FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayOVC

3:0

HomeNEC

Morehead St. def. Mercyhurst 3–0

(25-13, 25-10, 25-20)

Set	1	2*	3*	Sets
MOREST	25	25	25	3
MERCYH	13	10	20	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERCYH above 50 · MOREST below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Morehead St. — set 1, MOREST 2-0 MERCYH. Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa). MERCYH win probability 6% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MOREST 93.1%6.9% MERCYH

Morehead St. wins

3-0

50.5%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

11.7%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.1%

MOREST break %: 50.8% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Amelia NottKill+0.6%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 2-0 MERCYH · MOREST 94% → 94%
02
MERCYH serverAce+0.6%
Mercyhurst ace on Courtney Fitzgerald
Set 1 · MOREST 4-2 MERCYH · MERCYH 5% → 6%
03
Amelia NottKill+0.6%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 1-0 MERCYH · MOREST 93% → 94%
04
Hollan EverettKill+0.5%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · MOREST 3-0 MERCYH · MOREST 94% → 95%
05
Ella WarrickAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Ella Warrick
Set 1 · MOREST 9-6 MERCYH · MERCYH 5% → 5%
06
Julia ShepherdKill+0.5%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 1 · MOREST 5-3 MERCYH · MERCYH 5% → 6%
07
Hollan EverettKill+0.5%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Courtney Fitzgerald)
Set 1 · MOREST 7-3 MERCYH · MOREST 95% → 95%
08
Hollan EverettKill+0.5%
Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Sydney Forcht)
Set 2 · MOREST 2-1 MERCYH · MOREST 96% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Morehead St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Hollan EverettMB	3	13	2	21	.524	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	14
5Ella WarrickOH	3	8	5	27	.111	1	4	0	7	0	0	0	0	12
9Amelia NottMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	0	0	6	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	4
15Anna SchiltzMB	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	2
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	14	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
7Kylie SharpMB	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	0	4	1	0	0	0	3
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	1	8	1	0	0	0	2
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
11Jasmine DanielsS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Mary RindlerOH	1	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Kennedy TinchDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Reagan BaxterMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	94	.245	36	11	1	45	2	2	10	7	75

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	6	4	18	.111	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	7
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	4	2	14	.143	1	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	4	3	21	.048	0	0	0	4	1	2	1	5
23Ava CarneyMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	13	1	3	8	0	0	0	1
12Trinity TatupuOH	2	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	1
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0
9Payton MelinOPP	2	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
7Kalyani OliveOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Mya ComerS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
16Sarah BarnumMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27Sarina NotaroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
Team totals		25	18	94	.074	22	2	5	34	11	8	4	43

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 MOREST · MERCYH 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 7 MORESTMERCYH 2

Set 2*

25-10

Longest run 8 MORESTMERCYH 4

Set 3*

25-20

Longest run 4 MORESTMERCYH 3

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%2/2	67%2/3
2	67%2/3	60%3/5
3	100%2/2	0%0/2
4	100%2/2	33%1/3
5	50%2/4	50%2/4
6	100%1/1	86%6/7
All	79%11/14	58%14/24

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%2/5	0%0/2
2	100%2/2	33%1/3
3	67%2/3	0%0/2
4	50%2/4	0%0/2
5	14%1/7	50%2/4
6	33%1/3	0%0/1
All	42%10/24	21%3/14

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

118 rallies

Rally log

#	MOREST-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.6
2	2-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.6
3	3-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.5
4	4-0	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.4
5	4-1	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
6	4-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.6
7	5-2	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Kelsie Gaiter-Davis		+0.5
8	5-3	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
9	6-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.5
10	7-3	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.5
11	7-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
12	8-4	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
13	9-4	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Anna Logan	+0.4
14	9-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.3
15	9-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.5
16	10-6	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
17	10-7	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
18	11-7	MERCYH	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
19	12-7	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu		+0.4
20	13-7	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu	blk Anna Schiltz	+0.3
21	13-8	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
22	14-8	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
23	14-9	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
24	15-9	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.3
25	15-10	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
26	16-10	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
27	16-11	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
28	17-11	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
29	18-11	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.2
30	18-12	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
31	18-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.2
32	19-13	MERCYH	MOREST×7	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.2
33	20-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
34	21-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
35	22-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Bad set	Julia Shepherd		+0.0
36	23-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Ace	MOREST server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.0
37	24-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Jasmine Daniels	+0.0
38	25-13	MOREST	MOREST×7	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Jasmine Daniels	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
2	1-1	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.4
3	2-1	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Forcht	+0.5
4	2-2	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Mia Mattingly, Roslyn Guerra	+0.4
5	3-2	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.4
6	3-3	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
7	4-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.4
8	4-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
9	5-4	MERCYH	MOREST×6	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.4
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.5
11	7-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Attack err	Trinity Tatupu	blk Kylie Sharp	+0.4
12	8-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
13	9-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.3
14	10-4	MOREST	MOREST×6	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
15	10-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
16	11-5	MERCYH	MOREST×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.2
17	12-5	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.1
18	13-5	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Team	+0.1
19	13-6	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Anna Schiltz	blk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney	+0.1
20	14-6	MERCYH	MOREST×8	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.1
21	15-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Ace	MOREST server	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.1
22	16-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Ella Warrick	+0.0
23	17-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Bad set	Aliyah Angelici		+0.0
24	18-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Kill	Anna Schiltz	set Josie Certa	+0.0
25	19-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Attack err	Payton Melin	blk Hollan Everett, Amelia Nott	+0.0
26	20-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Ace	MOREST server	aced Sarina Notaro	+0.0
27	21-6	MOREST	MOREST×8	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra	blk Amelia Nott, Anna Schiltz	+0.0
28	21-7	MOREST	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
29	21-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Mary Rindler		+0.0
30	21-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Mary Rindler		+0.0
31	21-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Mary Rindler	blk Mia Mattingly	+0.0
32	22-10	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
33	23-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Bad set	Kelsie Gaiter-Davis		+0.0
34	24-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Mary Rindler		+0.0
35	25-10	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.3
2	1-1	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.2
3	2-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	MOREST server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.2
4	3-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.2
5	4-1	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	MOREST server	aced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.2
6	4-2	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
7	4-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
8	5-3	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.2
9	6-3	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.2
10	6-4	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+0.2
11	7-4	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.2
12	7-5	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
13	7-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.2
14	8-6	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+0.2
15	8-7	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.2
16	9-7	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
17	9-8	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.2
18	10-8	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
19	10-9	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.2
20	11-9	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.2
21	12-9	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.2
22	12-10	MOREST	MERCYH	Attack err	Anna Schiltz		+0.2
23	13-10	MERCYH	MOREST	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.2
24	14-10	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
25	14-11	MOREST	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd	+0.1
26	14-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney		+0.2
27	14-13	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
28	15-13	MERCYH	MOREST×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
29	16-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
30	17-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.2
31	17-14	MOREST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.2
32	17-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
33	17-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra		+0.4
34	18-16	MERCYH	MOREST×4	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
35	19-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Attack err	Ava Carney	blk Amelia Nott	+0.3
36	20-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.2
37	21-16	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
38	21-17	MOREST	MERCYH	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.1
39	22-17	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
40	23-17	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.1
41	23-18	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.0
42	23-19	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.1
43	24-19	MERCYH	MOREST	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
44	24-20	MOREST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
45	25-20	MERCYH	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Jasmine Daniels	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.