FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeMETRO

Hofstra def. Manhattan 3–0

(25-15, 25-15, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOFSTR	25	25	25	3
MANHAT	15	15	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MANHAT above 50 · HOFSTR below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Manhattan — set 2, HOFSTR 8-11 MANHAT. Manhattan ace on Beatriz Braga. MANHAT win probability 0% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOFSTR 99.6%0.4% MANHAT

Hofstra wins

3-0

81.5%

3-1

16.1%

3-2

2.0%

Manhattan wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.3%

HOFSTR break %: 54.0% vs this opp
MANHAT break %: 33.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MANHAT serverAce+0.1%
Manhattan ace on Beatriz Braga
Set 2 · HOFSTR 8-11 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 1%
02
Beatriz BragaAttack error+0.1%
Beatriz Braga stuffed by Abby Morreale & Emma Francesconi
Set 2 · HOFSTR 8-10 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 0%
03
Constanza Perez SainKill+0.1%
Kill by Constanza Perez Sain (set by Sonja Rundcrantz)
Set 2 · HOFSTR 10-11 MANHAT · HOFSTR 100% → 100%
04
Hanna KaczynskaAttack error+0.1%
Hanna Kaczynska stuffed by Julia Amorim & Constanza Perez Sain
Set 2 · HOFSTR 11-11 MANHAT · HOFSTR 100% → 100%
05
Hanna KaczynskaAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Hanna Kaczynska
Set 2 · HOFSTR 9-11 MANHAT · HOFSTR 99% → 100%
06
Beatriz BragaAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Beatriz Braga
Set 2 · HOFSTR 7-8 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 0%
07
HOFSTR serverAce+0.1%
Hofstra ace on Emma Francesconi
Set 2 · HOFSTR 12-11 MANHAT · HOFSTR 100% → 100%
08
Beatriz BragaAttack error+0.1%
Beatriz Braga stuffed by Katie Powers & Abby Morreale
Set 2 · HOFSTR 8-9 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Hofstraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Beatriz BragaOH	3	5	6	15	-.067	0	3	1	8	2	0	0	8
3Maria AfonsoOH	3	6	2	11	.364	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	8
21Constanza Perez SainOH	3	6	4	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
19Julia AmorimMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Sonja RundcrantzS	3	0	0	3	.000	16	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
16Geovanna Gonçalves RochaOH	2	2	1	6	.167	0	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
2Dawn PenaOH	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	6
15Stella BeckerOH	3	4	2	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
22Lauren KonzenDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	2
11Ellie PamatatS	3	0	0	6	.000	13	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
5Nil KayaalpL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	9	1	0	0	0
24Brooke WilsonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
18Alyssa KenolMB	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		34	17	85	.200	32	10	5	32	4	10	5	75

Manhattanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Abby MorrealeMB	3	6	0	14	.429	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	8
6Katie PowersOH	3	2	4	14	-.143	0	0	0	1	2	4	2	4
8Emma FrancesconiOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	3	4	3	1	0.5	3.5
10Ori BrigerS	3	0	0	2	.000	8	2	1	1	0	0	0	2
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	1
12Helenn MontillaMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Brooke JohnsonOH	3	6	6	20	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	3	4	5	17	-.059	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
5Lyla AuthMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
4Emilia KuzniarS	3	0	0	2	.000	12	1	2	5	0	0	0	1
15Anna DuncanDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	6	2	0	0	0
3Julia PflegerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Karsyn HarrisOH	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team totals		24	20	91	.044	22	4	10	22	10	14	7	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 HOFSTR · MANHAT 3

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 5 HOFSTRMANHAT 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 7 HOFSTRMANHAT 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 HOFSTRMANHAT 3

Bars above the line = Manhattan leads, below = Hofstra leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Hofstra

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	50%4/8
2	100%6/6	60%9/15
3	100%6/6	45%5/11
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	45%5/11	76%16/21
6	63%5/8	44%4/9
All	65%34/52	56%41/73

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	38%3/8
2	50%6/12	25%2/8
3	67%6/9	0%0/6
4	38%6/16	40%4/10
5	29%5/17	50%6/12
6	43%3/7	38%3/8
All	44%32/73	35%18/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	HOFSTR-MANHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
2	1-1	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.1
3	2-1	MANHAT	HOFSTR×4	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
4	3-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Constanza Perez Sain, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.0
5	4-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
6	5-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.0
7	5-2	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
8	6-2	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
9	7-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
10	7-3	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
11	8-3	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
12	9-3	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
13	10-3	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Dawn Pena	+0.0
14	10-4	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Anna Duncan	+0.0
15	10-5	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Katie Powers	+0.0
16	10-6	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha		+0.0
17	11-6	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
18	12-6	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
19	13-6	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
20	13-7	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth	set Ori Briger	+0.0
21	14-7	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
22	14-8	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.0
23	15-8	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
24	16-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Emma Francesconi	+0.0
25	16-9	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
26	17-9	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
27	17-10	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
28	18-10	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
29	18-11	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
30	19-11	MANHAT	HOFSTR×5	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
31	20-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Lyla Auth	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Dawn Pena	+0.0
32	21-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+0.0
33	22-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.0
34	23-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
35	23-12	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
36	24-12	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
37	24-13	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Ori Briger	+0.0
38	24-14	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Brooke Wilson	+0.0
39	24-15	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
40	25-15	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
2	1-1	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
3	1-2	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.0
4	2-2	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
5	2-3	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
6	3-3	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
7	3-4	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
8	4-4	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
9	5-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
10	6-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
11	6-5	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
12	6-6	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.1
13	7-6	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
14	7-7	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
15	7-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.1
16	8-8	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
17	8-9	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Katie Powers, Abby Morreale	+0.1
18	8-10	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Abby Morreale, Emma Francesconi	+0.1
19	8-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Beatriz Braga	+0.1
20	9-11	MANHAT	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.1
21	10-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
22	11-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska	blk Julia Amorim, Constanza Perez Sain	+0.1
23	12-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Emma Francesconi	+0.1
24	12-12	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
25	13-12	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
26	14-12	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
27	15-12	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
28	15-13	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
29	16-13	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
30	17-13	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
31	18-13	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.0
32	18-14	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
33	18-15	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth		+0.0
34	19-15	MANHAT	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
35	20-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
36	21-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Katie Powers	+0.0
37	22-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
38	23-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Stella Becker	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
39	24-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Katie Powers	+0.0
40	25-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Stella Becker	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
2	2-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
3	3-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
4	3-1	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+0.0
5	4-1	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
6	4-2	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
7	5-2	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Constanza Perez Sain, Alyssa Kenol	+0.0
8	5-3	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
9	5-4	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
10	5-5	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Maria Afonso	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Lyla Auth	+0.0
11	6-5	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
12	6-6	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
13	6-7	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Beatriz Braga	+0.0
14	7-7	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Alyssa Kenol	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
15	8-7	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
16	8-8	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.0
17	9-8	MANHAT	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
18	10-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
19	11-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
20	12-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.0
21	13-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
22	13-9	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Kill	Lyla Auth	set Ori Briger	+0.0
23	13-10	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.0
24	13-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain	blk Katie Powers, Abby Morreale	+0.0
25	14-11	MANHAT	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
26	15-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
27	16-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
28	17-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Stella Becker	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
29	17-12	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
30	18-12	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Stella Becker	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
31	18-13	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
32	19-13	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
33	19-14	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Stella Becker	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale	+0.0
34	19-15	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Stella Becker		+0.0
35	19-16	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Dawn Pena		+0.0
36	20-16	MANHAT	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Lyla Auth		+0.0
37	21-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Brooke Johnson	+0.0
38	22-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Emma Francesconi	+0.0
39	22-17	HOFSTR	MANHAT×3	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
40	22-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Karsyn Harris	+0.0
41	22-19	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Nil Kayaalp	+0.0
42	23-19	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
43	24-19	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Karsyn Harris	+0.0
44	24-20	HOFSTR	MANHAT	Attack err	Dawn Pena	blk Lyla Auth, Katie Powers	+0.0
45	25-20	MANHAT	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Lauren Konzen	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Hofstra first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.