Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Loyola Chicago def. Davidson 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Loyola Chicago 76.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Loyola Chicago beat visiting Davidson 3-1 (10-25, 25-19, 25-20, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Leyna Nguyen led Loyola Chicago with 14 kills; Davidson's Elena Garcia-Guerrios had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
DAVID251920221
LOYCHI102525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

An 8–0 run in the second set broke it open for Loyola Chicago.

Win probability never moved more than 5.7 points on one rally; Davidson topped out at 60% in Set 2. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Loyola Chicago at 76%.

DavidsonLoyola Chicago
  • Longest run+1
    78

    Down 9–12 in the second set, Loyola Chicago scored 8 straight to lead 17–12. The set finished 25–19.

Loyola Chicago above 50Davidson belowMax swing 5.7%

DavidsonLoyola Chicago

Hitting
Davidson .228·Loyola Chicago .243
Aces
Davidson 9·Loyola Chicago 5
Serve err
Davidson 5·Loyola Chicago 7
Blocks
Davidson 7·Loyola Chicago 62 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Davidson 59·Loyola Chicago 60

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Loyola Chicago above 50 · Davidson below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.7% LOYCHIrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.7% to Loyola Chicago — set 4, DAVID 21-23 LOYCHI. Ace by Mya Ball. LOYCHI win probability 89% → 95%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAVID 27.2%72.8% LOYCHI

Davidson wins

3-0
5.0%
3-1
9.4%
3-2
12.8%

Loyola Chicago wins

3-0
25.3%
3-1
27.9%
3-2
19.6%
DAVID break %
39.9% vs this opp
LOYCHI break %
44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Mya BallAce+5.7%

    Ace by Mya Ball

    Set 4 · DAVID 21-23 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 89% → 95%

  2. 02

    Kill by Peyton Garrick (set by Kate Whiteley)

    Set 4 · DAVID 20-20 LOYCHI · DAVID 10% → 15%

  3. 03
    Chloe MorganKill+4.8%

    Kill by Chloe Morgan (set by Mya Ball)

    Set 3 · DAVID 16-17 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 68% → 73%

  4. 04
    Katie SchererKill+4.8%

    Kill by Katie Scherer (set by Mya Ball)

    Set 4 · DAVID 22-24 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 92% → 97%

  5. 05
    Kate MaleyKill+4.6%

    Kill by Kate Maley (set by Sam Falk)

    Set 4 · DAVID 21-22 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 85% → 89%

  6. 06

    Kill by Elena Garcia-Guerrios (set by Brooke Briscoe)

    Set 3 · DAVID 15-12 LOYCHI · DAVID 39% → 44%

  7. 07

    Kill by Elena Garcia-Guerrios (set by Brooke Briscoe)

    Set 3 · DAVID 14-12 LOYCHI · DAVID 34% → 39%

  8. 08
    Kate MaleyKill+4.6%

    Kill by Kate Maley (set by Emma Henry)

    Set 3 · DAVID 15-15 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 64% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415747.17002013010118
414333.3330126004217
413736.1670213000015
44012.33300000031.55.5
4205.400000000213
4012-.5004501160111.51.5
4000–2301600003
41011.000011300002
3000–100200000
2000–000000000
1000–100000000
Team totals4918136.2284995595210786
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414743.16301072010.515.5
410325.2800002002111
48421.19000011010.58.5
46114.35700210132.58.5
47114.42900000010.57.5
4001.0001812600001
411428.2500004010112
4001.0008211910002
4001.000010910001
4000–27021100000
Team totals5620148.243535760928685

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Davidson vs Loyola Chicago

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DAVID · LOYCHI 8

Set 1

25-10

Longest run 7 DAVIDLOYCHI 1

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 DAVIDLOYCHI 8

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 DAVIDLOYCHI 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 3 DAVIDLOYCHI 4

Bars above the line = Loyola Chicago leads, below = Davidson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
42%5/12
2
47%7/15
36%4/11
3
70%7/10
53%8/15
4
55%6/11
36%4/11
5
71%5/7
58%7/12
6
83%5/6
17%1/6
All
63%37/59
43%29/67

Loyola Chicago

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
25%2/8
2
41%7/17
22%2/9
3
70%7/10
53%8/15
4
40%6/15
30%3/10
5
71%5/7
50%5/10
6
83%5/6
29%2/7
All
57%38/67
37%22/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#DAVID-LOYCHISrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1LOYCHILOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+1.8
21-1LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.4
31-2DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.4
42-2LOYCHIDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.5
53-2DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedLeyna Nguyenblk Ariyana Johnson, Mia Compas+2.1
64-2DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidsonaced Leyna Nguyen+2.3
75-2DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errKatie Scherer+2.3
86-2DAVIDDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.3
96-3DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.5
107-3LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.8
117-4DAVIDLOYCHIServe errDavidson+1.5
128-4LOYCHIDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.8
138-5DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Claire Van Den Herik, Avary DeBlieck+1.5
149-5LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.9
1510-5DAVIDDAVIDAttack errKate Maley+2.3
1610-6DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Emma Henry+1.4
1711-6LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.8
1812-6DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
1912-7DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+1.2
2013-7LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.6
2113-8DAVIDLOYCHIServe errDavidson+1.1
2214-8LOYCHIDAVID×3Attack errKatie Scherer+1.6
2315-8DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedLeyna Nguyenblk Mia Compas, Ariyana Johnson+1.7
2416-8DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidson+1.3
2516-9DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+0.6
2617-9LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.9
2718-9DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidsonaced Jae Fitting+0.8
2818-10DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+0.3
2919-10LOYCHIDAVID×7KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.5
3020-10DAVIDDAVID×7Attack errKate Maley+0.4
3121-10DAVIDDAVID×7KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+0.2
3222-10DAVIDDAVID×7AceDavidson+0.1
3323-10DAVIDDAVID×7Attack errClaire Van Den Herik·
3424-10DAVIDDAVID×7AceDavidsonaced Leyna Nguyen·
3525-10DAVIDDAVID×7KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith·
Set 2
11-0DAVIDDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.9
22-0DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errKate Maley+3.0
33-0DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedAvary DeBlieckblk Elena Garcia-Guerrios+3.1
43-1DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Sam Falk+2.1
54-1LOYCHIDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.4
65-1DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidsonaced Sam Falk+3.2
76-1DAVIDDAVID×3KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+3.1
86-2DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+1.9
97-2LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.4
107-3DAVIDLOYCHI×3Serve errDavidson+1.9
117-4LOYCHILOYCHI×3BlockedKinsey Smithblk Chloe Morgan+2.9
127-5LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+3.1
138-5LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+2.7
148-6DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+2.3
159-6LOYCHIDAVIDBlockedLeyna Nguyenblk Kinsey Smith, Mia Compas+2.7
169-7DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedMeile Songailablk Katie Scherer, Chloe Morgan+2.4
1710-7LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+2.8
1810-8DAVIDLOYCHIBad setBrooke Briscoe+2.4
1911-8LOYCHIDAVIDBad setSam Falk+2.9
2011-9DAVIDLOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+2.5
2112-9LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.0
2212-10DAVIDLOYCHI×8KillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+2.5
2312-11LOYCHILOYCHI×8KillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+3.7
2412-12LOYCHILOYCHI×8Attack errAriyana Johnson+3.9
2512-13LOYCHILOYCHI×8KillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+3.8
2612-14LOYCHILOYCHI×8KillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+3.5
2712-15LOYCHILOYCHI×8BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Kate Maley+3.1
2812-16LOYCHILOYCHI×8Attack errMeile Songaila+2.5
2912-17LOYCHILOYCHI×8AceLoyola Chicago+1.9
3013-17LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+1.1
3114-17DAVIDDAVIDBlockedClaire Van Den Herikblk Kinsey Smith+2.1
3214-18DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+1.9
3315-18LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.5
3416-18DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.9
3516-19DAVIDLOYCHIAttack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.6
3616-20LOYCHILOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.7
3717-20LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Adlee Grissett+1.4
3817-21DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Mya Ball+2.0
3917-22LOYCHILOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.6
4018-22LOYCHIDAVIDKillMyla Youngset Kinsey Smith+0.6
4118-23DAVIDLOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+1.0
4218-24LOYCHILOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+0.5
4319-24LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+0.1
4419-25DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+0.2
Set 3
10-1LOYCHILOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+2.7
21-1LOYCHIDAVID×4KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.1
32-1DAVIDDAVID×4AceDavidsonaced Claire Van Den Herik+3.0
43-1DAVIDDAVID×4Attack errLeyna Nguyen+3.2
54-1DAVIDDAVID×4AceDavidson+3.3
64-2DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+2.2
74-3LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+3.1
84-4LOYCHILOYCHI×3AceLoyola Chicago+3.1
95-4LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.5
105-5DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Emma Henry+2.3
116-5LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+2.5
126-6DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Mya Ball+2.4
137-6LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.6
147-7DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+2.5
158-7LOYCHIDAVID×3Serve errLoyola Chicago+2.7
169-7DAVID
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.8
1710-7DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.9
1810-8DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.5
1910-9LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+3.7
2010-10LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+3.7
2111-10LOYCHIDAVIDServe errLoyola Chicago+3.0
2212-10DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+4.2
2312-11DAVIDLOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+2.8
2412-12LOYCHILOYCHIAceLoyola Chicago+4.0
2513-12LOYCHIDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.3
2614-12DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+4.6
2715-12DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+4.6
2815-13DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKate Maleyset Elena Garcia-Guerrios+2.9
2915-14LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillKate Maleyset Sam Falk+4.3
3015-15LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+4.6
3116-15LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.8
3216-16DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+3.5
3316-17LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillChloe Morganset Mya Ball+4.8
3416-18LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+4.5
3517-18LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.1
3617-19DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+3.5
3717-20LOYCHILOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Sam Falk+3.9
3818-20LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errLeyna Nguyen+2.3
3918-21DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Chloe Morgan, Leyna Nguyen+3.0
4019-21LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errLeyna Nguyen+2.3
4119-22DAVIDLOYCHIAttack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+3.2
4219-23LOYCHILOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+2.7
4320-23LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.0
4420-24DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+1.7
4520-25LOYCHILOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+0.7
Set 4
11-0DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.4
21-1DAVIDLOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Emma Henry+1.7
31-2LOYCHILOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+2.3
42-2LOYCHIDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.8
52-3DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+1.7
63-3LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.8
73-4DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+1.7
84-4LOYCHIDAVIDBlockedClaire Van Den Herikblk Myla Young, Ariyana Johnson+1.9
95-4DAVIDDAVIDBlockedClaire Van Den Herikblk Ariyana Johnson, Myla Young+2.7
105-5DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Mya Ball+1.9
116-5LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
126-6DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Mya Ball+2.0
136-7LOYCHILOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.6
147-7LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.0
157-8DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Sam Falk+2.0
168-8LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
178-9DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+2.0
189-9LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errKate Maley+2.1
199-10DAVIDLOYCHIServe errPeyton Garrick+2.1
209-11LOYCHILOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+2.7
2110-11LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.0
2211-11DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.1
2311-12DAVIDLOYCHIServe errKinsey Smith+2.3
2412-12LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.4
2513-12DAVIDDAVIDAttack errLeyna Nguyen+3.6
2613-13DAVIDLOYCHI×4Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.5
2713-14LOYCHILOYCHI×4AceJae Fitting+3.4
2813-15LOYCHILOYCHI×4Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+3.1
2913-16LOYCHILOYCHI×4KillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+2.7
3014-16LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.8
3115-16DAVIDDAVIDAttack errChloe Morgan+3.1
3215-17DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+2.5
3316-17LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errKatie Scherer+2.4
3416-18DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.7
3517-18LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.6
3617-19DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+2.9
3717-20LOYCHILOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+3.2
3818-20LOYCHIDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
3919-20DAVIDDAVID×3KillMyla Youngset Kinsey Smith+3.7
4020-20DAVIDDAVID×3KillPeyton Garrickset Kate Whiteley+5.0
4120-21DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+4.1
4221-21LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+4.2
4321-22DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Sam Falk+4.6
4421-23LOYCHILOYCHIAceMya Ball+5.7
4522-23LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.1
4622-24DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+4.8
4722-25LOYCHILOYCHIBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Chloe Morgan, Katie Scherer+3.4

Score shown after each rally, Davidson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).