FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Long Beach St. def. CSU Bakersfield 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Long Beach St. 91.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Long Beach St. won at CSU Bakersfield 3-0 (25-18, 25-18, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Long Beach St.'s Sidney Hamaker led with 12 kills.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set123Sets
LBSU2525253
CSUBAK1818190

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.429 and 12 kills for Sidney Hamaker as Long Beach St. rolled past CSU Bakersfield.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.2 points. CSU Bakersfield peaked at 10% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave Long Beach St. 92% before first serve.

Long Beach St.CSU Bakersfield
  • Break %+15.4 pts
    57.542.1

    Points won on own serve: 42 of 73 vs 24 of 57. CSU Bakersfield sided out 42.5% of the time.

  • Hitting+.198
    .299.101

    Kills and errors: 38–12 vs 33–23.

  • Longest run+4
    117

    Long Beach St. scored 11 straight in the first set to go from 6–6 to a 17–6 lead. The set finished 25–18.

CSU Bakersfield above 50Long Beach St. belowMax swing 1.2%

Long Beach St.CSU Bakersfield

Aces
Long Beach St. 8·CSU Bakersfield 4
Serve err
Long Beach St. 6·CSU Bakersfield 5
Blocks
Long Beach St. 6·CSU Bakersfield 52 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Long Beach St. 30·CSU Bakersfield 28

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · Long Beach St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.2% CSUBAKrally 130 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.2% to CSU Bakersfield — set 1, LBSU 3-4 CSUBAK. Kill by Suelen Lima. CSUBAK win probability 8% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LBSU 90.8%9.2% CSUBAK

Long Beach St. wins

3-0
45.8%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
13.5%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
1.2%
3-1
2.8%
3-2
5.2%
LBSU break %
47.9% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
37.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Suelen LimaKill+1.2%

    Kill by Suelen Lima

    Set 1 · LBSU 3-4 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 8% → 9%

  2. 02
    Reese JacksonAttack error+1.0%

    Attack error by Reese Jackson

    Set 1 · LBSU 6-5 CSUBAK · LBSU 91% → 92%

  3. 03
    Chloe JohnsonAttack error+1.0%

    Attack error by Chloe Johnson

    Set 1 · LBSU 3-3 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 7% → 8%

  4. 04

    Kill by Pola Bujnarowska

    Set 1 · LBSU 8-6 CSUBAK · LBSU 92% → 93%

  5. 05
    Suelen LimaKill+0.9%

    Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Samantha Capinpin)

    Set 1 · LBSU 4-5 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 9% → 10%

  6. 06

    Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Samantha Capinpin)

    Set 1 · LBSU 6-6 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 8% → 9%

  7. 07
    Long Beach St.Ace+0.8%

    Long Beach St. ace on Suelen Lima

    Set 1 · LBSU 9-6 CSUBAK · LBSU 93% → 94%

  8. 08
    CSU BakersfieldService error+0.8%

    CSU Bakersfield service error

    Set 1 · LBSU 5-5 CSUBAK · LBSU 90% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312321.42911260010.513.5
37113.462221250010.58.5
3507.71400020132.57.5
34116.18811062010.55.5
34111.27300000111.55.5
3001.000101300000
35615-.06700000010.55.5
31011.000321400003
3001.000130400003
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals381287.299298630428675
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39930.0000003210110
38421.190300721019
37212.41700100031.58.5
36111.455000100217
32110.10000000010.52.5
3013-.3331621400002
3002.000510700001
3000–211610001
2046-.667000000000
2000–001000000
1113.000000000001
1001.000000000000
1000–001000000
Team totals332399.101264528826555

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Long Beach St. vs CSU Bakersfield

Season series · Long Beach St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 11 LBSU · CSUBAK 7

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 11 LBSUCSUBAK 7

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 LBSUCSUBAK 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 8 LBSUCSUBAK 3

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = Long Beach St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Long Beach St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%4/5
40%2/5
2
31%4/13
60%6/10
3
67%4/6
20%1/5
4
100%4/4
60%6/10
5
50%3/6
50%3/6
6
67%2/3
85%11/13
All
57%21/37
59%29/49

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%4/8
0%0/3
2
44%4/9
64%7/11
3
80%4/5
56%5/9
4
33%3/9
0%0/4
5
20%3/15
0%0/3
6
67%2/3
57%4/7
All
41%20/49
43%16/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#LBSU-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSUBAKLBSUKillPola Bujnarowskaset Madi Maxwell+0.6
22-0LBSULBSUAttack errLeylah Duran+0.8
32-1LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Suelen Lima+0.6
43-1CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.5
53-2LBSUCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.6
63-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errChloe Johnson+1.0
73-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Lima+1.2
84-4CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.7
94-5LBSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.9
105-5CSUBAKLBSUServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.8
116-5LBSULBSUAttack errReese Jackson+1.0
126-6LBSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+0.8
137-6CSUBAKLBSU×11Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.7
148-6LBSULBSU×11KillPola Bujnarowska+0.9
159-6LBSULBSU×11AceLong Beach St.aced Suelen Lima+0.8
1610-6LBSULBSU×11Attack errReese Jackson+0.6
1711-6LBSULBSU×11KillKendal Murphyset Madi Maxwell+0.5
1812-6LBSULBSU×11AceLong Beach St.aced Anna Bacchin+0.3
1913-6LBSULBSU×11BlockedSuelen Limablk Kendal Murphy, Pola Bujnarowska+0.2
2014-6LBSULBSU×11Attack errReese Jackson+0.2
2115-6LBSULBSU×11Attack errSuelen Lima+0.1
2216-6LBSULBSU×11Attack errAnna Bacchin·
2317-6LBSULBSU×11KillMadi Maxwellset Laurel Barsocchini·
2417-7LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz·
2517-8CSUBAKCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz·
2618-8CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell·
2718-9LBSUCSUBAKServe errLong Beach St.·
2819-9CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell·
2920-9LBSULBSUBlockedAnna Bacchinblk Pola Bujnarowska·
3020-10LBSUCSUBAK×7KillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz·
3120-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×7KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz·
3220-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×7KillJordyn Waite-Ward·
3320-13CSUBAKCSUBAK×7Attack errChloe Johnson·
3420-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×7Attack errSidney Hamaker+0.1
3520-15CSUBAKCSUBAK×7BlockedChloe Johnsonblk Leylah Duran, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
3620-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×7KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
3721-16CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.3
3822-16LBSULBSUKillReagan Hope+0.2
3922-17LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Suelen Lima+0.1
4023-17CSUBAKLBSUKillChloe Johnsonset Madi Maxwell+0.1
4124-17LBSULBSUAceLong Beach St.+0.1
4224-18LBSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin·
4325-18CSUBAKLBSUKillMadi Maxwellset Analiese Gagliano·
Set 2
11-0LBSULBSUAceLong Beach St.aced Analiese Gagliano+0.6
22-0LBSULBSUKillKendal Murphyset Sidney Hamaker+0.5
32-1LBSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
43-1CSUBAKLBSU×5Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.4
54-1LBSULBSU×5KillChloe Johnsonset Izzy Mahaffey+0.4
65-1LBSULBSU×5KillChloe Johnsonset Madi Maxwell+0.4
76-1LBSULBSU×5BlockedSuelen Limablk Sidney Hamaker, Pola Bujnarowska+0.3
87-1LBSULBSU×5KillPola Bujnarowskaset Madi Maxwell+0.2
97-2LBSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.1
107-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kendal Murphy+0.3
118-3CSUBAKLBSUAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
128-4LBSUCSUBAKServe errLong Beach St.+0.2
139-4CSUBAKLBSU×4Bad setJordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
1410-4LBSULBSU×4Attack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
1511-4LBSULBSU×4Attack errReese Jackson+0.2
1612-4LBSULBSU×4KillReagan Hopeset Madi Maxwell+0.1
1712-5LBSUCSUBAKServe errLong Beach St.+0.1
1813-5CSUBAKLBSUKillReagan Hopeset Madi Maxwell+0.1
1913-6LBSUCSUBAKKillTorrin Higginbothamset Analiese Gagliano+0.1
2014-6CSUBAKLBSUKillMadi Maxwell+0.1
2115-6LBSULBSUKillMadi Maxwellset Madi Maxwell+0.1
2215-7LBSUCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz·
2316-7CSUBAKLBSUKillMadi Maxwellset Izzy Mahaffey·
2416-8LBSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz·
2516-9CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedSidney Hamakerblk Leylah Duran, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
2617-9CSUBAKLBSUKillKendal Murphyset Madi Maxwell+0.1
2717-10LBSUCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz·
2817-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errSidney Hamaker+0.1
2917-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedMadi Maxwellblk Suelen Lima+0.2
3018-12CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.1
3118-13LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Suelen Lima+0.1
3219-13CSUBAKLBSU×3BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Chloe Johnson+0.1
3320-13LBSULBSU×3KillReagan Hopeset Madi Maxwell+0.1
3421-13LBSULBSU×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
3521-14LBSUCSUBAKServe errLong Beach St.·
3622-14CSUBAKLBSU×3KillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell·
3723-14LBSULBSU×3Attack errTorrin Higginbotham·
3824-14LBSULBSU×3Attack errDefne Yanik·
3924-15LBSUCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz·
4024-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield·
4124-17CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz·
4224-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillLeylah Duranset Madi Collins·
4325-18CSUBAKLBSUServe errCSU Bakersfield·
Set 3
11-0CSUBAKLBSU×4KillPola Bujnarowskaset Madi Maxwell+0.2
22-0LBSULBSU×4AceLong Beach St.aced Suelen Lima+0.2
33-0LBSULBSU×4Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
44-0LBSULBSU×4KillSidney Hamakerset Kendal Murphy+0.2
54-1LBSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.1
65-1CSUBAKLBSUKillPola Bujnarowskaset Madi Maxwell+0.1
75-2LBSUCSUBAKBlockedChloe Johnsonblk Defne Yanik, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
86-2CSUBAKLBSUKillChloe Johnsonset Izzy Mahaffey+0.1
96-3LBSUCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
106-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errChloe Johnson+0.2
116-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errChloe Johnson+0.3
127-5CSUBAKLBSUKillMadi Maxwellset Sidney Hamaker+0.2
137-6LBSUCSUBAK×3Serve errLong Beach St.+0.2
147-7CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfield+0.4
157-8CSUBAK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
168-8CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.3
179-8LBSULBSUAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.4
189-9LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+0.3
199-10CSUBAKCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.5
2010-10CSUBAKLBSUKillIzzy Mahaffey+0.3
2110-11LBSUCSUBAKServe errLong Beach St.+0.4
2211-11CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.3
2311-12LBSUCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
2412-12CSUBAKLBSU×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
2513-12LBSULBSU×3AceLong Beach St.aced Anna Bacchin+0.4
2614-12LBSULBSU×3AceLong Beach St.+0.4
2714-13LBSUCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
2814-14CSUBAKCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Madi Maxwell+0.5
2915-14CSUBAKLBSUKillChloe Johnsonset Madi Maxwell+0.3
3015-15LBSUCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Analiese Gagliano+0.4
3116-15CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell+0.4
3216-16LBSUCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.4
3317-16CSUBAKLBSU×8Attack errAnna Bacchin+0.4
3418-16LBSULBSU×8BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Pola Bujnarowska, Madi Maxwell+0.5
3519-16LBSULBSU×8KillKendal Murphyset Kinga Ziolkowska+0.4
3620-16LBSULBSU×8Attack errSuelen Lima+0.3
3721-16LBSULBSU×8Attack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
3822-16LBSULBSU×8Attack errLuiza Da Cruz+0.1
3923-16LBSULBSU×8AceLong Beach St.·
4024-16LBSULBSU×8KillMadi Maxwellset Laurel Barsocchini·
4124-17LBSUCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz·
4224-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errKendal Murphy·
4324-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Kendal Murphy·
4425-19CSUBAKLBSUKillSidney Hamakerset Madi Maxwell·

Score shown after each rally, Long Beach St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).