Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 8, 2026Watch on MW+

Wyoming def. Air Force 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Wyoming 70.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Wyoming beat visiting Air Force 3-1 (25-21, 22-25, 25-23, 25-23) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. Rylee Heinz led Wyoming with 13 kills; Air Force's Alysa Walker had a match-high 21.

Data through · final Oct 8

Set1234Sets
AIRFOR212523231
WYO252225253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Wyoming won it steadily.

Win probability never moved more than 7.7 points on one rally; Air Force topped out at 49% in Set 3. Wyoming went in as RallyIQ's 70% pick.

No single phase cleared the thresholds (8 pts of break %, .080 of hitting, a 5-point run).

Wyoming above 50Air Force belowMax swing 7.7%

Air ForceWyoming

Hitting
Air Force .188·Wyoming .228
Aces
Air Force 4·Wyoming 3
Serve err
Air Force 11·Wyoming 12
Blocks
Air Force 11·Wyoming 8.54 BS · 14 BA vs 2 BS · 13 BA
Digs
Air Force 60·Wyoming 64

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Wyoming above 50 · Air Force below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.7% WYOrally 189 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.7% to Wyoming — set 3, AIRFOR 23-25 WYO. Kill by Emma Winter (set by Sara Quigley). WYO win probability 76% → 84%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

AIRFOR 33.9%66.1% WYO

Air Force wins

3-0
6.8%
3-1
12.1%
3-2
15.0%

Wyoming wins

3-0
20.7%
3-1
25.4%
3-2
20.0%
AIRFOR break %
38.7% vs this opp
WYO break %
41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Emma WinterKill+7.7%

    Kill by Emma Winter (set by Sara Quigley)

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 23-25 WYO · WYO 76% → 84%

  2. 02
    Abi MilbyKill+6.5%

    Kill by Abi Milby (set by Maddy Stucky)

    Set 4 · AIRFOR 23-25 WYO · WYO 93% → 100%

  3. 03
    Emma WinterKill+6.0%

    Kill by Emma Winter (set by Sara Quigley)

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 22-24 WYO · WYO 74% → 80%

  4. 04
    Rylee HeinzAttack error+5.3%

    Attack error by Rylee Heinz

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 21-22 WYO · AIRFOR 23% → 28%

  5. 05

    Kill by Paige Lauterwasser (set by Sara Quigley)

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 21-23 WYO · WYO 72% → 77%

  6. 06
    Alysa WalkerAttack error+4.8%

    Attack error by Alysa Walker

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 14-15 WYO · WYO 63% → 68%

  7. 07

    Alysa Walker stuffed by Ruby Jensen & Abi Milby

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 14-14 WYO · WYO 58% → 63%

  8. 08

    Annamaria Ramos stuffed by Abi Milby & Ruby Jensen

    Set 3 · AIRFOR 15-17 WYO · WYO 68% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4211058.19000281031.522.5
410339.17910010002111
45014.357000101227
42412-.16710250254.56.5
45321.095000700216
4000–2211800001
48116.438000201019
4000–2133800003
4000–4021010000
2000–001100000
Team totals5121160.188494116034141192
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413529.27600000132.515.5
411633.1521003012213
410331.226300163010.510.5
48426.15401180010.59.5
4405.80024121000005
4011-1.0001021000000
49215.46700030031.510.5
4000–2313600001
4000–204710000
4000–200100000
35318.111000000216
2214.25000000010.52.5
Team totals6225162.228563126442138.597

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Air Force vs Wyoming

Season series · Wyoming leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 AIRFOR · WYO 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 AIRFORWYO 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 AIRFORWYO 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 AIRFORWYO 4

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 2 AIRFORWYO 3

Bars above the line = Wyoming leads, below = Air Force leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Air Force

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%12/22
29%4/14
2
73%11/15
37%7/19
3
56%9/16
52%11/21
4
53%9/17
10%1/10
5
50%8/16
40%6/15
6
80%8/10
43%6/14
All
59%57/96
38%35/93

Wyoming

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
44%8/18
2
55%11/20
33%6/18
3
59%10/17
33%5/15
4
60%9/15
44%7/16
5
80%8/10
53%9/17
6
62%8/13
33%4/12
All
62%58/93
41%39/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#AIRFOR-WYOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+1.5
20-2WYOWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.1
31-2WYOAIRFORAttack errEmma Winter+1.4
41-3AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.4
51-4WYOWYOAttack errGrace Fiaseu+1.9
62-4WYOAIRFOR×4Serve errWyoming+1.3
73-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillAlysa Walkerset Grace Fiaseu+2.1
84-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errEmma Winter+2.4
95-4AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errAddy Thorington+2.6
105-5AIRFORWYOAttack errAlysa Walker+1.7
116-5WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.8
126-6AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+1.7
136-7WYOWYO×3KillRuby Jensen+2.5
146-8WYOWYO×3KillAbi Milbyset Rya Fingerlin+2.4
157-8WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+1.6
167-9AIRFORWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+1.7
177-10WYOWYOKillRylee Heinz+2.2
188-10WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+1.4
198-11AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.5
209-11WYOAIRFORBlockedEmma Winterblk Grace Fiaseu, Annamaria Ramos+1.5
219-12AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.6
229-13WYOWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.0
2310-13WYOAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+1.2
2411-13AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedRylee Heinzblk Grace Fiaseu+2.2
2512-13AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.7
2612-14AIRFORWYOKillSara Quigleyset Paige Lauterwasser+2.0
2712-15WYOWYOAttack errJenness Orcutt+2.6
2813-15WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.6
2913-16AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.8
3013-17WYOWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Rya Fingerlin+2.2
3114-17WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.2
3214-18AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+1.5
3315-18WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+1.2
3415-19AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+1.5
3515-20WYOWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+1.5
3615-21WYOWYO×3KillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+0.9
3716-21WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+0.3
3816-22AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+0.5
3917-22WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Aylani Correa+0.2
4018-22AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseu+0.6
4118-23AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+0.8
4218-24WYOWYOAttack errAlysa Walker+0.4
4319-24WYOAIRFOR×3Attack errAddy Thorington+0.1
4420-24AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errAddy Thorington+0.2
4521-24AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedEmma Winterblk Grace Fiaseu, Alysa Walker+0.5
4621-25AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+0.8
Set 2
10-1WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Aylani Correa+1.8
21-1WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.3
31-2AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+1.2
42-2WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.3
53-2AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Paige Lauterwasser+2.0
63-3AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.3
74-3WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.4
84-4AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+1.4
95-4WYOAIRFOR×5KillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.5
106-4AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errRuby Jensen+2.2
117-4AIRFORAIRFOR×5BlockedRuby Jensenblk Grace Fiaseu+2.2
128-4AIRFORAIRFOR×5BlockedAddy Thoringtonblk Bella Christensen+2.2
139-4AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errRuby Jensen+2.0
149-5AIRFORWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+1.1
159-6WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Alysa Walker+1.9
1610-6WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.6
1710-7AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.3
1811-7WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+1.6
1911-8AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Maddy Stucky+1.3
2011-9WYOWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.2
2112-9WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.8
2212-10AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.5
2312-11WYOWYOKillEmma Winterset Peyton Carruth+2.4
2413-11WYOAIRFOR×3KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+1.9
2514-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.7
2615-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedRylee Heinzblk Sonia Okpara+2.5
2715-12AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.3
2815-13WYOWYOKillSara Quigleyset Paige Lauterwasser+2.4
2916-13WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+2.0
3017-13AIRFORAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+2.6
3117-14AIRFORWYO×3KillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+1.3
3217-15WYOWYO×3AceWyoming+2.5
3317-16WYOWYO×3KillAddy Thorington+2.9
3418-16WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+2.4
3519-16AIRFORAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+3.3
3619-17AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Maddy Stucky+1.7
3720-17WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.4
3821-17AIRFORAIRFORAttack errAbi Milby+2.7
3921-18AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+1.1
4022-18WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.9
4122-19AIRFORWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+1.0
4222-20WYOWYO×3Attack errAnnamaria Ramos+2.4
4322-21WYOWYO×3Attack errAlysa Walker+3.7
4423-21WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.8
4524-21AIRFORAIRFORAttack errPaige Lauterwasser+4.0
4624-22AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Anna Melgren+1.0
4725-22WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.6
Set 3
10-1AIRFORWYOAttack errAlysa Walker+2.1
20-2WYOWYOAttack errJenness Orcutt+2.9
31-2WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+2.0
41-3AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+2.0
52-3WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.0
63-3AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Paige Lauterwasser+3.3
73-4AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Anna Melgren+2.2
84-4WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.3
94-5AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+2.3
104-6WYOWYOAttack errBella Christensen+3.2
115-6WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+2.2
125-7AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+2.2
136-7WYOAIRFOR×4KillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+2.2
147-7AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errRylee Heinz+3.6
158-7AIRFORAIRFOR×4AceAir Forceaced Anna Melgren+3.9
169-7AIRFORAIRFOR×4BlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt+4.1
179-8AIRFORWYOAttack errAnnamaria Ramos+2.6
189-9WYOWYOBlockedGrace Fiaseublk Rylee Heinz+4.0
1910-9WYOAIRFORBlockedEmma Winterblk Annamaria Ramos, Grace Fiaseu+2.9
2010-10AIRFORWYOBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Emma Winter, Rylee Heinz+2.8
2111-10WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Annamaria Ramos+3.0
2211-11AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.9
2312-11WYOAIRFOR×3KillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+3.2
2413-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+4.7
2514-11AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walkerset Aylani Correa+4.6
2614-12AIRFORWYO×4KillSara Quigleyset Emma Winter+2.7
2714-13WYOWYO×4Attack errAlysa Walker+4.5
2814-14WYOWYO×4BlockedAlysa Walkerblk Ruby Jensen, Abi Milby+4.8
2914-15WYOWYO×4Attack errAlysa Walker+4.8
3015-15WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+3.4
3115-16AIRFORWYO×3KillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+3.4
3215-17WYOWYO×3BlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Abi Milby, Ruby Jensen+4.7
3315-18WYOWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+4.1
3416-18WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.3
3516-19AIRFORWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+2.9
3616-20WYOWYOKillRylee Heinz+3.2
3717-20WYOAIRFORAttack errAbi Milby+1.5
3818-20AIRFORAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+3.4
3918-21AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Maddy Stucky+3.1
4018-22WYOWYOKillRylee Heinz+3.1
4119-22WYOAIRFOR×3KillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+1.2
4220-22AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+3.1
4321-22AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errRylee Heinz+5.3
4421-23AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+5.2
4522-23WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Aylani Correa+3.7
4622-24AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+6.0
4723-24WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.3
4823-25AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+7.7
Set 4
10-1WYOWYOBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Emma Winter, Rylee Heinz+2.6
21-1WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+1.8
31-2AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.8
42-2WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.9
52-3AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.8
63-3WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.9
73-4AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+1.9
84-4WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.0
94-5AIRFORWYOKillAnna Williamsset Maddy Stucky+1.9
104-6WYOWYOAttack errGrace Fiaseu+2.7
115-6WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.8
125-7AIRFORWYOKillAnna Williamsset Maddy Stucky+1.9
136-7WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+1.9
147-7AIRFORAIRFORAttack errPeyton Carruth+3.1
157-8AIRFORWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+2.1
168-8WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.2
179-8AIRFORAIRFORBlockedRylee Heinzblk Sonia Okpara, Alysa Walker+3.4
189-9AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.3
1910-9WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.5
2011-9AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Paige Lauterwasser+3.7
2111-10AIRFORWYO×3KillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.3
2211-11WYOWYO×3KillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+3.6
2311-12WYOWYO×3BlockedAlysa Walkerblk Emma Winter+3.6
2412-12WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.5
2512-13AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+2.5
2612-14WYOWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+3.5
2713-14WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.3
2813-15AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+2.5
2913-16WYOWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+3.2
3013-17WYOWYO×3BlockedGrace Fiaseublk Anna Williams, Paige Lauterwasser, Abi Milby+2.6
3114-17WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.4
3215-17AIRFORAIRFORBlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt+2.8
3315-18AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.3
3416-18WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Aylani Correa+2.0
3516-19AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Maddy Stucky+2.4
3616-20WYOWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+2.7
3717-20WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.3
3818-20AIRFORAIRFORBlockedEmma Winterblk Alysa Walker, Sonia Okpara+2.9
3918-21AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.7
4018-22WYOWYOBlockedJenness Orcuttblk Addy Thorington, Rylee Heinz+2.6
4119-22WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.0
4220-22AIRFORAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+2.6
4320-23AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.9
4421-23WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+1.6
4521-24AIRFORWYOKillSara Quigleyset Paige Lauterwasser+2.9
4622-24WYOAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.1
4723-24AIRFORAIRFORAttack errAnna Williams+4.0
4823-25AIRFORWYOKillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+6.5

Score shown after each rally, Air Force first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).