Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

Northern Colo. def. Air Force 3–1

Northern Colo. beat visiting Air Force 3-1 (25-20, 25-20, 17-25, 25-15) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026. Northern Colo.'s Alayna Tessena led with 14 kills, and Bella LePore added 19 digs.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set1234Sets
AIRFOR202025151
N COLO252517253

Win probability

Northern Colo. above 50 · Air Force below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.1% N COLOrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.1% to Northern Colo. — set 1, AIRFOR 19-21 N COLO. Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Bella LePore). N COLO win probability 75% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

AIRFOR 27.6%72.4% N COLO

Air Force wins

3-0
5.1%
3-1
9.6%
3-2
12.9%

Northern Colo. wins

3-0
25.0%
3-1
27.8%
3-2
19.7%
AIRFOR break %
40.0% vs this opp
N COLO break %
44.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Bella LePore)

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 19-21 N COLO · N COLO 75% → 79%

  2. 02
    Nerea Alvarez-JorgeAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 18-18 N COLO · AIRFOR 25% → 29%

  3. 03

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 16-17 N COLO · N COLO 71% → 74%

  4. 04

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 16-16 N COLO · N COLO 67% → 71%

  5. 05
    Northern Colo.Ace+3.3%

    Northern Colo. ace

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 16-18 N COLO · N COLO 74% → 77%

  6. 06

    Kill by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge (set by Samantha Pope)

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 16-15 N COLO · N COLO 64% → 67%

  7. 07

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Leila Ballard)

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 19-20 N COLO · N COLO 71% → 75%

  8. 08
    Jenness OrcuttAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Jenness Orcutt

    Set 1 · AIRFOR 19-22 N COLO · N COLO 79% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414842.1430002100014
47216.3132023032411
48220.3000001012210
47543.047010114010.58.5
44111.27300010132.56.5
4001.0002311800001
44119.158000100004
4000–220000002
4002.000011200001
4102.500801500001
4000–3002200000
1000–000000000
Team totals4519156.167385556958980
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414544.205010112010.515.5
413226.42300000031.514.5
410827.07400050010.510.5
44110.3001518010110
4619.55643101001018
3208.250001002024
4000–5111920001
4000–011910001
36625.000000300006
3000–000100000
1103.333000002023
1000–00000010.50.5
Team totals5623152.217499466566992

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 AIRFOR · N COLO 6

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 AIRFORN COLO 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 4 AIRFORN COLO 6

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 5 AIRFORN COLO 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 3 AIRFORN COLO 4

Bars above the line = Northern Colo. leads, below = Air Force leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Air Force

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
30%3/10
2
62%8/13
53%9/17
3
44%8/18
50%8/16
4
57%8/14
53%9/17
5
41%7/17
33%4/12
6
33%5/15
33%3/9
All
48%44/91
44%36/81

Northern Colo.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
60%9/15
2
44%8/18
33%4/12
3
47%8/17
38%5/13
4
53%8/15
60%12/20
5
88%7/8
38%5/13
6
60%6/10
67%12/18
All
56%45/81
52%47/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#AIRFOR-N COLOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.0
21-1N COLOAIRFORBlockedKylie Cackovicblk Sonia Okpara, Lainie Stapleton+1.5
32-1AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Bella LePore+2.2
42-2AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.6
53-2N COLOAIRFOR×3Serve errNorthern Colo.+1.7
64-2AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillKennedy Simonset Bella LePore+2.4
75-2AIRFORAIRFOR×3AceAir Forceaced Bella LePore+2.4
85-3AIRFORN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.6
96-3N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Ella Vogel+1.9
106-4AIRFORN COLOAttack errGrace Fiaseu+1.6
117-4N COLOAIRFOR×3KillSamantha Popeset Samantha Pope+1.9
128-4AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillKarina Mendivilset Ella Vogel+2.5
139-4AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+2.3
149-5AIRFORN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
1510-5N COLOAIRFORServe errNorthern Colo.+1.8
1610-6AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
1711-6N COLOAIRFORAttack errGillian Walton+1.8
1812-6AIRFORAIRFORKillLainie Stapletonset Mia Loyd+2.1
1912-7AIRFORN COLO×4Attack errSonia Okpara+1.2
2012-8N COLON COLO×4KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.0
2112-9N COLON COLO×4KillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
2212-10N COLON COLO×4KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.6
2313-10N COLOAIRFORBlockedKylie Cackovicblk Sonia Okpara+2.3
2414-10AIRFORAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+2.9
2514-11AIRFORN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
2615-11N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+2.2
2715-12AIRFORN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Bella LePore+1.7
2815-13N COLON COLOAttack errGrace Fiaseu+2.8
2916-13N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+2.5
3016-14AIRFORN COLO×5KillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.0
3116-15N COLON COLO×5KillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Samantha Pope+3.2
3216-16N COLON COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.5
3316-17N COLON COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.5
3416-18N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.+3.3
3517-18N COLOAIRFORServe errNorthern Colo.+2.2
3618-18AIRFORAIRFORAttack errNerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.8
3718-19AIRFORN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.9
3819-19N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.0
3919-20AIRFORN COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Leila Ballard+3.2
4019-21N COLON COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Bella LePore+4.1
4119-22N COLON COLO×5Attack errJenness Orcutt+3.2
4219-23N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.aced Karina Mendivil+2.0
4319-24N COLON COLO×5KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
4420-24N COLOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Samantha Pope+0.2
4520-25AIRFORN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
Set 2
10-1AIRFORN COLOBlockedLainie Stapletonblk Summer Snead, Alayna Tessena+1.2
21-1N COLOAIRFOR×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+1.2
32-1AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errGillian Walton+1.8
43-1AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+1.9
53-2AIRFORN COLO×3KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.3
63-3N COLON COLO×3Attack errKennedy Simon+1.8
73-4N COLON COLO×3KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
84-4N COLOAIRFOR×4KillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+1.3
95-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4AceAir Forceaced Alayna Tessena+1.9
106-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillKennedy Simonset Aylani Correa+2.0
117-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4BlockedKylie Cackovicblk Grace Fiaseu, Lainie Stapleton+2.1
127-5AIRFORN COLO×6KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
137-6N COLON COLO×6KillKylie Cackovicset Bella LePore+2.0
147-7N COLON COLO×6Attack errKennedy Simon+2.0
157-8N COLON COLO×6BlockedKarina Mendivilblk Maddie Rink+2.0
167-9N COLON COLO×6KillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
177-10N COLON COLO×6KillGillian Walton+1.7
188-10N COLOAIRFOR×3KillKennedy Simonset Grace Fiaseu+1.2
199-10AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillGrace Fiaseu+1.8
2010-10AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedGillian Waltonblk Grace Fiaseu+2.1
2110-11AIRFORN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.6
2211-11N COLOAIRFORServe errNorthern Colo.+1.6
2311-12AIRFORN COLO×3Attack errKarina Mendivil+1.6
2411-13N COLON COLO×3Attack errJenness Orcutt+2.1
2511-14N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.aced Karina Mendivil+1.9
2612-14N COLOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Samantha Pope+1.3
2712-15AIRFORN COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
2812-16N COLON COLO×3Bad setSamantha Pope+1.6
2912-17N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.2
3013-17N COLOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Samantha Pope+0.7
3113-18AIRFORN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
3214-18N COLOAIRFOR×4KillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+0.6
3315-18AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillSonia Okpara+1.3
3416-18AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errAlayna Tessena+1.8
3517-18AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillLainie Stapletonset Mia Loyd+2.5
3617-19AIRFORN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.1
3718-19N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+1.9
3818-20AIRFORN COLO×3BlockedKennedy Simonblk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton+2.2
3918-21N COLON COLO×3KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
4018-22N COLON COLO×3BlockedGrace Fiaseublk Maddie Rink+1.7
4119-22N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+0.7
4219-23AIRFORN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.2
4319-24N COLON COLOAttack errKennedy Simon+0.7
4420-24N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Samantha Pope+0.1
4520-25AIRFORN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Karina Mendivil+0.3
Set 3
11-0N COLOAIRFORBlockedGillian Waltonblk Sonia Okpara, Karina Mendivil+0.7
22-0AIRFORAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+1.0
32-1AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.7
42-2N COLON COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
53-2N COLOAIRFOR×4KillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+0.7
64-2AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errGillian Walton+1.0
75-2AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errSummer Snead+1.1
86-2AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+1.0
96-3AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.7
106-4N COLON COLOAttack errKennedy Simon+1.0
117-4N COLOAIRFOR×3KillLainie Stapletonset Mia Loyd+0.8
128-4AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedKylie Cackovicblk Grace Fiaseu+1.1
139-4AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillKennedy Simonset Aylani Correa+1.0
149-5AIRFORN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.6
1510-5N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+0.8
1610-6AIRFORN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.6
1711-6N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Samantha Pope+0.8
1812-6AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Jasmine Ogren+0.9
1912-7AIRFORN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.5
2012-8N COLON COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
2113-8N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Samantha Pope+0.8
2214-8AIRFORAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Grace Fiaseu+0.9
2314-9AIRFORN COLOServe errAir Force+0.5
2415-9N COLOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Samantha Pope+0.7
2516-9AIRFORAIRFORKillLainie Stapletonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.7
2616-10AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.3
2716-11N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.6
2817-11N COLOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+0.7
2917-12AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
3018-12N COLOAIRFOR×5KillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+0.6
3119-12AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errGillian Walton+0.6
3220-12AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errKylie Cackovic+0.4
3321-12AIRFORAIRFOR×5BlockedKylie Cackovicblk Grace Fiaseu, Lainie Stapleton+0.2
3422-12AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errGillian Walton+0.1
3522-13AIRFORN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
3623-13N COLOAIRFORAttack errKennedy Simon·
3724-13AIRFORAIRFORAttack errLeila Ballard·
3824-14AIRFORN COLO×4KillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
3924-15N COLON COLO×4KillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Bella LePore·
4024-16N COLON COLO×4AceNorthern Colo.·
4124-17N COLON COLO×4KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
4225-17N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Ella Vogel·
Set 4
11-0AIRFORAIRFORBlockedAlayna Tessenablk Lainie Stapleton+2.6
21-1AIRFORN COLO×3BlockedKennedy Simonblk Addison Roark+1.8
31-2N COLON COLO×3Attack errKennedy Simon+2.5
41-3N COLON COLO×3KillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Mia Loyd+2.3
52-3N COLOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Mia Loyd+1.7
62-4AIRFORN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
72-5N COLON COLOKillSummer Snead+2.2
83-5N COLOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+1.5
93-6AIRFORN COLOServe errAir Force+1.6
103-7N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.aced Kennedy Simon+2.0
114-7N COLOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Lainie Stapleton+1.3
125-7AIRFORAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Samantha Pope+2.2
135-8AIRFORN COLOServe errAir Force+1.7
146-8N COLOAIRFORAttack errGillian Walton+1.6
156-9AIRFORN COLO×3Serve errAir Force+1.7
166-10N COLON COLO×3BlockedKarina Mendivilblk Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.1
176-11N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
187-11N COLOAIRFOR×3Bad setNerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.1
198-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillKarina Mendivilset Mia Loyd+1.9
209-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3AceAir Forceaced Alayna Tessena+2.3
219-12AIRFORN COLOServe errAir Force+1.9
229-13N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.aced Karina Mendivil+2.2
2310-13N COLOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+1.4
2410-14AIRFORN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Sonia Okpara+1.6
2511-14N COLOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+1.4
2611-15AIRFORN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
2712-15N COLOAIRFORKillKennedy Simonset Mia Loyd+1.4
2812-16AIRFORN COLOBlockedKennedy Simonblk Summer Snead, Cy Rae Campbell+1.7
2913-16N COLOAIRFORBlockedSummer Sneadblk Grace Fiaseu+1.4
3013-17AIRFORN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Bella LePore+1.7
3113-18N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.aced Karina Mendivil+1.8
3214-18N COLOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Mia Loyd+1.0
3314-19AIRFORN COLO×4KillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.3
3414-20N COLON COLO×4BlockedSonia Okparablk Leila Ballard+1.1
3514-21N COLON COLO×4AceNorthern Colo.+0.6
3614-22N COLON COLO×4Attack errKarina Mendivil+0.3
3715-22N COLOAIRFORAttack errLeila Ballard+0.1
3815-23AIRFORN COLO×3KillAddison Roarkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.1
3915-24N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.·
4015-25N COLON COLO×3BlockedKarina Mendivilblk Addison Roark·

Score shown after each rally, Air Force first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).