Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on MW+

Wyoming def. Air Force 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Wyoming 55.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Wyoming won at Air Force 3-1 (23-25, 25-22, 28-26, 29-27) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Wyoming's Paige Lauterwasser led with 20 kills.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
WYO232528293
AIRFOR252226271

Match story · written from the play-by-play

7 aces from Anna Melgren, and Wyoming needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Wyoming's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Wyoming 56% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Wyoming 10–16 Air Force

    Down 10–16, Wyoming scored 7 straight to lead 17–16. The match swung to Wyoming.

    Wyoming 31% → 58%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Wyoming 20–16 Air Force

    Down 16–20, Air Force scored 6 straight to lead 22–20.

    Wyoming 96% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Wyoming 26–26 Air Force

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Wyoming, enough to take the set 29–27 and win the match 3–1.

    Wyoming 75% → >99%

Air Force above 50Wyoming belowMax swing 13.3%

WyomingAir Force

Sideout %
Wyoming 61.4·Air Force 58.7
Break %
Wyoming 41.3·Air Force 38.6
Hitting
Wyoming .232·Air Force .207
Longest run
Wyoming 7·Air Force 6

Paige Lauterwasser
20 kills on .229, 21 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Air Force above 50 · Wyoming below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+13.3% AIRFORrally 205 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.3% to Air Force — set 3, WYO 24-24 AIRFOR. Attack error by Paige Lauterwasser. AIRFOR win probability 32% → 45%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WYO 51.5%48.5% AIRFOR

Wyoming wins

3-0
13.1%
3-1
19.4%
3-2
19.0%

Air Force wins

3-0
11.9%
3-1
18.1%
3-2
18.5%
WYO break %
40.4% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %
40.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paige LauterwasserAttack error+13.3%

    Attack error by Paige Lauterwasser

    Set 3 · WYO 24-24 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 32% → 45%

  2. 02
    WyomingAce+13.0%

    Wyoming ace on Ella Vogel

    Set 3 · WYO 28-26 AIRFOR · WYO 64% → 77%

  3. 03
    Sonia OkparaAttack error+12.7%

    Attack error by Sonia Okpara

    Set 4 · WYO 27-26 AIRFOR · WYO 75% → 88%

  4. 04

    Kill by Paige Lauterwasser (set by Addy Thorington)

    Set 4 · WYO 29-27 AIRFOR · WYO 88% → 100%

  5. 05
    Rylee HeinzAttack error+10.5%

    Attack error by Rylee Heinz

    Set 1 · WYO 23-25 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 54% → 64%

  6. 06
    Alysa WalkerKill+10.2%

    Kill by Alysa Walker

    Set 1 · WYO 23-24 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 44% → 54%

  7. 07

    Kill by Peyton Carruth

    Set 3 · WYO 25-24 AIRFOR · WYO 55% → 64%

  8. 08
    Sonia OkparaKill+9.1%

    Kill by Sonia Okpara (set by Mia Loyd)

    Set 3 · WYO 25-25 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 36% → 45%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420948.22901119000021
412631.19411171010.513.5
49325.24011050010.510.5
45317.11800000111.56.5
4205.4000011500002
4004.0003501500000
413025.5200000012215
4000–076540007
44316.06300030010.54.5
4216.167100100002
4004.00024021000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–300700000
4000–000000000
Team totals6725181.232651012775265105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418552.25000110002119
410218.4441124022314
49315.4000003114312
48744.0231101010009
43314.00000040010.53.5
4001.0002422900002
49122.36410030132.511.5
4114.000100000001
4001.000110740001
4001.0001011630000
4001.000700010000
4001.0001100500000
4000–000000000
9Brooksie IshamOH
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5822174.2074856711041210100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Wyoming vs Air Force

Season series · Wyoming leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 WYO · AIRFOR 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 WYOAIRFOR 5

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 WYOAIRFOR 3

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 7 WYOAIRFOR 4

Set 4

29-27

Longest run 4 WYOAIRFOR 6

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Wyoming leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wyoming

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%12/25
44%8/18
2
86%12/14
29%5/17
3
52%11/21
54%14/26
4
71%10/14
29%4/14
5
60%9/15
40%6/15
6
67%8/12
43%6/14
All
61%62/101
41%43/104

Air Force

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
50%10/20
2
52%12/23
33%6/18
3
56%10/18
39%7/18
4
67%10/15
29%4/14
5
53%9/17
29%4/14
6
73%8/11
47%8/17
All
59%61/104
39%39/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#WYO-AIRFORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0AIRFORWYOKillPeyton Carruthset Sara Quigley+1.7
21-1WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.7
32-1AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+1.8
42-2WYOAIRFOR×5KillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.8
52-3AIRFORAIRFOR×5Attack errRylee Heinz+2.7
62-4AIRFORAIRFOR×5KillSonia Okpara+2.7
72-5AIRFORAIRFOR×5BlockedEmma Winterblk Alysa Walker, Sonia Okpara+2.7
82-6AIRFORAIRFOR×5KillAlysa Walkerset Ella Vogel+2.5
93-6AIRFORWYOKillPeyton Carruthset Emma Winter+1.5
103-7WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+1.7
114-7AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+1.5
124-8WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.8
135-8AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+1.5
146-8WYOWYOKillAbi Milbyset Rya Fingerlin+2.6
156-9WYOAIRFORAttack errPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.0
167-9AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+1.8
177-10WYOAIRFORAttack errAbi Milbyset Alysa Walker+2.0
187-11AIRFORAIRFORKillPaige Lauterwasser+2.7
198-11AIRFORWYOAttack errBella Christensenset Ella Vogel+1.6
208-12WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.9
218-13AIRFORAIRFORBlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Bella Christensen, Sonia Okpara+2.4
229-13AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.3
239-14WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.6
2410-14AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+1.3
2511-14WYOWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.4
2611-15WYOAIRFORAttack errPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+2.0
2712-15AIRFORWYO×3KillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+1.6
2813-15WYOWYO×3BlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Ruby Jensen, Abi Milby+2.9
2914-15WYOWYO×3BlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Ruby Jensen+3.5
3014-16WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Samantha Pope+2.7
3115-16AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+2.5
3216-16WYOWYO×3Attack errAnnamaria Ramos+4.1
3317-16WYOWYO×3KillAbi Milbyset Rya Fingerlin+4.3
3417-17WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Jenness Orcutt+3.0
3517-18AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Anna Melgren+4.7
3618-18AIRFORWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+3.1
3719-18WYOWYO×3KillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+5.0
3820-18WYOWYO×3BlockedGrace Fiaseublk Rylee Heinz+4.8
3920-19WYOAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+2.8
4020-20AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+5.3
4120-21AIRFORAIRFOR×3AceAir Forceaced Anna Melgren+6.1
4221-21AIRFORWYOAttack errAlysa Walkerset Ella Vogel+4.0
4321-22WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+4.8
4422-22AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+4.5
4523-22WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Sonia Okpara+8.1
4623-23WYOAIRFOR×3KillBella Christensenset Mia Loyd+5.2
4723-24AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walker+10.2
4823-25AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errRylee Heinz+10.5
Set 2
10-1WYOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseu+1.9
21-1AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+1.9
31-2WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.9
42-2AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+1.9
53-2WYOWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.8
63-3WYOAIRFOR×3Serve errWyoming+1.9
73-4AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedAddy Thoringtonblk Jenness Orcutt, Sonia Okpara+2.9
83-5AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillJenness Orcuttset Samantha Pope+3.0
94-5AIRFORWYOKillSara Quigley+1.9
104-6WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Neely Leathers+2.1
115-6AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Maddy Stucky+2.0
126-6WYOWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+3.1
136-7WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Neely Leathers+2.2
147-7AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.1
157-8WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Neely Leathers+2.2
168-8AIRFORWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.2
179-8WYOWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+3.3
1810-8WYOWYO×3Attack errBella Christensen+3.2
1910-9WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+2.1
2010-10AIRFORAIRFORAttack errEmma Winter+3.4
2111-10AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+2.4
2211-11WYOAIRFORAttack errAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.4
2312-11AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.5
2412-12WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+2.5
2513-12AIRFORWYOAttack errAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.6
2613-13WYOAIRFORBlockedAddy Thoringtonblk Jenness Orcutt+2.6
2714-13AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+2.7
2814-14WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Neely Leathers+2.7
2915-14AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.8
3015-15WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Neely Leathers+2.8
3115-16AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+4.5
3216-16AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+3.0
3317-16WYOWYO×3Attack errAnnamaria Ramos+4.6
3418-16WYOWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Rya Fingerlin+4.5
3518-17WYOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.8
3619-17AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+3.2
3719-18WYOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.9
3820-18AIRFORWYO×3BlockedBella Christensenblk Addy Thorington, Rylee Heinz+3.5
3921-18WYOWYO×3AceWyomingaced Annamaria Ramos+4.3
4022-18WYOWYO×3KillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+3.0
4122-19WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.1
4222-20AIRFORAIRFORAttack errAddy Thorington+2.9
4323-20AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+3.1
4423-21WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okpara+1.7
4524-21AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+3.2
4624-22WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okpara+1.2
4725-22AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.8
Set 3
10-1AIRFORAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.5
20-2AIRFORAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Grace Fiaseu+3.5
31-2AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+2.3
42-2WYOWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+3.5
52-3WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.5
62-4AIRFORAIRFORKillKarina Mendivilset Samantha Pope+3.7
73-4AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Anna Williams+2.4
84-4WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Neely Leathers+3.7
94-5WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.6
105-5AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+2.6
115-6WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Neely Leathers+2.7
125-7AIRFORAIRFORAceAir Forceaced Anna Melgren+3.9
136-7AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Maddy Stucky+2.5
146-8WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Neely Leathers+2.8
156-9AIRFORAIRFORBlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Jenness Orcutt, Grace Fiaseu+3.9
167-9AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+2.4
177-10WYOAIRFORAttack errAddy Thoringtonset Maddy Stucky+2.7
187-11AIRFORAIRFORAttack errAbi Milby+3.7
198-11AIRFORWYOKillAnna Williamsset Maddy Stucky+2.1
208-12WYOAIRFOR×4KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.6
218-13AIRFORAIRFOR×4BlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Sonia Okpara+3.2
228-14AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+2.6
238-15AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+1.9
249-15AIRFORWYOAttack errJenness Orcuttset Grace Fiaseu+0.9
2510-15WYOWYOKillAnna Williamsset Sara Quigley+1.8
2610-16WYOAIRFORBlockedEmma Winterblk Alysa Walker, Sonia Okpara+1.7
2711-16AIRFORWYO×7KillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+1.2
2812-16WYOWYO×7AceWyomingaced Aylani Correa+2.4
2913-16WYOWYO×7AceWyomingaced Aylani Correa+3.2
3014-16WYOWYO×7BlockedNeely Leathersblk Ruby Jensen, Emma Winter, Karina Mendivil+4.0
3115-16WYOWYO×7AceWyomingaced Ella Vogel+4.9
3216-16WYOWYO×7Attack errAlysa Walker+5.5
3317-16WYOWYO×7AceWyomingaced Ella Vogel+5.8
3417-17WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+4.0
3517-18AIRFORAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramos+6.3
3618-18AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+4.2
3718-19WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okpara+4.7
3819-19AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+4.5
3920-19WYOWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+7.3
4020-20WYOAIRFORKillKarina Mendivil+4.9
4121-20AIRFORWYO×3KillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+5.5
4222-20WYOWYO×3Attack errAlysa Walker+7.7
4323-20WYOWYO×3Attack errGrace Fiaseu+5.8
4423-21WYOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.2
4523-22AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseu+5.9
4624-22AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+6.8
4724-23WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.7
4824-24AIRFORAIRFORAttack errPaige Lauterwasser+13.3
4925-24AIRFORWYOKillPeyton Carruth+9.1
5025-25WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+9.1
5126-25AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+9.1
5226-26WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+9.1
5327-26AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+9.1
5428-26WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Ella Vogel+13.0
Set 4
11-0WYOWYOKillRylee Heinzset Sara Quigley+3.2
22-0WYOWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+3.2
32-1WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.1
43-1AIRFORWYO×3Serve errAir Force+2.2
54-1WYOWYO×3KillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+3.1
65-1WYOWYO×3AceWyomingaced Aylani Correa+2.8
75-2WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.7
86-2AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+2.0
96-3WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Annamaria Ramos+1.8
107-3AIRFORWYOAttack errAnnamaria Ramosset Ella Vogel+2.0
117-4WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+1.8
127-5AIRFORAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+3.0
138-5AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Maddy Stucky+2.3
149-5WYOWYOAttack errAnnamaria Ramos+3.0
159-6WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.8
1610-6AIRFORWYOKillRylee Heinzset Maddy Stucky+2.1
1710-7WYOAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+1.8
1811-7AIRFORWYOAttack errAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+2.1
1911-8WYOAIRFOR×4KillEmma Winter+1.8
2011-9AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errRylee Heinz+3.2
2111-10AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errAddy Thorington+3.8
2211-11AIRFORAIRFOR×4AceAir Forceaced Addy Thorington+4.2
2312-11AIRFORWYOKillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+3.0
2413-11WYOWYOAttack errSonia Okpara+4.3
2513-12WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+2.8
2614-12AIRFORWYO×4KillAddy Thoringtonset Sara Quigley+3.0
2715-12WYOWYO×4KillAbi Milbyset Maddy Stucky+4.1
2816-12WYOWYO×4Attack errSonia Okpara+3.4
2917-12WYOWYO×4Attack errAlysa Walker+2.7
3017-13WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+1.3
3118-13AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+1.8
3219-13WYOWYOAceWyomingaced Aylani Correa+1.8
3319-14WYOAIRFOR×3KillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+0.7
3419-15AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Grace Fiaseu+1.7
3519-16AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillRuby Jensen+2.6
3620-16AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Maddy Stucky+2.5
3720-17WYOAIRFOR×6KillGrace Fiaseuset Samantha Pope+1.7
3820-18AIRFORAIRFOR×6AceAir Forceaced Anna Melgren+3.7
3920-19AIRFORAIRFOR×6BlockedAnna Williamsblk Grace Fiaseu+5.2
4020-20AIRFORAIRFOR×6BlockedPaige Lauterwasserblk Jenness Orcutt, Grace Fiaseu+6.7
4120-21AIRFORAIRFOR×6Attack errPaige Lauterwasser+7.8
4220-22AIRFORAIRFOR×6Attack errAbi Milby+7.7
4321-22AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasser+4.0
4422-22WYOWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+8.5
4522-23WYOAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Aylani Correa+7.2
4623-23AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+6.7
4723-24WYOAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+8.9
4824-24AIRFORWYOServe errAir Force+8.9
4924-25WYOAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+8.9
5025-25AIRFORWYOKillEmma Winterset Sara Quigley+8.9
5125-26WYOAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+8.9
5226-26AIRFORWYOKillRuby Jensenset Sara Quigley+8.9
5327-26WYOWYOAttack errSonia Okpara+12.7
5427-27WYOAIRFORServe errWyoming+8.7
5528-27AIRFORWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Sara Quigley+8.7
5629-27WYOWYOKillPaige Lauterwasserset Addy Thorington+12.4

Score shown after each rally, Wyoming first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).