FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026

Davidson def. Loyola Chicago 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Loyola Chicago 73.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Davidson won at Loyola Chicago 3-0 (25-23, 25-19, 27-25) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Davidson's Elena Garcia-Guerrios led with 15 kills.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set123Sets
DAVID2525273
LOYCHI2319250

Match story · written from the play-by-play

RallyIQ gave Davidson 26%. Davidson won anyway.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Davidson's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Loyola Chicago went in at 74% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Davidson 6–5 Loyola Chicago

    Up 6–5, Davidson scored 5 straight to make it 11–5.

    Davidson 51% → 67%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Davidson 24–24 Loyola Chicago

    Davidson won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 27–25 and win the match 3–0.

    Davidson 77% → >99%

Loyola Chicago above 50Davidson belowMax swing 12.0%

DavidsonLoyola Chicago

Sideout %
Davidson 60.3·Loyola Chicago 52.6
Break %
Davidson 47.4·Loyola Chicago 39.7
Hitting
Davidson .244·Loyola Chicago .173
Longest run
Davidson 5·Loyola Chicago 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Loyola Chicago above 50 · Davidson below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+12.0% DAVIDrally 144 · set 3

Biggest swing: 12.0% to Davidson — set 3, DAVID 27-25 LOYCHI. Kill by Elena Garcia-Guerrios (set by Kate Whiteley). LOYCHI win probability 12% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAVID 27.2%72.8% LOYCHI

Davidson wins

3-0
5.0%
3-1
9.4%
3-2
12.8%

Loyola Chicago wins

3-0
25.3%
3-1
27.9%
3-2
19.6%
DAVID break %
39.9% vs this opp
LOYCHI break %
44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Elena Garcia-Guerrios (set by Kate Whiteley)

    Set 3 · DAVID 27-25 LOYCHI · DAVID 88% → 100%

  2. 02
    Leyna NguyenAttack error+10.7%

    Attack error by Leyna Nguyen

    Set 3 · DAVID 25-24 LOYCHI · DAVID 77% → 88%

  3. 03
    Myla YoungBlock+10.1%

    Chloe Morgan stuffed by Myla Young

    Set 1 · DAVID 25-23 LOYCHI · DAVID 37% → 47%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 3 · DAVID 24-24 LOYCHI · DAVID 68% → 77%

  5. 05
    Mallory BohlKill+8.1%

    Kill by Mallory Bohl (set by Mya Ball)

    Set 3 · DAVID 25-25 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 12% → 20%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 3 · DAVID 26-25 LOYCHI · DAVID 80% → 88%

  7. 07
    Mia CompasKill+6.8%

    Kill by Mia Compas (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 1 · DAVID 24-23 LOYCHI · DAVID 30% → 37%

  8. 08
    Leyna NguyenKill+6.8%

    Kill by Leyna Nguyen (set by Emma Henry)

    Set 1 · DAVID 23-23 LOYCHI · LOYCHI 63% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
315637.243000141031.516.5
313635.20000140010.513.5
311428.25001011010113
34212.16700000111.55.5
3305.60000000132.55.5
3001.0003901600000
3000–3111010001
3000–010000001
21011.000000000001
2000–000110000
2000–200000000
1000–010000001
Team totals4718119.244444346338777
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
315234.38222092010.517.5
35418.05600040031.56.5
3239-.11100020052.54.5
3000–1600700000
3000–001200000
2106.167000001223
37726.00000020132.59.5
38325.200000200219
3002.0006131110001
3002.00017001100000
1415.600000100215
Team totals4220127.17341345142181167

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Davidson vs Loyola Chicago

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DAVID · LOYCHI 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 DAVIDLOYCHI 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 5 DAVIDLOYCHI 3

Set 3

27-25

Longest run 4 DAVIDLOYCHI 3

Bars above the line = Loyola Chicago leads, below = Davidson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%8/18
36%4/11
2
47%8/17
38%5/13
3
88%7/8
50%7/14
4
67%6/9
60%9/15
5
86%6/7
40%4/10
6
67%6/9
54%7/13
All
60%41/68
47%36/76

Loyola Chicago

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
0%0/6
2
53%8/15
60%12/20
3
41%7/17
50%8/16
4
60%6/10
13%1/8
5
43%6/14
33%3/9
6
50%5/10
33%3/9
All
53%40/76
40%27/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

144 rallies

#DAVID-LOYCHISrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0DAVIDDAVIDAttack errKate Maley+2.1
21-1DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+1.5
31-2LOYCHILOYCHIAceLeyna Nguyenaced Elena Garcia-Guerrios+2.0
42-2LOYCHIDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.5
53-2DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.2
64-2DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.3
74-3DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+1.6
84-4LOYCHILOYCHIBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Kate Maley, Chloe Morgan+2.2
95-4LOYCHIDAVIDServe errSam Falk+1.8
106-4DAVIDDAVIDAttack errClaire Van Den Herik+2.5
116-5DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Chloe Morgan, Claire Van Den Herik+1.7
127-5LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.9
138-5DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.6
148-6DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+1.7
159-6LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.0
1610-6DAVIDDAVIDKillMyla Young+2.6
1710-7DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.6
1811-7LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errKatie Scherer+2.0
1911-8DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.6
2012-8LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.0
2112-9DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+1.7
2212-10LOYCHILOYCHIBlockedMeile Songailablk Kate Maley, Avary DeBlieck+2.5
2313-10LOYCHIDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.3
2413-11DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+1.9
2514-11LOYCHIDAVIDServe errSam Falk+2.3
2614-12DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+2.0
2715-12LOYCHIDAVIDBlockedClaire Van Den Herikblk Ariyana Johnson, Myla Young+2.4
2815-13DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Katie Scherer, Chloe Morgan+2.0
2916-13LOYCHIDAVID×3Attack errKatie Scherer+2.5
3017-13DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errKatie Scherer+3.1
3118-13DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errChloe Morgan+2.6
3218-14DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+1.3
3319-14LOYCHIDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.9
3420-14DAVIDDAVID×3AceBrooke Briscoeaced Leyna Nguyen+1.8
3521-14DAVIDDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.1
3621-15DAVIDLOYCHIServe errBrooke Briscoe+0.4
3722-15LOYCHIDAVIDKillNgodoo Harrisset Kate Whiteley+0.7
3822-16DAVIDLOYCHI×5KillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+0.3
3922-17LOYCHILOYCHI×5BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Avary DeBlieck+0.6
4022-18LOYCHILOYCHI×5Attack errAriyana Johnson+1.1
4122-19LOYCHILOYCHI×5KillClaire Van Den Herikset Leyna Nguyen+1.8
4222-20LOYCHILOYCHI×5KillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+2.9
4323-20LOYCHIDAVIDAttack errKate Maley+3.5
4423-21DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillClaire Van Den Herikset Leyna Nguyen+1.9
4523-22LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errMia Compas+4.4
4623-23LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+6.8
4724-23LOYCHIDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+6.8
4825-23DAVIDDAVIDBlockedChloe Morganblk Myla Young+10.1
Set 2
11-0LOYCHIDAVIDKillMyla Youngset Kinsey Smith+2.2
21-1DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Mya Ball+2.0
31-2LOYCHILOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+2.7
42-2LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+2.1
52-3DAVIDLOYCHIAttack errMeile Songaila+2.0
63-3LOYCHIDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.1
74-3DAVIDDAVID×3KillMeile Songaila+3.1
85-3DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedKatie Schererblk Meile Songaila+3.3
95-4DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.2
106-4LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.5
116-5DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+2.3
127-5LOYCHIDAVID×5KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.6
138-5DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errClaire Van Den Herik+3.5
149-5DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedKate Maleyblk Elena Garcia-Guerrios, Myla Young+3.4
1510-5DAVIDDAVID×5Bad setEmma Henry+3.2
1611-5DAVIDDAVID×5AcePeyton Garrick+2.9
1711-6DAVIDLOYCHI×3BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Kate Maley, Avary DeBlieck+1.6
1811-7LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillKate Maley+2.6
1911-8LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errMeile Songaila+3.0
2012-8LOYCHIDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.8
2113-8DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.3
2214-8DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errKate Maley+2.9
2314-9DAVIDLOYCHIKillChloe Morganset Emma Henry+1.6
2415-9LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+2.2
2515-10DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+1.5
2615-11LOYCHILOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Sam Falk+2.6
2716-11LOYCHIDAVID×3Serve errJae Fitting+2.6
2817-11DAVIDDAVID×3Bad setSam Falk+2.8
2918-11DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errLeyna Nguyen+2.0
3018-12DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+0.9
3118-13LOYCHILOYCHIKillAvary DeBlieckset Mya Ball+1.7
3219-13LOYCHIDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.0
3320-13DAVIDDAVID×4Attack errKatie Scherer+1.7
3421-13DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.0
3522-13DAVIDDAVID×4KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+0.5
3622-14DAVIDLOYCHIServe errKinsey Smith+0.1
3722-15LOYCHILOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Sam Falk+0.3
3823-15LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.4
3923-16DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+0.1
4023-17LOYCHILOYCHIAceLeyna Nguyenaced Adlee Grissett+0.3
4124-17LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.5
4224-18DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Sam Falk+0.1
4324-19LOYCHILOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+0.2
4425-19LOYCHIDAVIDServe errSam Falk+0.4
Set 3
10-1DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+1.7
20-2LOYCHILOYCHI×3BlockedMeile Songailablk Katie Scherer, Chloe Morgan+2.2
30-3LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errMia Compas+2.0
41-3LOYCHIDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.4
52-3DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedKatie Schererblk Mia Compas, Elena Garcia-Guerrios+2.2
63-3DAVIDDAVID×3AceMeile Songailaaced Sam Falk+2.5
73-4DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Katie Scherer+1.8
84-4LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
94-5DAVIDLOYCHIKillMallory Bohlset Mya Ball+1.9
105-5LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.0
116-5DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.8
126-6DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Emma Henry+2.0
136-7LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.7
146-8LOYCHILOYCHI×3Attack errAriyana Johnson+2.5
157-8LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.9
168-8DAVIDDAVIDKillMyla Youngset Kinsey Smith+2.8
178-9DAVIDLOYCHIBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Mallory Bohl, Claire Van Den Herik+2.1
189-9LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.2
199-10DAVIDLOYCHIKillClaire Van Den Herikset Emma Henry+2.2
2010-10LOYCHIDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.3
2111-10DAVIDDAVIDAttack errKatie Scherer+3.3
2211-11DAVIDLOYCHIKillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.4
2312-11LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.6
2412-12DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKatie Schererset Mya Ball+2.5
2512-13LOYCHILOYCHI×3BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Mallory Bohl, Katie Scherer+3.3
2612-14LOYCHILOYCHI×3AceSam Falkaced Brooke Briscoe+3.1
2713-14LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.3
2813-15DAVIDLOYCHIKillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+2.4
2914-15LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.3
3015-15DAVIDDAVIDBlockedMallory Bohlblk Elena Garcia-Guerrios, Myla Young+3.7
3115-16DAVIDLOYCHIServe errAriyana Johnson+2.8
3216-16LOYCHIDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.9
3316-17DAVIDLOYCHIKillMallory Bohlset Emma Henry+3.0
3417-17LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+3.1
3518-17DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songaila+4.8
3618-18DAVIDLOYCHIKillKate Maleyset Emma Henry+3.4
3719-18LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+3.9
3819-19DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillKatie Schererset Sam Falk+3.6
3919-20LOYCHILOYCHI×3Bad setKinsey Smith+5.1
4019-21LOYCHILOYCHI×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Chloe Morgan, Leyna Nguyen+4.7
4120-21LOYCHIDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+3.0
4221-21DAVIDDAVIDBlockedChloe Morganblk Mia Compas+5.7
4321-22DAVIDLOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+4.8
4421-23LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillLeyna Nguyenset Mya Ball+5.9
4521-24LOYCHILOYCHI×3KillMallory Bohlset Mya Ball+3.9
4622-24LOYCHIDAVID×4KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.2
4723-24DAVIDDAVID×4AceEllie Ocampoaced Leyna Nguyen+3.8
4824-24DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+9.5
4925-24DAVIDDAVID×4Attack errLeyna Nguyen+10.7
5025-25DAVIDLOYCHIKillMallory Bohlset Mya Ball+8.1
5126-25LOYCHIDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+8.1
5227-25DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kate Whiteley+12.0

Score shown after each rally, Davidson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).