Northeastern at Towson

Set	1*	2*	3	Sets
NOEAST	22	14	–	0
TOWSON	25	15	–	1

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

TOWSON above 50 · NOEAST below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Towson — set 1, NOEAST 21-23 TOWSON. Kill by Anna Rice (set by Kayla Zanon). TOWSON win probability 77% → 82%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NOEAST 25.8%74.2% TOWSON

Northeastern wins

3-0

4.6%

3-1

8.9%

3-2

12.3%

Towson wins

3-0

26.3%

3-1

28.4%

3-2

19.4%

NOEAST break %: 39.5% vs this opp
TOWSON break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Anna RiceKill+4.9%
Kill by Anna Rice (set by Kayla Zanon)
Set 1 · NOEAST 21-23 TOWSON · TOWSON 77% → 82%
02
Taylor PaganAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Taylor Pagan
Set 1 · NOEAST 20-20 TOWSON · NOEAST 23% → 27%
03
Anna RiceKill+4.1%
Kill by Anna Rice (set by Kaitlyn Moran)
Set 1 · NOEAST 22-24 TOWSON · TOWSON 79% → 83%
04
Taylor PaganKill+4.0%
Kill by Taylor Pagan (set by Kaitlyn Moran)
Set 1 · NOEAST 18-19 TOWSON · TOWSON 72% → 76%
05
Destini PickettKill+3.9%
Kill by Destini Pickett (set by Kaitlyn Moran)
Set 1 · NOEAST 21-22 TOWSON · TOWSON 73% → 77%
06
Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.7%
Point Towson (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · NOEAST 18-20 TOWSON · TOWSON 76% → 80%
07
Taylor PaganKill+3.6%
Kill by Taylor Pagan (set by Kaitlyn Moran)
Set 1 · NOEAST 17-17 TOWSON · TOWSON 68% → 72%
08
Valentina MeirellesKill+3.5%
Kill by Valentina Meirelles (set by Sofia King)
Set 1 · NOEAST 21-21 TOWSON · NOEAST 24% → 27%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northeasternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
5Emma RowellOPP	2	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	1	0	0	6
15Brynn SmithOH	2	5	1	16	.250	2	0	1	3	1	0.5	5.5
9Beatrice GennariMB	2	3	0	5	.600	0	1	0	2	1	0.5	4.5
12Valentina MeirellesOH	2	3	2	15	.067	1	0	1	4	2	1	4
11Kaylin DanielsMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
13Arina SosinovicaS	2	0	0	0	–	10	0	1	3	0	0	0
18Cayenne CemanOH	2	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	3.5
3Sofia KingS	2	1	0	3	.333	7	0	1	5	0	0	1
20Bryce LeatherwoodMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Aven CrosbyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Abbie CallawayOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
4Kate EwingMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Gabby ReevesS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Erikah BuffOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Zehra YilmazMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Jane NelsonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Elle LucasOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Quinnlin HickmanOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Sophie LasalaOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Iris CankoDS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	0	0	0
Team totals		22	8	66	.212	22	1	6	28	8	4	36

Towsonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Anna RiceOH	2	8	4	17	.235	0	2	3	0	0	0	8
16Taylor PaganOH	2	6	2	11	.364	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Destini PickettOH	2	4	4	18	.000	0	0	6	0	2	1	5
6Malinah Purcell-telefoniOPP	2	4	1	9	.333	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
23Clara VorelMB	2	1	0	6	.167	1	0	0	0	2	1	2
22Kaitlyn MoranS	2	1	0	6	.167	17	0	6	0	1	0.5	1.5
12Kayla ZanonL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	0	0	0	0
9Tshilanda DioufOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Bjanka StojanovicOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Addison LeberOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Natalia PebenitoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
2Megan PlattL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
1Lilia DuczekMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Nola DuncanOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kamree OrizottiS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Ava DryeOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Peyton MeyerS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Evi PriniotakiOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	11	68	.191	19	2	31	1	8	4	40

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NOEAST · TOWSON 4

Set 1*

22-25

Longest run 3 NOEASTTOWSON 4

Set 2*

14-15

Longest run 4 NOEASTTOWSON 4

Bars above the line = Towson leads, below = Northeastern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

76 rallies

Rally log

#	NOEAST-TOWSON	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Valentina Meirelles	+1.6
2	1-1	NOEAST	TOWSON	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.5
3	2-1	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell		+1.6
4	3-1	NOEAST	NOEAST	Kill	Beatrice Gennari	set Arina Sosinovica	+2.3
5	3-2	NOEAST	TOWSON	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.5
6	4-2	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Beatrice Gennari	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.7
7	4-3	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+1.6
8	5-3	TOWSON	NOEAST×3	Serve err	TOWSON server		+1.8
9	6-3	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Anna Rice		+2.5
10	7-3	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Destini Pickett		+2.4
11	7-4	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+1.5
12	8-4	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Sofia King	+1.8
13	8-5	NOEAST	TOWSON×4	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.5
14	8-6	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Attack err	Cayenne Ceman	blk Clara Vorel, Taylor Pagan	+2.3
15	8-7	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.4
16	8-8	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Clara Vorel		+2.5
17	9-8	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+1.9
18	10-8	NOEAST	NOEAST	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Brynn Smith	+2.8
19	10-9	NOEAST	TOWSON	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.8
20	10-10	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Cayenne Ceman		+2.6
21	11-10	TOWSON	NOEAST	Attack err	Anna Rice	blk Beatrice Gennari, Valentina Meirelles	+2.1
22	11-11	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.0
23	11-12	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Clara Vorel	+2.7
24	12-12	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+2.0
25	13-12	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Destini Pickett		+3.1
26	13-13	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.1
27	14-13	TOWSON	NOEAST×3	Kill	Beatrice Gennari	set Arina Sosinovica	+2.4
28	15-13	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Malinah Purcell-telefoni		+3.4
29	16-13	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+3.3
30	16-14	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.0
31	17-14	TOWSON	NOEAST	Serve err	TOWSON server		+2.6
32	17-15	NOEAST	TOWSON×3	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.0
33	17-16	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Malinah Purcell-telefoni	set Abbie Callaway	+3.3
34	17-17	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+3.6
35	18-17	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Sofia King	set Brynn Smith	+3.0
36	18-18	NOEAST	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.8
37	18-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+4.0
38	18-20	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+3.7
39	19-20	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+2.4
40	20-20	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+4.3
41	20-21	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+3.4
42	21-21	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+3.5
43	21-22	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+3.9
44	21-23	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kayla Zanon	+4.9
45	22-23	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+2.6
46	22-24	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+4.1
47	22-25	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.9
Set 2
1	1-0	NOEAST	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.7
2	1-1	NOEAST	TOWSON	Attack err	Emma Rowell	blk Clara Vorel, Destini Pickett	+1.2
3	2-1	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.3
4	2-2	NOEAST	TOWSON×3	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.2
5	2-3	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Cayenne Ceman		+1.6
6	2-4	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Valentina Meirelles	blk Destini Pickett, Malinah Purcell-telefoni	+1.5
7	3-4	TOWSON	NOEAST×4	Attack err	Destini Pickett	blk Kaylin Daniels, Cayenne Ceman	+1.1
8	4-4	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Sofia King	+1.7
9	5-4	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Attack err	Anna Rice	blk Valentina Meirelles, Kaylin Daniels	+1.9
10	6-4	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Attack err	Destini Pickett		+2.0
11	6-5	NOEAST	TOWSON	Attack err	Kaylin Daniels	set Sofia King	+1.3
12	6-6	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Valentina Meirelles	blk Kaitlyn Moran, Malinah Purcell-telefoni	+1.9
13	7-6	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Sofia King	+1.5
14	7-7	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett		+1.4
15	8-7	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Sofia King	+1.5
16	9-7	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+2.2
17	9-8	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan		+1.4
18	10-8	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Iris Canko	+1.6
19	10-9	NOEAST	TOWSON	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.5
20	11-9	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.7
21	12-9	NOEAST	NOEAST	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Megan Platt	+2.3
22	12-10	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Kaitlyn Moran		+1.4
23	13-10	TOWSON	NOEAST	Attack err	Anna Rice	blk Brynn Smith, Kaylin Daniels	+1.8
24	13-11	NOEAST	TOWSON×4	Attack err	Brynn Smith	set Sofia King	+1.5
25	13-12	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Kaitlyn Moran		+2.3
26	13-13	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Malinah Purcell-telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.4
27	13-14	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Malinah Purcell-telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+2.4
28	14-14	TOWSON	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Iris Canko	+1.8
29	14-15	NOEAST	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+1.8

Score shown after each rally, Northeastern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.