Morehead State def. Mercyhurst 3-0 Volleyball (Sep 4)

FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

3:0

Morehead St. won at Mercyhurst 3-0 (25-13, 25-10, 25-20) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. Morehead St.'s Hollan Everett led with 13 kills, and Courtney Fitzgerald added 8 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Sep 4

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MOREST	25	25	25	3
MERCYH	13	10	20	0

Win probability

Mercyhurst above 50 · Morehead St. below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Morehead St. — set 1, MOREST 2-0 MERCYH. Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa). MERCYH win probability 12% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MOREST 86.7%13.3% MERCYH

Morehead St. wins

3-0

39.3%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

15.8%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

1.9%

3-1

4.2%

3-2

7.2%

MOREST break %: 48.9% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 40.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Amelia NottKill+1.1%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 2-0 MERCYH · MOREST 88% → 89%
02
MercyhurstAce+1.0%
Mercyhurst ace on Courtney Fitzgerald
Set 1 · MOREST 4-2 MERCYH · MERCYH 10% → 11%
03
Hollan EverettKill+1.0%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 3-0 MERCYH · MOREST 89% → 90%
04
Amelia NottKill+0.9%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 1-0 MERCYH · MOREST 87% → 88%
05
Hollan EverettKill+0.9%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Courtney Fitzgerald)
Set 1 · MOREST 7-3 MERCYH · MOREST 90% → 91%
06
Ella WarrickAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Ella Warrick
Set 1 · MOREST 9-6 MERCYH · MERCYH 9% → 10%
07
Hollan EverettKill+0.9%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Sydney Forcht)
Set 2 · MOREST 2-1 MERCYH · MOREST 93% → 94%
08
Anna LoganAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Anna Logan
Set 2 · MOREST 6-4 MERCYH · MOREST 94% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Morehead St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Hollan EverettMB	3	13	2	21	.524	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	14
5Ella WarrickOH	3	8	5	27	.111	1	4	0	7	0	0	0	0	12
9Amelia NottMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	0	0	6	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	4
15Anna SchiltzMB	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	2
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	14	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
7Kylie SharpMB	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	0	4	1	0	0	0	3
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	1	8	1	0	0	0	2
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
11Jasmine DanielsS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Mary RindlerOH	1	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Kennedy TinchDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Reagan BaxterMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	94	.245	36	11	1	45	2	2	10	7	75

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	6	4	18	.111	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	7
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	4	2	14	.143	1	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	4	3	21	.048	0	0	0	4	1	2	1	5
23Ava CarneyMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	13	1	3	8	0	0	0	1
12Trinity TatupuOH	2	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	1
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0
9Payton MelinOPP	2	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
7Kalyani OliveOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Mya ComerS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
16Sarah BarnumMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27Sarina NotaroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
Team totals		25	18	94	.074	22	2	5	34	11	8	4	43

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MOREST · MERCYH 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 7 MORESTMERCYH 2

Set 2

25-10

Longest run 8 MORESTMERCYH 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 MORESTMERCYH 3

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%2/2	67%2/3
2	67%2/3	60%3/5
3	100%2/2	0%0/2
4	100%2/2	33%1/3
5	50%2/4	50%2/4
6	100%1/1	86%6/7
All	79%11/14	58%14/24

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%2/5	0%0/2
2	100%2/2	33%1/3
3	67%2/3	0%0/2
4	50%2/4	0%0/2
5	14%1/7	50%2/4
6	33%1/3	0%0/1
All	42%10/24	21%3/14

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

118 rallies

#	MOREST-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.9
2	2-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+1.1
3	3-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.0
4	4-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.8
5	4-1	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
6	4-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.0
7	5-2	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Kelsie Gaiter-Davis		+0.8
8	5-3	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.8
9	6-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.8
10	7-3	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.9
11	7-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
12	8-4	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
13	9-4	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Anna Logan	+0.7
14	9-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.6
15	9-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.9
16	10-6	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.8
17	10-7	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
18	11-7	MERCYH	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.8
19	12-7	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu		+0.8
20	13-7	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Trinity Tatupu	blk Anna Schiltz	+0.6
21	13-8	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.4
22	14-8	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.5
23	14-9	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.4
24	15-9	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.5
25	15-10	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.4
26	16-10	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.5
27	16-11	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
28	17-11	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.5
29	18-11	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.4
30	18-12	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
31	18-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.4
32	19-13	MERCYH	MOREST×7	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.4
33	20-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
34	21-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
35	22-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Bad set	Julia Shepherd		+0.1
36	23-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Sydney Forcht	·
37	24-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Jasmine Daniels	·
38	25-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Jasmine Daniels	·
Set 2
1	0-1	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.8
2	1-1	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.7
3	2-1	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Forcht	+0.9
4	2-2	MOREST	MERCYH	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Mia Mattingly, Roslyn Guerra	+0.7
5	3-2	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.7
6	3-3	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.8
7	4-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.7
8	4-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.8
9	5-4	MERCYH	MOREST×6	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.9
11	7-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Blocked	Trinity Tatupu	blk Kylie Sharp	+0.8
12	8-4		MOREST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.6
13	9-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.5
14	10-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
15	10-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.3
16	11-5	MERCYH	MOREST×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.3
17	12-5	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.3
18	13-5	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Morehead St.		+0.2
19	13-6	MOREST	MERCYH	Blocked	Anna Schiltz	blk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney	+0.1
20	14-6	MERCYH	MOREST×8	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.2
21	15-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.1
22	16-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Ella Warrick	+0.1
23	17-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Bad set	Aliyah Angelici		·
24	18-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Kill	Anna Schiltz	set Josie Certa	·
25	19-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Blocked	Payton Melin	blk Hollan Everett, Amelia Nott	·
26	20-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Sarina Notaro	·
27	21-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Blocked	Roslyn Guerra	blk Amelia Nott, Anna Schiltz	·
28	21-7	MOREST	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	·
29	21-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Mary Rindler		·
30	21-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Mary Rindler		·
31	21-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Mary Rindler	blk Mia Mattingly	·
32	22-10	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Serve err	Mercyhurst		·
33	23-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Bad set	Kelsie Gaiter-Davis		·
34	24-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Mary Rindler		·
35	25-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		·
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.5
2	1-1	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.4
3	2-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.4
4	3-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.4
5	4-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.3
6	4-2	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
7	4-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
8	5-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.3
9	6-3	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.4
10	6-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+0.3
11	7-4	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.3
12	7-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
13	7-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.4
14	8-6	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+0.4
15	8-7	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.4
16	9-7	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
17	9-8	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.4
18	10-8	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
19	10-9	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.4
20	11-9	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.4
21	12-9	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.4
22	12-10	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Anna Schiltz		+0.3
23	13-10	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.4
24	14-10	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
25	14-11	MOREST	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd	+0.3
26	14-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney		+0.4
27–28	15-13		MOREST · MERCYH	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
29	16-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.5
30	17-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.4
31	17-14	MOREST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.3
32	17-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.5
33	17-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra		+0.7
34	18-16	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
35	19-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Blocked	Ava Carney	blk Amelia Nott	+0.6
36	20-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.4
37	21-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
38	21-17	MOREST	MERCYH	Serve err	Courtney Fitzgerald		+0.1
39	22-17	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
40	23-17	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.1
41	23-18	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	·
42	23-19	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.1
43	24-19	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.1
44	24-20	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	·
45	25-20	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Jasmine Daniels	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Morehead St. def. Mercyhurst 3–0