FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeNEC

Mercyhurst def. Niagara 3–0

(25-16, 25-23, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NIAGRA	16	23	18	0
MERCYH	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERCYH above 50 · NIAGRA below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Mercyhurst — set 2, NIAGRA 23-25 MERCYH. Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Kelsie Gaiter-Davis). MERCYH win probability 95% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NIAGRA 12.8%87.2% MERCYH

Niagara wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

4.0%

3-2

7.0%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

40.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.6%

NIAGRA break %: 39.7% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 48.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Julia ShepherdKill+3.3%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Kelsie Gaiter-Davis)
Set 2 · NIAGRA 23-25 MERCYH · MERCYH 95% → 98%
02
Julia ShepherdKill+3.1%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · NIAGRA 22-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 91% → 94%
03
Ava CarneyKill+3.1%
Kill by Ava Carney (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · NIAGRA 23-24 MERCYH · MERCYH 91% → 95%
04
NIAGRA serverAce+2.9%
Niagara ace on Team
Set 2 · NIAGRA 22-20 MERCYH · NIAGRA 11% → 14%
05
Karlotta KattaiAttack error+2.9%
Karlotta Kattai stuffed by Julia Shepherd & Ava Carney
Set 2 · NIAGRA 22-22 MERCYH · MERCYH 88% → 91%
06
MERCYH serverService error+2.5%
Mercyhurst service error
Set 2 · NIAGRA 23-23 MERCYH · NIAGRA 6% → 9%
07
MERCYH serverAce+2.2%
Mercyhurst ace on Katelynn Rottman
Set 2 · NIAGRA 20-20 MERCYH · MERCYH 89% → 91%
08
Payton LeeKill+2.1%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 2 · NIAGRA 21-20 MERCYH · NIAGRA 9% → 11%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Niagaraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Payton LeeOH	3	11	4	20	.350	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
12Karlotta KattaiOH	3	4	7	20	-.150	0	4	1	7	0	0	0	0	8
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	3	2	0	10	.200	17	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
6Sole RancyMB	3	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
18Katelynn RottmanOH	2	2	2	7	.000	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	3
10Jakayla BrownMB	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
1Natasa LjubicicMB	3	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	1	3	0	1	2	2	4
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	3	0	7	2	0	0	0	3
14Noel PerkinsOH	3	1	0	8	.125	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Chloe MorelandOH	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	2
13Kaitlyn DoyleOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
15Leah AllenOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Leah WhiteS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	18	93	.118	26	9	4	28	9	1	4	3	57

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	10	2	20	.400	0	0	0	5	0	1	4	3	13
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	10	0	18	.556	0	0	2	0	0	1	3	2.5	12.5
23Ava CarneyMB	3	7	1	14	.429	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	10	.000	19	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	4
26Anna LoganDS	3	1	0	2	.500	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	2
8Madison MinerOH	3	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
7Kalyani OliveOH	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Payton MelinOPP	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	2	2	5	.000	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	0	6	.000	3	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	3	.000	7	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Mya ComerS	1	1	0	2	.500	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
12Trinity TatupuOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
16Sarah BarnumMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Camryn KetronDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Erin RobbinsMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	10	101	.277	34	9	5	27	9	2	16	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 NIAGRA · MERCYH 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 5 NIAGRAMERCYH 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 6 NIAGRAMERCYH 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRAMERCYH 6

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Niagara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	33%3/9
2	54%7/13	30%3/10
3	50%6/12	42%5/12
4	33%5/15	50%6/12
5	36%4/11	58%7/12
6	80%4/5	0%0/4
All	45%33/73	41%24/59

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	44%4/9
2	70%7/10	65%13/20
3	60%6/10	14%1/7
4	35%6/17	45%5/11
5	71%5/7	69%11/16
6	67%4/6	60%6/10
All	59%35/59	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	NIAGRA-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.9
2	0-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Team	+1.1
3	0-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.9
4	1-3	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.7
5	1-4	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
6	2-4	MERCYH	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Madison Miner		+0.8
7	3-4	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Team	+1.1
8	4-4	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Sydney Forcht	+1.4
9	4-5	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.0
10	5-5	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.1
11	5-6	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+1.1
12	5-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Bad set	Karlotta Kattai		+1.2
13	5-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.1
14	6-8	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.8
15	6-9	NIAGRA	MERCYH×4	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.9
16	6-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.9
17	6-11	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Payton Melin, Mia Mattingly	+0.7
18	6-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.6
19	7-12	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+0.4
20	7-13	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.4
21	7-14	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+0.4
22	8-14	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.2
23	8-15	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.3
24	8-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.3
25	8-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Bad set	Ashley Moreland		+0.2
26	9-17	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
27	9-18	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.1
28	10-18	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Bad set	Julia Shepherd		+0.1
29	11-18	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.1
30	11-19	NIAGRA	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
31	11-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
32	11-21	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
33	11-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Kalyani Olive, Mia Mattingly	+0.0
34	12-22	MERCYH	NIAGRA×5	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
35	13-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Attack err	Kalyani Olive	blk Kadence Goolsby, Natasa Ljubicic	+0.0
36	14-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.0
37	15-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Attack err	Kalyani Olive	blk Natasa Ljubicic, Kadence Goolsby	+0.0
38	16-22	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×5	Bad set	Julia Shepherd		+0.1
39	16-23	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
40	16-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+0.0
41	16-25	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.8
2	1-1	NIAGRA	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
3	1-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+0.8
4	1-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.8
5	1-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+0.7
6	1-5	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.6
7	2-5	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.4
8	3-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Ava Carney	blk Natasa Ljubicic	+0.7
9	3-6	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
10	4-6	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.6
11	4-7	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.6
12	5-7	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.6
13	5-8	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.6
14	6-8	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.6
15	6-9	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.6
16	7-9	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.6
17	7-10	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Ashley Moreland		+0.6
18	8-10	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.6
19	8-11	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.6
20	9-11	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.6
21	9-12	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
22	10-12	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.7
23	10-13	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.7
24	11-13	MERCYH	NIAGRA×6	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+0.7
25	12-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Anna Logan	+1.1
26	13-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Anna Logan	+1.3
27	14-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Bad set	Aliyah Angelici		+1.6
28	15-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Kalyani Olive	+1.7
29	16-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×6	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+1.8
30	16-14	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+1.1
31	16-15	MERCYH	MERCYH	Bad set	Katelynn Rottman		+1.6
32	17-15	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Attack err	Payton Melin		+1.5
33	17-16	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+1.3
34	18-16	MERCYH	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Sole Rancy	set Noel Perkins	+1.6
35	19-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.1
36	20-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+1.9
37	20-17	NIAGRA	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.0
38	20-18	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Payton Lee		+1.7
39	20-19	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+2.0
40	20-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+2.2
41	21-20	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+2.1
42	22-20	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Team	+2.9
43	22-21	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
44	22-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+2.9
45	22-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+3.1
46	23-23	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MERCYH server		+2.5
47	23-24	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.1
48	23-25	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+3.3
Set 3
1	1-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.5
2	1-1	NIAGRA	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
3	1-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Anna Logan	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
4	1-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Ashley Moreland	+0.4
5	1-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Madison Miner	+0.3
6	2-4	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.3
7	2-5	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
8	3-5	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.3
9	4-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Natasa Ljubicic	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.4
10	4-6	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Ava Carney, Julia Shepherd	+0.3
11	5-6	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Natasa Ljubicic	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.3
12	5-7	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.3
13	5-8	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.4
14	6-8	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+0.3
15	7-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.4
16	7-9	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.4
17	7-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Ashley Moreland	+0.4
18	7-11	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Chloe Moreland	+0.3
19	8-11	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Noel Perkins	+0.2
20	8-12	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+0.3
21	9-12	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.2
22	9-13	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney	+0.3
23	10-13	MERCYH	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.3
24	11-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.4
25	12-13	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.5
26	12-14	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Ava Carney	+0.4
27	13-14	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.4
28	13-15	NIAGRA	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
29	13-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Team	+0.5
30	13-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Julia Shepherd	+0.4
31	14-17	MERCYH	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.3
32	15-17	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.5
33	16-17	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Bad set	Kalyani Olive		+0.6
34	16-18	NIAGRA	MERCYH×6	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
35	16-19	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Mia Mattingly, Sarah Barnum	+0.6
36	16-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.4
37	16-21	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Chloe Moreland	+0.3
38	16-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Mia Mattingly	+0.1
39	16-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Kill	Mya Comer	set Karlotta Kattai	+0.1
40	17-23	MERCYH	NIAGRA	Kill	Noel Perkins		+0.0
41	18-23	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.0
42	18-24	NIAGRA	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.1
43	18-25	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Chloe Moreland		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.