Maja Daca		+0.1
14	6-8	MERMCK	UCONN	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
15	7-8	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
16	8-8	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sydney Borowy		+0.1
17	8-9	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy		+0.1
18	8-10	UCONN	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy		+0.1
19	9-10	UCONN	MERMCK	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	blk Maiella Blandin, Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.1
20	9-11	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Maja Daca		+0.1
21	9-12	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.1
22	10-12	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sienna Franks	+0.1
23	10-13	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Olivia Grenadier	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
24	11-13	UCONN	MERMCK	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.1
25	11-14	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.1
26	11-15	UCONN	UCONN	Ace	UCONN server	aced Sienna Franks	+0.1
27	12-15	UCONN	MERMCK	Attack err	Courtney Grayson	blk Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.0
28	12-16	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir		+0.0
29	13-16	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia Debonis	+0.0
30	13-17	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Isabella Sohl		+0.0
31	14-17	UCONN	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
32	14-18	MERMCK	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
33	15-18	UCONN	MERMCK	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	set Olivia Grenadier	+0.0
34	15-19	MERMCK	UCONN×7	Kill	Olivia Grenadier	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
35	15-20	UCONN	UCONN×7	Attack err	Maiella Blandin		+0.0
36	15-21	UCONN	UCONN×7	Kill	Olivia Grenadier		+0.0
37	15-22	UCONN	UCONN×7	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Hazuna Akishige	+0.0
38	15-23	UCONN	UCONN×7	Attack err	UConn	blk Olivia Grenadier, Helena Einarsdottir	+0.0
39	15-24	UCONN	UCONN×7	Attack err	Kaitlyn Oxceus		+0.0
40	15-25	UCONN	UCONN×7	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Merrimack first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.