FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeATLANTIC-10

Duquesne def. Mercyhurst 3–0

(25-21, 25-20, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERCYH	21	20	11	0
DUQSNE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DUQSNE above 50 · MERCYH below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Mercyhurst — set 1, MERCYH 12-9 DUQSNE. Attack error by Simone Searles. DUQSNE win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERCYH 1.0%99.0% DUQSNE

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

Duquesne wins

3-0

73.7%

3-1

21.4%

3-2

3.9%

MERCYH break %: 36.1% vs this opp
DUQSNE break %: 54.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Simone SearlesAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Simone Searles
Set 1 · MERCYH 12-9 DUQSNE · MERCYH 2% → 3%
02
Julia ShepherdKill+0.5%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Sydney Forcht)
Set 1 · MERCYH 14-11 DUQSNE · MERCYH 2% → 3%
03
Mia MattinglyKill+0.4%
Kill by Mia Mattingly (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 1 · MERCYH 13-10 DUQSNE · MERCYH 2% → 3%
04
Chloe WilmotKill+0.4%
Kill by Chloe Wilmot (set by Londyn Stone)
Set 1 · MERCYH 14-13 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 98% → 98%
05
Trinity TatupuKill+0.4%
Kill by Trinity Tatupu (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 1 · MERCYH 7-3 DUQSNE · MERCYH 2% → 2%
06
DUQSNE serverService error+0.4%
Duquesne service error
Set 1 · MERCYH 15-14 DUQSNE · MERCYH 2% → 2%
07
Londyn StoneKill+0.4%
Kill by Londyn Stone (set by Chloe Wilmot)
Set 1 · MERCYH 14-14 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 98% → 98%
08
Londyn StoneKill+0.4%
Kill by Londyn Stone (set by Chloe Wilmot)
Set 1 · MERCYH 15-16 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 98% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Mercyhurstaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	10	6	28	.143	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	4	3	12	.083	0	2	2	3	0	2	1	7
23Ava CarneyMB	3	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
12Trinity TatupuOH	3	4	3	16	.063	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	4
7Kalyani OliveOH	3	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Aliyah AngeliciS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	7	4	23	.130	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	2	5	3	0	0	1
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	2	8	0	0	0	0
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0
16Sarah BarnumMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27Sarina NotaroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team totals		29	18	94	.117	25	4	9	36	8	6	3	52

Duquesnehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Londyn StoneOH	3	12	3	25	.360	1	0	1	9	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
9Simone SearlesOH	3	10	3	20	.350	1	0	1	9	0	0	2	1	11
11Emersen SchromOH	3	8	3	26	.192	1	2	2	5	3	0	1	0.5	10.5
2Chloe WilmotS	3	3	1	6	.333	30	3	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
14Jordan RobertsonMB	3	4	1	10	.300	1	1	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Madeleine BushMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	5
16Alexa FlowersDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Delaney McIntoshL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	15	0	0	0	0	1
6Charlotte ArringtonOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Kaylie BaumgartMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Mirabella IriarteMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Ryan HicksS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	12	95	.284	35	8	7	46	4	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MERCYH · DUQSNE 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHDUQSNE 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHDUQSNE 4

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHDUQSNE 6

Bars above the line = Duquesne leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	13%1/8
2	50%6/12	30%3/10
3	38%5/13	54%7/13
4	38%5/13	38%3/8
5	50%5/10	38%3/8
6	38%5/13	29%2/7
All	45%33/73	35%19/54

Duquesne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	62%8/13
2	58%7/12	36%4/11
3	50%6/12	57%8/14
4	71%5/7	64%9/14
5	63%5/8	50%5/10
6	83%5/6	55%6/11
All	65%35/54	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	MERCYH-DUQSNE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
2	1-1	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
3	2-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
4	2-2	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
5	3-2	DUQSNE	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
6	4-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
7	5-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Jordan Robertson	blk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd	+0.3
8	5-3	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.2
9	6-3	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
10	7-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
11	7-4	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
12	8-4	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
13	8-5	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Chloe Wilmot	set Jordan Robertson	+0.3
14	8-6	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Madeleine Bush	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.3
15	9-6	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
16	9-7	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Attack err	Kalyani Olive	blk Madeleine Bush	+0.3
17	9-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.3
18	10-8	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Attack err	Londyn Stone	blk Kalyani Olive, Ava Carney	+0.3
19	10-9	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.3
20	11-9	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.3
21	12-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Simone Searles		+0.5
22	12-10	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
23	13-10	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.4
24	13-11	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
25	14-11	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Sydney Forcht	+0.5
26	14-12	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
27	14-13	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Chloe Wilmot	set Londyn Stone	+0.4
28	14-14	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.4
29	15-14	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.4
30	15-15	MERCYH	DUQSNE×4	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
31	15-16	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.4
32	15-17	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu	blk Chloe Wilmot, Madeleine Bush	+0.3
33	15-18	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd	blk Madeleine Bush, Londyn Stone	+0.2
34	16-18	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
35	16-19	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
36	16-20	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
37	17-20	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
38	17-21	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
39	18-21	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Attack err	Londyn Stone		+0.1
40	18-22	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
41	18-23	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Simone Searles	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
42	18-24	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Bad set	Aliyah Angelici		+0.0
43	19-24	DUQSNE	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
44	20-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Simone Searles		+0.0
45	21-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Emersen Schrom		+0.1
46	21-25	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
2	1-1	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
3	2-1	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
4	3-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Simone Searles		+0.1
5	3-2	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.1
6	3-3	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
7	3-4	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
8	4-4	DUQSNE	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
9	5-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly		+0.1
10	6-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Emersen Schrom	+0.2
11	6-5	MERCYH	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
12	6-6	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd	blk Jordan Robertson, Emersen Schrom	+0.1
13	6-7	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.1
14	6-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.1
15	7-8	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
16	8-8	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Londyn Stone	+0.1
17	8-9	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
18	9-9	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
19	10-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Ava Carney	+0.2
20	10-10	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
21	10-11	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Anna Logan	+0.1
22	11-11	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
23	11-12	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
24	11-13	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.1
25	12-13	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
26	13-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Londyn Stone		+0.2
27	13-14	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
28	13-15	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra	blk Simone Searles, Madeleine Bush	+0.1
29	14-15	DUQSNE	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Trinity Tatupu	+0.1
30	15-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
31	16-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Emersen Schrom	blk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd	+0.3
32	16-16	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Madeleine Bush	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
33	16-17	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.2
34	17-17	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
35	17-18	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
36	17-19	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
37	18-19	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
38	18-20	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Delaney McIntosh	+0.2
39	18-21	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Simone Searles	+0.2
40	19-21	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
41	19-22	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
42	19-23	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu		+0.1
43	20-23	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Attack err	Chloe Wilmot		+0.0
44	20-24	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
45	20-25	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
2	0-2	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.0
3	0-3	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
4	1-3	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
5	1-4	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra	blk Madeleine Bush, Simone Searles	+0.0
6	1-5	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson		+0.0
7	2-5	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
8	2-6	MERCYH	DUQSNE×6	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.0
9	2-7	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×6	Kill	Jordan Robertson		+0.0
10	2-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×6	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
11	2-9	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×6	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.0
12	2-10	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×6	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
13	2-11	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×6	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
14	3-11	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
15	3-12	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
16	3-13	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Anna Logan	+0.0
17	3-14	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Anna Logan	+0.0
18	4-14	DUQSNE	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Emersen Schrom		+0.0
19	5-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Emersen Schrom	+0.0
20	6-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Trinity Tatupu	+0.0
21	6-15	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Kill	Chloe Wilmot	set Emersen Schrom	+0.0
22	7-15	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
23	8-15	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Madeleine Bush		+0.0
24	8-16	MERCYH	DUQSNE×5	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
25	8-17	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
26	8-18	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
27	8-19	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu		+0.0
28	8-20	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.0
29	9-20	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
30	10-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Emersen Schrom	+0.0
31	10-21	MERCYH	DUQSNE	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
32	10-22	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Ava Carney		+0.0
33	11-22	DUQSNE	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
34	11-23	MERCYH	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.0
35	11-24	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.0
36	11-25	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Sarina Notaro	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.